Thinking, Fast and slow Flashcards
People commit this when they judge a conjunction of two events to be more probable than one of the events in a direct comparison.
TFS p158
A. Conjunction bias
B. Cascading fallacy
C. Conjunction Fallacy
D. Cascading bias
C. Conjunction Fallacy
A good story that meets the criteria for associative coherence
A. Relevant
B. Plausible
C. Relatable
D. Disassociative
B. Plausible
Within subject experiment, where logic rules.
TFS p164
A. Single-evaluation
B. Joint-Evaluation
C. Conjunction fallacy
D. Intuitive fallacy
B. Joint-Evaluation
Between subject experiment, where intuition governs judgements.
TFS p164
A. Single-evaluation
B. Joint-evaluation
C. Logical fallacy
D. Judgement fallacy
A. Single evaluation
Facts about a population to which a case belongs, but they are not relevant to the individual case. They are generally underweighted, and sometimes neglected altogether, when specific information about the case in hand is available.
TFS p168
A. Statistical Base Rates
B. Statistical inferences
C. Casual Base Rates
D. Cognitive inferences
A. Statistical Base Rates
Change your view of how the individual case came to be and are easily combined with other case–specific information.
TFS p168
A. Formal Base Rates
B. Casual Base Rates
C. Biased Base Rates
D. Statistical Base Rates
B. Casual Base Rates
An important principle of skill training: Rewards for improved performance work ________ than punishment of mistakes.
TFS p175
A. worse
B. better
C. differently
D. more coercive
B. better
Inconsistency is destructive of any __________ .
A. Precise validity
B. Predictive validity
C. Certainty validity
D. none of the above
B. Predictive validity
The treatment for the planning fallacy.
A. Reference class forecasting
B. Zero sum forecasting
C. Cognitive forecasting
D. none of the above
A. Reference class forecasting
Phrase that describes the background of risk taking.
A. Bold forecasts and timid decisions
B. Unlikely forecasts and bold decisions
C. Timid forecasts and bold decisions
D. None of the above
A. Bold forecasts and timid decisions
Once you have accepted a theory and used it as a tool in your thinking, it is extraordinarily difficult to notice its flaws.
TFS
A. Blinded by bias
B. Theory-Induced blindness
C. Bias-Induced blindness
D. Intuitive tunnel vision
B. Theory-Induced blindness
The method for assigning weights to the outcomes.
A. relevance theory
B. Expectation principle
C. Importance bias
D. Subjective bias
B. Expectation principle
Causes highly unlikely outcomes to be weighted disproportionately more than they ‘deserve’.
A. Availability effect
B. Possibility effect
C. Cognitive effect
D. Recency effect
B. Possibility effect
Outcomes that are almost certain are given less weight than their probability justifies.
A. Certainty effect
B. Uncertainty effect
C. Casual effect
D. Formal effect
A. Certainty effect
Decision weights and probabilities are the same.
A. Forecast theory
B. Utility theory
C. Conjunction theory
D. Moral reasoning theory
B. Utility Theory
Variations of probability have less effect on decision weights.
A. Utility theory
B. Prospect theory
C. Cognitive theory
D. none of the above
B. Prospect Theory
Sure thing over a gamble.
A. Risk seeking
B. Risk averse
C. Overconfident
D. Lazy
B. Risk averse
Reject the sure thing and accept the gamble
Risk Seeking
We called the percentage of time that an individual spends in an unpleasant state the _______.
A. U-index
B. mood index
C. X-index
D. emotional index
A. U-index
A ___________ is one way to answer life-satisfaction questions.
A. cognitive ease
B. mood heuristic
C. emotion
D. attitudes
B. Mood heuristic
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.
A. focusing illusion
B. valence illusion
C. availability heuristic
D. Relevance
A. Focusing illusion
A _____ loosens the control of System 2 over performance.
A. bad mood
B. happy mood
C. indifferent mood
D. none of the above
B. happy mood
Describes bad choices that arise from errors of affective forecasting.
A. Misdirected
B. Miswanting
C. Undesirable
D. Unethical
B. Miswanting
Product of the remembering self.
A. joy
B. regret
C. hindsight
D. overconfidence
B. Regret
Rationality is _______.
A. cognitive coherence
B. logical coherence
C. logical bias
D. cognitive ease
B. Logical coherence
The concept of _____ is certainly the most significant contribution to behavioral economics.
A. loss aversion
B. prospect theory
C. endowment effect
D. competition neglect
A. Loss aversion
In general, a strategy of deliberately _____ may be a good defense against anchoring effects, because it negates the biased recruitment of thoughts that produces these effects.
A. “thinking through details”
B. “thinking the opposite”
C. “concentrating on common sense”
D. “focusing on facts”
B. Thinking the opposite
TFS
In today’s world ____, are the most significant practitioners of the art of inducing availability cascades.
A. Terrorists
B. Politicians
C. Citizens
D. Journalists
A. Terrorists
Regarding stereotypes, “it is useful to remember, however, that neglecting valid stereotypes, inevitably results in ____________ judgments.”
A. more precise
B. suboptimal
C. optimal
D. incorrect
B. Suboptimal
TFS (pg 204)
Because adherence to standard operating procedures is difficult to second-guess, decision-makers, who expect to have their decision scrutinized with hindsight are driven to _____, and an extreme reluctance to take risk.
A. Perfection paralysis
B. Bureaucratic solutions
C. Becoming overly cautious
D. Avoid involvement
B. Bureaucratic solutions
Regarding what supports the illusions of skills and validity
________ can be more stubborn than ________.
TFS p216
A. Cognitive illusions; Visual illusions
B. Visual illusions; Cognitive illusions
C. N/a
D. N/a
A. Cognitive Illusions; visual illusions
TFS page 41
It is now a well-established proposition that both self-control and cognitive efforts are forms of _____.
A. psychological work
B. mental work
C. cognitive work
D. enhanced work
B. Mental work
TFS page 53
Regarding the marvels of priming, this remarkable priming phenomenon, the influencing of an action by the idea, is known as the ____.
A. priming effect
B. cognitive effect
C. ideomotor effect
D. coherence effect
C. Ideomotor effect
You do not automatically count the number of syllables of every word you read, but you can do it if you so choose. However, the control over intended computations is far from precise: we often compute much more than we want or need. I call this excess computation the _____.
A. Overload heuristic
B. Mental shotgun
C. System 1 crutch
D. Mental burst
B. Mental Shotgun
What is more easily acquired:
A. Learned hope
B. Learned fears
C. Depends on circumstance
D. Both are equal
B. Learned fears
Amos and I coined the term ___ to describe plans and forecast that, 1) are unrealistically close to best case scenarios, and 2) could be improved by consulting this statistics of similar cases
A. associative machine
B. outside view
C. forecasting error
D. planning fallacy
D. planning fallacy
For most people, the fear of losing $100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $150. We concluded from many such observers “losses loom larger than gains“ and that people are ___.
A. Loss averse
B. Primed to win
C. More likely to regress to the mean
D. Negative risk
A. Loss averse
The expectation of intelligent gossip is a powerful motive for serious __________, more powerful than new year resolutions to improve one’s decision-making at work and at home.
TFS p 3
A. Self-reflection
B. Self-criticism
C. Cognitive reflection
D. cognitive criticism
B. Self-criticism
Systematic errors are known as ________, and they recur predictively in particular circumstances.
TFS p4
A. Morays
B. Stereotypes
C. Biases
D. Fallacies
C. Biases
The reliance on the ease of memory search is referred to as which heuristic?
TFS 7
A. Recency
B. Resemblance
C. Availability
D. Recall
C. Availability
________ heuristic, or judgments and decisions are guided directly by feelings of liking and disliking, with little deliberation of or reasoning.
TFS p12
A. Effect
B. Affect
C. Emotional
D. Positive
B. Affect
The essence of ___________ heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
TFS p12
A. Abstract
B. Informative
C. Intuitive
D. Substitution
C. Intuitive
__________ memory, the core of system one, continually constructs a coherent interpretation of what is going on in our world at any instant.
TFS p13
A. Latent
B. Patent
C. Associative
D. Collective
C. Associative
The operations of ___________ are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice, and concentration.
TFS p21
A. mental work
B. System 1
C. cognitive ease
D. System 2
D. System 2
The highly diverse operations of ______________ have one feature in common: they require ___________ and are disrupted when ______ is away.
TFS p22
A. mental work, effort
B. System 2, attention
C. System 1, intuition
D. cognitive ease, attention
B. System 2, attention
There are illusions of thought, which we call ________ illusions.
TFS p27
A. Visual
B. Mental
C. Illusory
D. Cognitive
D. Cognitive
A crucial capability of System 2 is the adoption of “______________”. It can program memory to obey an instruction that overrides habitual responses.
TFS p36
A. special details
B. cognitive tasks
C. task sets
D. special cognitive sets
C. task sets
The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to ________?
TFS p37
A. memorize
B. think fast
C. multi-task
D. switching tasks
B. think fast
People who experience _________, describe it as “a state of effortless concentration so deep that they lose their sense of time, of themselves, of their problems”, and their description of the joy of that state are so compelling that Csikszentmihaly has called it a(n) “______________”.
TFS p40
A. flow, ease of movement
B. move, gliding
C. flow, existentialism
D. flow, optimal experience
D. flow, optimal experience
________ neatly separates the two forms of effort: concentration on the task and the deliberate control of attention.
TFS p41
A. Cognitive ease
B. Flow
C. Heuristic
D. Memorizing
B. Flow
People who are ______________ are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
TFS p41
A. not in a state of flow
B. easily distracted
C. inattentive
D. cognitively busy
D. cognitively busy
If you have had to force yourself to do something, you were less willing or less able to exert self-control when the next challenge comes around. This phenomenon has been named ______________.
TFS p42
A. cognitive overload
B. ego depletion
C. ego exertion
D. cognitive depletion
B. ego depletion
Jumping to conclusions on the basis of limited evidence is so important to an understanding of _____.
A. Quick thinking
B. Intuitive thinking
C. Spontaneous thinking
D. Logical thinking
TFS p086
B. Intuitive thinking
WYSIATI, facilitates the achievement of ____ and of the cognitive ease that causes us to accept a statement as true.
A. Coherence
B. Compatabilty
C. Comprehension
D. Intuition
TFS p087
A. Coherence
Regression effects are ubiquitous, and so are misguided casual stories to explain them. A well-known example is the “_____”.
A. Celebrity jinx
B. Bogie vs. Birdie
C. Sports Illustrated jinx
D. ESPN dilemma
TFS p0178
C. Sports Illustrated jinx
A self-reinforcing pattern of cognitive, emotional, and physical responses that is both diverse and integrated—it has been called __________.
TFS p51
A. associative activation
B. coherent association
C. associatively coherent
D. associative understanding
C. associatively coherent
In the 1980s, psychologist discovered that exposure to a word causes immediate and measurable changes in the ease with which many related words can be evoked. This is known as __________.
TFS p52
A. recency effect
B. associative effect
C. priming effect
D. associative priming
C. priming effect
The influencing of an action by the idea is known as _________.
TFS p53
A. Florida effect
B. priming effect
C. associative effect
D. ideomotor effect
D. ideomotor effect
_____________ priming effects tend to produce a coherent reaction: if you were prime to think of old age, you would tend to act old, and acting old, would reinforce the thought of old age.
TFS p54
A. Reversive
B. Reciprocal
C. Mutual
D. Requited
B. Reciprocal
We defined the ___ as the process of judging frequency by “the ease with which instances come to mind.“
A. Quick heuristic
B. WYSIATI heuristic
C. Reference heuristic
D. Availability heuristic
TFS p0129
D. Availability heuristic
When you are in a state of _______, you are probably in a good mood, like what you see, believe what you hear, trust your intuition, and feel that the current situation is comfortably familiar.
TFS p60
A. cognitive strain
B. mentally adaptable
C. cognitive ease
D. cognitively comfortable
C. cognitive ease
When you feel ____________, you are more likely to be vigilant and suspicious, invest more effort in what you are doing, feel less comfortable, and make fewer errors, but you also are less intuitive and less creative than usual.
TFS p60
A. cognitive ease
B. mental strain
C. mental overload
D. cognitive strain
D. cognitive strain
Zajonc called the link between the repetition of an arbitrary stimulus and the mild affection that people eventually have for it the _________.
TFS p66
A. recency effect
B. mild exposure effect
C. relativity effect
D. mere exposure effect
D. mere exposure effect
Jumping to conclusions is _______ when the situation is unfamiliar, the stakes are high, and there is no time to collect more information.
TFS p79
A. familiar
B. acceptable
C. risky
D. unforgiving
C. risky
The operations of associative memory contribute to a general _____________.
TFS p81
A. unbelieving effect
B. confirmation bias
C. gullibility bias
D. believing effect
B. confirmation bias
The tendency to like (or dislike) everything about a person – including things you have not observed – is known as the _______.
TFS p82
A. likability effect
B. positive affirmation bias
C. halo effect
D. halo bias
C. halo effect
The magic of error reduction works well, only when the observations are ___________ and their errors uncorrelated.
TFS 84
A. interdependent
B. Independent
C. influenced
D. overestimated
B. independent
An essential design feature of the associative machine is that it represents only ___________ ideas.
TFS 85
A. activated
B. deactivated
C. patent
D. latent
A. activated
It is the _______________ of the information that matters for a good story, not it’s completeness.
TFS p87
A. coherence
B. consistency
C. plausibility
D. impressionable
B. consistency
WYSIATI influences biases in judgments and choice. The following are examples, except:
TFS 87-88
A. Overconfidence
B. Cognitive ease
C. Base-Rate Neglect
D. Framing effects
B. Cognitive ease
Good mood and cognitive ease are the human equivalence of assessments of ___________ and __________.
TFS p90
A. comfort, access
B. safety, familiarity
C. cognition, reprieve
D. safety, accessibility
B. safety, familiarity
The target question is the assessment you intend to produce. The heuristic question is the simpler question that you answer instead. This describes the intuitive opinion known as ____________.
TFS p97
A. availability
B. substitution
C. cognitive ease
D. none of the above
B. substitution
The technical definition of _________ is a simple procedure that helps find adequate, though often imperfect, answers to difficult questions.
TFS 98
A. heuristic
B. substitution
C. cognition
D. holistic
A. heuristic
___________ occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity.
TFS p119
A. Causality effect
B. Associative effect
C. Anchoring effect
D. Relevancy effect
C. Anchoring effect
The process of judging frequency by “the ease with which instances come to mind” defines which heuristic?
TFS p129
A. Association
B. Affect
C. Availability
D. Adjustment
C. Availability
People make judgments and decisions by consulting their emotions describes which heuristic?
TFS p139
A. emotional heuristic
B. availability heuristic
C. affect heuristic
D. judgement heuristic
C. affect heuristic
The mechanism through which biases flow into policy is known as ______________________.
TFS p142
A. availability heuristic
B. availability cascade
C. cognitive cascade
D. availability bias
B. availability cascade
Using _______________ information is the obvious move when no other information is provided.
TFS p147
A. effective
B. unbiased
C. base-rate
D. Judgment heuristic
C. base-rate
Focusing exclusively on the similarity of the description to the stereotypes, ignoring both the base rates and the doubts about the veracity of the description is known as _____________.
TFS p149
A. representativeness
B. coincidence
C. competitiveness
D. associativenes
A. representativeness
One sin of representativeness is an ______________________ to predict the occurrence of unlikely (low base-rate) events.
TFS p151
A. underestimate
B. excessive willingness
C. uncontrollability
D. associativeness
B. excessive willingness
The second sin of representativeness is insensitivity to the _________.
TFS 153
A. quality of evidence
B. facts
C. biases
D. completeness of information
A. quality of evidence
When people fail to apply a logical rule, that is obviously relevant, describes, in general, which term?
TFS 158
A. evidence
B. predictable
C. fallacy
D. conjunction
C. fallacy
Regarding the engine of capitalism, what do you call entrepreneurial firms that fail but signal New markets to more qualified competitors “_____“… Good for the economy, but bad for their investors.
A. optimistic martyrs
B. entrepreneurial martyrs
C. entrepreneurial scapegoats
D. business falcons
TFS p261
A. optimistic martyrs
The ______________ between two measures, which varies between zero and one, is a measure of the relative weight of the factors they share.
TFS p181
A. Correlation bias
B. Coefficient bias
C. Correlation Coefficient
D. Regression coefficient
C. Correlation Coefficient
Whenever the correlation between two scores is imperfect, there will be ________________ .
TFS p181
A. Correlation bias
B. Correlation of the mean
C. Regression bias
D. Regression to the mean
D. Regression to the mean
Intuitive predictions need to be corrected because they are not ______________ and therefore are biased.
TFS p190
A. valid
B. regressive
C. accurate
D. predictive
B. regressive
A characteristic of unbiased predictions is that they permit the prediction of ________________ events only when the information is very good.
TFS p192
A. limited or doubtful
B. predictable
C. rare or extreme
D. unpredictable
C. rare or extreme
A preference for _______________ predictions is justified if all errors of prediction are treated alike, regardless of their direction.
TFS p192
A. accurate
B. rational
C. unbiased
D. regressed
C. unbiased
_________ outcomes are much more likely to be observed in small samples.
TFS 194
A. Regressed
B. Extreme
C. Overweighted
D. Underweighted
B. Extreme
(law of small numbers)
Extreme predictions and a willingness to predict rare events from week evidence are both manifestations of _____________.
TFS p194
A. System 2
B. unbiased predictions
C. System 1
D. cognitive intuition
C. System 1
___________________ describes how flawed stories of the past shape, our views of the world and our expectations for the future.
TFS 199
A. Narrative fallacy
B. Conjunction fallacy
C. Cognitive fallacy
D. Both A & C
A. Narrative fallacy
The ___________ helps keep explanatory narratives simple, and coherent by exaggerating, the consistency of evaluations.
TFS p199
A. Regression to the mean
B. Associative coherence
C. Halo Effect
D. Narrative Fallacy
C. Halo Effect
“I-knew-it-all-along” effect, is also known as the ________________.
TFS p202
A. forecasting bias
B. futurist bias
C. hindsight bias
D. predictive bias
C. hindsight bias
(also referred to as Outcome Bias)
Confidence is a ___________, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it.
TFS p212
A. truth
B. consequence
C. cognitive illusion
D. feeling
D. feeling
True or False:
Cognitive illusions can’t be more stubborn than visual illusions.
TFS p216
False
*CI’s can be more than VI’s
All of the following are cognitive illusions, except:
TFS 211-217
A. Illusion of Validity
B. Illusion of Skill
C. Illusion of Ambiguousness
D. Illusion of truth
C. Illusion of Ambiguousness
** Illusion of Pundits + others
(index pg 487 - cognitive illusions)
Feeling that one’s soul is stained, appears to trigger a desire to cleanse one’s body, an impulse that has been dubbed the ___.
A. Tom W predicament
B. Lady Macbeth effect
C. Muller-Lyer effect
D. Florida effect
TFS p056
B. Lady Macbeth effect
Memory function is an attribute to ___.
A. System 1
B. System 2
C. Memory bank function
D. Memory storage preference
TFS p046
A. System 1
We found that people, when engaged in a “mental sprint”, may become ___.
A. Hyperfocused
B. Hyperengaged
C. Effectively blind
D. Effectively superceded
TFS p034
C. Effectively blind
Which one of the following terms borrows from psychology?
A. Classic economics
B. Behavioral economics
C. Thinking economics
D. Fundamental economics
TFS p014
B. Behavioral economics
A capacity for ___ is an essential aspect of our mental life, and ___ itself is the most sensitive indication of how we understand our world and what we expect from it.
A. Surprise
B. Intellect
C. Common sense
D. Awareness
TFS p071
A. Surprise
The illusion that we understand the past fosters ____________ in our ability to predict the future.
TFS p218
A. cognitive ease
B. overconfidence
C. presumption
D. modesty
B. overconfidence
__ occurs when people consider a particular value for an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity.
A. Base-rate effect
B. Anchoring effect
C. Estimation effect
D. Counting effect
TFS p119
B. Anchoring effect
I sometimes refer to System 1 as an agent with certain traits and preferences, and sometimes as an associative machine that represents reality by a complex pattern of ___.
A. Memories
B. Associations
C. Links
D. Ties
TFS
C. Links
In terms of its consequences for decisions, the ___ may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases.
A. Optimistic bias
B. Hindsight bias
C. Forecasting bias
D. Scanning bias
TFS p255
A. Optimistic Bias
A process of intuitive decision making that involves System 1 and System 2. In the first phase, a tentative plan comes to mind by an automatic function of associated memory, System 1. The next phase is a deliberate process in which the plan is mentally stimulated to check if it will work, System 2.
TFS p237
A. Expert Intuition
B. Skilled Intuition
C. Recognition-primed decision
D. Expert-primed decision
C. Recognition-primed decision (RPD)
- ex firefighters/chess masters.
Robin Hogarth described ________ environments, in which professionals are likely to learn the wrong lessons from experience.
TFS p240
A. hostile
b. rich
C. coercive
D. wicked
D. wicked
Plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to Best case scenarios, and could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases, describes this optimistic bias?
TFS 250
A. Optimism fallacy
B. Forecasting fallacy
C. Planning fallacy
D. Outside view fallacy
C. Planning fallacy
Using such distributional information from other ventures, similar to that being forecasted is called taking “_______________”, and is the cure to the planning fallacy.
TFS p251
A. Outside view
B. Inside view
C. Statistical Base Rates
D. Casual Base Rates
A. Outside view
The _________ for the planning fallacy has now acquired a technical name, reference class forecasting.
TFS p251
A. scalability
B. acceptability
C. treatment
D. reversing
C. treatment
The _________ has two main advantages: it overcomes the group think that affects many teams once a decision appears to have been made, and it unleashes the imagination of knowledgeable individuals in a much-needed direction.
TFS p264-5
A. critical evaluation
B. decision apathy
C. premortem
D. postmortem
C. premortem
A decision-maker with diminishing marginal utility for wealth will be _______________.
TFS 274
A. Risk Seeking
B. Risk Averse
C. Neutral
D. None of the above
B. Risk Averse
_________________: once you have accepted a theory and used it as a tool in your thinking, it is extraordinarily difficult to notice its flaws.
TFS p277
A. Theory-induced blindness
B. Theory regression bias
C. Broken theory bias
D. None of the above
A. Theory-induced blindness
Utility theory and prospect theory both fail to account for ________.
TFS p287
A. truths
B. emotions
C. regret
D. joy
C. regret
The response to losses is stronger than the response to corresponding gains.
TFS 282
A. Risk aversion
B. Loss aversion
C. Risk seeking
D. None of the above
B. Loss aversion
In ________ , the experience of an outcome depends on an option you could have adopted, but did not.
TFS p288
A. Loss-aversion
B. Risk-seeking
C. joy
D. regret
D. regret
Owning the good appeared to increase its value.
TFS p293
A. The endowment Effect
B. Endowment theory
C. Conventional indifference
D. None of the above
A. The endowment effect
Being poor, in prospect theory, is living below one’s _____________.
TFS p298
A. expectations
B. desires
C. status
D. reference point
D. reference point
The negative trumps the positive in many ways, and ____________ is one of many manifestations of a broad negative dominance.
TFS 302
A. Risk Seeking
B. Risk aversion
C. Loss aversion
D. Negative bias
C. Loss aversion
Negotiations over a shrinking pie are especially difficult, because they require an allocation of ______________.
TFS p304
A. gains
B. losses
C. threats
D. achievements
B. losses
A concession that is presented as painful calls for an equally painful (and perhaps equally an authentic) concession from the other side.
TFS p305
A. biased trading
B. bias of reciprocity
C. norm of reciprocity
D. dominance bias
C. norm of reciprocity
The possibility effect, which causes highly unlikely outcomes to be weighted, disproportionally more than they “___________”.
TFS p311
A. are worth
B. valued
C. deserve
D. expect
C. deserve
________ and vividness influence, fluency, availability, and judgments of probability— and thus account for our excessive response to the few rare events that we do not ignore.
TFS p323
A. Recency
B. Coherence
C. Emotion
D. Susceptibility
C. Emotion
Overestimation and overweighting, are distinct phenomena, the same psychological mechanisms are involved in both: which of the following is not one of those mechanisms?
TFS p324
A. confirmation bias
B. focused attention
C. cognitive ease
D. emotional response
D. emotional response
We can also form and immediate impression of the number of objects in an array — precisely if there are ___ objects, crudely if there are more.
A. Four or fewer
B. Five or fewer
C. Six or fewer
D. Ten or fewer
TFS p093
A. Four or fewer
The size of a category, the number of instances it contains, tends to be ignored in the judgments of what I will call:
A. Product-like variables
B. Sum-like variables
C. Total variables
D. Differing variables
TFS p093
B. Sum-like variables
Whenever your eyes are open, your brain computes a ___ representation of what is in your _____, complete with the shape of objects, their position in space, and their identity.
A. 2-D; mental environment
B. 2-D; System 1
C. 3-D; field of vision
D. 3-D; conceptual space
TFS p095
C. 3-D; field of vision
Regarding the mental shotgun, it is impossible to aim a single point with a shotgun because it shoots pellets that scatter, and it seems almost equally difficult for ___ not to do more than ___ charges it to do:
A. System 1; System 2
B. System 2; System 1
C. System 1; cognitive control
D. System 2; rapid fire effect
TFS p095
A. System 1; System 2
Overweighting is never observed in _______________________, and underweight is common.
TFS p331
A. Choices from description
B. Choice from experience
C. Choices from consequences
D. None of the above
B. Choice from experience
The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where ___ are involved.
A. Significant issues
B. Emotions
C. Sensitive items
D. Attitudes
TFS p103
B. Emotions
Regarding the law of small numbers, the author of a study pointed out that psychologists commonly chose samples so small that they expose themselves to a ___ risk of failing to confirm their true hypothesis.
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%
TFS p112
C. 50%
All of the following contribute to overweighting, except:
TFS p333
A. obsessive concerns (bus bombings)
B. vivid images (the rose)
C. concrete representations (1 of 1,000)
D. confirmatory bias (99% to win $1,000)
D. confirmatory bias
4th = Explicit reminders
Regarding sample size, what is the meaning of the statement that “people are _____ to sample size“.
A. Not adequately sensitive
B. Adequately sensitive
C. Insensitive
D. Indifferent
TFS p114
A. Not adequately sensitive
Narrow framing: a sequence of two simple decisions, considered separately.
Broad framing: a single comprehensive decision, with four options
Humans are by nature _______ framers.
A. Narrow
B. Broad
TFS p336
A. Narrow
The “hot hand” is a massive and widespread ___.
A. Confirmatory bias
B. Cognitive bias
C. Confirmatory illusion
D. Cognitive illusion
TFS p117
D. Cognitive illusion
Broad framing, blunted the ________________ to losses and increase the willingness to take risks.
TFS p339
A. Emotional reaction
B. Emotional bias
C. Loss aversion
D. Risk seeking
A. Emotional reaction
System 1 uses what process for anchoring?
A. Priming effect
B. Priming heuristic
C. Process of adjustment
D. General Bias
TFS p120
A. Priming effect
A risk policy is a ________ frame.
TFS p340
A. Narrow
B. Broad
B. Broad
The outside view and the risk policy are remedies against two distinct biases that affect many decisions: the exaggerated optimism of the ____________ and the exaggerated caution induced by ____________.
TFS p340
A. narrow framing; risk seeking
B. planning fallacy; loss aversion
C. loss aversion; availability bias
D. planning fallacy; truth bias
B. planning fallacy; loss aversion
The __________ keeps people for too long and poor jobs, unhappy, marriages, and unpromising research projects.
TFS p346
A. failure bias
B. Exaggerated optimism fallacy
C. sunk cost fallacy
D. exaggerated optimism bias
C. Sunk cost fallacy
_________ is one of the counterfactual emotions that are triggered by the availability of alternatives to reality.
TFS p346
A. Remorse
B. Hindsight
C. Regret
D. All of the above
C. Regret
Confusing experience with the memory of it is a compelling cognitive _________.
TFS p381
A. bias
B. illusion
C. effect
D. experience
B. illusion
A __________ heuristic is one way to answer life–satisfaction questions.
TFS p399
A. emotion
B. happiness
C. thought
D. mood
D. mood
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it: describes which illusion?
TFS p402
A. cognitive
B. imagining
C. focusing
D. forecasting
C. focusing
Regarding entrepreneurial delusions, the stock market commonly responds by downgrading the value of the acquiring firm, because experience has shown that efforts to integrate large firms fail more often than they succeed. The misguided acquisitions have been explained by ____________.
A) Hubris Effect
B) Hubris Hypothesis
C) Competition Neglect
D) Illusion of Control
TFS p258
A) Hubris Hypothesis
Thoughts of any aspect of life are more likely to be salient if a contrasting ______________ is highly available.
TFS p404
A. opinion
B. alternative
C. outcome
D. idea
B. alternative
Daniel Gilbert and Timothy Wilson introduced the word _________________ to describe bad choices that arise from errors of effective forecasting.
TFS p406
A. miswanting
B. WYSIATI
C. focalism
D. misneeding
A. miswanting
The remembering self is a construction of _____________.
TFS p409
A. System 1
B. cognitive ease
C. System 2
D. availability heuristic
C. System 2
Duration neglect and the peak-end rule originate in __________.
TFS p409
A. System 1
B. System 2
A. System 1
Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that the judgment is correct. Confidence is a ___, which reflects coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it.
A. Marker
B. Thought
C. Feeling
D. Emotion
TFS p212
C. Feeling
Intuitive predictions need to be corrected because they are not regressive and therefore are ___.
A. Incorrect
B. Inplausible
C. Biased
D. Flawed
TFS p0190
C. Biased
Emotional learning may be quick, but what we consider as “expertise“ usually takes a long time to develop. The acquisition of expertise is a complex task, such as high-level chess, professional basketball, or firefighting is intricate and slow because expertise in a domain is not a single skill but rather a collection of ___.
A) miniskills
B) thoughts
C) programs
D) illusions
TFS p238
A) miniskills
The consequence of ____ is excess entry: more competitors enter the market than the market can profitably sustain, so their average outcome is a loss.
A. Endowment effect
B. Cognitive bias
C. Prospect Theory
D. Competition Neglect
TFS p261
D. Competition Neglect
An example in the book given was the “Florida effect”, and this remarkable priming phenomenon… The influencing of an action by the idea… Is known as the ___.
A. Follow effect
B. Ideomotor effect
C. Repeat motion effect
D. Matching intensity effect
TFS p053
B. Ideomotor effect
The psychologist Paul Slovick has proposed an affect heuristic in which people let their ____, determine their beliefs about the world.
A. Feelings and emotions
B. Preferences and non-preferences
C. Guilt and pain
D. Likes and dislikes
TFS p103
D. Likes and Dislikes
The dynamics of memory help explain the recurrent cycles of ____ that are familiar to students of large scale emergencies.
A. Disaster, concern, growing complacency
B. Forgetfulness, disaster, response
C. Disaster, emotion, separation
D. Forgetfulness, disaster, avoidance
TFS p137
A. Disaster, concern, growing complacency
The author describes, “we were not the first to notice that people become risk ____ when all their options are bad, but theory induced blindness had prevailed.”
A. Adverse
B. Prone
C. Seeking
D. Crazy
TFS p280
C. Seeking
WYSIATI facilitates the achievement of ____, and of the cognitive ease that causes us to accept the statement is true.
A. Comprehension
B. Acceptance
C. Coherence
D. Denial
TFS p087
C. Coherence
It is useful to remember, however, that neglecting valid stereotypes, inevitably results in ____ judgments.
A. Suboptimal
B. Optimal
C. Skewed
D. Perfect
TFS p169
A. Suboptimal
___ are facts about a population to which a case belongs, but they are not relevant to the individual case. ____ change your view of how the individual case came to be.
A. Average base rates; Specific base rates
B. Specific base rates; Average base rates
C. Causal base rates; Statistical base rates
D. Statistical base rates; Causal base rates
TFS p168
D. Statistical base rates; Causal base rates
Which of the following is not one of the three major systems of normative ethics?
A. Virtue ethics
B. Moral ethics
C. Deontological ethics
D. Teleological ethics
B. Moral ethics
The conclusion is that the ease with which instances come to mind is a ____ heuristic, which is replaced by a focus on content when ___ is more engaged.
TFS p135
A. System 1; System 2
B. System 2; System 1
C. System 1; System 1
D. System 2; System 2
A. System 1; System 2
Slavic eventually developed the notion of an ___ heuristic, in which people make judgments and decisions by consulting their emotions.
TFS p139
A. Availability
B. Affect
C. Cognitive
D. Experience
B. Affect
Statistical algorithms greatly outdo humans in ___ environments for two reasons: they are more likely than human judges to detect weekly valid cues and much more likely to maintain a modest level of accuracy by using cues consistently.
TFS p241
A. Busy
B. Difficult
C. Costly
D. Noisy
D. Noisy
Regarding the environment of skill, the clinicians predicament was less extreme than ___ environment of long-term political forecasting, but they operated in ___ situations that did not allow high accuracy.
TFS p240
A. Low Validity; Zero validity
B. Zero validity; Low validity
C. High validity; Low validity
D. Low validity; High validity
B. Zero validity; Low validity
They call themselves students of Naturalistic Decision Making, or NDM, and mostly work in organizations where they often study how experts work, the NDMer adamantly reject the focus on biases in the ___ and biases ____.
TFS p234
A. Heuristics; approach
B. Heuristics; sector
C. Heuristics; feeling
D. Heuristics; variables
A. Heuristics; approach
Regarding emotional framing, we should not be surprised: ___ evokes stronger negative feelings than ____. Choices are not-reality bound because system 1 is not reality bound.
TFS 364
A. Costs; losses
B. Losses; costs
C. Neither
D. Both
B. Losses; costs
One of the benefits of an optimistic temperament is that it encourages ____ in the face of obstacles.
TFS p257
A. Critical thinking
B. Negativity
C. Persistence
D. Free will
C. Persistence
Regarding competition neglect, both in explaining the past and in predicting the future, we focus on the causal role of skill and neglect the role of luck. We are therefore prone to a/an ___.
TFS p259
A. Illusion of control
B. Illusion of competition
C. Illusion of luck
D. Illusion of faith
A. Illusion of control
The greatest responsibility for avoiding the planning fallacy lies with the ___ who approved the plan. If they do not recognize the need for an ___ view, they commit a planning fallacy.
TFS p251
A. decision makers; outside
B. people involved; outside
C. decision makers; inside
D. decision makers; inside
A. decision makers; outside
Bent Flyvbjerg said, The prevalent tendency to underweight or ignore ___ is perhaps the major source of error in forecasting.
TFS p251
A. scientific information
B. statistical information
C. distributional information
D. any information
C. distributional information
This may be considered the single most important piece of advice regarding how to increase accuracy and forecasting through improve methods. Using such distributional information from the other ventures, similar to that being forecasted is called taking an outside view is the CURE to the:
TFS p251
A. narrative fallacy
B. planning fallacy
C. base rate fallacy
D. endowement fallacy
B. Planning fallacy
The treatment for the planning fallacy has now acquired a technical name, _________.
TFS p251
A. Base-rate forecasting
B. statistical forecasting
C. planning forecasting
D. reference class forecasting
D. reference class forecasting
In terms of its consequences for decisions, the ___ bias may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases.
TFS p255
A. Availability
B. Risk
C. Affect
D. Optimistic
C. Optimistic
Regarding optimism, “the misguided acquisitions have been explained by a “______”: the executives of the acquiring firm are simply less competent than they think they are.
TFS p258
A. humility hypothesis
B. hubris hypothesis
C. hungover hypothesis
D. head-on hypothesis
B. Hubris hypothesis
“Dan Lovallo and I coined the phrase “bold forecast and timid decisions” to describe the background of ____”.
TFS p263
A. Optimism
B. Investing
C. Risk taking
D. Bold action
C. Risk taking
Regarding optimism, “the main virtue of the premortem is that it legitimizes ____”.
TFS p265
A. Doubts
B. Opinions
C. Optimism
D. People
A. Doubts
____ theory, which was the foundation of the rational-agent model and is to this day the most important theory in the social sciences.
TFS p270
A. optimistic
B. endowment
C. emotional
D. expected utility
D. expected utility
Expected utility theory was not intended as a psychological model; it was a logic of ______, based on elementary rules (axioms) rationality.
TFS p270
A. decision
B. rationalism
C. choice
D. averages
C. choice
Regarding the weakness of Bernoulli’s model, his theory is too simple and lacks a moving part. The missing variable is the ___, the earlier state relative to which gains and losses are evaluated.
TFS p281
A. human error
B. reference point
C. original factors
D. optimism bias
B. reference point
Regarding the prospect theory, evaluation is relative to a neutral reference point, which is sometimes referred to as a “____”.
TFS p282
A. adaptation level
B. adjustment level
C. class level
D. fixed level
A. adaptation level
There are three cognitive features at the heart of prospect theory. Which one of these is not one of the features?
TFS p282
A. The evaluation is relative to a neutral reference point, which is sometimes referred to as an adaptation level.
B. Principle of diminishing sensitivity applies to both sensory dimensions in the evaluation of changes of wealth.
C. Loss aversion
D. Invalid reference point
D. Invalid reference point
The situation has provided a cue; this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than ___.
TFS p011
A. Recollection
B. Recognition
C. Regurgitating
D. Remembering
B. Recognition
This is the essence of ____ heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
TFS p012
A. Affect
B. Availability
C. Intuitive
D. Cognitive
C. Intuitive
Finding a strong move in chess (if you are a chess master) is ___ and telling someone your phone number is ___.
TFS p021/022
A. System 1; System 2
B. System 2; System 1
C. Could be either dependent on the person
D. None of the above
A. System 1; System 2
Psychologist speak of “executive control” to describe the adoption and termination of:
TFS p037
A. Cognitive functions
B. Task sets
C. Overload prevention
D. Memory sets
B. Task sets
The ease with which they are satisfied enough to stop thinking is rather troubling. “Lazy“ is a harsh judgment about the self monitoring of these young people in their system 2, but it does not seem to be unfair. Those who avoid the sin of intellectual sloth could be called ____.
TFS p046
A. Active
B. Commendable
C. Engaged
D. Alert
C. Engaged
A deliberate search for confirming evidence, known as ____, is also how System 2 tests a hypothesis.
TFS p081
A. Confirmation test strategy
B. Final test decision
C. Double check move
D. Positive test strategy
D. Positive test strategy
Regarding the law of small numbers, the truth is that small schools are not better on average; they are simply more ___.
TFS p118
A. Variable
B. Static
C. Dynamic
D. Preferable
A. Variable
A question we considered early was how many instances must be retrieved to get an impression of the ease with which they come to mine. We now know the answer is ____.
TFS p130
A. None
B. One to three
C. Three to five
D. Five to seven
A. None
Researchers measure the strength of relationships by a correlation coefficient, which varies between ____.
TFS p205
A. 1-20
B. 1-10
C. 0-10
D. 0-1
D. 0-1
Regarding prospect theory, in bad choices, where assure loss is compared to a larger loss that is merely probable, ____ causes risk seeking.
TFS p285
A. Enhanced sensitivity
B. Diminishing sensitivity
C. Equal sensitive
D. Situational sensitivity
B. Diminishing sensitivity
Richard Thaler found many examples of what he called the endowment effect, especially for goods that are not ___ traded.
TFS p293
A. Regularly
B. Rarely
C. Hardly
D. Frequently
A. Regularly
___ framing: a sequence of two simple decisions, considered separately.
___ framing: a single comprehensive decision with four options.
TFS p336
A. Broad; single
B. Single; Enhanced
C. Narrow; Broad
D. Broad; narrow
C. Narrow; Broad
Humans, by nature, are ___ framers.
TFS p336
A. Broad
B. Narrow
C. Enhanced
D. Single
B. Narrow
As economist and decision theorist apply the term, it means “wantability”, and I have called it ___.
TFS p378
A. Decision utility
B. Choice utility
C. Enhanced utility
D. Optimistic utility
A. Decision utility
Does the actual experience count for nothing? Confusing experience with the memory of it is a compelling ______ illusion, and it is the substitution that makes us believe a past experience can be ruined.
TFS p381
A. Anchoring
B. Effortful
C. Hueristic
D. Cognitive
D. Cognitive
We want pain to be brief and pleasure to last. But our memory, a function of system one, has evolved to represent the most intense moment of an episode of pain or pleasure (the peak) in the feelings when the episode was at its end. A memory that ___ duration will not serve our preference for long pleasure and short pains.
TFS p385
A. Emphasizes
B. Neglects
C. Exaggerates
D. Protects
B. Neglects
A/an ___ heuristic is one way to answer life satisfaction, questions.
TFS p399
A. Emotional
B. Transparent
C. Mood
D. Honest
C. Mood
Although overestimation and overweighting are distinct phenomena, the same psychological mechanisms are involved in both: focused attention, confirmation bias, and ___.
TFS p324
A. cognitive strain
B. endowement effect
C. focused attention
D. cognitive ease
D. cognitive ease
As in many other choices that involve moderate or high probabilities, people tend to be risk ____ in the domain of gains and risk _____ in the domain of losses.
TFS p334
A. averse; seeking
B. seeking; averse
C. N/A
D. N/A
A. averse; seeking
The combination of ___ aversion and ____ framing is a costly curse.
TFS p339
A. loss; narrow
B. risk; broad
C. loss; broad
D. risk; narrow
A. loss; narrow
The outside view and risky policy are remedies against two distinct biases that affect many decisions: The exaggerated optimism of the ____ and the exaggerated caution induced by __ aversion.
TFS p340
A. prospect theory; risk
B. anchors; loss
C. planning fallacy; loss
D. availability heuristic; risk
C. planning fallacy; loss
For the billionaire, looking for the extra billion, and indeed, for the participant in an experimental economics project looking for the extra dollar, money is a proxy for points on a scale of self regard and achievement. These rewards are punishments, promises and _____, all in our heads.
TFS p342
A. Solutions
B. Threats
C. Rewards
D. Negatives
B. Threats
As might be expected, finance research has documented a massive preference for selling winners rather than losers, a bias that has been given an opaque label: the ____. (The ____ is an instance of narrow framing)
TFS p344
A. Disposition effect
B. Finality effect
C. Right-choice effect
D. Winners-losers effect
A. Disposition effect
The decision to invest additional resources in a losing account, when better investments are available, is known as __, a costly mistake that is observed in decisions, large and small.
TFS p345
A. derivative fallacy
B. sunk-cost fallacy
C. inside-view fallacy
D. framing-fallacy
B. sunk-cost fallacy
In the presence of sunk cost, the managers incentives are misaligned with the objectives of the firm and its shareholders, a familiar type of what is known as the ___ problem.
TFS p346
A. corporate
B. agency
C. team
D. character
B. agency
The ____ fallacy keeps people for too long and poor jobs, unhappy, marriages, and unpromising research projects.
TFS p346
A. narrative
B. sunk-cost
C. risk
D. intuitive
B. sunk-cost
____ is one of the counterfactual emotions that are triggered by the availability of alternatives to reality.
TFS p346
A. Hope
B. Desirability
C. Change
D. Regret
D. Regret
The asymmetry in the risk of regret favors ____ and ____ choices.
TFS p349
A. Unconventional; loss averse
B. Conventional; loss averse
C. Conventional; risk averse
D. Unconventional; risk averse
C. Conventional; risk averse
Losses are weighted about ___ as much as gains in several contexts: choice between gambles, the endowment effect, and reactions to price changes.
TFS p349
A. Twice
B. Triple
C. Four-times
D. Five-times
A. Twice
Daniel Gilbert and his colleagues provocatively claimed that people generally anticipate more regret than they will actually experience, because they underestimate the efficacy of the psychological defenses they will deploy–they label the “______”.
TFS p352
A. Psychological defense system.
B. Psychological awareness system
C. Psychological response system.
D. Psychological immune system.
D. Psychological immune system.
my personal hindsight avoiding policy is to be either ___ or ___ when making a decision with long-term consequences.
TFS p352
A. Very thorough; completely casual
B. Mildly thorough; mildly casual
C. Not thorough, not casual
D. N/A
A. Very thorough; completely casual
_____ – the study of what a person’s brain does while he is making decisions.
TFS p366
A) psychonomics
B) economical focus
C) mental economics
D) neuroeconomics
D) neuroeconomics
WYSIATI facilitates the achievement of coherence and of cognitive ease that causes us to accept statement as true. However, I will also invoke WYSIATI to help explain a long and diverse list of biases of judgment and choice, including the following among many others. Which one is not one of the mentioned topics?
TFS p087
A. Overconfidence.
B. Framing affects
C. Base-rate Neglect.
D. Loss aversion
D. Loss Aversion
Outcomes that are almost certain are given less weight than their probability justifies.
TFS p311
A. certainty effect
B. substantiated effect
C. overconfidence effect
D. none of the above
A. certainty effect
The ___________ of preferences is considered one of the core achievements of prospect theory.
TFS p317
A. fourfold theory
B. fourfold bias
C. fourfold pattern
D. Fourfold effect
C. fourfold pattern
