venn diagrams + set notation etc ( chapter 2) (A level book ) Flashcards
A and B are independent
A U B = P(A) * P(B)
NOTE: independent probabilities DO NOT HAVE TO ADD TO 1
de morgans law
(A n B)’ = A’ U B’
Harder question that caught me out !
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note
first find the intersection probabilities by multiply each event together, and then take these intersection probabilites away from the whole probability
eg if prob of B is said to be 0.5 and C is 0.7 and they are independent, then B n C is 0.5 *0.7
now take it away from each
0.7 - (0.5*0.7 ) , 0.5 - (0.7 * 0.5)
“O” with a dash in it
emptty set
another note
take probabilities away from venn diagrams in order of priority- eg take all probabilities away from the centre (if its 3 circles) and then take take all probabilites away form each individual intersection
NOTE:
DO NOT
forget the area outside of the venn diagram
AND
when it asks for an “and probability” include EVERYTHING that is meant to be added on
probability of A U B ?
P(A) + P(B) - P (A n B)
p( A’ n B’)
1 - (all the probabilites in the diagram )
conditional probability for idnependent events
p (A/B)= P (A/B’)
P(B/A)=P(B/A’)=P(B)
Solve problems using a restricted sample space
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another important note
p( A’)
Make sure to include the probabilities OTUSIDE the box aswell
interms of conditional probability, how do you know if something is statistically independent?
if P (A/B)= A
find the probability of B/C
( probability of B occuring given that C has to occur first)
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1/ 9
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A/ B’
given that B does not occur ,find the probability that A ocurs
A (without the intersection )/ A + (B doesnt occur) + outside value
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzYTgntOZsI&list=PLIy0I0VLj3aiBiiKqyP1bSXjk18R5SAlX&index=9
0:39
Note
to get the probabilites of the intersections: multiply the ORIGINAL probabilities together !
watch this to get an idea of how to do the notation A/B’
etc… and how to draw venn diagrams whilst substracting the right probabilities
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzTLWX6W6Yc&list=PLIy0I0VLj3aiBiiKqyP1bSXjk18R5SAlX&index=10
how to work out the probability of A n B when given A’ n B’ (value outside of the box)
if you dont know the probability of A n B
and you are given P(A) and P(B)
work out P (A U B) –> 1 - p (A’ n B’ (the value outside the box ) )
use p (A n B ) = P(A) + P (B)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTMv_FWDtrI&list=PLIy0I0VLj3aiBiiKqyP1bSXjk18R5SAlX&index=12
( esepecially watch the bit on porbability of kayley losing and john winning
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dont forget to include ALL of the probabilities
(add the top one to the bottom one to ensure that you have ALL of them )
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6c
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https: //www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPHhjRRL2SY&list=PLIy0I0VLj3aguQ_C2YTR-ZiSpGl0Xk6cu&index=11
1: 44
look at 7b ii
( take note of all the probabilities )
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“comment on the effectiveness of this drug test ?
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- state the probabitiy of false positives etc..
state the obvious: “ From the data in the question, the test fails to find 10% of the people with the condition (since it has a 0.1 chance of producing a negative result when a person has the condition)”
conclusion :
This means that if the test was used on the entire population, 10% of the people with the condition would not be identified and over one third of the people with a positive result would actually not have the condition.
i have now commented on the effectiveness
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look at “c”
(chances of being late by bus or car/ chances of being late as awhole (do not add the probability of being late by bus or car)