US elections and voting behaviour

Question 1

frequency of campaigns

Answer 1

campaigning for pres starts after mid terms- president seeking 2nd term has eye on policies’ impacts
e.g. COVID, Trump reluctancy for national lockdown due to fears about economic impacts of shutdown (economy crucial for reelection)

Question 2

electoral systems (not EC)

Answer 2

nearly all majoritarian, but based on the state
e.g. Georgia requires top two election for senate. if not top 50%, renoff 8 weeks later between top two, such as in jan 2021

Question 3

individuality of campaigns

Answer 3

parties play a role, but possible to be pres with enough money and public profile.
key qualities of candidate
e.g. Iowa senator Joni Erst “Washington is full of big spenders, lets make em squeal” 2014 ad (Iowa large agricultural sector)

Question 4

money in campaigns

Answer 4

$14b total spent in 2020 election
e.g. Bernie Sanders pulled $46m in donations in just Feb 2020- from 2.2m individual donors
however doesn’t guarantee result: Clinton outspent Trump 2020

Question 5

selection and nomination of candidates

Answer 5

seek delegates pledged to vote for particular candidate at convention.
primaries mainly party’s core voters , so candidates veer left or right to get votes.
contests between same party e.g. Trump 2016 primaries attatched unflattering labels to rivals (Lyin’ Ted- Ted Cruz)

Question 6

nature of primaries and caucuses

Answer 6

Closed Primary: pre-registered voters to party participate (NY)
Open Primary: all registered voters vote in any primary but only 1 (Georgia)
Semi: pre-registered vote in that party’s primary, but non-affiliated choose which to participate in

Question 7

timings of primaries and caucuses

Answer 7

‘Super Tuesday’- 2020 3rd March- 14 D primaries and between them delegated over 1/3 of delegates
invisible primaries in the lead up: potential candidates announce intention to run.
may move primaries closer to beginning to influence outcome e.g. 2020 California from June to March

Question 8

advantages of primaries and caucuses

Answer 8

1. outsiders run for major office and build up momentum e.g. Trump
2. staggered length= wide range of states can influence outcome
3. opps for participation- ordinary voters choose candidate (open/closed)

Question 9

disadvantages of primaries and caucuses

Answer 9

1. focus on candidate not party- shows divisions in party (e.g Lyin Ted)
2. adds to overall cost and length- ‘voter fatigue’. later states less of a role in influencing outcome
3. outsiders lack DC connections necessary so insiders often win e.g. Biden

Question 10

national nominating conventions

Answer 10

-unites divided party as former rivals line up to endorse winner
-momentum to candidate’s campaign vie publicity. usually followed by increase in poll ratings

Question 11

electoral college

Answer 11

-no of votes per state depend on size of congressional delegation
-DC has 3
-Maine and Nebraska- winner of each district 1 ECV and statewide winner 2
-winner of popular vote could lose EC
-close final results e.g. Biden 2020 306-232. down to slim wins in some states (20,000 in Wisconsin)

Question 12

faithless electors

Answer 12

electors ppledged to vote but not legally bound- can disregard
e.g. 7 in 2016, but has never swayed an election’s outcome

Question 13

advantages of EC

Answer 13

1. reflects federal nature of US- must campaign to range of states
2. faithless electors never affected outcome- none from 2008/12/20.
3. clear winner- not shared proportionally

Question 14

disadvantages of EC

Answer 14

1. winner of popular vote fail to be elected- Gore 2000
2. smaller states overrepped e.g. Cali 1 per 712,000, Wyoming 1 per 195,000
3. faithless electors threat to democratic process- 2016, 7 of them

Question 15

incumbency (factor affecting election outcome)

Answer 15

2018 90% incumbents who re-run were victorious. name recognition, boast achievements
however, no guarantee e.g. 2018 4 incumbent Ds and 1R lost re-election- money poured into these seats e.g. Florida $118m spent

Question 16

issues (factor affecting election outcome)

Answer 16

Busg 9/11 response bought US together- 90% approval ratings helping 2004 reelection.
Hurricane Katrina poor response 2005- ratings 38%
October surprise- Oct 2016 tapes of Trump making vulgar comments about women

Question 17

media (factor affecting election outcome)

Answer 17

-political ads- can project desired image e.g. 2012 Obama ad praising his raise of oil production
-debates- 2016- first debate 2016 84m viewers
-news- reflects one side of spectrum- 2016 RW focused on Clinton’s emails, LW on Trump indiscretions

Question 18

candidates qualities (factor affecting election outcome)

Answer 18

more focus on candidates’ qualities than party affiliation
e.g. 2020 Trump 42m twitter followers, R party 2.4m
therefore mistakes central to campaign

Question 19

race as voting behaviour

Answer 19

Afr-Ame, hispanic, Asian mostly vote D.
white vote Rs but by smaller margines
e.g. 2020 87% afr-ame D, 58% whites voted R

Question 20

gender as voting behaviour

Answer 20

more women D, men R
e.g. 2020 57% women Biden, 53% men Trump

Question 21

religion as voting behaviour

Answer 21

white evangelical christians back R, non religious D
e.g. 2020 76% white evangelical Trump, 65% no religion Biden

Question 22

wealth as voting behaviour

Answer 22

not much of difference- more race-based.
e.g. 54% earning over $100k Trump

Question 23

realigning elections

Answer 23

groups of voters realign with party.

cons white in south from D to R, mostly during 1964. felt betrayed by democrat support of 1960 civil rights. new R “solid south”