Unit 4: War On Terror Flashcards
Define: Weapons of Mass Destruction
Weapons which kill large numbers of people and cause massive damage to buildings and other structures.
Term WMD normally taken to cover nuclear weapons and chemical and biological weapons
Define: Nuclear Proliferation
Spread/growth of nuclear weapons
Define: Vertical Proliferation
States which already have nuclear weapons and are getting more
Define: Horizontal Proliferation
Countries acquiring nuclear weapons
Despite their role in the arms race, the superpowers were keen to prevent horizontal proliferation - why?
Takes away from the superpowers power
What treaty was signed in 1968?
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Why were not all countries prepared to sign the NPT?
France and Chine saw the NPT as an attempt to freeze the nuclear status quo in favour of the superpowers and refused to sign until 1991
Several states who wanted nuclear weapons refused to sign - Israel, Pakistan and India
Others did sign but kept their nuclear programmes secret, like Iraq
Why do countries want nuclear weapons?
Prestige
Self-defence
Stability
What was the main aim of the NPT:
Bargain between the nuclear and non-nuclear states
Pledged their cooperation in stemming the spread of nuclear terminology
Agreement that non-nuclear states would not try to acquire weapons
In return nuclear states would share peaceful nuclear technology
How successful was the 1968 NPT?
NPT made it more difficult to acquire nuclear weapons and could be seen as a success in that the spread of nuclear weapons has been slower than was feared in the 1960s.
However, several states have still pursued nuclear weapons programmes and the NPT has failed to prevent this
Reasons as to why the NPT (1968) was not successful:
Nuclear materials have become widely available as a result of the widespread use of nuclear reactors for civil purposes
Scientific expertise has spread
Export controls designed to prevent the transfer of technology for military purposes have been weak
The ending of the Cold War greatly reduced the threat the world faced from the nuclear weapons, because:
Nuclear war between Russia and the West now seemed highly unlikely
START 1 treaty agreed that the end of the Cold War had slashed US/Russian stockpiles
Britain and France have also cut number of their warheads
The ending of the Cold War greatly reduced the threat the world faced from the nuclear weapons, because:
Nuclear war between Russia and the West now seemed highly unlikely
START 1 treaty agreed that the end of the Cold War had slashed US/Russian stockpiles
Britain and France have also cut number of their warheads
When was the extension of the NPT?
1995
Why was their resistance to the NPT extension in 1995?
Nuclear Powers had not done enough to meet their promises to disarm in the original NPT (including Britain and France)
‘Threshold’ nuclear states wouldn’t join e.g. India, Pakistan and Israel
What was the eventual agreement of the NPT extension 1995?
5 declared states promised to move towards disarmament and would agree a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, which implied the goal of disarmament
In return, non-nuclear weapons countries would continue to renounce any nuclear ambitions
Define: CTBT?
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996
What was the CTBT 1996?
CTBT was signed in September 1996 by the 5 declared nuclear powers and about 60 other states - but only comes into effect when all 44 nations known to have some nuclear capability sign
What were the subsequent developments following the CTBT?
Having refused to sign the CTBT in 1996, India and Pakistan badly undermined the cause of non-proliferation by carrying out nuclear tests and joining the ranks of declared nuclear powers in 1998
In 2003 N Korea left the NPT and carried out a test in 2006
5 original nuclear powers were not really intent on eliminating their nuclear weapons
Why is there a strong case for arguing that it is still in the world’s interest for the treaties to succeed:
NPTs inspection regime is not perfect but makes it more difficult for non nuclear states to gain nuclear materials
CTBTs international monitoring system and on-site inspections would prevent or slow the development of complex weapons
Define: Terrorism
Use or threat of action designed to influence the government or to intimidate the public, made for the purpose of advancing a political, religious, racial or ideological cause
Why has religion become an important factor in global politics?
Growth of Islamism and Jihadi terrorism in the Muslim world, partly as a response to the spread of Western influence
Western political, military and economic involvement in the Islamic world has been widespread and the influence of Western culture has spread as a result of globalisation, bringing with it ideas and practices unacceptable to conservative Muslims.
Many Muslims have reacted by turning to Islamist movements which seek to restore traditional Islamic values and bring about states based on Islam.
Religion adds to the difficulty of settling the Israel-Palestinian conflict or the tensions between India and Pakistan
Most extreme manifestation has been the growth of support among a minority of Islamists for the jihadi ideology associated with Bin Laden and al Qaeda, which aims to strike at the US and the West, topple pro-western regimes across the Muslim world and establish an Islamic Caliphate
Jihadis have made skilful use of the global communications media to spread their message and this has helped to radicalise some young Muslims in the West, resulting in attacks like the 7/7 bombings
ISIS has taken up the Al Qaeda’s place as the primary militant Islamist group
For some, the growth of radical Islam seems to confirm Samuel Huntingdon’s thesis of a ‘Clash of Civilisations’
Why has it been argued that we are in a new era of warfare?
Some relate to the nature of the wars being fought - for instance the distinction has been drawn between ‘new’ and ‘old’ wars - Mary Kaldor and others
Other theories relate to the implications of technology on warfare. The ‘Revolution in Military Affairs’ suggest that information technology and advanced weaponry have altered the nature of warfare for the advanced military powers
New forms of warfare are also evolving - with nations and armed forces so dependent on satellites and computing systems, war could be extended into space in order to disable satellites and cyber-warfare is becoming a military priority.
Why has nuclear arms control been so difficult to bring about?
Main multilateral arms control initiative has been the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which seeks to secure total nuclear disarmament by existing nuclear powers and prevent the spread of weapons to new states. Limited effectiveness - none of the original nuclear powers has disarmed and there has been further proliferation of nuclear weapons since 1968
Original nuclear weapon countries are all powerful states and 3 of them are the former, actual or aspiring superpowers. There is no question of the international community being able to pressure them into disarmament
The powers that weren’t the original nuclear weapons states but which have subsequently had programmes or gained weapons, have done so for reasons seem fully legitimate to them and which provide strong incentives to evade controls
The widespread dissemination of scientific knowledge and of the infrastructure needed to produce WMD has made it harder to prevent proliferation than in the past
Proliferation is hard to prevent because the international controls are relatively weak and evaded with ease by signatories of the various treaties
When was the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
1968
What was the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which seeks to secure total nuclear disarmament by existing nuclear powers and prevent the spread of weapons to new states.
What threats are posed by nuclear proliferation?
Liberals would argue that the risks are high and must be reduced by the intensification of international non-proliferation efforts
Most serious danger is the increased risk of war
Another threat is Nuclear Terrorism
Some risks exaggerated and realists see potential benefits in wider proliferation
Reasons why realists see potential benefits in wider proliferation:
It may still be possible to prevent proliferation through controls under the NPT and CTBT or other measures ranging from diplomacy and trade inducements
If further proliferation occurs Southern countries will learn to live with the bomb
Arguably these countries only want weapons for defensive purposes and have a point in refusing to accept the hypocritical division of the world into nuclear ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ that existing nuclear powers wish to perpetuate via the NPT
Maybe regimes like Iran would even become more cautious and responsible were they to have a weapon and feel more secure.
What are the characteristics of contemporary international terrorism?
The jihadis aims are influenced by an extreme form of Islamism and they see themselves as fighting against the influence of the West within the Muslim world.
The jihadis nowadays are a loose network of local groups who claim some form of affiliation with al Qaeda, like Bokko Haraam in Nigeria
The jihadis are able to take advantage of globalisation to organise their attacks and spread their propaganda
Terrorist attacks involves forms of asymmetric warfare. Unlike many national terrorist groups they seek to inflict mass casualties
Due to improvements in security and US attacks on al Qaeda, jihadi attacks within the West itself have become rare since the mid 2000s and most are now on Western targets in the Muslim world
Arguments there is a serious threat posed by global terrorism:
Poses a serious threat particularly to powerful states like the US that aren’t at risk of conventional attack
Terrorists tactics are potentially devastating - they seek mass casualties and it is hard to avoid suicide bombers
Terror attacks have also evolved - terrorists have proven able to adapt to the tactics being used by security services as needed
It has been facilitated by globalisation - this makes it easier for terrorists to communicate, radicalise new recruits and travel
Though Al Qaeda has been partly dismantled by western attacks, jihadi terrorism has become established in a range of weakly governed states
Greatest threat of all is that terrorists will get hold of WMD - currently a major concern in the Syrian conflict
The terrorist groups have provoked the US into responses - from Bush’s ‘War on Terror’ to Obama’s increased drone attacks - that have arguably made the problem even more serious
ISIS has become a considerable power in the Middle East and had a significant impact on the regions stability
Arguments the threat posed by global terrorism is exaggerated:
Terrorism is a psychological rather than a military strategy, the weapon of the weak.
The casualties, though appalling, aren’t remotely comparable to those a state can inflict
It rarely succeeds in gaining its full objectives: there is little prospect of terrorism alone overthrowing a state
It is hard to defeat terrorists militarily but their violence can be contained, Al Qaeda has been weakened and it is much harder for attacks to be staged in the West due to the improved security
Some critics of the ‘War on Terror’ argue politicians are using the ‘politics of fear’ - deliberately exaggerating the threat to justify restricting personal freedoms and raising military budgets
Ultimately ISIS has yet to stand its toughest threat - establishing itself over a continued period of time
Arguments the US-led ‘war on terror’ since 2001 has been a success:
Key members of the 9/11 plot have been killed or captured, including Bin Laden. The Al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan have been destroyed
Though jihadi groups loosely linked to al-Qaeda now operate in many parts of the Islamic world, they are very fragmented and mostly control sparsely populated areas
New forms of counter-terrorist cooperation have been established at governmental level and among allies, e.g. NATO and the EU.
Increased counter-terrorist measures have limited the number of further atrocities and made the movement of arms harder.
Now much more difficult for militants to mount large scale operations in the West itself
Bin Laden failed in his main aim - to rouse the Islamic masses in countries like Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to rebel against their governments and establish an Islamic Caliphate.
Arguments the US led ‘war on terror’ since 2001 has not been a successful:
Success has been limited - US was unable to stop Al Qaeda regrouping in Pakistan and continuing to direct plots
Al Qaeda has become a global ‘franchise’ and its ideology has radicalised Muslims in many parts of the World e.g. 7/7 attacks
Some aspects of the ‘War against Terror’ played into Bin Laden’s hands and reinforced his message that Muslims are under attack and have a duty to unite and fight a holy war against the West. e.g. Iraq war
Bush’s decision to divert the ‘War on Terror’ into an attack on Iraq has also been counterproductive for the US and its allies
Afghanistan was neglected after 2001, without enough Western troops or aid - the Taliban has been able to stage a comeback
Long term result of the Iraq War will be to weaken Iraq, and to enormously strengthen the regional influence of Iran, a foe of the US ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution
ISIS has developed as a major power in the Middle East, taking advantage of the chaos that the ‘War on Terror’ partially created
The sour aftermath of the ‘Arab Spring’ threatens to undermines the struggle against terrorism
Al Qaeda’s influence over a loose framework of jihadi groups and as an ideology continues and some of the West’s actions in the ‘War’ have reinforced the appeal of its message to angry young Muslims, above all the Iraq war.
The Cold War and ideological conflict:
Political ideology - Cold War, a capitalist, free market economic system and democracy and the USSR, China and their aisles with communist political and economic systems
In reality many of the regimes the US backed in the ‘Third World’ were dictatorships torn by class conflict e.g. Vietnam
During this period other causes of conflict didn’t vanish, but struggles rooted in other issues, e.g. Ethnic conflicts were frequently presented in ideological terms
End of the Cold War brought an end to this phase of ideological conflict - Soviet communism was discredited by the collapse of the USSR
Does ideological conflict still exist?
Russia under Putin has developed an authoritarian political system based on nationalism and state power
Shift in global power to China. China’s model of modern but authoritarian political leadership and state guided capitalism is more attractive in some parts of the world than Western democracy
‘Identity politics’:
One of the most widespread forms of conflict in the post Cold War world has been ethnic - many of the Civil Wars have been broken out since 1991 have been the result of the attempts by ethnic minorities to break away to form their own states or join others
Many of these conflicts broke out in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR and Yugoslavia, when longstanding ethnic tensions suppressed by communism flared up again - for instance the wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s
Many of the civil wars in Africa are ethnic conflicts, such as The Rwandan genocide
Religion has emerged as a powerful motivation for conflict:
The competing claims of religions have undoubtedly caused conflict in the past and continue to do so today
In recent times, the most obvious development has been the rise of violent forms of Islamism as a type of identity politics
‘War on Terror’ since 2001 has been success:
No 9/11 scale attacks since - States>NSAs
Implemented democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq - Democratic Peace Theory, no wars between democracies
Decapitated leadership - Realist argument that military force + hard power necessary
‘War on Terror’ since 2001 has not been a success:
Al Qaeda and ISIS risen - strong brand, e.g. Present in Yemen + Nigeria - helped by globalisation as brand has greater power as can be accessed around the world
Many small attacks since e.g. Paris + London - Globalisation has increased the spread of radical ideologies
Afghanistan government = failing + Iraq = lost democracy due to ISIS
Rise of Identity Politics:
Conflicts broke out in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR + Yugoslavia when longstanding ethnic tensions suppressed by communism flared up again, for instance wars in Croatia, Bosnia + Kosovo in the 1990s
Religion as a global issue:
Growth of Islamism and Jihadi terrorism in the Muslim world, partly as a response to the spread of Western influence
For some growth of radical seems to confirm Samuel Huntington’s thesis of a ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory
Clash of Civilisations thesis:
Tensions arise due to cultural conflicts
The ‘War on Terrorism’ and Arab Spring can be seen as evidence either side of the argument of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory
Islam v West:
‘War on Terror’ - coined term by Bush
‘New Wars’ ideas:
Kaldor Theory - New Wars take place in the context of the collapse of states by loose groupings of states and non-state actors, often militia groups without uniforms. Formal battles are rare and much of the violence is directed against civilians
Guerrilla Warfare:
The use of hit and run tactics by small, mobile groups of irregular forces operating in territory controlled by a hostile, regular force
Asymmetrical Warfare:
War fought between opponents with clearly unequal levels of military, economic + technological power, in which warfare strategies tend to be adapted to the needs of the West
Blurring of Civilian/military divide in war:
Civilian populations have increasing been the target of military action (through the use of land mines, suicide bombs, vehicle bombs and terrorism generally)
Changing native of armies + security forces
Nature of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs):
Weapons which kill large numbers of people + cause massive damage to buildings + other structures
Usually refers to nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons
Horizontal Proliferation:
Countries acquiring weapons
Vertical Proliferation:
States which already have nuclear weapons + are getting more
Proliferation:
Spread/growth of Nuclear Weapons
Spread of nuclear proliferation:
9 countries today have nuclear weapons: US, Russia, UK, France, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan + Israel
Only five of the countries with nuclear weapons are legal - China, France, Russia, UK, USA
Reasons for nuclear proliferation:
Prestige - India
Self-defence/Security - Pakistan + Israel = Security Dilemma
Stability - USSR/France
Pros of nuclear proliferation:
Creates stability - MAD
Countries only want nuclear weapons for defensive purposes and have a point that would create greater security
Maybe regimes like Iran would even become more cautious if have a weapon
Cons of nuclear proliferation:
Liberals would argue that the risks are high + must be reduced by the use of international non-proliferation
Increased risk of war
Nuclear terrorism
Attempts at non-proliferation:
1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Extension of the NPT, 1995
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, 1996
Different types of terrorism:
Left Wing Revolutionary Groups ‘
National Liberation Groups - IRA
Groups seeking religious/ political aims
Single issue terrorism/loner terrorism
Nature of Islamist terrorism:
Global nature of this form of terrorism
Aims to inflict attacks on West, rousing the masses across the Islamic world for Islam against the West + their own rulers + creation of an Islamic caliphate purged of corrupt influences
Significance of terrorism - it is a threat:
Terrorists tactics are potential devastating - seek mass casualties
Been facilitated by globalisation - easy for terrorists to communicate + radicalise
Terrorists could get hold of WMD
Significance of terrorism - it isn’t a threat:
Rarely succeeds in gaining its full objectives
Violence can be contained - much harder for attacks to be staged in West due to improved security
Politicians using ‘Politics of Fear’
Methods used to counter terrorism:
Drones - Jihadi John killed in drone strike in Syria
Targeted Killing - Bin Laden
Intelligence Services
Bombings
Military Action
Diplomatic co-operation
Ways in which ‘War on Terror’ has been successful:
Killed leader of Al-Qaeda - Bin Laden 2011
Many attacks have been prevented
ISIS being pushed back - regaining Mosul
Ways in which ‘War on Terror’ hasn’t been successful:
Since Western powers left Afghanistan, been a resurgence in Taliban
Failed to tactically defeat ideological aspects of terrorism
Antagonised Islamic world encouraging terrorism - Iraq War
