Uncertainties

Question 1

Which different types of uncertainty are there?

Answer 1

Measurement
Model input
Intrinsic
Behavioural

Question 2

Which variables are commonly represented as
random variables or distributions?

Answer 2

Route choice
Initial location
Walking speed
Pre-evacuation time
Space conflict resolution (collision avoidance)

Question 3

Which methods is there to determine the number of model runs needed?

Answer 3

Fixed number
Brute force
Qualitative analysis
Quantitative analysis of model outputs

Question 4

Name 3 calculation types

Answer 4

1) Blind calculations
Basic description of the scenario
Details left to user’s judgment
2) Specified calculations
Detailed description of inputs (geometry, occupants, etc.)
3) Open calculations
Complete information on the scenario
Actual evacuation data or benchmark model runs

Question 5

What should one consider during evacuation modelling?

Answer 5

Users should account for uncertainties in evacuation simulations when using them for engineering design.
Human behaviour is uncertain by nature and should be modelled as such.
You need to run more than one iteration of a scenario in order to obtain meaningful results.