Voting behaviour Flashcards
What are the two most significant minority ethnic groups in elections
Blacks and hispanics
How strong was black support for the Ds in the 11 elections between 1980-2020
They always gave atleast 83% of the Ds
Which president was said to have a particular affinity with black americans during his presidency
Clinton
When was their loyal support especially useful
During the difficult period of his impeachment and trial
What impact did Obama being the first black presidential candidate have on black voting
The share of black people voting D rose from 88% in 2004 to 95% in 2008. Black turnout was also up, going to 13% of the electorate
What did black support fall back to in 2016 with Clinton
89%
Give a statistic to illustrate how hispanics are growing as a proportion of the pop
According to the 2000 census it formed 12% of the pop, but the 2010 figure put this at 16%
Why is the political importance of this change yet to show
Because they are are young demographic and some of them have not reached voting age
Give some states where Hispanics make up more than 25% of the pop
- California
- Nevada
- Arizona
- Texas
- New Mexico
Why can we not view hispanics as one monolithic voting block to the extent that we can with other ethnicities
Because they are from various groups such as Mexico, Cuba and Puerto Rico and this country of origin impacts the way they will vote
Why was Bush able to make a significant bid for the hispanic vote in 2000
- GWB speaks fluent Spanish
- His brother, Jeb, is married to a hispanic woman
Why can this bid be called successful
The R vote among hispanics increased significantly from 20% in 1996 to 31% in 2000 and then to 43% in 2004
What had this decreased back down to by 2016
It had gone down to 28%, with Clinton hold a 38 point lead among hispanic voters
Why did Trump’s 2016 campaign drive hispanic voters away
Due to his negative attitude towards mexican immigrants
What kind of nasty things did he say about Mexican immigrants
They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime, they’re rapists
What did he promise to do to keep Mexican immigrants out of the country
Build a wall
Why did the hispanic R vote increase in 2020
Due to the admiration among some hispanic men for the machismo image of Trump, a man’s man, and the successful if rather exaggerated link he made between the Ds, socialism and communism. His concerns that a Biden-Harris ticket was a path towards socialism resonated with many Cuban American and Venezuelan American voters who reside in Florida
Why is it surprising that religion is a deciding factor in US voting behaviour
Because there is a strict separation between church and state
What is religion closely linked to
The social and moral that divide the parties
What is Protestant Christianity linked to
The religious right, social conservativism and the bible belt
What is the bible belt
A line of southern states from Texas to southern and central Virginia
Give a statistic to show how Protestants are a staple support group for the Rs
Given the Rs between 54-62% of their votes in each of the last 6 presidential elections
Which group within protestant Christianity make an even greater difference to the R vote
Evangelical Christians
What was the particularly high vote share they lended to Trump in 2016
81%
Why can this not be solely attributed to Trump
It might have had more to do with antipathy towards Clinton than commitment to Trump
Why are SC nominations particularly important in gaining their vote
Because this group more than any other places a high premium on the appointment of strict constructionist judges who will hand down decisions in line with their conservative social agenda
How is the term ‘Christian evangelicans’ sometimes improperly used
It is necessary to distinguish between ‘evangelicals’, whose priorities are mainly spiritual, and ‘Christian nationalists’ who have political views. Many of those who pollsters refer to as evangelicals are better described as Christian nationalists
How dis Trump illustrate this distinction
He had little time for the practise of evangelical christianity while holding many of the beliefs of christian nationalism, like the promotion of religious symbolism in the public arena, and the promotion of policy that supports Christian beliefs. His brandishing of the Bible outside a Washington Church in June 2020 in order to make a political point, when he rarely if ever attends a place of worship illustrates this distinction
Give some statistics to show how Biden did surprisingly well among evangelical voters considering he was a D president
He got nearly 1/4 of the vote nationwide
In Michigan he won 29% of the E vote
He won just 14% of white evangelicals but in doing so still managed to nearly triple Clintonn’s figure of 5% in 2016
Why is a swing in white evangelical voters particularly important
Because they make up 1/3 of all voters in Virginia, which is a crucial swing state
What was the reason for Biden’s success among evangelicals
Had a well planned series of ads playing of Christian radio stations throughout the campaign
They appeared more convinced by Biden’s compassionate tones and devout faith than Trump’s Bible waving in Washington as a photo opportunity
Some young evangelicals were opposed to Trump
Biden deliberately employed evangelical language in an attempt to connect with them
Which party did Catholics traditionally lend their support to
The Ds
Why?
Due to its strong links to European Catholicism among the immigrant communities, especially among Irish Americans in the Northeast
When did D support among Catholics begin to wane
The 1970s
Why
Because of its support for abortion. Devout Catholics are therefore drawn to the Rs based on this issue
Why can this swing towards the Rs not be called a major one
Because the Ds have still won the catholic vote in 4 of the last 6 presidential elections
Why was 2016 an especially disappointing vote in terms of the Catholic vote share for the Ds`
Only 45% voted D - the lowest figure in a two party contest since 1984
How did this improve in 2020
Biden turned a 4 point deficit into a 5 point lead
Why do trends among Jewish and Muslim voters matter less than the previous two religiions discussed
Because they make up a smaller proportion of the pop
Which party do Jews and Muslims generally support
The Ds
What % of Jewish voters supported Biden in 2020
68%
What % of Muslim voters supported Biden in 2020
64%
Why does this high Muslim vote not necessarily mean that they liked Biden
- Trump had instigated a travel ban affecting 7 majority Muslim countries
- In a 2016 interview he said ‘I think Islam hates us’
Make the case that this high Muslim vote was not simply born out of a negative reaction to Trump
- In 2015, Trump said ‘I love the Muslims, I think they’re great people’. Although even with this said, Muslims could not have been sure where they stood with Trump due to his subsequent actions and comments
- ## Muslims have traditionally favoured the Ds so this was not a break from usual trends
What did 2020 exit polls say about the trend between frequency of attendance at religious service and party support
61% of those who said they attended worship at least weekly said they voted for Trump, versus 37% who said they voted for Biden. Those who worshipped at least once monthly favoured Biden over Trump 54%-45%
What does the trend between religious practise and voting behaviour link to
The stance of the parties on social and moral issues
Those with no religious affiliation is a growing segment of the US electorate. In which areas is atheism growing in particular?
Amongst younger, urban voters
Where does the allegiance generally lie for atheistic voters
The Ds
Give some statistics to prove that this was the case in 2020
72% backed Biden over Trump
Explain the fact that atheists are more likely to support the Ds
Probably best explained by the association between the Rs and the more conservative sections of the christian churches, and their desire to bring more aspects of the christian faith into public life. This includes reintroducing prayers into state run schools, something opposed by most secularists who wish to maintain the separation of church and state
Give a statistic to prove that women are more likely to vote for the D party than men
In 9 out of the 10 presidential elections between 1964 and 2000, women were significantly more supportive of the D candidate, a trend that has continued into the 21st century. This is referred to as the gender gap
What is the gender gap
The gap between the support given to a candidate by women and the support given to the same candidate by men
What was the gender gap for Trump in 2016 and 2020
11 points - with 53% of men and 42% of women voting for Trump in 2020
Why was this significant
Because it was the widest gender gap for an R candidate for over half a century
What was the gender gap for Biden
It was even wider at 12 points, with 57% of women and 45% of men voting for him
Why was his VP pick crucial in gaining the female vote
Because he selected a woman
What is the reason for the gender gap between the two parties
Policy differences between the two main parties. In five major policy areas, abortion, law and order, gun control, defence spending and women’s rights, the Ds tend to take positions that are more favoured by women
They also tend to have a higher number of high profile female politicians
Give some examples of D policy positions that are favoured by women
- Pro choice on abortion
- Tend to favour lower levels of defence spending
- Oppose capital punishment
- Support gun control
- Made a close but unsuccesful attempt for an equal rights amendment to the constitution protecting the civil rights of women
Give some examples of high profile female politicians within the D party
- Clinton
- Speaker Pelosi
- First ever female VP Harris
Explain the growing gap for R candidates seen under Trump
Some of the explanation lies in his attitude and treatment of women. This became prominent in the primaries, when he made rude remarks about fellow R candidate Carly Fiorina as well as the political commentator Megyn Kelly. Controversry also arose in the GE campaign where just a month before election day a videotape was released into the public domain showing Trump bragging in vulgar terms about kissing, groping and trying to have sex with different women - even women he knew to be married. ‘When your a star, they let you do it. They let you do anything’
Give some statistic to prove that the drop in female voting for the Rs was actually surprisingly low following these comments and actions
Support only fell by 3% from the 2012 R tally. And in 2020 his support among women actually increased by 1%
Why were these results still bad despite the drop off not seeming too harsh
Both results are still record lows for Rs and represent figures not seen since 1964
Who do those who have never attended college or university tends to support
The Rs
Who do those who have graduated from college or uni with at least a bachelors give the majority of their votes too
The Ds
Give some statistics to prove that we must connsider all of these factors (race, education, gender and religion) at the same time rather than in isolation when looking at voting behaviour
While 54% of non college educated voters went Trump in 2020, this increased to 67% among white non college educated voters and then 70% among non college educated voters who were white and male
Give some statistics to prove how Biden made inroads into Trump’s large scale support from white, non college educated men in 2020
While Clinton received the support of only 26% of these men in 2016 this rose to 35% by 2020. Biden made especially significant gains amongst these groups in key battleground states and this was crucial in in the Ds winning back these states and therefore the presidency
What were these two states
Wisconsin and Michigan
How much did Biden increase the vote share among these men in Wisconsin compared to 2016
26% to 35%
What about in Michigan
From 24% to 34%
What proportion of the US pop are white?
60%
What proportion of the US pop are black
13%
What proportion of the US pop are hispanic
18%
When did the trend that white voters favour the R candidates begin
1968
Why do white voters tend to support the Rs
R policies tend to appeal to white voters regardless of their socioeconomic status. Many of them believe that the Rs will govern in their best interests (rational choice theory). These white voters are bothered by the progressive agenda of the Ds which they equate with an overbearing state and excessive taxation
Which one of Trump’s campaign slogans polled well with white voters
MAGA
Give some statistics that display how well Trump did with whites in 2016
He achieved 57% of the white vote compared to Clinton’s 37%
The margin was 20% in 2016. What was it reduced down to by 2020?
17%
Why was this white swing crucial in 2020
Many of those who switched resided in swing states and played a key role in Biden defeating Trump in these states
What was surprising about this swing in 2020
That many of those who switched to the Ds were men, which in theory would have made them more likely to be committed R voters
How did Trump cancel out Biden eating into the margin of the white vote enjoyed by the Rs
Because Trump did the same in relation to the minority vote margin the Ds enjoy
Give some statistics to prove that
Although the D share of black votes remained high at 75%, this was also the lowest in a presidential election since 2004
Trump increased his share of the black vote from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020
Did this shift in black support for Trump among blacks come from men or womeen
Men
Explain this uptick in black, particularly black male, support for Trump in 2020
- A ‘Black Voices for Trump’ campaign repeatedly and falsely claimed that Biden had called young black men ‘super predators’
- Some support from the black community stemmed from voters who thought he was more likely to bring about economic prosperity and financial security
Trump also made inroads into the latino community. In which two states in particular did this happen
Florida and Texas
Give some statistics to show how Trump performed well among latino voters in 2020
Increased his share of the latino vote by 3% compared to 2016
The Latino D margin of 33% was the lowest since the 2004 election
What two things were these latino gains by Trump offset by
- The loss of white voters
- Increased black turnout
Why was the increased Hispanic support for Trump in Florida especially imoortant
He increased his share of the hispanic vote in Florida by 11% and this was a crucial factor in the state remaining red
What important support group for Trump in 2016 softened their support for him in 2020
Evangelicals and Catholics
Why can it be said that he actually did alot for these groups in terms of the importance they place on SC appointments
He gave them three SC justices and many more in the lower federal courts
