Venezuela Flashcards
What is currently happening in Venezuela overall
Food and medicine shortages Millions fleeing the country Protests leading to numerous deaths Hundreds detained Humanitarian aid from US blocked by Maduro All crossings in Brazil closed Hyperinflation
How many people have fled Venezuela since 2015
3 million
How many people died in protests in early 2019
At least 40, no exact number recorded
How many people were detained on January 23rd
696 - highest in 20 years
Why won’t maduro accept humanitarian aid
Anti American
Claims Venezuelans are not beggars
How high is hyperinflation in Venezuela
Differing reports and no official statistics for 2019, between 800000 and 2 million
What are overall causes of the Venezuelan crisis
Chavez death Oil price plummeted Unrestrained spending during oil boom led to deficit and economic spiral Maduro corruption Two people claiming presidency
When did Chavez die
2013
Why did Chavez’s death negatively impact Venezuela
He was a charismatic and popular leader, mostly due to his social welfare programmes
Explain the impact of the oil industry on Venezuela
Nationalisation occurred under Chavez in 1999
1998-2008 high spike from under $25 a barrel to over $160
Used to fund food subsidies, education and health care programmes -unemployment halved + income per capita doubled
2008 fell to $53, the rose to $110, hovered between $100-$125
2014 drop in oil prices -$35 a barrel by 2016
98% of exports were oil - huge dependency
December Venezuela central bank confirmed recession due to oil prices
What caused the initial rise and fall and then rise of oil prices
1998-2008 rise - rapidly increasing demands for energy in developing countries like India and China
Organisation of petroleum exporting countries (OPEC) production cuts
2008- global recession reduced demand for energy
2009 economies began to recover, increasing demand
What caused the 2014 oil price drop
China’s rapid growth slowed and therefore so did its demand for oil - most populated country- massive implications
Other developing countries like Brazil and India also less demand
Lower demand = lower costs
During boom US + Canada began extracting more oil, reducing imports
What were the effects of the 2014 recession on the country
Food shortages - protests - 43 killed in 3 months
2014 inflation 63% -highest in America’s
Cuts in public spending- difficult for poor to access food and medicine
2015-16 food shortages so severe people lost on average 19 pounds
What corruption occurred during the crisis
2015 legislative elections opposition 2/3 supermajority in National Assembly in response Maduro stacked Supreme Court with loyal judges
Court blocked 4 newly elected lawmakers joining assembly days before they were due to be sworn in + banned opposition leader from elections
2017 sham election of constitutional assembly- US +Spain didn’t recognise elections- but sworn in on August 4th anyway
Declared legislative superiority over assembly - essentially dissolved it
2018 Maduro re-elected-us state anti democratic before voting
Guaido claimed presidency citing emergency constitutional powers
Former intelligence chief Carvajal called out inner circle for corruption
What impact has the us had on Venezuela and how has Venezuela responded
Decried Maduro re-election unfair and anti democratic
Supported Guaido’s claim - Maduro responded by cutting ties and ordering all US diplomats to leave Venezuela within 72 hours
US SofS Pompeo - US will abide by Guaidos directive to maintain ties
Humanitarian aid arrived at Columbia’s border but was blocked
February 21st Brazil border closed to prevent US entry - next day at least 2 civilians dies when security forces fired on protesters at border
Trump’s ultimatum to military- side with opposition or face consequences
What are further political causes of the crisis
Socialist government culture makes the mobilisation of civil society actors harder -Alvarez “society prefers living off government transfers of oil rents instead of deservedly enjoying the fruits of productive work”
Authoritarianism obstructs emergence of a robust civil society needed for democracy
Armed socialist pro gov groups (collectivos)violence to enforce regime
Conflict between Supreme Court and National Assembly- effectively took control of Court - rose number from 20-32 packed with loyalists - established dictatorial regime
What conflict is occurring between the executive and National Assembly, influencing the crisis
2015 -opposition controlled assembly- first time since 1999
Recall referendum on Maduro suppressed+suspended by pro Maduro national electoral council, many opposition politicians arrested
Hostile NA - Maduro rules by SC backed decree to deal with current economic crisis -despite exacerbating the situation
Opposition parties boycotted 2018 election when leaders jailed or fled
“Illegitimate” election-parties recognise NA head Guaido as president
Power limited by creation of national constituent assembly in 2017 made up of government loyalists
What has the general US stance been regarding Venezuela
Involvement directed at overthrowing regime not guaranteeing democracy
Funding of opposition through US agency for international development
Support of Carmona’s coup-failure linked to international disengagement with crisis
Opposition fear of losing US backing encourages aggressive resistance, deepening internal divisions
Trump administration call for military action-further violence+polarisation
US campaign to recognise Guaido - retaliation from Russia+China
How have China, Russia and Iran further impacted the crisis
Purchase of oil, capital injections and weapons provisions have prolonged Maduro government
US sanctions encourage multilateral relations
China provides riot control weapons used by bolivarian national guard
Russia exercises ideological war-military deployments of the coast
What impact have transnational, international and non government organisations had
Carter centre in Venezuela, UN development programme and organisation of American states all active in Venezuela- attempts to provide peaceful mediation
Conditions of aid frequently rejected
US propositions in OAS seen by LA leaders as legitimising its influence
US funding NGOs- international funding of NGOs+ human rights organisations made illegal in 2010-crisis deepened-won’t accept US aid
Who was the former intelligence chief who stated there was widespread corruption in Maduro‘s inner circle
Carjaval
