TOPIC 9 - Delphi method Flashcards
hat is the Delphi method?
A structured group technique for eliciting and combining expert judgments into a better forecast than one person’s.
How does the Delphi method manage the exchange of information?
It manages the exchange of information between heterogeneous, anonymous experts over a number of rounds, providing feedback between rounds as participants develop their earlier responses.
When do rounds of the Delphi method occur, and until when do they continue?
Rounds occur until the responses show stability.
What is the outcome of the Delphi method?
Takes the consensus or average of the forecasts on the final round as the group forecast view.
hat is the basic idea behind the Delphi method?
To think about what may happen in the future, based on people’s understanding of the present, by accessing knowledgeable experts and collecting and averaging their answers.
Who can be considered an expert in the Delphi method?
An expert could be anyone who has knowledge relevant to the topic.
What are some biases associated with the Delphi method?
Choice of experts bias as it relies solely on the facilitator, and experts’ biases since they are experts in how things are and have been, being stakeholders in the present.
What are the pros of the Delphi method?
Aggregating expert opinions to form a more accurate forecast.
What are the cons of the Delphi method?
Potential for hindsight bias and facilitator choice bias.
