Unit 4 AOS 2 : Key Knowledge (Armed Conflict) Flashcards
Armed Conflict
Occurs when there is conflict between a state and one or more non-state armed groups or among non-state armed groups
Causes
Sectarianism
- Divisive politics within a state’s borders, which the state is unable to resolve through peaceful governmental means
- Sectarian violence refers to religious, political or cultural conflict between two or more groups
Eg. Yemeni Civil War (2014-) and Syrian Civil War (2011-)
War as an instrument of state policy - When states employ war to achieve their national interests
- States have military power at their disposal, and some states will opt to use their militaries to pursue their national interests
Eg. Russia-Ukraine War (2022)
War on Terror
- Specific cause of the war in Afghanistan
Ideology
- States/organisations who have opposing views
Russia’s insecurity over NATO expansion
- Specific cause of the Russian Invasion
Yemeni Civil War
- Ongoing humanitarian crisis since 2015
- Saudi-backed government attempting to end an insurrectionist movement led by the Houthi rebels (Shia sect in Yemeni society)
- Houthi rebels are backed by Iran
- Up to 250000 killed due to famine, 150000 casualties of war
- Saudi-led coalition intervention against the Houthis, largely supplied by western countries such as US
- For Iran, supporting the revolt in Yemen is “a good way to bleed the Saudis”, Iran’s regional and ideological rival
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are said to support the Houthis
- Accused of arming and training the Houthis, confirmed to provide “direct support” in 2015 by a Houthi official
- 2016, the U.S. Navy reportedly intercepted weapons from Iran believed to be headed for Houthi rebels (AK-47 rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers)
- 14th September 2019, drones were used to attack oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in Saudi Arabia
- Houthi movement claimed responsibility, though the United States has asserted that Iran was behind the attack
- Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that “Yemeni people are exercising their legitimate right of defence … the attacks were a reciprocal response to aggression against Yemen for years.”
Yemeni Civil War - Responses
UNSC Resolution #2216
Demanded Houthis withdraw from occupied areas, relinquish all seized arms, embargoed all arms sales to Houthis
Stockholm Agreement
(2018)
Laid out agreement between Houthis and Yemen government for a prisoner swap, the creation of a demilitarized zone around the Red Sea humanitarian trade corridor and formation of a committee to discuss the future of the contested city of Taiz
Designed to reopen crucial humanitarian supplies into the country
UN Ceasefire
April 2022, the UN brokered a ceasefire (so far successful)
Has been extended until October 2nd, 2022
Example of crisis diplomacy
US
2018, Imposed sanctions on Iran’s IRGC, which was also listed as a designated terrorist organization by the US over its role in providing support for the Houthis (eg. manufacturing ballistic missiles)
Yemeni Civil War - Responses
UNSC Resolution #2216
Demanded Houthis withdraw from occupied areas, relinquish all seized arms, embargoed all arms sales to Houthis
Stockholm Agreement
(2018)
Laid out agreement between Houthis and Yemen government for a prisoner swap, the creation of a demilitarized zone around the Red Sea humanitarian trade corridor and formation of a committee to discuss the future of the contested city of Taiz
Designed to reopen crucial humanitarian supplies into the country
UN Ceasefire
April 2022, the UN brokered a ceasefire (so far successful)
Has been extended until October 2nd, 2022
Example of crisis diplomacy
US
2018, Imposed sanctions on Iran’s IRGC, which was also listed as a designated terrorist organization by the US over its role in providing support for the Houthis (eg. manufacturing ballistic missiles)
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- 24th February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014
- Caused Europe’s largest refugee crisis since WWII with around 7.2 million Ukrainians fleeing the country
- Approx. 5,600 civilian casualties confirmed so far
Lead up
- Prior to the invasion, Russia amassed up to 190,000 troops along its border with Ukraine
- It also recognised the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, two self-proclaimed breakaway quasi-states in the Donbas
- The next day, the Federation Council of Russia authorised the use of military force, and Russian troops promptly advanced into both territories calling it a “peacekeeping mission”
- Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in a televised address announced the invasion as a “special miliary operation” to “demilitarise and de-nazify” Ukraine
Responses
UN
April 2022, UNGA adopted a resolution to suspend Russia’s membership of the UN Human Rights Council
UNGA/12407 condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, demanding Russia end its invasion of Ukraine and withdraw all forces
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, “End hostilities in Ukraine now. Silence the guns now. Open the door to dialogue and diplomacy now.” And “The fighting in Ukraine must stop. Enough is enough.”
US
US President Joe Biden called Putin a “war criminal” and that he is “is trying to wipe out the idea of being able to be Ukrainian”
Has committed more than $13.5 billion in security assistance since the beginning of the invasion
World Leaders Condemning
European Union committed to €1.5 billion to support the capabilities and resilience of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the protection of the Ukrainian civilian population
Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, “unacceptable” and “grave violation of international law”
German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, invasion a “serious mistake” of Putin’s
Former Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, “unprovoked, unlawful, unwarranted, unjustified attacks and threats and intimidation that has been imposed by Russia on Ukraine” and “They’re not peacekeepers. They’re invaders”
France
Emmanuel Macron had a phone call four days before the invasion with Putin
Mr Putin suggests that France should negotiate with pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine
“I don’t know where your lawyer learned the law”
“And I don’t know what lawyer could tell you that in a sovereign country legislation is proposed by separatist groups and not by the democratically elected authorities.”
Mr Putin replied that the Ukrainian government was not democratically elected
“They came to power in a bloody coup”
ICC
Opened investigation into crimes against humanity in Ukraine since 2013 and war crimes in the 2022 invasion
Team sent to the Ukraine region to “begin collecting evidence”
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs declared that it would provide €500 million of extra funding to the ICC and would increase the support “if need be”
ICJ
Ruled that Russia “shall immediately suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February”
Whilst the verdicts are binding, the court has no direct means of enforcing them and there is no indication that Moscow will abide
Challenges to achieving effective resolutions
- Veto Power of the P5 (eg. Russia vetoed UNSC resolution condemning its actions + vetoed 15 draft resolutions on Syria since 2011)
- UNGA Resolutions are non-binding
- Crisis Diplomacy
- Lack of International Cooperation
- Issues with enforcement by ICC (eg. Russia withdrew from ICC in 2016)
Key Aspects: Intervention
Eg. Saudi Arabia in Yemen
- 2015, a Saudi-led coalition launched an intervention in the Yemeni Civil War in response to calls from President Hadi of Yemen, for military support after he was ousted by the Houthi movement
- Former President Obama “authorized the provision of logistical and intelligence support” to the Saudi-led military coalition
- Saudi Arabia contributed 100 warplanes and 150,000 soldiers to the military operation and estimated to be spending $200 million per day
- Saudi framed the conflict in sectarian terms, insisting Iran was supporting the Houthis
- Intervention initially consisted of a bombing campaign on Houthi rebels and later a naval blockade and the deployment of ground forces into Yemen
- Condemned to have a worsening effect on the “humanitarian disaster” in Yemen
- Iran condemned intervention as “US-backed aggression”
Key Aspects: War as an instrument of state policy
Eg. Russian Invasion on Ukraine
- Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in a televised address announced the invasion as a “special miliary operation” to “demilitarise and de-nazify” Ukraine
- Putin claims that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people”, and Ukraine is the “little brother” that has been led astray by the West and must be reincorporated into the family (Ukraine had desires to join NATO, which Russia does not want on its borders)
- Ukraine is historically linked with Russia, but it achieved independence in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed
Key Aspects: Prosecuting war crimes in international law
- Opened investigation into crimes against humanity in Ukraine since 2013 and war crimes in the 2022 invasion
- Team sent to the Ukraine region to “begin collecting evidence”
- French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs declared that it would provide €500 million of extra funding to the ICC and would increase the support “if need be”
- CC relies on member countries to assist with investigation and enforcement
- Withdrawal from the ICC, means that a state has no legal obligation to cooperate with the ICC
- Eg. Russia withdrew from the ICC in 2016, meaning it will be difficult to arrest suspects located in Russia in relation to its 2022 Invasion of Ukraine
