non-democratic states are the system of biggest threat to global peace and security Flashcards
LOA
Introduction → key definitions
‘Rogue states’ are included in ‘non-democratic states’, whilst ‘semi-democratic states’ and ‘failed states’ are not.
What are the three debate themes?
- non-democratic states vs failed states
- rogue states vs democratic states
- non-democratic states vs semi democratic states
P1: non-democratic states vs failed states
Against →
Non-democratic states can pose a significant threat to global peace and security due to their internal instability. The lack of political participation and repression often leads to uprisings and civil wars that can have international repercussions.
For example, the Arab Spring of 2011 showed how dissatisfaction with autocratic regimes led to revolts, resulting in violent civil wars in Syria and Libya. These conflicts destabilised the region and had global consequences.
The collapse of autocratic regimes often causes power vacuums, leading to further instability. In Libya, Gaddafi’s fall created a power struggle that fuelled arms trafficking, migrant flows, and ongoing conflict, affecting neighbouring regions and challenging global security.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the ousting of President Mobutu in 1997 led to a civil war involving several countries, resulting in over 5 million deaths and displacement, which significantly impacted Central Africa’s stability and development.
P1: non-democratic states vs failed states
For →
While non-democratic states are a threat, failed states are arguably a greater risk to global peace and security, as they cause far more instability.
A failed state is one where the government has collapsed, losing the ability to maintain law, order, and provide basic services, leading to the breakdown of governance.
The collapse of government in failed states creates conditions for violence and exploitation by militant and terrorist groups, who operate without restrictions. These groups engage in arms trafficking, smuggling, and international attacks, further destabilizing regions.
For example, after the collapse of government in Somalia in 1991, militias, warlords, and terrorist groups, such as al-Shabaab and ISIS, exploited the vacuum, spreading instability throughout Africa.
Failed states also lead to mass displacement, creating refugee crises that destabilize neighbouring countries. In Sudan, the 2023 conflict forced over a million refugees into neighbouring countries like Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, escalating regional instability.
In Chad, the influx of Sudanese refugees intensified local conflicts over resources, while in South Sudan, armed groups from Sudan crossed the border, heightening security risks and further destabilizing the region.
P2: rogue states vs democratic states
Against →
A key argument for non-democratic states being the biggest threat to global peace is that many are “rogue states,” which deliberately disrupt the international order by defying international norms.
Rogue states often engage in aggressive actions, such as pursuing weapons of mass destruction, supporting terrorism, or violating international treaties, which significantly threaten global security.
Over the past decade, rogue states, especially Russia and Iran, have increased their power and influence, challenging the US-led global order.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and its support for Bashar al-Assad in Syria have destabilized Europe and the Middle East, undermining global stability.
Similarly, Iran’s nuclear program and support for groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have caused instability across the Middle East, prolonging conflicts like the Syrian Civil War and the Yemen Crisis.
In contrast, democratic states are often seen as less prone to causing instability. According to “Democratic Peace Theory,” democracies avoid war with one another due to diplomacy and economic cooperation.
Democracies are also viewed as promoting global peace and security by using military power to support human rights and democracy. An example is NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, which helped stop ethnic cleansing and supported Kosovo’s path towards democracy.
P2: rogue states vs democratic states
For →
Democratic states, like the US and UK, can be a greater threat to global peace due to interventions that aim to promote democracy but often result in instability.
Interventions in Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan (2001) led to mass casualties, power vacuums, and regional instability. In Iraq, the rise of ISIS and sectarian violence followed the US invasion.
Afghanistan saw initial progress, but the Taliban returned after the US withdrawal, highlighting the failure to impose democracy.
Additionally, democratic states sometimes support human rights abuses when it aligns with their geopolitical interests, such as the US’s arms support to Israel despite civilian casualties.
In contrast, non-democratic states like China focus on non-intervention and sovereignty, avoiding the destabilizing effects of military intervention.
P3: non-democratic states vs semi democratic states
Against →
Non-democratic states aren’t the biggest threat to global peace and stability; semi-democratic states present a growing risk. These states blend democratic and autocratic features, holding elections but often manipulating processes and restricting civil liberties.
They weaken international organisations they are part of, posing a threat to global peace. Semi-democratic states cooperate with autocratic regimes, undermining liberal democratic efforts within international institutions.
For example, under President Erdoğan, Turkey has become more authoritarian, using electoral manipulation and media censorship. Despite being a key Western ally, Turkey’s ties with Russia and other non-democratic states have destabilized the balance of power.
Similarly, Hungary, under Prime Minister Orbán, has shifted from democracy to semi-democracy. Despite holding elections, Orbán’s government undermines judicial independence, restricts media freedom, and curtails civil society. This has created tensions within the EU and harmed its global credibility.
P3: non-democratic states vs semi democratic states
For →
Non-democratic states pose a greater threat to global peace and stability as they intentionally destabilize democracies to challenge the global balance of power.
They encourage democratic backsliding in Western countries and support semi-democratic governments, undermining cooperation among liberal democracies.
A key example is Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, where disinformation campaigns aimed to erode public trust in democratic institutions and influence voter sentiment, destabilizing American democracy and weakening Western unity.
Similarly, China has used semi-democratic states to gain economic leverage and create divisions within the West. For instance, its partnership with Hungary has bolstered China’s influence within the EU, further causing rifts in a key Western competitor.
Overall argument
In conclusion, non-democratic states pose the biggest threat to global peace and stability.
Rogue states like Russia and Iran are primary disruptors, as they actively undermine U.S. global hegemony.
These states support other non-democratic regimes and terrorist organizations to destabilize regions.
Their use of hard power further contributes to global instability.
Non-democratic regimes are often unstable, leading to power vacuums that result in civil wars.
These conflicts create regional instability and have widespread global consequences.
