China is now a super power Flashcards
LOA
No
Introduction → key terms
Super power → a state that possesses the ability to project major power across the global military, economic, political and cultural dimensions.
What are the three debate themes?
- Economic power
- Military power
- Geopolitical powers and allies
P1: Economic power
For → China is now a superpower
China’s economic power rivals and is expected to surpass the US by 2035, with a nominal GDP of $19 trillion in 2024. Currently, the worlds second largest economy.
Since joining the WTO in 2001, China dominates global manufacturing, accounting for 30% of global output.
China is deeply integrated into global supply chains, making its economic influence hard to weaken, despite US efforts.
China is an important player in geopolitically important sectors + many other countries economies are dependent on China.
China’s economic power extends into key sectors like 5G, AI, biotechnology, and electric vehicles, which are crucial for geopolitical and economic competition.
Companies like Huawei, Tencent, and BYD are technologically advanced, leading to U.S. sanctions.
The Made In China 2025 Plan invested heavily in R&D to make China a global leader in high-value industries, challenging the U.S.
China is the world’s largest exporter and the largest trading partner for over 120 countries.
China leverages this economic influence for geopolitical gain, as seen in Hungary’s support within the EU, causing rifts with Western competitors.
P1: Economic power
Against → China isn’t a superpower
China’s economic growth is vulnerable due to heavy reliance on exports and investment.
High corporate and local government debt, exceeding 280% of GDP, poses a significant risk.
China’s aging population and shrinking workforce contribute to a slowing growth rate, falling below 5% in 2023, which is much slower than the double-digit growth of previous decades.
These factors raise doubts about China’s ability to sustain long-term economic power to fully challenge the U.S.
China lacks key structural factors that support the U.S.’s dominance, like the U.S. dollar being the global reserve currency (60% of global reserves) and U.S. companies holding the top global brand rankings.
The U.S. also leads in advanced universities and global brands, with 7 out of the top 10 and 61 out of the top 100 global brands being American (e.g., Amazon, Apple, Google, Tesla).
While China’s currency, global brands, and universities are growing, it still lags behind the U.S. in these areas, limiting its ability to challenge U.S. superpower status.
P2: Military power
For → China is now a superpower
China has translated its economic power and large population into significant military power.
By 2024, China has the world’s second-largest defense budget at $230 billion.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) now has the largest navy in terms of the number of ships.
China has developed advanced missile technology, including hypersonic missiles and ballistic missile systems.
These advancements allow China to project power globally, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, challenging the U.S. military.
China is militarizing the South China Sea by building artificial islands and military bases to control vital shipping routes.
With over 1.4 billion people, China has significant latent military power and can mobilize forces quickly if needed.
P2: Military power
Against → China isn’t a superpower
China’s military power lags behind the U.S. in critical areas.
The U.S. defense budget of $877 billion (2023) far exceeds China’s.
The U.S. maintains a global presence with over 700 military bases worldwide, while China has less than 5.
There is a technological gap between U.S. and Chinese military equipment, training, and battlefield experience.
China has not engaged in large-scale military operations like the U.S., which has decades of experience in global warfare.
While China’s military is strong in its region, it lacks the U.S.’s global expeditionary capabilities, such as advanced logistics, naval assets, and air power.
The ability to project military power worldwide is a key characteristic of a superpower, which China lacks.
P3: Geopolitical power and allies
For → China is a superpower
China has important allies that bolster its challenge to U.S. supremacy and provide significant geopolitical power.
Strong partnerships with Russia, North Korea, and Iran support China’s economic and strategic interests.
Russia and Iran provide vital oil exports, with Iran sending 90% of its oil to China.
These countries share common goals of reducing U.S. influence in Eurasia and the Middle East.
President Xi’s vision to rejuvenate China as a global superpower is supported by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Launched in 2013, BRI links China with over 140 countries through infrastructure projects.
The initiative deepens economic ties and extends China’s strategic influence globally.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a key example of China’s strategic and economic leverage.
It secures alternative trade routes, reduces reliance on the South China Sea, and gives China influence over Pakistan’s political decisions.
P3: Geopolitical power and allies
Against → China isn’t a superpower
China lacks a deep network of alliances, especially among great powers, which is a key factor for U.S. superpower status.
The U.S. leads NATO, with 30 member states, and has strong bilateral defense agreements in the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Japan, South Korea, Australia) and Europe (e.g., UK, France, Germany).
The economic power of these U.S. allies far surpasses that of Russia and Iran.
China has few formal allies, with many relationships based on economic dependency rather than military alliances.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been criticised for ‘debt-trap diplomacy,’ as countries struggle to repay loans, like Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, which damages China’s reputation.
China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea and human rights abuses in Xinjiang have reduced its soft power and alienated potential partners, particularly in the West.
India, once a partner, has grown wary of China due to border clashes in the Himalayas.
Overall argument
In conclusion, China isn’t yet a superpower.
While China has significant economic power and will likely use its future growth and large population to strengthen its military, it currently lacks the ability to project military power globally.
Additionally, China lacks the extensive network of allies and geopolitical alliances required to be considered a superpower or to truly challenge the United States.
The U.S. remains hegemonic due to its unparalleled military power and influence over Western democracies.
