Uncertainity

Question 1

Limitations

Answer 1

The Expected Value Challenge:

Challenge: The early focus on identifying the “right project” rather than accurately estimating the expected value poses a risk. The chosen “best project” may not reflect the true end cost due to evolving plans during the project.
(ii) The Detail Challenge:

Challenge: As projects progress, the original top-down uncertainty analysis encounters challenges. More details become available, allowing for additional elements and complexities, while the increasing project size introduces difficulties in maintaining a top-down approach.
(iii) The Human/Team Challenge:

Challenge: Interpretation of uncertainty varies among team members, influencing risk attitudes and behaviors. Group dynamics and heuristic pitfalls may compromise objectivity in uncertainty analyses, and participants may be tempted to add “buffers” or unrealistic factors to meet expectations.