US can no longer claim global hegemonic status Flashcards
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Introduction → key terms
If a country has ‘global hegemonic status’, it is dominant over international affairs with no other state able to meaningfully challenge its power. This dominance applies across the economic, geopolitical and military spheres.
What are the three debate themes?
- Economic power
- Military power
- Geopolitics
P1: Economic power
For →
The US can no longer claim global hegemonic status because China’s economic rise has made the global economy more bipolar, reducing US influence.
China’s economy has grown rapidly, becoming the second-largest globally, with a GDP of $19 trillion in 2024 and projected to surpass the US by 2035.
Since joining the WTO in 2001, China has dominated global manufacturing, accounting for 30% of global output, making it central to global supply chains.
China’s economic power challenges US geopolitical influence, as many countries are more dependent on China than the US, particularly in areas like 5G, AI, and electric vehicles.
Chinese companies like Huawei and BYD are becoming significant players in high-tech sectors, creating competition and prompting US sanctions.
China is also the largest exporter and trading partner for over 120 countries, using this economic influence to shape global politics and destabilize Western alliances, like causing rifts in the EU through Hungary’s support.
Meanwhile, the US faces economic challenges, including a national debt exceeding $33 trillion and extreme wealth inequality, with the top 1% holding nearly 40% of the nation’s wealth.
P1: Economic power
Against →
The US can still claim global hegemonic status because its economic power is more deeply entrenched than China’s, which lacks structural factors supporting US dominance.
The US dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, making up nearly 60% of global reserves. This solidifies US influence in global trade and finance, giving it significant economic leverage over other nations.
US companies dominate global markets, with 7 of the top 10 global brands and 61 of the top 100 being American, including Amazon, Apple, Google, and Tesla.
The US is also home to the world’s most advanced and respected universities, contributing to its global reputation in innovation and education.
Although China’s currency and global brands are growing, it still lags behind the US in these areas, reducing the real threat to US global hegemony.
Despite China’s remarkable economic growth, it remains heavily reliant on exports and investment. Challenges like high corporate and local government debt (over 280% of GDP) and an aging, shrinking workforce pose risks to sustained success.
China’s growth rate has slowed to under 5% in 2023, which is far below the double-digit growth rates of previous decades.
P2: Military power
For →
A powerful argument for the United States’ continued hegemonic status is its unmatched military power, funding, and technological advancements.
The US military’s defense budget of $877 billion in 2023 is larger than the next 10 countries’ combined, including China, and is four times greater than China’s defense budget.
The US maintains over 700 military bases worldwide, providing it with a unique global reach and the ability to project power and defend allies across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
The US’s military hegemony is also reinforced by strong alliances with other great powers, particularly designed to counterbalance China and Russia.
In the Indo-Pacific, the US leads the Quad—an alliance with Japan, India, and Australia—aimed at curbing China’s growing influence through joint military exercises and security dialogues.
In Europe, NATO’s collective defense principle deters Russian aggression, providing the US with a solid framework for collective military action.
P2: Military power
Against →
The United States’ claim to global hegemonic status can be challenged due to the increasingly multipolar world, where it is no longer able to dominate all regions simultaneously.
While still a superpower, the US is stretched by the growing power of other countries and is unable to maintain dominance in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East at the same time.
Russia has challenged US power by invading Ukraine, a fellow democracy and a NATO neighbor, testing US military and financial commitments.
China has asserted its military power in the South China Sea by militarizing islands and creating artificial islands as military bases, further straining US influence.
Rising powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have also become more assertive in North Africa and the Middle East, challenging US influence.
The US military hegemony is undermined by domestic reluctance to commit significant resources across all global regions, fueled by populist attitudes like those of Trump’s “America First” approach.
Trump’s pressure on NATO allies to increase military spending and his focus on domestic issues reflect a shift away from the US’s traditional global dominance.
P3: Geopolitics
For →
The United States’ ability to claim global hegemonic status is increasingly challenged by a coalition of states, led by China, with a shared goal of reducing US dominance.
This coalition, which includes Russia, Iran, and North Korea, is working together economically and militarily to undermine US influence, particularly in Eurasia and the Middle East.
The alliance is highly effective as it combines the major energy powers of Russia and Iran with China’s growing economic power. This secures China’s access to vital energy resources, while the US must rely on other partners for oil.
Iran’s role is crucial, as it exports 90% of its oil to China, strengthening their economic interdependence and diminishing US leverage.
China’s President Xi has a clear vision of replacing the US as the global hegemon. Over the last decade, China has expanded its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which links over 140 countries and facilitates Chinese investment in infrastructure projects worldwide.
The BRI strengthens China’s global economic and strategic position, allowing it to challenge the US’ network of global alliances, especially in securing raw materials and influencing political decisions, as seen with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Through initiatives like the CPEC, China reduces its dependence on traditional trade routes, secures alternative oil routes, and increases its leverage over countries like Pakistan.
P3: Geopolitics
Against →
The U.S. maintains global hegemony through a powerful network of alliances, including NATO and bilateral defense agreements with key Indo-Pacific countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
It has strong historical ties with major European powers (UK, France, Germany) and economic influence that far exceeds that of Russia and Iran.
Even as more powers rise, the U.S. still leads due to its ability to influence allies to pursue its objectives.
In contrast, China and Russia have fewer formal allies and rely more on economic dependence.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has led to accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy,” damaging its global reputation.
Both China’s actions in the South China Sea and Russia’s human rights violations have alienated many potential allies, including India after border clashes with China.
Overall argument
The United States can no longer claim global hegemony.
Although the U.S. remains the world’s most powerful country, China’s economic growth and its partnerships with Russia and Iran pose a significant challenge.
The world is now multipolar, and increasingly bipolar, rather than unipolar.
Revisionist powers, like China, Russia, and Iran, challenge the U.S. militarily and geopolitically in different regions.
These powers share the objective of reducing U.S. power and dominance in global politics.
