thinking and reasoning

Question 1

the rationale animal

Answer 1

• Reason, Judgements and Decisions
• Formal conditional reasoning
• Induction, deduction and Syllogistic reasoning (Wason)
• Bias and heuristics
• Rules of thumb
• Representation heuristic
• Interim Summary

Question 2

are we rationale

Answer 2

• Dual process models
• Reasoning isn’t limited
• Moral decisions (Trolley problems)
• Social reasoning (Wason again)
• Bounded rationality
• What is it, and are we bounded?
• Closing Summary

Question 3

decisions

Answer 3

Selecting from a number of options
• e.g. Will it rain today?, Should I stay at home?, Should I take a coat?
• Information is often incomplete. Typically, consequential (maximise positive)

Question 4

judgements

Answer 4

assessment of the likelihood of an event occurring based on incomplete information
• Often forms basis of decision process. What matters accuracy!
• Accurate estimation of likelihood relies on algorithms (e.g. y=mx+c; T/D=S)

Question 5

formal conditional reasoning rule

Answer 5

• In formal conditional reasoning we draw a conclusion from IF – THEN propositions (premises).
• If this (antecedent) then that (consequence)

Question 6

modus ponens

Answer 6

(inference)

• IF A THEN B (If A is true then so is B): e.g. “If it goes woof, it is a dog

Question 7

modus tollens

Answer 7

(valid argument and a rule of inference)

• IF not B THEN not A (If it is not B then it is not A): e.g. “If it is not a dog it won’t go woof”

Question 8

inductive reasoning

Answer 8

• Forming conclusion based on previous example
- They might be probable/likely but not certain
• Most common everyday reasoning and inference making.
• For example, Generalisations
- posh people play rugby in England, Working class people play football)

Question 9

deductive reasoning

Answer 9

• Involves Modus tollens (valid argument and a rule of inference)
• It is reasoning from specific facts (If A and If B then C) to a conclusion
• Conclusions follow from the premises that the assumptions it is based on are valid
• Not the most common form day-to-day or moment to moment but we do, do it.

“If a dormouse get’s stuck in a hoover nozzle and if you switch it from suck to blow, then the laws of physics would suggest it will pop out”

Question 10

deductive reasoning

Answer 10

• Deductive reasoning involves from the general to the specific
• Syllogistic reasoning is one form of deductive reasoning:
• A conclusion is inferred (logically deduced) from a premise (proposition) or premises (essentially a statement about something)

Question 11

wason (1968) selection task

Answer 11

• Rule: If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side
• Which card or cards should you turn to find out if the rule is true?

Question 12

cognitive bias and heuristics

Answer 12

• Very common in reasoning and problem solving
• Short cuts and rules of thumb
1. A way of enabling us to learn, discover solve or decide something
2. Cognitively undemanding (remember: we have lazy, limited brains)
3. Fast and frugal (approximately accurate) answers most of the time
4. Example : Think of a surgeon. Imagine them standing in front of you in a hospital.

Question 13

availability heuristics

Answer 13

occurs when people make judgements about the probability of events by the ease with which examples come to mind (e.g. Stuff in the news )

Question 14

representative heuristics

Answer 14

tend to assume objects or events belong to the same category because they are similar (e.g. Sally read, her horoscope, believes in healing stones and fairy magic. Is she likely to be a school-teacher or a holistic healer?)

Question 15

familiarity heuristics

Answer 15

“assume that the circumstances underlying the past behavior still hold true for the present situation and that the past behavior thus can be correctly applied to the new situation. Especially prevalent when the individual experiences a high cognitive load” (e.g. “always having chips on holiday and not trying the local food”)

Question 16

confirmation bias

Answer 16

“The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions” (e.g. “I know she’s a terrible girlfriend, but they always buy me nice presents for my birthday, so they must love me”)

Question 17

dunning-kruger effect

Answer 17

“The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their own ability”. (e.g “I read all about it on the internet” Vs “I don’t need to look it up, I’m a Doctor”)

Question 18

implicit bias

Answer 18

“Tendency to attribute positive or negative qualities to a group of individuals. It can be fully non-factual or be an abusive generalization of a frequent trait in a group to all individuals of that group.” (e.g. “Everyone who watches Love Island is stupid, boys who cry are weak”)

Question 19

interim summary

Answer 19

• Formal conditional reasoning is the height of being human… apparently
• But it’s hard work and people often fail to reason appropriately if at all. This was best demonstrated in the Wason deductive reasoning task
• Judgements (and decisions) typically involve biases and heuristics (they even influence formal logical reasoning).
• Bias and Heuristics are fast and the frugal and the work most of the time.
• Given that we are often poor at formal reasoning are we really rational thinkers at all?

Question 20

so are we rational beings?

Answer 20

• Our everyday thinking is less rational than we believe
• We are less deliberate in accurately thinking things through
• We make mistakes (but are they “errors”?)
• They mostly work… we only notice when they don’t
• Our ability to think seems limited

Question 21

why reasoning isnt limited

Answer 21

1. We don’t have all the facts or it is often unclear which information is important in a given problem space
2. Human heuristics and bias are NOT errors. They are short cuts that allow rapid access to reasonably accurate judgements and decisions
3. So call “errors may reflect the artificiality of the problem

Question 22

consequentialism

Answer 22

greatest good, least harm (outcome)

Question 23

deontological

Answer 23

highest morality: acting to killing is wrong (behaviour)

Question 24

omission bias

Answer 24

• Tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral than harmful omissions (inactions/ doing nothing) even if they are just as bad
• We do this because the harmful act is more obvious than the inaction

Question 25

why vaccinate?

Answer 25

• 10 chances in 10,000 (0.1% chance) that child would die from flu if not vaccinated
• 100% certain that the vaccine would prevent death from flu.
• BUT there are potential side effects e.g. brain damage, developmental disorders, reduce life expectancy, death.
• Found
• Most parents would not vaccinate if risk rate of harm was more than 5 in 10,000 (0.05% chance)
• Would rather risk harm from inaction than through action

Question 26

ommison bias cross cultures

Answer 26

• Omission bias is more common in more educated groups than poorly educated groups in Mayan societies
• Poorly educated groups tended to be more socially orientated: vaccination is fulfilling one’s social duty to the wider society
• NB: there are cross-cultural differences in the Trolley problem

Question 27

evolutionary adeptness

Answer 27

• We are social animals evolved to solve social problems
• Reasoning tasks are easier in a social context because we evolved to processes social information not abstract information
• Formal reasoning is possible

Question 28

conditional reasoning

wason in a scoial context

Answer 28

• Type of task and is important (e.g. Cosmides & John Tooby, 1992)
• RULE: Getting “ID”-ed (having your id checked in a bar)- If you are drinking alcohol then you must be over 18 years old
• Which card or cards should you turn to find out if the rule is true?

Question 29

bounded rational thinking

Answer 29

1. It’s hard work to be rational all the time
2. System limits (sort term memory capacity, available long term memory, attention, language)
3. Heuristics and bias mostly work, they’re easy and inexpensive
4. So may be it depends on what you mean by rational…

Question 30

so what is rationality

Answer 30

• Deciding if we are rational (or not) depends on how you define it.
• Classically – rational thought is governed by logical thinking
• We are typically very poor at deductive (logical) reasoning tasks in most instances, especially as they get more complex
• Thus it appears that humans are not very rational, if it involves applying formal rules

Question 31

normativism

Answer 31

“…human thinking reflects a normative system [one confirming to norms or standards] against which it should be measured and judged.“ (Elquayam & Evans, 2011; p.233)

Question 32

human reasoning is largely probabilistic

Answer 32

• Human reasoning involves a subjective belief and prior experience (what we already know)
• We take what we already know, or think we know or believe, and adapt it when we are given new information, which we then use to reason
• In the real world our thinking takes place in context:
• We are biased by expectations (what is expected of us), accountability (the consequences of our actions for our selves and others) and emotion (positive and negative)

Question 33

bounded rationality

Answer 33

• Simon (1945) behviour is rational, in so far as it selects alternatives
• Thinking is pragmatic not normative
• Simon (1957): We have bounded rationality
• We produce workable solutions to problems in spite of limited processing ability by using short-cut (heuristics and biases)
• Errors in thinking might not be errors at all given the situation