US elections and voting behaviour Flashcards
frequency of campaigns
campaigning for pres starts after mid terms- president seeking 2nd term has eye on policies’ impacts
e.g. COVID, Trump reluctancy for national lockdown due to fears about economic impacts of shutdown (economy crucial for reelection)
electoral systems (not EC)
nearly all majoritarian, but based on the state
e.g. Georgia requires top two election for senate. if not top 50%, renoff 8 weeks later between top two, such as in jan 2021
individuality of campaigns
parties play a role, but possible to be pres with enough money and public profile.
key qualities of candidate
e.g. Iowa senator Joni Erst “Washington is full of big spenders, lets make em squeal” 2014 ad (Iowa large agricultural sector)
money in campaigns
$14b total spent in 2020 election
e.g. Bernie Sanders pulled $46m in donations in just Feb 2020- from 2.2m individual donors
however doesn’t guarantee result: Clinton outspent Trump 2020
selection and nomination of candidates
seek delegates pledged to vote for particular candidate at convention.
primaries mainly party’s core voters , so candidates veer left or right to get votes.
contests between same party e.g. Trump 2016 primaries attatched unflattering labels to rivals (Lyin’ Ted- Ted Cruz)
nature of primaries and caucuses
Closed Primary: pre-registered voters to party participate (NY)
Open Primary: all registered voters vote in any primary but only 1 (Georgia)
Semi: pre-registered vote in that party’s primary, but non-affiliated choose which to participate in
timings of primaries and caucuses
‘Super Tuesday’- 2020 3rd March- 14 D primaries and between them delegated over 1/3 of delegates
invisible primaries in the lead up: potential candidates announce intention to run.
may move primaries closer to beginning to influence outcome e.g. 2020 California from June to March
advantages of primaries and caucuses
- outsiders run for major office and build up momentum e.g. Trump
- staggered length= wide range of states can influence outcome
- opps for participation- ordinary voters choose candidate (open/closed)
disadvantages of primaries and caucuses
- focus on candidate not party- shows divisions in party (e.g Lyin Ted)
- adds to overall cost and length- ‘voter fatigue’. later states less of a role in influencing outcome
- outsiders lack DC connections necessary so insiders often win e.g. Biden
national nominating conventions
-unites divided party as former rivals line up to endorse winner
-momentum to candidate’s campaign vie publicity. usually followed by increase in poll ratings
electoral college
-no of votes per state depend on size of congressional delegation
-DC has 3
-Maine and Nebraska- winner of each district 1 ECV and statewide winner 2
-winner of popular vote could lose EC
-close final results e.g. Biden 2020 306-232. down to slim wins in some states (20,000 in Wisconsin)
faithless electors
electors ppledged to vote but not legally bound- can disregard
e.g. 7 in 2016, but has never swayed an election’s outcome
advantages of EC
- reflects federal nature of US- must campaign to range of states
- faithless electors never affected outcome- none from 2008/12/20.
- clear winner- not shared proportionally
disadvantages of EC
- winner of popular vote fail to be elected- Gore 2000
- smaller states overrepped e.g. Cali 1 per 712,000, Wyoming 1 per 195,000
- faithless electors threat to democratic process- 2016, 7 of them
incumbency (factor affecting election outcome)
2018 90% incumbents who re-run were victorious. name recognition, boast achievements
however, no guarantee e.g. 2018 4 incumbent Ds and 1R lost re-election- money poured into these seats e.g. Florida $118m spent