Unit 5 - The Electoral Process & Direct Democracy Flashcards
What are the types of elections in the US? What are they?
- Congressional elections
- Presidential elections
- Direct democracy elections - people who vote directly on legislation - due to federalism - vote for legislation that applies to your state (ballot initiative)
- Primary elections - elect who will represent their party - the party nominee
What are the timings of elections?
-In the Constitution
-Presidential – 4 yrs
-Congressional – 2 yrs (Midterms)
-All others decided by states e.g. Wisconsin held 2020 elections in April then in November
What is the role of states in elections?
-Gerrymandering - manipulation of state districts every 10 years due to the naitonal census
-Voter ID laws - some are more strict than others
-Organisation of primaries - they’re not federal
-HOWEVER parties determine the procedure for awarding delegates to the national nominating conventions - not the states
-Voter registration requirements - North Dakota has 0 requirements
-Ballot access laws - laws around who can get onto the ballot so that you can vote for them - some have a write in candidate (blank space where if you dont want to vote for an official candidate, you can vote for whoever you wish)
What is the electoral system like in most states? Examples of states where they dont use this system?
-Mostly majoritarian (whoever gets most votes wins) BUT no federal requirements for electoral systems (with the exception of the Electoral College with the presidential election)
-Georgia - senate elections use top two system - if the top candidate (person with most votes) has not achieved 50% of votes, there is a run off election between the top two candidates
-Maine - for congressional and local elections, they used ranked choice - like STV in UK - winner of round 1 doesnt mean they actually win e.g. 2018 Republican won first round but democrat candidate won as the independents votes went to the dems in second round
-Presidentials use an indirect method of election - num of electoral college votes ≠ pop vote
Strengths of US electoral system?
-States can choose what works best for them - acknowledges the varying desires of each state
-Congressional elections are frequent - makes it easy to get rid of congresspeople who aren’t doing enough
-Majoritarian - fair system
-Large number of elections - offers opportunities for political participation
-Usually results in a clear result and single party control of legislative chambers because of majoritarian system - no coalition
-Reflects federal nature of gov - gives states poverty with a national framework to avoid bias and discrimination
-Primaries and caucuses gives voters a key role
-Electoral college ensures representation for smaller states so arent overlooked
Weaknesses of US electoral system?
-Gerrymandering can be done by parties - will favour a party
-There are so many different types of elections - confusing and complex to understand - voter fatigue/apathy
-There is a lot of variation in voter registration requirements which can make it hard to understand who can vote
-Electoral college does not always reflect the popular vote
-Little scope for third parties and true independents - main parties appeal only to their voters
-Two parties control a chamber each of congress making deadlock common - constantly polarise each other - no cooperation
-A lot of scope for electoral manipulation in individual states like gerrymandering and voter registration requirements - controversial especially in 2020
-Primaries and caucuses increase the amount and length of elections as well as encouraging divisions in parties
-Electoral college exaggerates power of smaller states
-both parties have become increasingly extreme, rely on partisan voters - no moderates - most Americans are moderates - doesnt represent diverse ideas that arent ‘left or right’ - would prefer gov that works together professionally
-majoritarian system and FPTP creates the idea of a ‘wasted vote’
-money in campaigns isn’t always transparent
What 5 reforms could there be to the electoral system?
- Fusion voting
- Ranked choice voting
- Removal of partisan primaries and RVC
- Multi member districts and RVC
- Open list proportional representation
What is fusion voting? Positives? Negatives? Where is it banned?
-more than one party can nominate the same candidate - appear multiplied times on ballot under different party labels (NYC already uses this)
-creates opportunities for third parties to influence elections & could break two party conflict and build coalitions
-some say the influences of this are limited by others say it’ll act as a step to greater reform
-it’s banned in 42 states but attempts to unban in New Jersey
What is ranked choice voting? Positives? Negatives? Where is it used?
-rank multiple candidates in order of preference - its like single transferrable vote in the UK - least votes candidate, votes transferred to second choice of voters and continue until quota reached
-ends FPTP and increases third parties and discourages polarisation as they want to be second or third choice
-but may not necessarily end partisanship
-2 states use RCV like Maine - Rep Golden by being voted in as second choice only
What is removal of partisan primaries and RVC? Negatives? Where is a better alternative for this system used?
-adopt top two primary like California - primary for each party and primary for all candidates then top two go to general election
-limited impact than hoped
-top 4 or 5 system is better like in Alaska or Nevada - diversity of choices - no fear of wasted vote
What is multi member districts and RVC? Positives? Where is it used?
-larger districts so multiple per area - written in Fair Representaiton Act federal bill - each bigger state would elect 3-5 members to the house
-third parties could win - motivates independents to campaign hard too be even second or third vote - likely to win
-Portland in Oregon uses this in city council elections
What is open list proportional representation? Positives? Negatives? Where is it used?
-eliminates single member districts - each political party get seats in legislature in proportional to votes they earn (if they win 20% of vote, they get 20% of seats)
-voters also determine which candidates for the party are elected and the order they’re prioritised in is based on number of votes (if they win 2 seats, top 2 candidates chosen)
-no red or blue states - easy for third parties to win - no wasted vote
-unfamiliar in US
-used in 40 countries
What are the characteristics of election campaigns?
- Frequency
- Individuality
- Core supporters
- Swing movement
- Money
- Midterms
How does frequency of midterms impact those campaigning?
Presidential elections are every 4 years, so after 2 years (midterms), the president may start to campaign for next eleciton - ‘invisible primaries’
How does individuality impact those campaigning?
-‘rugged individualism’ - to run for office, you dont apply to a party and get chosen, you create a campaign team and get yourself on the ballot if you have enough signatures
-candidates are ‘self starters’
-parties do though play a role in directed donors and can help endorse party figures
-e.g. Trump in 2016 did show with enough money and public profile, one could become president - opposed originally by many republicans but he was trusted as an individual not a Republican
How do core supporters impact those campaigning?
-most candidates appeal to specfic sections of the electorate, they work hard to try and make those likely to vote, cast a vote for a cdsnadiate e.g. 2004, Republicans ran a campaign to ban same sex marriage to get support from conservatives and win GW BUsh the reelection
-Some campaigns try to discourage voters like few republicans wanting AAs to appeal to them as they vote democrats - leads to less favour for postal votes in Republican states
-identifying core supporters is improtnat to know who you’re demographic is - Harris’s campaign in 2024 didnt do this
How does the swing movement impact those campaigning?
-e.g. Florida or Pennsylvania, ther are some safe seats like California or Texas
-elections focus on battleground states with 2/3 campaign events in 2016 presidential race were in just 6 swing state
-most money given to states with earlier primaries and caucuses
-victories in these can help build momentum ;like on super Tuesday - leads to greater funding - makes less popular candidates exit e.g. 4 contenders in 2020 Democratic primaries
How does money impact those campaigning?
-total cost for 2020 elections was $14 billion, money doesn’t guarantee a win e.g. Clinton outspent trump but lost
-lack of funds menas you cant run a nationwide campaign
-money can come from the rich or average Americans like sanders getting $46 million from 22 million indivudals
How do midterms impact those campaigning?
-they indicated publics confidence for the presidents performance
-the party of the president loses in midterms but not Bush after 9/11
-promises are made to secure election but these dont always work and lead to a lame duck presidency
Reasons for why midterms are important?
-The coattails phenomenon, where an extremely popular candidate at the top of the electoral ticket (such as the President) carries candidates for lower offices with them into office, has usually diminished by the time of the mid-terms E.g. Trump voters in 2024 likely voted for Republican candidates, but this is likely to not be true in 2026
-Split-ticket voting can occur, where people vote for candidates of two or more parties for different offices at the same election, often because voters are thinking of divided government
-The president’s party usually loses seats in both houses. Between 1994 and 2014 the president’s party lost an average of 25 House seats
-Mid-terms are a chance for voters to express their disappointment or disapproval with a president’s previous years in office
Reasons for why the mid terms are not important?
-There is often strong support for incumbents in congressional elections, especially in the House.
Between 2000 and 2016, reelection rates ranged from 85.4% in 2010 to 97.8% in 2000
-Most members of Congress leave by voluntary retirement rather than electoral defeat.
-Incumbency brings a large number of advantages, such as providing constituency services; high levels of name recognition; and fundraising advantages
-Split districts have been declining steadily, with only 26 split in 2012, suggesting that voting is strictly partisan
-The number of competitive districts (those won by less than 10 percentage points) has decreased from 111 in 1992 to 65 in 2012, making it harder for party control of the House to change hands
-less than 50% of voters voted in 2022 mid terms
CASE STUDY: how many seats did each party win in the house and senate in the 2022 midterms?
SENATE:
REPUBLICANS - 222/435
DEMOCRATS - 213/435
HOUSE:
REPUBLICANS - 49/100
DEMOCRATS - 51/100
CASE STUDY: surprises in the 2022 mid terms?
-There were pockets of Republican dominance and pockets of Democrat dominance
-Republicans did well in Florida and NY & Democrats did well in the Midwest and rust belt
-Republican David Valadao who voted in favour of Trumps impeachment was reflected
-Tendency for party of the president to lose seats but Democrats gained seats or lost few seats - considering Bidens unpopularity, this was surprising
CASE STUDY: influences on the 2022 midterms campaign?
ABORTION
Dobbs - the overturning of Roe v Wade motivated key voters
Disappointed with the Republicans, many voted for Democrats - Pat Ryan won over Marcus Molinaro in NYC as she was pro choice
QUALITY OF REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
Many of the candidates were weak - especially the presidential election deniers lost such as Blake Masters in Arizona
McConnell - R Senate leader voiced concerns over candidates
CAMPAIGN TACTICS
Democrats were door knocking, aware of what their electorate wanted - in Montana (with reproductive rights on the line), they captured the desire for privacy
Democrat use of big money - $214 million in TV ads
CASE STUDY: what was the importance of the 2022 midterms?
-Impact on Biden fulfilling his legislative agenda - he has to make change to win 2024 Pres. election but this election may prevent him from doing so - his unpopularity may be used to justify congressional opposition
-Increase in White House scrutiny - previously blocked by Democrats - especially on immigration
-Large impact on many policy areas: abortion, immigration, religious rights, gun rights and addressing violence
-With a Republican win, Trump may run again for reelection - would be proof of support for conservative Republicans
CASE STUDY: the mid terms were typical? They weren’t typical? Conclusion?
TYPICAL
Presidential Party lost seats - Democrats lost the House
Economic Concerns - Inflation and economic uncertainty were major factors
ATYPICAL
No “Red Wave” - odd due to low approval ratings and economic concerns
Democrats gained a Senate seat
Candidates elected in primary voters’ choices cost them the win
CONCLUSION - ATYPICAL
Unexpected results - even though Dems lost seats, they lost very few - Republican underperformance
Key policies that weren’t issues in the past were greatly considered
What is the electoral process for presidential elections?
- The invisible primary
- Primaries and caucuses
- VP candidates
- National party conventions
- General election campaign
- Election day
- Electoral college
Requirements for presidential candidates?
-Natural-born American citizen
-At least 35 years old
-Residency qualification of 14 years
What is the selection and nomination process of elections?
- Invisible Primaries - The period between candidates declaring an intention to run for the presidency and the first primaries and caucuses - will begin to create policies
- Primaries - A state-based election to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. It shows support for candidates among ordinary voters
- Caucuses - A state-based series of meetings to choose a party’s candidate for the presidency. They attract unrepresentative (public don’t vote but mainly gov officials) and low turnouts
- National party conventions - national nominating conventions - held every four years by each of the two major parties to select presidential and vice-presidential candidates and agree the party platform
What commission increased state primaries? By what party? When?
McGovern-Fraser Commission – The commission established by the Democratic Party following the 1968 presidential election to recommend reforms to the presidential nomination process which led to a drastic increase in the number of state primaries
Stages within invisible primaries?
- Candidate announcements
- Televised party debates
- Fundraising
- Front runners
What are candidate announcements within the invisible primaries? Pros? Cons?
-This is when candidate formally announces their intention to run, and can occur years before the election (Democrats John Delaney announced his entry into the race on 28th July 2017)
-most candidates announce their intentions the year before the election.
-If the incumbent president is a member of that party, there are fewer candidates announced.
-Numbers of candidates vary widely e.g. 2020 election there where 27 democratic candidates and 3 republicans.
What are televised party debates within the invisible primaries? Pros? Cons?
-When each party hold separate debates for their respective candidates which are often televised.
-Has a major impact on candidates success e.g. Rick Perry (Republican candidate) forgot the name of one of the executive departments he promised to close down in 2011 debate, he ended his bid with >1% of the votes.
-These debates can become a political circus
-Focus on media soundbites rather than in-dept analysis.
What is fundraising within the invisible primaries? Pros? Cons?
-candidates are allowed to campaign and advertise through these
-improves poll ratings
-not always an indicator of future success e.g. 2016 Trump only received $25.5 million, placing 5th of the republican candidates even tho he added $18 million of his own money to the campaign, he still only came 3rd behind Ted Cruz & Ban Carson.
What are front runners within the invisible primaries? Pros? Cons?
-the confirmation of the party nominee - the front runner at the end is usually chosen
-1972 in 7/8 election cycles the Republicans front-runner has become the nominee -> important indicator for the republican party.
-Leads to a decrease in number of candidates.
-Doesn’t always confirm candidate as a party nominee e.g. 2004 front runner Howard Dean (Democratic) crashed on the primaries, or in 2008, when front-runner Hillary Clunton & Rudy Giuliani lost to Barack Obama and John McCain (who was in 3rd place).
-Democratic the front-runner has only become nominee in 5/9 election cycles.
Types of primaries?
- Closed
- Open
- Proportional
- Winner takes it all
What are closed primaries? Pros? Cons?
-A primary in which only registered party members can vote in their party’s primary
-Modified primaries are similar to closed – only party members and independents can vote
-New Jersey 2016 primary – had modified primaries
-Ensures that the party is happy with who their candidate is
-Ensures that there is no one trying to to betray the chance for a party to win by choosing weak candidate
-Considering either will become president, all should have a say
-Limits choice of centrists
What are open primaries? Pros? Cons?
-A primary where any registered voter can vote in either party’s primary
-Cross over voting – e.g. Dems can vote in Rep primary
-Democrat primaries in 2008 – cross over voting was an issue - Reps and Inds voted – meant that Obama was chosen
-Quite representative
-Cross over voting is not an issue with competitive candidates
-Choice given to centrists
-They can be used to target certain parties and allow other candidates to win - allows for sabotage
What are proportional primaries? Pros? Cons?
-Primaries where delegates are awarded to the candidates in proportion to the votes they get - these are then sent to the national party conventions
-Threshold is set – minimum % of votes a candidate needs to receive a delegate - ALL dem and rep primaries are now proportional
-New Hampshire 2016 primary – Trump got 11 delegates and 12 were shared among other 4 candidates
-Representative of all
-Proportional vote at the convention
-more choice available
What are winners takes all primaries? Pros? Cons?
-Presidential primaries permitted ONLY by Republicans – whoever gets the most votes wins all of the delegates in the state
-Arizona 2016 primary – Trump got all 58 delegates
-Quick and easy - majoritarian which is favoured
by many
-Less choice - easier to make decision
-Unfair
-Doesn’t allow for direct representation of votes of citizens
Advantages to primaries?
-Gives choices - increases involvement and participation
-Closed primaries ensure votes are not skewed
-Ordinary voters may have increased participation
-Open to outsiders - those who may not be affiliated with a particular party but are interested or passionate
-Test for candidates - how likely the candidate is to win, if they are good candidates
-Staggered length allows a wide range of states to influence outcome - earliest are months before
Disadvantages to primaries?
-In open voting, those of the opposite party may vote for the weakest candidate of the other party
-Winner takes it all primary is unrepresentative
-Voter apathy - so many elections, stop caring
-Too long
-Campaigning is extremely expensive as well as the conventions
-Dominated by the media - can make or break a candidate
-Personal battles - 2016 election - Sanders and Clinton were both Democrat candidates but had many personal battles - less focus on policies
-Less peer review of those who are educated on politics
-Super delegates - politicians or members of dem party are given spot at convention without primary win - only in Democrats
-Focus on candidates not policies
What are the formal functions of national party conventions?
- Choosing party presidential candidate
- Choosing party vice presidential candidate
- Deciding the party platform
What is meant by choosing the party presidential candidate as a formal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
-To win the presidential nomination a candidate must receive an absolute majority of delegate votes
-E.G. 2016 republican convention, 2472 delegates meaning that trump required 1237 votes to win his presidential nomination.
-Ensures that the public has a say in the candidates
-Delegates will not always vote what the people want
What is meant by choosing the party vice presidential candidate as a formal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
-Before 1980 the candidate was announced at the convention but since then they have been announced beforehand
-Allows presidential candidates to pick who they want
-Removes the role of the party during the process
What is meant by deciding the party platform as a formal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
-Party platform is a document containing policies that the candidate intends to pursue if elected president
-the platform committee puts it together
-there may be debates at the convention about parts of the platform, but heated debates have now been avoided with ‘yays’ and ‘nays’
-Ensures a clear party line and allows for informed decisions to be made.
-if the debate gets heated the media can see and portray the party as divided, doesn’t always influence voters.
What are the informal functions of national party conventions?
- Promoting party unity
- Enthusing the party faithful
- Enthusing the ordinary voter
- Post convention bounce
What is meant by promoting party unity as an informal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
Gives parties a chance to heal any internal conflicts
Unity is key for a successful campaign
Not always successful e.g. 2016 ans 2024
What is meant by enthusing the party faithful as an informal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
A chance to ensure that people continue to vote fora particular party and provide support
This key groups are needed for successful elections
-
What is meant by enthusing the ordinary voter as an informal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
Must be achieved through television and the successful candidate’s election speech
First time most voters take notice of the election and candidates
Can lead to a misrepresentation of candidates and policies
What is meant by post convention bounce as an informal function of national party conventions? Pros? Cons?
Leads to an average 6 percentage point increase in support
Provides an indicator of success and work needed for the rest of the campaign
Only signals an election outcome half of the time e.g. Clinton v Trump
National party conventions are important?
-They may show weaknesses within the candidates
-Display party unities
-May bring support from the party
-Only time that parties meet together - parties are state based
-Introduction of candidates - especially if they didnt vote in primaries - first time aware of them
-Acceptance speeches - you can see what their main aims are and if they speak well etc.
-‘Bounce’ - people pay attention to conventions
-Often held in swing states - to get the unaligned, aligned - didnt happen with dems in 2024
-Many voters make their decision based on the convention
National party conventions are no longer important?
-Parties may be overly presented as divided by the media
-They are mainly for show - very little serious politics within them
-Selecting the VP is done before the convention no more
-Candidates now decide through primaries
-Platform mostly agreed prior to convention
-TV coverage reduced
CASE STUDY: invisible primary of 2024 for the Democrats?
Democrat opponents to Biden:
-Marianne Williamson
-Dean Phillips
-Robert F. Kennedy
-DNC rules and bylaws committee provisions - they look at primaries from previous elections and see how it worked and if there are any changes. They decided:
-Iowa no longer to hold first caucus - didn’t represent the pop as a whole - didnt help them predict who would be selected as candidate - took 3 weeks to announce winner of caucus in 2020 and announced wrong person
-New Hampshire no longer to hold the first primary - didn’t represent the pop as a whole - didnt help them predict who would be selected as candidate
-South Caroline followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia (Republicans state legislature said they’d do it when they wish - federal parties can make recommendations but states dont have to listen) and Michigan
-All other states to hold contests after March
CASE STUDY: invisible primary of 2024 for the Republicans?
-Trump had a lot opposition in republicans - divided party - 9 opposed Trump in the running
-Ron Desantis and Nikki Haley - made it to the first primary, the other 7 dropped out
-invisible primary narrows the field not the primary themselves - because of high opinion polls, they get higher fundraising, which leads to higher media coverage - this relationship causes this influence
CASE STUDY: primaries of 2024 for the Republicans? Why did Trump win the primary?
Key states
-IOWA JAN - TRUMP WON 98 OF 99 COUNTIES - DESANTIS DROPS OUT AND SUPPORTS TRUMP
-NEW HAMPSHIRE - TRUMP WON WITH 54% BUT HALEY WON AMONG THE HIGHLY EDUCATED AND MODERATES
Why trump won:
-ANTI-TRUMP VOTE WAS DIVIDED
-TRUMP HAD AUTHORITY OVER THE NATIONAL PARTY AND STATE REPUBLICAN PARTIES - LARA TRUMP MADE CO CHAIR OF THE RNC SO HE HAD GRASP OVER NATIONAL PARTY - THOSE WHO DIDNT SUPPORT TRUMP, SWITCHED PARTIES DROPPED OUT, LEFT POLITICS ETC. - REPUBLICANS THEN BECAME MAGA AS ALL OPPOSITION WAS OUT
-CONSOLIDATED HOLD OVER THE REPUBLICAN ‘BASE’
CASE STUDY: primaries of 2024 for the Democrats?
-Little media coverage as little intra party opposition
-9 primaries saw uncommitted poll over 15% - they want Democrat to win primary but not that specific candidate - in Hawaii, 29% were uncommitted
-Biden ended up with 87% of vote - lowest of any incumbent in 30 years
CASE STUDY: caucuses for 2024 election?
-Only 3 for democrats, Hawaii, Idaho and Wyoming
-Only 6 for republicans, Hawaii, Idaho, Wyoming, Iowa, North Dakota, Utah
-They have very few delegates
What is front loading?
Frontloading - most of the decisions are made at the beginning of the primary elections
Why is front loading controversial?
-58% of Democrat delegates and 61% of republicans were chosen 2.5 monthss before primaries finished
Why this is controversial:
-Favours well known and well financed candidates
-Reduced ability to test presidential qualities of candidates
-Favours large population states
-Reduces opportunities for second thoughts in later voting states - if a candidate does something controversial, the states cannot change their mind
-Campaigning begins earlier - leads to voter apathy
CASE STUDY: Republican Party convention of 2024?
-15-18 JULY, MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN
-TWO DAYS AFTER ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT - LABELLED TRUMP AS A LION - STRONG AND FEARLESS
-SHOWCASED PARTY UNITY
-PRESENTED HIS FAMILY UNITY - ALLOWED HIM TO APPEAR LIKE THE ORDINARY
-MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN – TO THE FORGOTTEN MEN AND WOMEN OF AMERICA
-NOTHING ON ABORTION OR SAME-SEX MARRIAGE
-NO MIKE PENCE
-RESULTED IN A FOUR-POINT INCREASE IN THE POLLS
* JD VANCE ANNOUNCED AS VP PICK
CASE STUDY: Democratic Party convention of 2024?
-19-22 AUGUST, CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
-DELEGATES HELD AN IMPROMPTU SIT-IN OUTSIDE THE HALL TO PROTEST THE ADMINISTRATION’S STANCE ON GAZA
-SPEAKERS SHOWCASED DIVERSITY - OBAMAS SPOKE
-NO POST-CONVENTION BUMP BUT NO SLUMP EITHER
-HARRIS ACCEPTED THE NOMINATION
What is the electoral college?
-538 members
-Reflects the Founding Fathers’ fear of a mass popular vote
-Based on earlier institutions such as the College of Cardinals & holy roman emperor
-Compromise between the masses and Congress - each state has a minimum of 3 electoral college votes (ECV) - one for each congressperson that represents the state
-States allowed to decide how to elect their voters
What is the electoral college like today?
-Washington DC has 3 electoral college votes, resulting in 538 electors and not 535
-Almost all states award their voters on a winner takes it all basis, whoever has largest number of popular votes in the state, gets all of the electoral college votes
-Except Maine and Nebraska who use congressional district method
-No constitutional requirement that stops ECVs being awarded proportionality
What is congressional district voting? Examples? Cons?
The winner of each district is awarded one electroal vote and the winner of the statewide vote gets the other two electoral votes e.g. Nebraska, Biden won single electoral vote in 2nd district and trump won electoral vote from maines 2nd district in the same election
Cons: marginal changes in the last seven elections, Romney would’ve beat Obama in 2012 despite losing 5 million votes, suggesting the system is flawed like the electoral college is
Faithless elector? Example?
The elector can disregard the pledge to vote for their parties candidate and vote for another candidate e.g. 2016 - highest number of these, 4 democrats in Washington - these dont affect election outcome - no faithless electors in 2024
National popular vote? Example?
The total number of votes cast for a candidate by voters in entire US - the winner of popular vote may actually lose e.g. Hillary Clinton in 2016, on all 3 occasions where pop vote winner lost, republicans won
Stalemate? When did this last happen?
If no single candidate has an outright majority, there may be a statement - last time it happened was in 1824 - house chooses president and senate chooses VP - for this to occur, a third party would have to win ECVs
What is a direct election system? Who published it? Pros? Cons?
-Using direct popular vote, not the electoral college - published by the New York Times in 2016
-Pros: more proportional, no more winner takes it all
-Cons: could result in multiplicity of candidates meaning that a president could be elected with less than 50% of the vote, unless a runoff election was held - would drag election process out further, this is unlikely as small population states support the current system
Proportional system? Pros? Cons?
-ECV (electoral college votes) allocated proportionally to the popular vote in each state, electors are unnecessary - abolished electoral college votes
-Pros: fairer to national third parties
-Cons: likely that there would be no majority, leading to a congressional or run off eleciton
Arguments against the electoral college?
-The winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president, as happened with Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
-It frequently exaggerates margins of victory. This was spectacularly evident in 1984 when Ronald Reagan won just under 59% of the popular vote but over 97% of the ECVs.
-Smaller states are overrepresented, e.g. California has one electoral vote per 712,000 people, while Wyoming has one electoral vote per 195,000 people.
-It was drawn up by the Founding Fathers in a very different era politically and when the USA was much smaller and less diverse.
-It encourages candidates to focus all their campaigning on a small number of swing states such as Florida and Ohio.
Arguments for the electoral college?
-It normally delivers the ‘right result, e.g. in 2012 and 2020.
-Reform or abolition only becomes a live issue on those relatively rare occasions when the system ‘gets it wrong.
-The Electoral College reflects the federal nature of the USA and ensures candidates have to campaign in a range of states, not simply the most populated.
-No superior method has gained widespread and bipartisan support. The alternatives have their own problems.
-A nationwide popular vote would lead candidates to focus instead just on large urban areas. The phrase ‘Go hunting where the ducks are’ (from Barry Goldwater, 1964 Republican candidate] still applies.
-Faithless electors have never affected the final election outcome. Also, the issue can be remedied by passing laws requiring electors to vote for their pledged candidate. In addition, it remains a rare occurrence overall. There were none in the 2008, 2012 or 2020 elections, and only one apiece in 2004 and 2000.
What 5 factors impact presidential win?
- Money
- Media
- Issues
- Leadership
- Incumbency
How are campaigns financed? Who donate?
-Political action committee - pull resources donated to parties to influence elections - anyone can donate money to these except corporations and labour unions
-corporations CANNOT try to sway election support
-Individuals, corporation, PACs, Politcal Parties also donate to the campaign candidate
-party committees - Sway election outcome through various strategies, complements indiudals candidates campaign eleciton
Hard money v soft money?
Hard money - regulated by federal election committee - caps on this - any donation is cosndiered as hard money
Soft money - no regulations e.g. some money is spent on party building activities to get more party members, some money that goes from donators may be sent to parties for this - bipartisan campaign reform act of 2002, limited soft money, party spending is now hard money
Reasons why campaign finance should be reformed?
-Soft money has no restriction - richer connections will get you more money
-Super PACs since 2010 after citizens united ruling can bypass restrictions - there are loopholes - created by SCOTUS
-Expenditure got out of control - 2020 election spent more than 2012 and 2016 combined - 2024 election increased even more - $60 billion compared to $50 billion - democrat spending has gone wild e.g. 3 billion in 2020 and trump spent 800 million
-Districts elect representatives in the house based on their jobs - people vote based on wealth
-Only the wealthy or well connected can enter politics
-Business groups outspend Labour group 7:1
-Supreme Court made the problem worse - constitutional amendment needs to be made to allow Congress to limit spending
-Dark money - funds are not disclosed - many do this in congressional elections or state elections with less scrutiny
-Matching funding died out - if you thought you couldnt make enough, Congress would match what you made - the cap is now too low - stopped the evening out of accessing funds
Reasons why campaign finance should not be reformed?
-Works because the candidates can make money off it - money can be made - those who arent rich can make money
-Super PACs arent party affiliated - although there aren’t restrictions, they cant give this to parties
-Fundraising of parties is crucial for democracy and increases involvement
-2016 saw less spending than previous two elections - allowing for inflation
-Candidates need to appeal to all voters not just wealthy donors - Sanders raised money from working individuals
-Hyper partisanship distracts congress not fundraising - bigger distraction and issue, not finance
-Donations allows supporters to show loyal in democratic ways
-Political donations are part of the free market so popular causes attract more funding
-SCOTUS upheld rights of first amendment regarding freedom in political activity
-Most funding is traceable, not based on dark money
How does incumbency influence electoral outcomes? Why does it not?
-Increases chance of success, name recognition, they can look at your achievements and past successes, people can make comparisons e.g. Trump focusing on was life better than it was 4 years ago
-Bad record can also impact
-Not all incumbents are successful, e.g. Biden was losing in the polls during 2024 election
What was incumbency rate in 2022 midterms?
-2022 midterms incumbency rate 94%
How do issues influence electoral outcomes? Why does it not?
-Candidates can focus on policy issues such as immigration - can impact the view people have of them e.g. 2004, foreign policy after 9/11
-2016 and 2024 - trump seemed strong as he wanted to tackle immigration
-Shape the vote of undecided voters
-Abortion didnt have an imapct on the 2024 election
-Some issues arent as importnat to others - vote on other factors
-Issues constantly change, candidates must always change their views and create new policies
How does the media influence electoral outcomes? Why does it not?
-Can project a desired image of opponent e.g. 2012, Obama attacked Romney in the remember ad, portraying in a bad image
-Allows for populism - may be seen as ordinary people e.g. Trump on Joe Rogan or Harris on call her daddy
-2020 - $1.5 billion spent on political commercials from $260 milllion in 2000 - due to closeness of races, passion of polarise partisan supporters
-Harris linked with border czar and her ‘failures’ - leading to increasing drugs and crime
-Media is politically aligned - reinforces this e.g. Fox News is Republican and NBC is democrat support
-Attack ads don’t always work
-social media reinstates voting behaviours
-Trump linked to project 2025, as well as focuses on what he would do if he was elected again e.g. putting profit over people with ‘we are not going back’ (counteracts MAGA)
-Harris spent more on social media more than Trump - spent $12 million on meta and trump spent $600,000
How does leadership influence electoral outcomes? Why does it not?
-Much greater emphasis on individuals characteristics and personalities rather than on parties
-Focus on past record and integrity
-Parties are still needed - cannot rely on individual qualities fully, 2016, lack of personal record was focused on
What were things that prove leadership and personality did and did not influence electoral outcomes?
-42 million followers Trump, 2.4 million followers Republicans
-Trumps past as a criminal was ignored in 2024
-MAGA slogan made by Trump not Republicans
How does money influence electoral outcomes? Why does it not?
-Higher spending candidates have a greater chance of winning elections
-Mainly spent on TV ads called ‘attack ads’ - gain traction
-Money does not guarantee success e.g. Harris spent more than Trump in 2024 yet she still lost
-Depends on how the money is spent, who target audience is
-Once Biden pulled in July, historic floods of cash poured into Harris campaign (Washington post) - raised $126 million in 4 days from 1.4 million donators
-44% of Harris’s money was made up of contributions worth less than $200 and trump was 29%
Who spends more? Incumbents or challengers?
-Incumbents spend more than challengers e.g. 2016, $8.7 million raised by incumbents compared to $600,000 e.g. 2024, $2 billion raised by Harris but $1.5 million by Trump
When was corporations not being allowed to be involved in elections challenged? In what? What was the FEC reaction? What did SCOTUS say? What has this led to?
-challenged in 2010 in citizens united vs federal election committee
-FEC said that they couldn’t do this as they were trying to make a film smearing Clinton in 2008
-SCOTUS as it would be agaisnt free speech and would lead down a slipper slop of regulation
-Potential for corporation to exert undue influence through large contributions and bring foreign interests to US
What did the Bipartisan Campagin Reform Act do?
Corporations can no longer attempt to sway elections, electioneering activities like spending money ion ads to influence elections
What can Super PACs do that normal PACs cant?
Accept unlimited funds from individuals whereas pacs and corporate treasuries cannot accept funds from corporations - focus on issues and not parties
What are the 2 types of influences on voting behaviour?
Primacy factors - long term influences on voting behaviour
Recency factors - short term influences on voting behaviour
What are the 9 primacy factors that may influence voting behaviour? How?
- Gender - women more likely to vote Dem and men vote Rep
- Race - AAs overwhelmingly, Asians and Hispanics vote dem and white support reps by smaller margins
- Age - young vote dem, old vote rep
- Self declared political philosophy - liberals vote dem, conservatives vote rep
- Religion - evangelicals vote rep, non religious vote dem
- Sexual orientation - LGBTQ+ vote dem
- Geography - rural areas vote rep, urban areas vote dem
- Personalities - people vote for those with similar backgrounds and experience
- Wealth - varied
What are the 3 recency factors that may influence voting behaviour? How?
- Mood of nation - priorities of voters based on events
- Issues and policies - politicians tailor policies to appeal to their base and get support of inds
- October surprises - unexpected events late in the election
How did gender, race, age, religion and wealth impact voting behaviour in 2024? (Primacy factors)
Gender: 53% of women voted for Harris (down from 57% in 2020) 55% of men plumped for Trump (up from 53% in 2020)
Race: 46% of Latinos voted for Trump compared to 32% in 2020. 39% of Asians also voted Republican compared to 34% in 2020.
Age: 43% of those under 30 voted for Trump, an increase from 36% in 2020. There was a drop in the number of over 65’s voting Republican (down to 49%) but an increase otherwise in those over 30.
Religion: 82% of white evangelicals supported Trump (up from 76% in 2020)
Wealth: 46% of those earning over
$100,000 pa voted for Trump while 47% of those earning under $50,000 pa voted for Harris
How did personalities, geography, sexual orientation and self declared political philosophy impact voting behaviour in 2024? (Primacy factors)
Personality: Trump had previously served as president
Geography: 59% of urban areas were won by Harris, 64% of small towns and rural areas backed Trump (up from 57% in 2020)
Sexual orientation: 84% of LGBTQ+ people voted for Harris and the Democrats
Self declared political philosophy: 90% of conservatives backed Trump (up from 85% in 2020), 91% of liberals backed Harris (up from 89% in 2020), 40% of moderates backed Trump (up from 34% in 2020)
What are the democrats and Republican core voter coalitions? Why are core voter coalitions important?
Republican - evangelical, white, wealthier, conservative, male, white, southern, older, small towns and rural areas, fearful of large scale immigration, suspicious of big government
Democrat - atheist, liberal, northern, women, younger, ethnic minorities, LGBTQ+, urban areas, blue collar unionised workers, supporters of causes such as feminism and gun control
^^ importnat as you need to make sure that your policies appeal to them, focus on voter turnout to see who you need to convince, what are your key policy pledges
What are realigning elecitons?
Where a particular group of voters changes or realigns with a fresh political party or candidate and these changes have a lasting impact and set a pattern in voting behaviour
2 examples of realigning elecitons?
- 1968 election
- 2016 election
How was the 1968 election a realigning one?
-between Nixon and Humphrey, where the new right (led by Nixon) opposed increased liberalism which happened due to the civil rights movement and the rise of feminism
-For example, the southern strategy where the republicans appealed to whites in the south alienated by civil rigths legislaiton, this distrusted the democrats solid south that was established by FDR
-This was a a realigning election because the southern conservatives now voted Republican, leading to Republican dominance.
How was the 2016 election a realigning one?
-between Trump v Clinton where Trump won as a political outsider like was done in 1952 by Eisenhower
-It was seen as a victory for populism over experience with Bernie Sanders coming close to defeating Clinton in the Democrat primaries
-This was a realigning election because the previously Democratic white blue-collar workers in Ohio swung behind Trump due to his promises of more jobs, revealing a growing gap between urban and multi-ethnic America and white small-town/rural America with voting in record numbers for ‘their’ candidate
-Whites in the Rust Belt appear to be voting more like white in the South, however 3 Rust Belt states reverted back to Democrat in 2020.
What is direct democracy?
A form of democratic government when all citizens participate directly and at an equal level in voting, making decisions and passing laws e.g. Brexit, Scottish independence
What are the 3 types of direct democracy?
- Propositions
- Referendums
- Recall elections
What are propositions? What are the types? 2016 example? 2025 example?
-also known as initiatives or ballot measures - citizens place proposed laws, or even proposed constitutional amendments on the state ballot, which can bypass state legislature
-2 types: direct (proposals go directly to ballot), indirect (submitted to state legislature who decides what further action should follow)
-For example, 2016, minimum wage increase were approved in Arizona and Maine, and gun law propositions to allow for background checks were accepted in California but rejected in Maine.
-2025 - The Idaho State Legislature referred a constitutional amendment to the ballot that would provide that the Idaho State Legislature to have power to legalize marijuana, narcotics, or other psychoactive substances
What are referendums? How are they different from propositions? Example?
-Electoral device - voters can veto a bill passed by their state, available in all states but there are some measures in some states that have certain requirements
-Differ from propositions because they follow on what has been done rather than initiate something
-24 states have popular referendums such as Colorado - voters gather signatures demanding referendum if state passes a law they don’t approve of - makes a law go void
-State taxes - in 2012, 115 referendums put on ballot
What are recall elections? Are they used often? Cons? Pros? Example?
-Voters in a state can remove an elected official from office before their terms has expired
-Rarely used as they require a lot of public signatures - only used for low level officials
-Increase democratic accountability but some may see them as demeaning
-If they were frequent - they would destabilise the governing process
-Many sees that voters should have to live with the consequences of the actions of elected officials
-E.g. 2003 - gray Davies was defeated by Arnold Schwarzenegger
Advantages of direct democracy? Disadvantages?
-Allows for democracy - agaisnt tyranny
-Federalism - direct democracy allows this
-No manipulation of result to allow minorities to be supported
-Does require signatures - make sure that your proposal is popular
Reasons why direct democracy helps the gov?
-Allows voters to have a direct say in framing laws
-Promotes variation in laws between states
-Improves accountability of state officials
-Adds another check and balance
-Increases opportunities for political participation
-Pressure groups often get involved
Reasons why direct democracy hinders government?
-Can lead to tyranny of the majority
-Ordinary voters may not understand complex laws fully
-Can lead to inconsistencies between states
-Undermines representative government who are experienced
-Increases opportunities for stalemate and stalling
-Adds to democratic overload
-Gives pressure groups disproportionate influence
What is split ticket voting?
When a voter decides to vote for candidates from different parties in the same eleciton - when someone votes for a Republican to be president but a democrat to be your senator
Abstention? Voter fatigue?
Not turning out to vote
Too many elections that voters just cba anymore
What has happened to split ticket voting over time? Why?
-Split ticket voting has declined since 1980s being under 5% in 2020 but 50% in the 1980s, and in 2016 all senate race corresponded with how that state voted in presidential election
-This is because of the widening divide between democrats and republicans on policy and because Americans are more liberal or conservative in their views (have become more partisan and polarised).
Why do poeple split their votes? Consequences?
-People split their vote because it reflect preferences for personalities and candidates over parties, US parties are broad church (focus on a wide range of issues) but this is less true today, and the number of elected officials offers many opportunities to split one ballot
-It can lead to a divided government, it can lead to split senate delegations with one from each party which is less common but the 2020-2022 senate had 6 states with split senate representation such as Montana
-Finally, it can affect voting behaviours and actions and can make representatives careful with how much support is shown for the president (Trumps least strong supporters came from split states).
US turnout in presidential elecitons since 2016? UKs turnout in ge in 2024? Why was turnout so high in 2020?
-Turnout low in us and uk but US in 2016 only 56% of votes compared to 67% in 2020 to 64% in 2024 - 60% in uk in 2024
-67% turnout which was a record due to Trump being polarise and the left wanted him out and right wanted him in but it decreased in 2024
Why is there an abstention crisis in the US compared with UK?
-Americans register to vote by themselves and it is up to them to register as it is their decision
-in the UK its law to register
-postal voting can also be hard in some states making it hard for those who cannot leave their homes to vote
-there can be a limited number of candidates standing so people dont have choice so dont want to vote due to high high signatures needed
-in some states if you have been in prison you cannot vote
-some states have strict voter ID laws (means that lower class don’t vote as id is expensive)
-no independent candidates mean people cba
-people feel like their vote has no impact
-high incumbency rates mean that there is a wasted vote
What types of elecitons are most affected by low turnout?
Primaries most affected by lower turnout - means that extremists are voted in because only those politically involved vote increasing hyper partisanship, suggests that Americas system has problems
How did 9/11 influence voting behaviour?
-Led to increased nationalism and a “rally around the flag” - increased support for G/ W. Bush and Republicans
-Voters from states affected like New York were more likely to vote Republican
-Economy was no longer the big issue in elections, national security and immigration replaced it - has continued since then - republicans focus on national security and dems focus on govenrment support
-There was also the War on Terror & the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and the Iraq War in 2003
-Kerry was presented as weak on security during the 2004 presidential campaign
-Political divisions strengthened
-People started to worry about civil liberties due to the Patriot Act, government surveillance
How did hurricane Katrina influence voting behaviour?
-Hurricane Katrina - 2005
-Bush faced criticism - slow and ineffective response - led to decreased confidence in the government and the FEMA and republicans in general - Federal Emergency Management Agency
-AA’s in New Orleans most affected - people though the gov was intentionally slow to help Black communities - political participation rose - in 2006 and 2008, black voter turnout increased - Dems won control of both houses for first time since 1994 and republicans lost in 2006 mid terms
-Aided Obama’s success in 2008 - promised change in poverty, racial equality and how to react to disasters
-Dem voters from New Orleans moved to other states - impacted demographics
-Increased scrutiny of state gov - impact on elections in Louisiana and Mississippi
How did the 2008 financial crisis impact voting behaviour?
-Response to the crisis such as bank bailouts like TARP were unpopular
-Reps and McCain blamed for the crisis - Laissez faire attitude attacked - not suitable to control economy
-Increased support for dems in 2008 especially because of policy of change in social equality and progressive economic policy which would regulate business - happened just before election - economic issues once again were the biggest impact on how people voted - resulted in 365-173 result
-2008 increased dem control of Congress (won both houses) - but 2010 midterms saw independents attacks dems for no quick recovery - led to the Tea Party movement (opposed government spending and bailouts)
-The young lost confidence in both parties - increased polarisation - increased anti-establishment movements through Sanders and Trump
