Unit 4 (A) - probability Flashcards
What is a random process
Situation where all possible out
What is an outcome
Result of a random process
What is an event
collection of outcomes
What is a simulation
A way to model random events such that the simulated outcomes closely match the real-world outcomes
What is the law of large numbers
Simulated probabilites seem to get closer to true probability as number of trials increase
How to conduct a sim
Describe how the random digits will imitate the trial (what digit represents what outcome)
Determine what will be recorded from each trial
Perform many trials of sim
Calc the relative freq of successful trials to get a sim probability.
What is the sample space
Collection of all possible non-overlapping outcomes
Formula for prob of any event
Total pref’d outcomes/total outcomes
What are mutually exclusive events
Events that cannot occur at the same time
What is conditional prob
Prob that even B will occur given that event A has occured
What is the multiplication rule
P(A) * P(B|A) = P(AnB)
How to check if 2 events are independent
The conditional prob of A should be equal to the prob A
P(A|B) should equal to P(A)
otherwise depedent
What is a random variable
2 types
explain both
Numerical outcomes of a random behavior
Discrete - Can only take a countable number of variables
Continuous - Can take on an infinite number of values in an interval on a number line.
How to describe a prob dist
Shape
Center
Spread
How to find expected value using a prob dist
X1 * p1 + X2 * p2 … Xn * pn
