TOPIC 3 - Can we predict the future? How much and under what conditions? Flashcards
Can we predict the future and to what extent can we predict short, medium, long, and very long-term outcomes?
Short term: “kind of”
Medium term: “no?”
Long term: “no?”
Very long term: “kind of”
How does expertise affect the ability to predict the future?
“The problem is that expertise is always based on the present and the past.”
Compare the rate of change in technology to the rate of change in human and social values.
“Technology moves extremely fast, but social environments and values, etc. move very slowly.”
What is the concept of predicting the ‘Non-future’?
It’s about predicting “what will NOT happen”, such as the machine that came before the calculator probably won’t be back. Predicting what will NOT happen.
Why is the future never going to be predictable accurately?
“The future is never going to be predictable accurately because of all the complex systems involved in it.”
When trying to predict the future, what to things would we have to be able to predict?
“Direction of outcomes, where we’re going, what comes next, is hard to determine” and “Timing of outcomes is equally hard to determine.”
Explain the concept of ‘lumpy’ change.
“Change is mostly lumpy: We have long periods of latency followed by short, sharp tipping points.”
What incredibly useless as noted by Peter Drucker? In the context of strategic foresight
“There is nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency something that should not be done at all.”
What are common mistakes when thinking about what to do now that we know we can’t predict the future?
Thinking it’s “Useless to do anything”, hoping to “rely on agility”, and believing “My company will shape the future”.
What is ‘Idealized Design’ and its relevance to solving problems and predicting the future?
Idealized Design is “a way of thinking about change that is deceptively simple to state: In solving problems of any kind, the way to get the best outcome is to imagine what the ideal solution would be and then work backward to where you are today.”
What is the feasibility of shaping the external environment?
“Essentially it is not possible, unless under some very specific circumstances. Most people and organizations have very little to none shaping powers over the external environment and reality.”
