Topic 2 - Project Cost Estimating Flashcards
When do we do cost estimating?
Concept - estimate
Design - estimate
Bidding - estimate
Construction - estimate
Less effort/ low accuracy —-> more effort, more accuracy
Why do we do cost estimating?
Financing and budgeting for owner and contractor.
What is a conceptual estimate?
2 types?
- completed prior to design
- used by owner to determine feasibility of project and magnitude of scope(whether to proceed with project or not)
- low accuracy
- low effort
- Analogous estimating: “top-down” estimate based on previous projects: Cost per function, unit area, or unit volume methods
- Parametric estimating: statistical relationship between historical data and project variables/characteristics
What is a preliminary estimate?
- complated at +/- 40% of design stage
- used to determine if company should proceed with project or not
- can be used to evaluate alternate options
- based on unit costs of similar cost elements from previous projects
What is an engineers estimate? aka owners estimate
- COMPLETED AFTER DETAILED DESIGN IS FINISHED
- used to conduct a final feasibility check
- used to provide a reliable reference point for bids
- can be used to secure resources (financing_
- based on a detailed costing of each element of work in work breakdown structure (WBS)
What is a bid estimate/detailed estimate? -aka contractors estimate
- most accurate
- based on complete bid documents
- “bottom up” estimating: detailed, first principles, based on lowest elements in WBS; includes detailed assessment of risks and opportunities and desired profit margin/markup
Conceptual Estimate types?
- Analogous estimating: “top-down” estimate based on previous projects: Cost per function, unit area, or unit volume methods
- Parametric estimating: statistical relationship between historical data and project variables/characteristics
Bid estimate/detailed estimate type?
-“bottom up” estimating: detailed, first principles, based on lowest elements in WBS; includes detailed assessment of risks and opportunities and desired profit margin/markup
Classes of estimates
Class 1 to class 5
- class 5 has very little maturity level (% of project completed), so will be most unnacurate and low preparation effort
- class 1 has high maturity level (65%to100%), so has very high accuracy and high preparation effort
Estimate class for bid/tender?
Estimate for feasibility?
Estimate for budget budget authorization/control?
- class 4 or 5
- class 1 or 2
- class 3
Methodology for class 4/5 estimates?
Methodology with class 3
Methodology with class 1/2
4/5: detailed unit cost with forced detailed take-off
3: semi detailed unit costs
1: capacity factored
2: equipment factored
Competitive bidding/tendering: who is it conducted by?What is a tender? purpose of competitive bidding?
- conducted by client (owner) or its consultant
- a tender is a bid, a formal offer to do work based upon certain terms
- purpose is to provide competition and thereby reduce costs to owners
5 methods of bidding?
-open competitive
-prequalified
-invited
negotiated
-joint ventures - one time
Steps in competitive bidding?
1) owner issues request for bids (letter of invitation, advertisement, request for pre-qualification, …)
2) contractor views/obtains tender documents
3) contractor makes decision to bod or not to bid
4) Contractor prepares estimate and tender submission
5) contractor submits bid
6) owner opens bids and awards contract
- public bid opening and closed bid opening
Types of bid openings?
Public bid opening:
- public sector owners (government, schools, hospitals)
- basis for award: generally lowest price of prequalified
Closed bid opening:
- private sector (non govt owners)
- basis for award: not necessarily lowest price (experience, capability, realistic bid, quality of subcontractors and suppliers)
Additional elements of bid:
1) alternate price
2) separate price
3) breakout price
1) price for scaled up version of an item that is also priced in regular bid
2) price for a separate part of project that may or may not go ahead, depending on owners budget
3) indicate price for a specified portion of the work - used for accounting purposes to allocate funding
Components of a detailed cost estimate
- Direct costs
- labour, equipment, materials, subcontracts - Indirect costs (overheads, preliminaries)
- management, engineering, supervision - Risk and opportunity allowance
- Margin / Markup
- includes corporate overheads and profit
steps in bidding process
- identify bid opportunity
- make decision to bid
- study plans and specifications
- break project into work packages (WBS)
- do quantity takeoff
- of each work package, record quantity and unit of measure - determine construction methods
- estimate labour and equipment productivity
- obtain and evaluate quotations from subcontractors and suppliers
- price items of work in WBS
- prepare project schedule
- price indirect (overhead) costs
- consider alternatives
- perform risk/opportunity analysis
- add corporate overhead and profit margin
- spread costs
- calculate unit prices
- submit bid
How do we measure productivity?
Productivity = Output (units of products) / Input (resources)
Labour productivity = Output (installed quantity) / person-hours
(ex: output/input = 2m^3/person-hour)
Productivity refers to how efficiently and effectively a company can turn its input (labour and capital) into products and services
Definition or production? How to change production rate?
=units of output per unit time (e.g 100m^3/hour for placing concrete)
-by changing number of person-hours available in one hour by changing crew size (increasing # of people) or by improving productivity
Production = Productivity (m^3/person-hour) * (person-hours/hour)
Productivity vs Production
production indicates how much work is being done in a given time interval; how fast work is progressing; indicates if schedule objectives will be met; not an indication of how much money is being spent
-productivity is a measure of efficiency of labour and/or equipment crew; indicates if cost objectives will be met
Capital Recovery Equation
Sinking Funds Equation
A = P[i(1+i)^n / (1+i)^n - 1]
- A=gives the equivalent annual value (A) of the purchase price (P) assuming annual interest rate (i) during the useful life of (n)
- i=MARR (minimum attractive rate of return) = interest for borrowing money + risk + average cost for taxes, insurance, storage
A = F[i / (1+i)^n -1]
- F=future salvage value
- i=annual interest rate
- n=useful life, in years
Estimating vs Bidding/Tendering
Estimating: Assessing direct costs and indirect costs
Bidding/tendering: assessing risk and opportunity allowance and margin
What is risk and opportunity assessment
identifying and assessing the impact on costs of a potential project risks and opportunities