Valuation Flashcards
What are the 3 major valuation methodologies?
Public Company Comparables (Public Comps), Precedent Transactions and the
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.
Public Comps and Precedent Transactions are examples of relative valuation (based on market values), while the DCF is intrinsic valuation (based on cash flows).
Can you walk me through how you use Public Comps and Precedent
Transactions?
First, you select the companies and transactions based on criteria such as
industry, financial metrics, geography, and timing (for precedent transactions).
Then, you determine the appropriate metrics and multiples for each set – for
example, revenue, revenue growth, EBITDA, EBITDA margins, and revenue and EBITDA multiples – and you calculate them for all the companies and
transactions.
Next, you calculate the minimum, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and maximum for each valuation multiple in the set.
Finally, you apply those numbers to the financial metrics for the company you’re analyzing to estimate the potential range for its valuation. For example, if the company you’re valuing has $100 million in EBITDA and the
median EBITDA multiple of the set is 7x, its implied Enterprise Value is $700
million based on that. You would then calculate its value at other multiples in
this range.
How do you select Comparable Companies or Precedent Transactions?
The 3 main criteria for selecting companies and transactions:
1. Industry classification
2. Financial criteria (Revenue, EBITDA, etc.)
3. Geography
For Precedent Transactions, you also limit the set based on date and often focus
on transactions within the past 1-2 years.
The most important factor is industry – that is always used to screen for companies/transactions, and the rest may or may not be used depending on how specific you want to be.
Here are a few examples:
* Comparable Company Screen: Oil & gas producers with market caps
over $5 billion.
* Comparable Company Screen: Digital media companies with over $100
million in revenue.
- Precedent Transaction Screen: Airline M&A transactions over the past 2 years involving sellers with over $1 billion in revenue.
- Precedent Transaction Screen: Retail M&A transactions over the past year
For Public Comps, you calculate Equity Value and Enterprise Value for use
in multiples based on companies’ share prices and share counts… but what about for Precedent Transactions? How do you calculate multiples there?
They should be based on the purchase price of the company at the time of the
deal announcement.
For example, a seller’s current share price is $40.00 and it has 10 million shares
outstanding. The buyer announces that it will pay $50.00 per share for the seller.
The seller’s Equity Value in this case, in the context of the transaction, would be
$50.00 * 10 million shares, or $500 million. And then you would calculate its
Enterprise Value the normal way: subtract cash, add debt, and so on.
You only care about what the offer price was at the initial deal announcement.
You never look at the company’s value prior to the deal being announced.
How would you value an apple tree?
The same way you would value a company: by looking at what comparable
apple trees are worth (relative valuation) and the present value of the apple
tree’s cash flows (intrinsic valuation). Yes, you could build a DCF for anything –
even an apple tree.
When is a DCF useful? When is it not so useful?
A DCF is best when the
1) company is large, mature
2) has stable and predictable cash flows (think: Fortune 500 companies in “boring” industries). Your far-inthe-future assumptions will generally be more accurate there
3) DCF is less subject to market price variations
A DCF is not as useful if the company has unstable or unpredictable cash flows
(tech start-up) or when Debt and Operating Assets and Liabilities serve
fundamentally different roles (ex: Banks and Insurance Firms – see the industry specific guides for more).
What other Valuation methodologies are there?
- Liquidation Valuation – Valuing a company’s Assets, assuming they are sold off and then subtracting Liabilities to determine how much capital, if any, equity investors receive.
- LBO Analysis –Determining how much a PE firm could pay for a company to hit a “target” IRR, usually in the 20-25% range.
- Sum of the Parts – Valuing each division of a company separately and
adding them together at the end. - M&A Premiums Analysis – Analyzing M&A deals and figuring out the premium that each buyer paid, and using this to establish what your company is worth.
- Future Share Price Analysis – Projecting a company’s share price based on the P / E multiples of the public company comparables and then discounting
it back to its present value.
When is a Liquidation Valuation useful?
It’s most common in bankruptcy scenarios and is used to see whether or not shareholders will receive anything after the company’s Liabilities have been paid off with the proceeds from selling all its Assets. It is often used to advise struggling businesses on whether it’s better to sell off Assets separately or to sell 100% of the company.
Enterprise Value/EBIT used for? means?
Profitability multiple
Used for: many types of companies, especially those where CapEx is more important because includes impact from D&A
Means: ~co. value (prop) income from business operations
TEV/EBITDA used for? means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: many companies, most useful when CapEx and D&A not as important
Means: ~ co. value (prop) operational cash flow
P/E? Used for? Means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: many types of companies, most relevant for banks and financial institutions bc distorted by non-cash charges, capital structure, tax rates
Means: ~ co. value (prop) after tax earnings
Equity Value / Levered FCF? Used for? Means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: not very common bc complicated to calculate and may produce wildly different numbers depending on capital structure
Means: most accurate measure of co. value (prop) true cash flow
TEV / FCF used for? Means?
Profitability Multiple
Used for: when CapEx or changes in Operational Assets and Liabilities (ex: Deferred Revenue) have a big impact, critical in DCFs
Means: co. value (prop) true cash flow while capital structure neutral
Public Comps Advantages/Disadvantages?
Advantages:
- based on real data opposed to future assumptions
Disadvantages:
- there may not be true comparable companies
- less accurate for thinly traded stocks or volatile companies
Precedent Transactions Advantages/Disadvantages?
Advantages:
- based on what real companies have actually paid for other companies (not based on future assumptions)
Disadvantages:
- there may not be true comparable transactions
- data can be spotty, especially for private transactions
DCF Advantages/Disadvantages?
Advantages:
- not subject to market fluctuations
- theoretically sound since it’s based on ability to generate cash flow
Disadvantages:
- subject to far in the future assumptions
- less useful for fast-growing, unpredictable companies
What multiples would you use for a company that is not profitable?
TEV/Revenue
TEV/EBITDA
Price/Sales = current stock price/sales per share (sales per share = total sales/outstanding shares)
You have 500 EBITDA, trading at 12x EBITDA, you made 50 in interest payments, 50% tax, 10% interest. What’s the EV? Whats the Eq?
TBD, my answer not sure it’s right
Equity Value = 500 EBITDA * 12 = 6000
Enterprise Value =
Equity Value
+ Debt
- Cash
= 6000 + 500 debt
= 6500
Discuss a hypothetical subscription company with a lot of deferred revenue. How does that impact the valuation (acknowledged there is no correct answer. They just wanted to see your thinking process and your view
TBD
You’re advising a client on a buy-side deal. What kind of analysis do you need to conduct on targets?
Trying to get you to say both quantitative valuation analysis and also qualitative (does the deal make sense)
Why would two comparable companies be trading at 10x EBITDA versus 20x EBITDA multiples?
TBD
market mismatch to EBITDA multiples
- one company could have just had an earnings call where they beat analysts’ expectations, increasing their share price and Equity Value
- one company could have internally developed assets like patents that can’t be included on their book value, but are factored in by the market with an increased Equity Value
What is an LBO high level and why is it consider the floor valuation?
You assume a PE company acquires a company and needs to generate an internal rate of return (IRR) such as 15-30%, and work backwards to calculate how much they could potentially pay to achieve that return. It’s a variation of DCF analysis because you still value the firm via its future cash flows, but those cash flows are used to pay off leverage.
It’s considered a floor valuation because it’s the minimum a PE firm will pay for a company - they are incentivized to minimize their entry multiple to maximize their IRR.
If they are more accurate, why are Free Cash Flow multiples less common than EBIT and EBITDA multiples?
1) FCF multiples take more time to calculate, and you have to go through the company’s financial statements in detail.
2) they may not be standardized because companies include very different items in the Cash Flow from Operations section of their CF.
EBIT/EBITDA multiples are more common for
1) convenience
2) comparability
When would you use a Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation?
This is typically used with conglomerates like General Electric, companies that have completely different, unrelated divisions.
If you have a plastics, entertainment, and energy division you should NOT use the same set of comparable companies and precedent transactions for the entire company.
Instead, you should use different sets for each division, value each one separately, then add the individual valuations together for a Total Value.
When do you use an LBO analysis as part of your valuation?
You use this whenever you’re analyzing a Leveraged Buyout, but it is used to “set a floor” on the company’s value and determine the minimum amount a PE firm could pay to achieve its targeted returns.
You often see it used when both strategics (normal companies) and financial sponsors (PE firms) are competing to buy the same company, and you want to determine the potential price if a PE firm were to acquire a company.
How do you apply valuation methodologies to value a company?
You present valuation in a “Football Field” graph with a range of minimum to maximum, showing the interquartile range and median of each set (2-3 years of comps and the transactions, for each different multiple used) and then multiply by the relevant metrics for the company you’re analyzing.
For public companies, you will also work backwards to calculate the Equity Value and implied share price.
What are EBIT and EBITDA, and how do you calculate them? How are they different?
EBIT is a company’s Operating Income on its IS. It includes COGS, Operating Expenses, and non-cash expenses like D&A and therefore indirectly reflects a company’s CapEx.
EBITDA is EBIT + D&A. The idea of EBITDA is to move closer to a company’s “cash flow” by including D&A impact, but an issue bc you’re ignoring CapEx.
How do you calculated Unlevered FCF and Levered FCF?
Unlevered FCF =
EBIT * (1-Tax Rate)
+ D&A
- Change in Operating Working Capital
- CapEx
Unlevered FCF excludes net income expense, and mandatory debt repayments.
Levered FCF =
Net Income
+ D&A
- Change in Operating Working Capital
- CapEx
- Mandatory Repayments
What are the most common valuation multiples? What do they mean?
1) TEV/Revenue = how valuable a company is to its overall sales
2) TEV/EBITDA = how valuable a company is relative to its approximate cash flow
3) TEV/EBIT = how valuable a company is relative to its operating income (pre-tax profit it receives from business operations)
4) P/E = price per share/earnings per share, how valuable a company is relative to its after-tax profits, inclusive of net income expense and other non-core business activities
Other multiples include
* P/BV = price per share / book value per share, not terribly meaningful for most companies
* EV/Unlevered FCF = closer to true cash flow than EV/EBITDA but harder to calculate
* EqV/Levered FCF = even closer to true cash flow but influenced by capital structure and time-consuming
How are the key operating metrics and valuation metrics correlated? In other words, what might explain a higher or lower EV/EBITDA multiple?
1) Usually there is a correlation between growth and valuation multiples. If one company is growing revenue or EBITDA more quickly, its multiples may be higher as well.
2) Math component = actual numerator or denominator differences.
3) real world factors.
Why can’t you use EqV/EBITDA as a multiple rather than TEV/EBITDA?
If a profitability metric includes net interest expense, it is only available to Equity Investors. Excluding this impact means the metric is available to ALL investors in the company.
Equity Value is available to only equity investors, while EBITDA is available to all investors, so it’s an apple-to-oranges comparison.
What would you use with FCF multiples, EV or EqV?
Unlevered FCF = EV
Levered FCF = EqV
Why does Warren Buffet prefer EBIT multiples to EBITDA multiples?
Dislikes EBITDA because it hides the impact of CapEx and disguises how much cash they truly require to operate.
EBIT doesn’t directly show CapEx, but includes D which is linked to CapEx.
What are some problems with EBITDA and EBITDA multiples? If there are so many problems, why do we still use it?
Problems with EBITDA approximation of cash flow
1) hides debt principal and interest
2) hides CapEx and D&A impact
3) ignores working capital requirements (which can be large)
4) companies are inconsistent with what they “add back”, so comparability is warped
Used
1) for convenience, has become a standard over time
2) for comparability, better for comparing than other metrics
EV/EBIT, EV/EBITDA, and P/E multiples all measure a company’s profitability. What’s the difference, and how do you use each one?
P/E depends on capital structure, while EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA do not.
You can use P/E in industries where the capital structure is similar, like banks or insurance.
EV/EBIT includes D&A impact, while EV/EBITDA does not. EBIT multiples more common in industries with high D&A, where CapEx and fixed assets are important (like Industrials). EBITDA multiples are more common where D&A is low and CapEx/fixed assets are less important (tech companies).
Could EV/EBITDA ever be higher than EV/EBIT
No.
D&A is always zero or positive. Therefore EBIT will always be equal or smaller than EBITDA. An EBITDA multiple with the same EV will always be equal or smaller than the corresponding EBIT multiple.
Examples of industry-specific multiples?
Industrials example:
EV/EBITDAR for Airlines (+Rental expense)
Oil & Gas:
EV/EBITDAX (+Exploration expense)
Tech:
EV/Unique Visitors
Would an LBO or DCF produce a higher valuation?
Technically it could go either way, but in most cases an LBO will give you a lower valuation.
With an LBO you receive no cash flows between Year 1 and the final year – you only get value out of its final year.
With a DCF, by contrast, you include FCF during the period and the terminal value, so values tend to be higher.
Note: unlike a DCF, a LBO model does not give a specific valuation. Instead you set a desired IRR and back-solve for how much you could pay for the company (the valuation) based on that.
When would a Liquidation Valuation produce the highest value?
This is unusual, but could happen if a company has substantial hard assets but the market is severely undervaluing it (such as earnings miss of cyclicality).
As a result, the Comps and Precedent Transaction would likely produce lower values.
Why are Public Comps and Precedent Transactions sometimes viewed as “more reliable” than a DCF?
Because they’re based on real market data, as opposed to far-in-the-future assumptions.
However, even in Public Comps & Precedent Transactions you do use future assumptions for immediate forward years.
Also , you might not have good or comparable data for these, in which case a DCF might produce better results.
Flaws of Public Company Comparables?
1) no company is 100% comparable to another company
2) the stock market is “emotional” - your multiples may be dramatically higher or lower depending on the market’s movements
3) share prices for small companies with thinly traded stocks may not reflect their full value
What is a situation in which Precedent Transactions actually give a lower valuation than Comparable Companies?
This would be unusual, but could happen if there is a substantial mismatch between the M&A market and public market. This could happen if no public companies have been acquired recently, or lots of private companies have been acquired for smaller valuations.
What are flaws of Precedent Transactions?
1) past transactions are rarely 100% comparable (transaction structure, size of company, and market sentiment all make a huge impact)
2) data on precedent transactions is generally more difficult to find than for public company comparables, especially for small private companies
How would you present valuation methodologies to a company or its investors? What do you use it for?
You would present valuation as a Football Field charge with an implied range with each methodology.
You could use valuation for
1) Pitch Books & Client Presentations - telling companies what you think they’re worth, updates to clients
2) Parts of Other Models (Defense analyses, merger models, DCF, LBO)
3) Fairness Opinions - right before a deal with a public seller closes, a financial advisor creates a “Fairness Opinion” that justifies the acquisition price and directly estimates the company’s valuation
Why would a company with similar growth and profitability to its Comparable companies be valued at a premium?
Multiple Reasons
1) company reported earnings well above analyst expectations and stock price has risen in response
2) has some type of competitive advantage not reflected in its financials, such as key patent or IP
3) just won a favorable ruling in a lawsuit
4) market leader in its industry (greater market share than its competitors)