Unit 5 - The Electoral Process & Direct Democracy Flashcards
What are the types of elections in the US? What are they?
- Congressional elections
- Presidential elections
- Direct democracy elections - people who vote directly on legislation - due to federalism - vote for legislation that applies to your state (ballot initiative)
- Primary elections - elect who will represent their party - the party nominee
What are the timings of elections?
-In the Constitution
-Presidential – 4 yrs
-Congressional – 2 yrs (Midterms)
-All others decided by states e.g. Wisconsin held 2020 elections in April then in November
What is the role of states in elections?
-Gerrymandering - manipulation of state districts every 10 years due to the naitonal census
-Voter ID laws - some are more strict than others
-Organisation of primaries - they’re not federal
-HOWEVER parties determine the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions - not the states
-Voter registration requirements - North Dakota has 0 requirements
-Ballot access laws - laws around who can get onto the ballot so that you can vote for them - some have a write in candidate (blank space where if you dont want to vote for an official candidate, you can vote for whoever you wish)
What is the electoral system like in most states? Examples of states where they dont use this system?
-Mostly majoritarian (whoever gets most votes wins) BUT no federal requirements for electoral systems (with the exception of the Electoral College with the presidential election)
-Georgia - senate elections use top two system - if the top candidate (person with most votes) has not achieved 50% of votes, there is a run off election between the top two candidates
-Maine - for congressional and local elections, they used ranked choice - like STV in UK - winner of round 1 doesnt mean they actually win e.g. 2018 Republican won first round but democrat candidate won as the independents votes went to the dems in second round
-Presidentials use an indirect method of election - num of electoral college votes ≠ pop vote
Strengths of US electoral system?
-States can choose what works best for them - acknowledges the varying desires of each state
-Congressional elections are frequent - makes it easy to get rid of congresspeople who aren’t doing enough
-Majoritarian - fair system
-Large number of elections - offers opportunities for political participation
-Usually results in a clear result and single party control of legislative chambers because of majoritarian system - no coalition
-Reflects federal nature of gov - gives states poverty with a national framework to avoid bias and discrimination
-Primaries and caucuses gives voters a key role
-Electoral college ensures representation for smaller states so arent overlooked
Weaknesses of US electoral system?
-Gerrymandering can be done by parties - will favour a party
-There are so many different types of elections - confusing and complex to understand - voter fatigue/apathy
-There is a lot of variation in voter registration requirements which can make it hard to understand who can vote
-Electoral college does not always reflect the popular vote
-Little scope for third parties and true independents - main parties appeal only to their voters
-Two parties control a chamber each of congress making deadlock common - constantly polarise each other - no cooperation
-A lot of scope for electoral manipulation in individual states like gerrymandering and voter registration requirements - controversial especially in 2020
-Primaries and caucuses increase the amount and length of elections as well as encouraging divisions in parties
-Electoral college exaggerates power of smaller states
-both parties have become increasingly extreme, rely on partisan voters - no moderates - most Americans are moderates - doesnt represent diverse ideas that arent ‘left or right’ - would prefer gov that works together professionally
-majoritarian system and FPTP creates the idea of a ‘wasted vote’
-money in campaigns isn’t always transparent
What 5 reforms could there be to the electoral system?
- Fusion voting
- Ranked choice voting
- Removal of partisan primaries and RVC
- Multi member districts and RVC
- Open list proportional representation
What is fusion voting? Positives? Negatives? Where is it banned?
-more than one party can nominate the same candidate - appear multiplied times on ballot under different party labels (NYC already uses this)
-creates opportunities for third parties to influence elections & could break two party conflict and build coalitions
-some say the influences of this are limited by others say it’ll act as a step to greater reform
-it’s banned in 42 states but attempts to unban in New Jersey
What is ranked choice voting? Positives? Negatives? Where is it used?
-rank multiple candidates in order of preference - its like single transferrable vote in the UK - least votes candidate, votes transferred to second choice of voters and continue until quota reached
-ends FPTP and increases third parties and discourages polarisation as they want to be second or third choice
-but may not necessarily end partisanship
-2 states use RCV like Maine - Rep Golden by being voted in as second choice only
What is removal of partisan primaries and RVC? Negatives? Where is a better alternative for this system used?
-adopt top two primary like California - primary for each party and primary for all candidates then top two go to general election
-limited impact than hoped
-top 4 or 5 system is better like in Alaska or Nevada - diversity of choices - no fear of wasted vote
What is multi member districts and RVC? Positives? Where is it used?
-larger districts so multiple per area - written in Fair Representaiton Act federal bill - each bigger state would elect 3-5 members to the house
-third parties could win - motivates independents to campaign hard too be even second or third vote - likely to win
-Portland in Oregon uses this in city council elections
What is open list proportional representation? Positives? Negatives? Where is it used?
-eliminates single member districts - each political party get seats in legislature in proportional to votes they earn (if they win 20% of vote, they get 20% of seats)
-voters also determine which candidates for the party are elected and the order they’re prioritised in is based on number of votes (if they win 2 seats, top 2 candidates chosen)
-no red or blue states - easy for third parties to win - no wasted vote
-unfamiliar in US
-used in 40 countries
What are the characteristics of election campaigns?
- Frequency
- Individuality
- Core supporters
- Swing movement
- Money
- Midterms
How does frequency of midterms impact those campaigning?
Presidential elections are every 4 years, so after 2 years (midterms), the president may start to campaign for next eleciton - ‘invisible primaries’
How does individuality impact those campaigning?
-‘rugged individualism’ - to run for office, you dont apply to a party and get chosen, you create a campaign team and get yourself on the ballot if you have enough signatures
-candidates are ‘self starters’
-parties do though play a role in directed donors and can help endorse party figures
-e.g. Trump in 2016 did show with enough money and public profile, one could become president - opposed originally by many republicans but he was trusted as an individual not a Republican
How do core supporters impact those campaigning?
-most candidates appeal to specfic sections of the electorate, they work hard to try and make those likely to vote, cast a vote for a cdsnadiate e.g. 2004, Republicans ran a campaign to ban same sex marriage to get support from conservatives and win GW BUsh the reelection
-Some campaigns try to discourage voters like few republicans wanting AAs to appeal to them as they vote democrats - leads to less favour for postal votes in Republican states
-identifying core supporters is improtnat to know who you’re demographic is - Harris’s campaign in 2024 didnt do this
How does the swing movement impact those campaigning?
-e.g. Florida or Pennsylvania, ther are some safe seats like California or Texas
-elections focus on battleground states with 2/3 campaign events in 2016 presidential race were in just 6 swing state
-most money given to states with earlier primaries and caucuses
-victories in these can help build momentum ;like on super Tuesday - leads to greater funding - makes less popular candidates exit e.g. 4 contenders in 2020 Democratic primaries
How does money impact those campaigning?
-total cost for 2020 elections was $14 billion, money doesn’t guarantee a win e.g. Clinton outspent trump but lost
-lack of funds menas you cant run a nationwide campaign
-money can come from the rich or average Americans like sanders getting $46 million from 22 million indivudals
How do midterms impact those campaigning?
-they indicated publics confidence for the presidents performance
-the party of the president loses in midterms but not Bush after 9/11
-promises are made to secure election but these dont always work and lead to a lame duck presidency
Reasons for why midterms are important?
-The coattails phenomenon, where an extremely popular candidate at the top of the electoral ticket (such as the President) carries candidates for lower offices with them into office, has usually diminished by the time of the mid-terms E.g. Trump voters in 2024 likely voted for Republican candidates, but this is likely to not be true in 2026
-Split-ticket voting can occur, where people vote for candidates of two or more parties for different offices at the same election, often because voters are thinking of divided government
-The president’s party usually loses seats in both houses. Between 1994 and 2014 the president’s party lost an average of 25 House seats
-Mid-terms are a chance for voters to express their disappointment or disapproval with a president’s previous years in office
Reasons for why the mid terms are not important?
-There is often strong support for incumbents in congressional elections, especially in the House.
Between 2000 and 2016, reelection rates ranged from 85.4% in 2010 to 97.8% in 2000
-Most members of Congress leave by voluntary retirement rather than electoral defeat.
-Incumbency brings a large number of advantages, such as providing constituency services; high levels of name recognition; and fundraising advantages
-Split districts have been declining steadily, with only 26 split in 2012, suggesting that voting is strictly partisan
-The number of competitive districts (those won by less than 10 percentage points) has decreased from 111 in 1992 to 65 in 2012, making it harder for party control of the House to change hands
-less than 50% of voters voted in 2022 mid terms
CASE STUDY: how many seats did each party win in the house and senate in the 2022 midterms?
SENATE:
REPUBLICANS - 222/435
DEMOCRATS - 213/435
HOUSE:
REPUBLICANS - 49/100
DEMOCRATS - 51/100
CASE STUDY: surprises in the 2022 mid terms?
-There were pockets of Republican dominance and pockets of Democrat dominance
-Republicans did well in Florida and NY & Democrats did well in the Midwest and rust belt
-Republican David Valadao who voted in favour of Trumps impeachment was reflected
-Tendency for party of the president to lose seats but Democrats gained seats or lost few seats - considering Bidens unpopularity, this was surprising
CASE STUDY: influences on the 2022 midterms campaign?
ABORTION
Dobbs - the overturning of Roe v Wade motivated key voters
Disappointed with the Republicans, many voted for Democrats - Pat Ryan won over Marcus Molinaro in NYC as she was pro choice
QUALITY OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
Many of the candidates were weak - especially the presidential election deniers lost such as Blake Masters in Arizona
McConnell - R Senate leader voiced concerns over candidates
CAMPAIGN TACTICS
Democrats were door knocking, aware of what their electorate wanted - in Montana (with reproductive rights on the line), they captured the desire for privacy
Democrat use of big money - $214 million in TV ads