Unit 8 Flashcards
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
The number of births per thousand individuals in a population, per year
Four main factors that affect population size
Birth rate, Death rate, Immigration, Emigration
Fertility rates higher than 2.0
Population increase
Fertility rates lower than 2.0
Population decrease
In order to maintain a stable population
Parents should be replaced by 2 children (not including migration)
Birth rate is expressed….
As a percentage
The high variant assumes
That CDR will fall rapidly, and CBR will fall slowly
The medium variant
Is a middle ground and a straightforward projection of the curve
Low variant
Assumes we will not find a cure to AIDS or similar big killers, resulting in a CBR fall
Until now, the global population has followed
An exponential curve - when population follows an accelerating rate of growth proportional to the population size
CBR is expressed….
Per thousand individuals
Crude death rates (CDR)
The number of deaths, per a thousand individuals in a population per year
How are CBR and CDR calculated?
By dividing the number of births or deaths by the population size, multiplying by 1000
Natural increase rate (NIR)
The rate of human growth expressed as a percentage change per year
To calculate NIR
CBR - CDR / 10 (Ignores migration)
Doubling Time (DT)
je tome in years it takes for a population to double in size (NIR of 1% will make a population double in size in 70 years)
Total fertility rate (TFR)
The average number of children each woman has, over her lifetime (this can also measure the amount of births)
Dependency Ratio (DR)
The amount of people within dependent population in comparison to the higher and lower section of the pyramid. The depended population takes care of these others in the population
Fertility Rate (FR)
The number of births per thousand women of childbearing age
Birth rate
Expressed in a percentage, birth per 1000, or 100% of the total population - (crude birth rate is more common now)
Human development index (HDI)
Measures the well being of a country combining measures of health (life expectancy), wealth (GDP per capita) and eduction into one value
LEDCs
In economic decline, least developed, potentially failed states
Newley industrialised countries (NICs)
Accelerated industrial development, increased GDP. Accompanied by massive foreign investment, population, migration to provide workforce, free trace, increased civil rights. EG: China, India, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, Phillipines, Turket, Mexico, Brazil
Human population causing environmental impacts are underpinned by:
- More people require more resources
- More people reduce more waste
- People usually want to improve their standard of living
- The more people there are, the greater impact they have
If we can control population increases and resource demand
Levels of sustainability should increase
Demography
The study of statistical characteristics of human populations: Total size, age, sex, composition, changes over time with varied birth / death rates
Populations are stable
When birth and death rate are qual so there is no gain or loss in population size
Factors that impact resource failure and the consequences of human population
- Size of population
- Wealth of population and demand for resource desire or need
- Assumption of everyone having the same needs
(However, resources vary in time and space)
MEDCs and LEDCs
Demonstrate contrasting use over capita. EG: Amazonian indians have a different need to Parisians, Young and elderly have different needs, urban and rural populations have different needs
20% of the world
Live in MEDCs
80% of the world
Live in LEDCs
The population is falling in MEDCs
Because of a high birth rate in LEDCs
Sometimes both rate is
Negative in MEDCs ie: Germany
An optimum population is reached when….
The population produces the highest economic return per capita, using all available resources, with some countries having a higher optimum population density than others
Richer countries tend to
Import goods and services from everywhere
Malthus and Boserup theories
Relate to population growth and food supply
Limitations of the demographic transition model:
Initially without the 5th stage, death rate not necessarily as steep as suggested, fall in birth rate makes assumption of contraception and religious practices allowing for it, deaths from diseases could affect, some countries have compressed the timescale, it is only Eurocentric and assumes all countries will become industrialised
Why do people have large families?
High child mortality rates due to malnutrition and disease, Unavailability of contraceptives (in LEDCs), Security in old age (the more children, less burden to take care of parents), children are an economic asset (working on land), Status of women (how they are deprived of many rights, considered only good for making children
Ways to reduce family size
Provide education, improve health, make contraceptives and family counselling easily available, Enhance income, improve resource management
What is the demographic transition model (DTM)?
The pattern of decline in mortality and fertility of a country as a result of social and economic transition, shown in a 5 stage population model (This also links to the sigmoid growth curve)
Stage 1: (DTM)
(Pre industrial societies) - High birth due to no birth control, high infant mortality rates, culture encouraging large families, High death rates due to disease, little medicine, famine, and poor hygiene
Stage 2: (DTM)
Early expanding (LEDCs) - Death rate drops, sanitation and food improves, disease is reduced showing lifespan improvement, birth rate still high, high population expansion, improved medicine, child mortality rates fall
Stage 3: (DTM)
Late expanding (Wealthier LEDCs) - As a country develops, birth rates fall because of improved healthcare and contraception, education, emancipation of women. Population levels off, desire for material goods and low infant death rates mean that people have smaller families
Stage 4: (DTM)
Low stationary (MEDCs) - Low birth/death rates, industrialised counties, stable population sizes
Stage 5: (DTM)
Declining (MEDCs) - population may not be replaced, fertility rate is low, ageing workforce
Something to remember with the DTM….
It explains changes in some countries but not others, China/Brazil passed through the stages very quickly, sub saharan countries or those affected by war or civil unrest do not follow the model, it has been criticised as exploiting the European model worldwide
Many countries….
Are hard to categorise into MEDCs or LEDCs
MEDC Country Examples
Most countries in Europe, North America, Israel, South Africa, and Japan
LEDC country examples
Most of sub Saharan Africa, Asia, and South America
MEDCs have:
Relatively low population growth rtes, largely due to low CBR but rising CDR. Very high carbon/ecological footprints, individuals are unlikely to starve through poverty, Population is relatively rich, relatively high resource use per capita (person), Industrial with high GDPs
LEDCs have:
Hardly any industry, lower GDP, higher poverty rates, people have very poor standards of living, high population growth rate due to falling CDR, lower carbon/ecological footprints
MEDCs have….
Falling birth rate (higher than LEDCs), which sometimes become negative (eg: Italy/Germany)
Thomas Malthus Theory
In his text “Principle of Population” in 1798, he claimed that food supply was the main limit of population growth, believing that food supply grows arithmetically, and human population grows geometrically. The growing population would eventually exhaust the world’s resources and decrease quality of life
Thomas Malthus beliefs
He believed that as population increased, there would be greater human pressure to deliver on producing more food supplies, making people farm more intensively, and cultivate poorer land.
Limitations of Malthusian Theory
Too simplistic, misses out the fact that not all food supplies are spread evenly around the world, did not consider technology, not very relevant to modern day
Esther Boserup Theory 1965,
Boserup believed that “necessity is the mother of variation” (if it is needed someone will create it) She believed in simple terms that innovation and food technology would grow with the population
Boserup’s Beliefs
Technology would be created with the motivation of starvation and the challenge of feeding more mouths. Therefore people would invent new technology and ways to improve farming and food production.
Limitations to Boserup’s theory
Also based on ‘closed’ community, migration usually occurs in areas of overpopulation, unsuitable farming practices may degrade the land, population pressure does not always lead to development
Policies which could release population growth rates….
Pay more tax for more children, increase birth control and education, policies that stimulate economic growth, pension schemes so parents are not as dependent on their children, urbanisation to reduce CBR, education of women, enabling women to have more independence
Policies which may increase population growth….
Lowering income tax, giving incentives and free education/health care, improved public health/sanitation, encouraging immigration (especially for workers), agricultural development
Neo-Malthusians
A group of people also known as the Club of Rome in the 60s who applied Malthus’ theory to resources rather than food
Trend
Time (The difference in numbers, over years) Looking at a graph of world population
Pattern
Pattern - Space (You would look at differences between countries) Population growth for different places
Why are both Malthus and Boserup right?
Malthus refers to the environmental limits, Boserup relates to cultural and technological issues
4 basic population pyramid shapes that match the DTM
Expanding, expanding, stationary, contracting
Problem with pro/anti natal policies
When a country goes back to trying to increase their population to cancel out the issues of an ageing population, they are unable to as once women gain control over their own fertility, they rarely wish to go back to having a large family
It is important to consider () when discussing population
Push and pull factors
Indents
A dramatic inwards line on a population pyramid
Natural capital
A resource which has some value to humans
Resources
Goods or services that we use
Natural income
The rate of replacement of a particular resource or natural capital
Natural resources that have value to us include:
Natural resources that have value to us, (trees, soil, water, living organisms, and ores bearing minerals)
Natural resources that provide services that support life:
Eg: flood and erosion protection provided by forests and processes (photosynthesis that provides oxygen for life form to respire), the water cycle or other process that maintain healthy ecosystems
Natural capital can also be described as….
Goods that are not manufactured but have value to humans. They can be improved or degraded and a given a monetary value.
The terms resource and natural capital
Are interchangeable
Natural capital….
Yields natural income (yield or harvest or services) - eg: factories produce objects, water cycle provides water
The measure of the true wealth of a country
Includes its natural capital. EG: how many mineral resources forests rivers it has