Theme 4 Content Flashcards
4.1 - International economics
What is globalisation?
Growing interdependence of countries and the rapid rate of change in the world
4.1 - International economics
Define interdependence:
Define interdependence: The integration of local, regional, national economies into a single international market.
4.1 - International economics
How have economies integrated?
Free trade of goods and services
Free movement of FoP
Free exchange of tech + intellectual capital
4.1 - International economics
What are the 6 restrictions to globalisation? (PATS QE)
- Protectionism
- Administrative barriers
- Tariffs
- Subsidies to domestic industry
- Quotas
- Embargoes
4.1 - International economics
What does trade liberalisation mean?
Reduced protectionism
4.1 - International economics
What is a synonym for globalisation?
Free trade
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on consumers?
↑ Choice - range of global products from global producers
↓ Prices - more competition and production is being switched from high cost to low cost locations
Loss of culture
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation for workers?
- Job loss in non-comp. industries
- Inc. employment in comp. industries
- ↑ Migration - Many migrants have moved for better economic opportunities and standard of living. Migration can fill skill gaps in the economy, raise productivity, reduce wage costs and increase competitiveness. But native workers might see migrants as lowering wage rates due to competition in the job market. Might strain the welfare state.Immobility of labour can be seen as market/government failure.
- ↓ Wages - have to compete on global scale - so unskilled wages go down as more supply. Skilled workers likely unaffected as less of them
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on firms?
Specialisation and economic interdependency
-> Firms are now dependent on long and complicated supply chains of other firms.
-> Firms are increasingly specialised on specific tasks.
Costs and markets
-> Lower costs being able to use lower paid workers and source materials from cheap firms.
-> New markets firms can sell to- economies of scale.
-> Forces firms to compete with each other - Greater dynamic efficiency and prevents x-inefficiency. Prevents build up of monopolies.
Footloose capitalism
-> Firms can operate in several countries to maximise profits. Might move production from the UK or USA to India or Thailand. This means that they are exploiting comparative advantage.
Tax avoidance
-> Transfer pricing - TNCs reduce taxes on profits by selling goods at a low price internally from a high tax country to another part of the company in a low-tax country.
-> Set up office in a low-tax country like Ireland, Luxembourg or the Bahamas. - Google, Apple, Intel Pfizer have all moved their European headquarters to Ireland.
4.1 - International economics
How does an increase in globalisation affect eco growth?
Increases injections, FDI, increases Real GDP
(However could negatively effect environmnent)
4.1 - International economics
What are the diagrammatical effects of globalisation?
A reduction in price from P to P1
Increased overall Qd
(However, reduction in domestic Qs)
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4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on firms?
- Diversification of supply chains.
- ↘︎ Risk
- Exploitation (divide labour market).
- ↗︎ Profits
- Firms who unable to compete internationally will lose out.
4.1 - International economics
What are the characteristics of globalisation?
- Increased trade of goods and services across national boundaries.
- Increased movement of labour between countries. (migration)
- Increased movement of capital between countries
- Increased interchange of technology and intellectual capital
- Increasing connectivity of people, communities and business through networks
- Creation of global supply chains & new trade and investment routes in the world economy
Leads to greater specialisation and interdependence.
4.1 - International economics
What are the causes of globalisation
- Advancement in technology, communications, IT, transport - Makes it easier for firms to communicate across state lines in different parts of the world. People can work for London firms from anywhere in the in the world.
- Trade liberalisation - Protectionism has fallen due to the neoliberal orthodoxy - Washington Consensus, WTO.
- International financial flows and Foreign ownership of firms - Removal of capital controls/ deregulation has meant that countries can invest in other countries and grow rapidly.
- TNCs - Take advantage of economies of scale and make products in countries with lower costs. - Global brand
- Reduced cost/improvement of transportation - e.g. containerisation - the real prices/costs of ocean and air shipping have come down due to containerization & economies of scale in freight industries and the huge ports built to serve them
- Differences in tax systems – Some countries have adjusted their corporate tax rates in a bid to attract inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) - such as Ireland. Uk corporate tax rate is 25%
- Collapose of Communisim in Eastern Europe and opening up of China
- Increased international labour mobility
- Increased mobility of labour
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems for Ireland cutting taxes so low to attract TNCs.
- Other countries like France and Germany are not happy - Joseph Stiglitz accused Ireland of ‘Stealing revenues’
- The United states cut corporate tax to 21% down from 35% to lure American countries back.
-> Game theory suggests that if all countries cut taxes, then everyone is left with lower tax revenues.
-> Countries are ‘footloose’ meaning that they might leave Ireland if tax incentives change - Distorts official statistics - makes growth appear higher than it actually is.
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on governments?
- Government now have to take a more ‘entreprenurial role’ in the economy, investing and intervening in order to improve a country’s international competitiveness.
- Lowering taxes, giving subsidies, spending on education and reserach.
- Some governments forced to concede to the power of multinationals - Uber withdrew operations in Tanzania after government tried to regulate fares and cut comissions.
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of globalisation on the environment?
- Global supply chains, industrialisation, mass consumption, transporting goods, use of raw materials and fossil fuels has greatly increased emissions.
- Between 1990 and 2021, greenhouse gases rose by about 50%. Estimates from the UNEP suggest that the world is on track for a 2.5ºC increase in temperatures.
- Deforestation in Brazil.
- Rich countries like Sweden have been able to invest in climate-friendlier technologies.
- Footloose multinationals have been able to pillage environment due to incentives to cut climate regulations.
4.1 - International economics
Discuss two macroeconomic policies, apart from protectionism, that a government could use to reduce the negative effects of globalisation. (12) (2018)
- One way to tackle the ‘low wages’, ‘insecure employment and inequalities’ created by globalisation is by investing in education and training.
- Investing will improve human capital and make workers more productive. This means that they can be more competitive against foreign competition and recieve higher wages. Less likely to be undercut.
- This will help solve the ‘low wages’ and striking inequalities that have been created by globalisation.
- Evaluation - Time lag. Education and training will take a long time, and might not be an option for many e.g. the elderly. Also conflicts with the government budget
- Another way to tackle the ‘relative poverty’ and ‘striking inequalities’ created by globalisation is to introduce a more redistributive tax system.
- Tax corporations and MNCs like Google, and give them to lower paid workers. This increases aggregate demand as lower paid workers have a migher MPC and reduces unemployment.
- Higher wages and living standards therefore reduces the inequality and poverty created by globalisation.
- Evaluation - Might be counterproductive because MNCs are ‘footlose’, it means that they will move to Ireland or Bermuda. This results in a net welfare los
4.1 - International economics
Why do improvements in technology mean globalisation?
- Easier to transport goods/services/capital across national boundaries - countries can focus on producing and exporting goods - increased specialisation and interdependence.
- Technology means that capital can move across the world
- People can work remotely.
- Rapid share of information.
4.1 - International economics
What has caused deglobalisation?
- Countries are worried about external economic shocks and interdependent supply chains.
- So are trying to reshore and make products closer to home - start building facilities.
- Zero Covid policy and conflict with Taiwan
- Invasion of Ukraine
- Brexit
- Inflation reduction Act.
4.1 - International economics
What are the drawbacks of globalisation
- Brain drain in LEDCs
- Negative externalities
- Exploitation of cheap labour
- Dumping
- Increased unemployment
- Increased relative poverty/inequality within developed economies
- Increased vulnerability/overdependence on imports
- MNCs might engage in tax avoidance
- Environmental damage
4.1 - International economics
Why is tax avoidance bad?
- Means that resources can be exploited
- Bad for the government budget balance.
- Welfare loss - Western conglomerates siphon off profits to tax havens, whilst developing countries are unable to fund infrastructure, education. Keeps people in poverty.
- Erosion of sovereignty e.g. Uber suspended operations in Tanzania after they tried to regulate fairs
4.1 - International economics
How can the government reduce the negative impacts of globalisation?
4.1 - International economics
When does comparative advantage occur?
When one country can produce a good / service at a lower OC cost than another country.
4.1 - International economics
What does absolute advantage mean?
When an economy can produce a greater total of goods for the same quantity of inputs.
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What does the theory of reciprocal comparative advantage state?
This occurs when two countries have absolute advantage in different products.
Countries should specialise in their advantage and import the good they don’t have advantage in.
4.1 - International economics
When does reciprocal comparative advantage occur?
When two countries, with absolute advantages in different products trade with each other
4.1 - International economics
What is an evaluation to theory of reciprocal comparative advantage?
Theory of comparative advantage - even if a country has absolute advantage in all goods, trade can still benefit if there is a difference in the OC
4.1 - International economics
How can a resource-poor country with no absolute advantages gain from trade?
As long as a country has a comparative advantage in some resource (as long as it faces a lower opportunity cost than another country for that resource), then it can benefit from trade.
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of Specialization and Trade in an International Context
- Efficiency and Productivity: Specialization allows countries to focus on producing what they are most efficient at, leading to increased productivity and economic growth.
- Consumer Benefits: International trade provides consumers with a wider variety of goods and services at competitive prices, improving their standard of living.
- Resource Allocation: It enables efficient resource allocation as countries can allocate resources to industries where they have a comparative advantage, reducing wastage.
- Economies of Scale: Specialization often leads to larger production scales, which can result in economies of scale, further reducing production costs.
- International Cooperation: Trade fosters peaceful international relations and cooperation as countries become interdependent.
- Theory of comparative advantage states countries should specialise in goods with the lowest OC - (This will boost economy + lead to greater output globally).
4.1 - International economics
What are the disadvantages of specialisation to trade?
- Countries could become over-dependent. (if one export fails, collapse. e.g. Manchester, shipbuilding). Dutch disease.
- High interdependence - trade prevented e.g. wars = massive problems.
- Job Displacement: Specialization can lead to job displacement in industries where a country does not have a comparative advantage, causing unemployment and social issues.
- Dependency: Over-reliance on imports for critical goods can make a country vulnerable to supply disruptions or price fluctuations.
- Income Inequality: While trade can benefit a nation as a whole, it may exacerbate income inequality if the gains are not equitably distributed.
- Environmental Concerns: Specialization in resource-intensive industries may lead to environmental degradation if not regulated properly.
- Trade Imbalances: Persistent trade deficits can lead to indebtedness and economic instability for some countries.
- Loss of Domestic Control: Relying on imports for essential goods can compromise a nation’s control over its own economy and security.
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of a country that lost comparative advantage and its consequences:
Italy lost comparative advantage for manufacturing, forced to move from a secondary to a tertiary economy.
4.1 - International economics
Evidence how trade liberalisation can lead to eco development:
Efficient use of resources for comparative advantage.
Export-led growth. e.g. Singapore and South Korea.
4.1 - International economics
Give a diagram for the theory of comparative advantage:
Even though USA has an absolute adv. in both machines + food, OC of the two countries are different.
Theory of comparative adv. states countries should specialise where they have the lowest OC.
USA - machines, G. - food.
4.1 - International economics
Why do countries still trade even if one country has an absolute advantage?
Because they may still be able to produce a good at a lower relative opportunity cost.
This means that both countries can focus on what they have a lower opportunity cost in and increase total output.
4.1 - International economics
How could the negative impacts of primary product dependence be evaluated? Why might primary product dependence not be so bad?
- LEDCs may have a comparative advantage in primary products - Therefore should continue to develop in areas which they are strongest - Argument given by the Bad Samaritans
- Some rich countries have been able to use primary products to develop - Saudi Arabia and oil. - Primary product revenue should be used to reinvest into manufacturing.
- Forward markets can be used to fix prices in advanced to reduce volatility and risk.
- Not all primary products have a low YED - Diamonds in Botswana.
- Primary products rose steeply in price between 2000-2008 while prices for manufactured goods was falling. They also rose post-pandemic.
4.1 - International economics
What are the assumptions of the theory of comparative advantage
- Ignores transport costs - Might eliminate comparative cost advantage.
- Ignores economies of scale.
- Assumes there are only two economies producing two goods.
- Assumes that traded goods are homogenous.
- Assumes perfect factor mobility.
- Assumes no trade barriers
- Assumes perfect information
4.1 - International economics
What are the limitations of comparative advantage? List them.
- Transport costs are not considered
- Strategic industries - risky to be reliant on another country
- Not just 2 countries in the world producing goods
- Infant industries might be damaged
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What are the 4 factors influencing the pattern of trade?
- Trading Blocs - within blocs members have reduced trade barriers so more trade between them
- Exchange rate - changes in exchange rate mean changes in competitiveness of exports and amount of imports, SPICED/WIDEC
- Emerging economies - they are major exporters of manufactured goods and services, altering global trade dynamics
- Comparative advantage - countries exports g/s that they have comparative advantage in and import those they have a disadvantage in. This drives international trade patterns
(TEEC)
Also
* Tarrif and non tarrif barriers, FDI, changes in competitiveness and inflation rates.
4.1 - International economics
What is trade diversion?
When the patterns of trade are changed, due to blocs.
(Reduced benefits from specialisation).
4.1 - International economics
How has the UK pattern of trade chanaged in the past 60 years?
- UK has increasingly hada comparative advantage in services rather than good.
-> Usually financial services. - Foreign trade has increased as a proportion of GDP. Exports are now around 30% of national income.
- The UK does earn money from North Sea Oil.
- EU has become main trading partner since joining the EEC
4.1 - International economics
What does terms of trade measure?
The rate of exchange of one product for another when two countries trade.
4.1 - International economics
What does ToT tell us in terms of the quantity of imports and exports?
The quantity of exports that need to be sold to buy a given quantity of imports.
4.1 - International economics
Give the equation for terms of trade:
Avg export prices index / Avg import prices index x 100.
(Remember X over M).
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What Terms of Trade (ToT) does the UK aim for?
Increasing, increased injections into economy.
4.1 - International economics
How do we know how X and M prices affect ToT?
Use equation ToT = avg.Xprices/ avg.M prices.
If X prices ↑, ToT ↑.
If M prices ↓, ToT ↑.
4.1 - International economics
What affects ToT in the SR / LR?
SR - anything that affects price
LR - anything that affects productivity
4.1 - International economics
What is the Prebisch-singer hypothesis?
In the LR, the price of primary products declines compared to manufactured products.
(Terms of trade for primary products tends to fall in the LR).
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis:
Profit margins for chocolate are better than cocoa.
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What is a synonym to ‘Dutch disease’?
Primary product dependency.
4.1 - International economics
When does Dutch disease occur?
When rapid development of one sector of the economy precipitates a decline in other (non-resources) sectors.
(Other industries don’t take off, Rostow’s model doesn’t occur).
4.1 - International economics
What are the factors influencing the terms of trade?
- A change in exchange rate. spiced/widec
- Inflation
- A change in demand for imports and exports
- Changing incomes affect pattens of demand.
- Changes in productivity
- Incomes
- PRIMARY PRODUCT DEPEDENCY
- Protectionism - tarrifs increase prices so terms of trade worsen
4.1 - International economics
What two things would cause an improvement in the terms of trade?
Falling import prices
Rising export prices
4.1 - International economics
Give examples of what would cause an improvement in the terms of trade.
Inflation - would increase export prices.
Tarrifs - would increase import prices.
An appreciation in the exchange rate
4.1 - International economics
Give examples of what would cause a deterioration in the terms of trade?
Higher productivity
A weaker exchange rate
4.1 - International economics
Assume that demand for imports and exports are price inelastic. There is an improvement in the terms of trade. What would happen to:
- Import expenditure
- Export revenue
- Affect on the overall economy?
- Would lead to a reduction in import expenditure
- A rise in export revenue
- Increase in net trade and an improvement in the balance of payments.
4.1 - International economics
When is an improvement in the terms of trade a good thing?
- If imports are price inelastic - consumers are not responsive to the fall in price so spend less on imports
- And exports are price inelastic - other countries continue to buy exports despite the increase in price.
4.1 - International economics
When would an improvement in the terms of trade be a bad thing?
- If demand for imports imports are elastic
- And demand for exports are price elastic
4.1 - International economics
Assume that demand for imports and exports are price inelastic. There is an deterioration in the terms of trade. What would happen to
- Import expenditure
- Export revenue
- Affect on the overall economy?
- Increase in import expenditure
- Decrease in export revenue
- Bad for current account balance
4.1 - International economics
Assume that demand for imports and exports are price elastic. There is an deterioration in the terms of trade. What would happen to
- Import expenditure
- Export revenue
- Affect on the overall economy?
- Fall in import spending
- Increased export revenue
- There is an improvement on the current accounta balance of payments
4.1 - International economics
Textbook question - Discuss whether the changes in the terms of trade between 2012 and 2014 are likely to have led to an improvement in the current account position on the balance of payments for Australia (10)
- Likely will be bad for the current account - commidities are very price inelastic.
- This would mean as prices fall, export revenues will also fall
- This means a deterioration in trade balances and cut in aggregate demand.
- Evaluation- Commodities are very volatile. Likely future increase. Longrun/short run.
- Or, depends on what is happening with imports.
4.1 - International economics
Why might a decline in the terms of trade a problem?
- For every import, a country has to export more
- A decline in terms of trade reduces the ability to import goods.
- Less purchasing power means worse standards of living
- Can make it harder to pay foreign debt.
4.1 - International economics
Why might a decline in terms of trade be not such a bad thing?
- Might make exports more competitive - better for balance of payments.
- The impact of a decline in the terms of trade will depend on the elasticity of demand. If demand is elastic, the lower price of exports will cause a bigger % increase in demand.
- Some LDC’s have seen an improvement in terms of trade because of rising price of commodities and food post-2008. It is not always LDCs who see a decline in the terms of trade.
- It is important to distinguish between a short-term decline in terms of trade and a long-term decline. A long-term decline is more serious for reflecting a fall in living standards.
4.1 - International economics
What is a trading bloc?
A group of countries with trade agreements.
4.1 - International economics
Outline the 7 different forms of trading blocs:
Regional Trading Bloc.
Free Trade Area
Preferential Trade Area
Customs union.
Common / single markets.
Monetary unions.
Economic union.
4.1 - International economics
Define a Regional Trading Bloc:
A group of countries in a geographical region that protect themselves from imports from non-members.
(Also reduction / elimination of internal tariffs).
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of a regional trading bloc:
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
4.1 - International economics
What are the benefits of regional trade agreements?
- Trade creation - Makes it easier for countries to trade within the bloc and specialise - Exploit comparative advantage. Economies of scale from new markets. Greater competition
- More FDI - MNCs can invest in the free trade area as they can avoid tariffs and other trade restrictions.
4.1 - International economics
What are the costs of regional trade agreements?
- Trade diversion - Trade is diverted away from former partners - when the UK joined the EU it began trading less with the commonwealth. might lead to overall fall in economic output.
- Country might be better off outside - they can sign lots of bi-lateral agreements
- Might make developing countries worse off - Do not have enough economies of scale so their infant industries die off.
- Less efficient use of world resources - Trading blocs distort comparative advantage because they entain the use of trade restrctions - Might be more effective to persue global free trade in the WTO.
- Increased negative externalities of production, resource depletion & environmental damage
4.1 - International economics
Define Free Trade Area
Reduced tariff barriers on all goods coming from other members.
(Members allowed to impose restrictions on those outside the FTA)
4.1 - International economics
Define preferential trading areas:
Reduced barriers on some goods
(Used to protect domestic industries)
4.1 - International economics
Define customs union
The removal of tariff barriers between members and acceptance of common external tariff against non-members.
May also have preferential import tariffs rates that apply to trade agreements with the customs union has entered into with other countries or groupings of countries
4.1 - International economics
Define a Common / single market:
No barriers to trade between members - freedom of asset / factor mobility.
Common external tariffs on imported goods from outside.
4.1 - International economics
What do common markets require, to succeed?
Harmonisation of macroeconomic policies e.g. common rules regarding monopoly powers, anti-competitive practices and the removal of custom posts.
(Best example is the EU).
4.1 - International economics
How do common markets attempt to create as integreted an economy as possible? (4)
- No customs posts between countries - Just as goods and people are free to travel between Manchester and London, they should be as free to travel between London and Milan
- Identical product standards - The existence of individual national safety standards on cars, for instance, is a barrier to trade just as it would be if cars sold in London had to meet different safety regulations as cars in Bristol
- Harmonisation of taxes- If the tax on the same car is £2000 more in the UK than in France, then UK residents will buy their cars in France and drive them over -> distorting pattern of trade
- A common currency - Having to buy foreign currency is a barrier to trade, hence there should be a common currency as there is in the UK
4.1 - International economics
Pros of joining EU single market
- Import-tariffs free access to a single market of nearly 500 million people - Opportunity to exploit economies of scale – leading lower long run unit costs and higher profits
- Easier access to foreign direct investment - Inward FDI can lift trend rates of economic growth and raise factor productivity
- Access to EU structural funds - Investment helps improve infrastructure and potential output (long run aggregate supply
- Better access to EU capital markets - Eu companies can more easily raise extra investment funds from bond and capital markets
- Discipline of intense competition from being inside the EU single market - Businesses must become more cost efficient + improve their dynamic efficiency to remain competitive
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantages of joining the EU single market
- ‘lack of control’ over immigration
- Fairness/equity of subsidies + grants
- Competition -> loss of domestic jobs
- Profits/wealth in capital markets
4.1 - International economics
What is a monetary union?
Countries with a single currency and exchange rates monitored by a central bank.
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of a monetary union and describe what these entail:
EU - Eurozone.
(Results in loss of monetary policy for members).
4.1 - International economics
What are the advantages of a monetary union?
- Trade creation - Specialise, Comparative Advantage.
- Savings on transaction costs - No need to convert currencies.
- Greater certainty for firms - Fluctuations are less likely. Increases business confidence. Firms do not have to worry about unfavourable currency fluctuations. For example, after the mini budget the £ fell to almost parity with the dollar.
- Increased economies of scale - New markets are unlocked, firms can expand and reduce costs.
- Price stability
- Currency risk – Euro is more stable than smaller currencies. Reduced currency risk makes is easier for smaller countries to borrow money
- Trade – Euro enhances the gains from being in the single market – e.g. it encourages more cross border trade in goods and services
- Investment – Membership of Euro is likely to stimulate inward investment e.g. in industries such as tourism, financial services, car-making
- Competition – Euro increases price transparency and market competition which then helps consumers to find products at better prices
4.1 - International economics
What are the disadvantages of a monetary union?
- Loss of control over monetary policy - countries can’t use monetary policy in order to adopt to local problems. One sized fits all.
- Loss of exchange rate flexibility
- Reduced control over fiscal policy - 3 % limit on budget deficit and 60% limit on national debt or face a fine
- Transition costs - Adjustment costs when switching currencies
- Makes countries excessively interdependent - Contagion.
4.1 - International economics
What are the conditions necessary for the success of a monetary union?
- Similar trade cycles - So that interest rates synergise. E.g. interest rate rises to curb inflation in a booming Germany will not help Spain if it is in recession.
- Mobility of factors of production - Reduces the impact of shocks, as worker can migrate to other countries.
- Mobility of finance - There should be complete mobility of finance with prices & wages free to adjust based on market conditions.
- Automatic fiscal transfers - Some form of automatic fiscal transfer is needed for countries that are doing badly. E.g. Greece and Portugal. This will reudce the need of excahnge rate adjustment, which might have ben the prior policy response.
- Similar economic situation – so interest rate changes have similar effects across the union
4.1 - International economics
What is the objective of the WTO?
To help members use trade to raise living standards and create jobs.
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What does the WTO (World Trade Organisation) provide?
Tries to negotiate trade agreements and resolve trade problems.
(By reducing protectionism + ↑ integration).
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What are some criticisms of the WTO?
- Allows rich countries to exploit developing countries, paying low wages and making them work in conditions that would be completely unacceptable in the developed world - Glencore in Zambia, DRC
- Is causing environmental disaster as rich countries plunder the poor countries
- Destroys native cultures and replaces it with an American way of life.
- Forces poor countries to lower their barriers to trade whilst rich countries keep theirs
- Gives ownership of the rules of the world trading system to a few rich countries and their multinational companies
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Multilateral vs regional trade agreements (WTO
- If the WTO cannot produce multilateral agreements between all member countries then countries will resort to signing ever more regional trade agreements (RTAs)
- RTAs do not produce anywhere near the economic gains that could be achieved by a world trade agreement
- Still arguably better than nothing so long as trade creation > trade diversion
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Roles of the WTO
- Conductor – come up with a set of rules that apply to international trade. They also bring countries together at conferences & encourages them to reduce or eliminate protectionist trade barriers between themselves e.g. The Doha Round conferences
- Tribunal role – Settling disputes between members, countries are encouraged to work it out between themselves but sometimes they don’t. Member countries can file a complaint if they believe a trading partner has violated a trade agreement. The WTO will then run a hearing & make a judgement
- Monitor roles – The WTO reviews the trade policies of its members to make sure that WTO rules are being applied fairly and consistently
- Training role - The WTO provides training to government official in (mostly) developing countries, to help them engage in trade with other WTO members.
4.1 - International economics
Define tariffs:
Taxes placed on imports.
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Give the tariffs diagram
X and Y represent net welfare loss.
Yellow box represents govt. rev.
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What is the key difference between a tariff and a quota?
Welfare loss is greater with quotas, as there is no tax revenue generated by the govt
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How does the imposition of a tariff change the quantity supplied (Qs) for domestic producers and world producers?
Qs of domestic producers increases from Q1 to Q4.
Qs of world producers decreases from Q2 to Q3.
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What does the imposition of a tariff do to prices?
Increases prices, due to reduced world supply. Reduces QoL for consumers.
However, govt. revenue from tax may improve QoL in LR (hypothecated).
Other eval: Infant industry argument: domestic producers increase producer surplus + increased market share increased job protection in domestic economy.
4.1 - International economics
For tariffs, what is the overall result of the loss in consumer + gain in producer surplus?
Triangles X and Y = net welfare loss.
(Net welfare loss as areas of X and Y larger than revenue).
Reduction in CS larger than increase in PS.
4.1 - International economics
Apart from the net welfare loss, what is another downside to tariffs?
Potential distortion of comparative adv. - as this theory assumes no tariffs.
Tariff alters the cost advantage that countries may have built up through specialisation.
(Another downside is retaliation - need a para to memorise for this one).
4.1 - International economics
On any protectionist diagram, in what conditions do we assume the supply of imports (World supply) is perfectly elastic / horizontal?
When importing country represents a very small proportion of the total demand for the good.
∴ Any protectionist diagram can be evaluated by elasticity of world supply i.e the optimal tariff argument.
4.1 - International economics
What does the optimal tariff argument include?
A country with a large proportion of global trade experiences a smaller price increase when tariffs are imposed.
Reducing the MSC all while govt. benefits from tax rev.
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Why does the domestic price increase very little in the optimal tariff argument?
The country with a large proportion of global demand reduces global price (as they import less).
The usual price increase of a tariff is offset by this fall in global prices.
4.1 - International economics
What are the 2 key benefits to the optimal tariff theory?
- Not much increase in domestic price (as share of global demand is sufficiently large for protectionist country).
- Tax revenue for govt. equal to the value previously earned by foreign producers (before the fall in world prices).
4.1 - International economics
For countries that possess a small proportion of global trade what does the world supply look like on a diagram?
Horizontal, perfectly elastic.
4.1 - International economics
How can a tariff actually increase a countries’ welfare?
Optimal tariff theory:
Tariff can actually increase a countries welfare, if the area of tax revenue is larger than the loss in consumer surplus.
(Condition is country must represent large proportion of global demand).
4.1 - International economics
How do we calculate tariff revenue?
Size of tariff x no. of imports.
4.1 - International economics
What is the main evaluation to optimal tariff theory?
Retaliation.
(Countries will retaliate with tariffs that cause domestic country to overcome their portion of DWL).
4.1 - International economics
What is an anti-dumping tariff?
An additional tariff, above normal import tariffs.
4.1 - International economics
What is it called when countries impose escalating tariffs on each other?
A ‘tit for tat’ trade war.
4.1 - International economics
Show the increase in producer surplus on a tariff diagram:
However, there is net welfare loss overall, represented by blue boxes.
4.1 - International economics
Reasons for Restrictions on Free Trade (Protectionism)
- Infant industries - To protect new firms that would be unlikely to succeed at start-up due to the level of global competition. Once established support is removed
- Sunset industries - At the end of the life cycle, these firms are on their way out & the government chooses to support them to help limit the economic damage that would occur if they closed abruptly
- Strategic industries - Industries such as energy, defense & agriculture are essential to self-sufficiency & security. Being reliant on other countries for these creates vulnerabilities for a nation
- Dumping - Dumping is anti-competitive & can harm a country’s industries. Excess output is sold in another country below costs (illegal) or below normal prices in the home market
- Employment - helps fix structural unemployment and offshoring
- Current Account deficit - When imports > exports the amount of money leaving the country to support foreign firms is greater than that entering to support domestic firms. Protectionism aims to correct this imbalance
- Raise tax revenues to lower budget deficit - Important for countries that are developing as they have a limited domestic tax base
4.1 - International economics
What will the effect of this quota be?
Outward shift in domestic supply to Q3. Higher prices due to relative shortage.
4.1 - International economics
How do quotas raise prices?
They create a relative shortage, total output falls:
4.1 - International economics
Give the diagram that shows welfare loss from quotas:
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on domestic producers
- Before the tariff domestic producers produced output equal to Q1 & their revenue was equal to Pw x Q1
- After the tariff was imposed domestic producers produced Q3 & their revenue was equal to Pw X Q3
- Domestic producer surplus has increased by area 2
- Over-reliance on protectionist policies can lead to ineffieinces
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on domestic consumers
- Before the tariff domestic consumers consumed Q2 products at a price of Pw
- After the tariff domestic consumers consumed fewer products (Q4) at a higher price of Pw+tariff
- Domestic consumer surplus has decreased by areas 1, 2, 3 & 4
- Domestic industries become more competitive and so may get better products
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on the government
- After the tariff is imposed the government receives tax revenue equal to ((Pw+tariff) - Pw) x (Q4-Q3) - area 3
- Protectionist policies may strain diplomatic relations and lead to retaliation by trading partners.
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on living standards
- The standards of living for consumers worsen as the value of their income is eroded as they are paying higher prices
- Domestic firms who benefit from increased production may increase employees’ wages
——-> This would increase the standard of living for employees
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of tarrifs/protectionist policy on equality
- Workers in industries that have been experiencing structural unemployment due to foreign competition will feel that the tariff results in them being treated more fairly
- Protectionism can exacerbate income inequality if it benefits specific industries or groups while imposing costs on others.
- It may also affect global income distribution by limiting opportunities for developing countries to export.
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What are 3 different types of quotas
- Absolute quota – A simple physical limit either a volume or a value
- Tariff rate quota – These allow a certain number of imports to gain a discount on the usual tariff rate
- Voluntary export restraints (VER) – This is when a government limits the amount of exports from one country to another for a particular type of good.
4.1 - International economics
Quotas vs Tariffs
- Quotas tend to cause a bigger fall in economic welfare because the government don’t gain any tax revenue, that you get with tariffs.
- Quotas allow the country to be certain on the number of imports coming in. Tariffs is more unknown because it depends on the elasticity of demand and how consumers and suppliers react to the tariff. Tariffs depend on the market
- Quotas may be harder to enforce if it is difficult to count the amount of the good coming into the country.
- Quotas could be more unfair. Some export firms may do well if they get the quota allowance, but others may lose out. It becomes a political issue on how to distribute the quotas. Firms may also dislike the uncertainty of not knowing how many quotes to gain. Could be more corruption with quotas, so puts politicians are put under pressure.
4.1 - International economics
What are subsidies to domestic producers?
Payments to domestic producers which lower their costs.
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on domestic producers
- Decreases costs of production
- Increases output
- Increases international competitiveness
- Higher revenues will lift profits and possible lead to higher share price. More output could lead to economies of scale
Evaluation:
Risk of dependency, removes the incentive to be more competitive by innovation, increasing efficiency and productivity
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on consumers
The subsidy may not be large enough to change the world price. So won’t affect them
But could lower the overall price
Eval
Facing higher taxes if the subsidy is expensive
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What is the impact of subsidies to the government
Can be an effective non-tariff barrier to reduce the volume of imports by encouraging domestic production
Eval:
Doesn’t generate tax revenue. More spending can increase budget deficit. Opportunity cost
4.1 - International economics
Evaluation of the impact of protectionism
- Risk of Retaliation and a possible trade war
- Market Distortions
- Higher prices for consumers
- Regressive effect on income inequality
- Incentives to by-pass controls in shadow markets
- Higher costs for exporters
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of Quotas on Domestic Producers
- Increases their output
- Raises the selling price
- Increases their revenue
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas on foreign producers
- Decreases their output
* Compared to a tariff, those firms who manage to export in the quota receive a higher price for their sales
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of a quota on consumers
Results in higher prices & less choice
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas to the government
- They do not receive any tariff revenue (as there is no tariff)
- They may receive higher tax revenue at the end of the financial year when domestic firms pay their corporation tax.
- More employment so more taxes that way and also achieve some objective of low unemployment
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas on standard of living
Reduces for consumers as higher prices erode the purchasing power of their income
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas on equality
Improves for domestic firms but worsens for foreign firms
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on foreign producers
Makes it harder for them to compete with domestic firms
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on standards of living
Improves for consumers as they benefit from lower prices - their income goes further
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on equality
Domestic firms can compete more equally
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on domestic producers
- Limits foreign competition
- Protects levels of outputs
- May increase selling price & revenue
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on foreign producers
- Acts as a disincentive to sell into foreign markets
* Costs of meeting the non-tariff barriers may significantly reduce profit margins
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on consumers
May reduce choice/variety in a market
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What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on the government
- They may lose some credibility with the WTO
- Enforcing the non-tariff barriers may be difficult or expensive
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What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on standards of living
- Less choice & higher prices erode standards of living
- Product labelling information may improve decision making & quality of life
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on equality
May help improve equality e.g. environmental standards help create equal production inputs which results in equality in the costs of production
4.1 - International economics
What is the definition of balance of payments?
The sum total of a country’s income and expenditure on foreign trade
together with all its international capital movements
It’s split into two sections…..
Current account
Capital & financial account
Always = 0
4.1 - International economics
What is the Current Account of the Balance of Payments? (TTIT)
- (Balance of) trade in goods
- (Balance of) trade in services
- (Net) income flows from abroad
- (Net international) transfer payments.
4.1 - International economics
What does the current account of the balance of payments refer to?
How much is spent on imports vs the total value of exports
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Relative to the balance of payments, what are: Exports? Imports?
X = Positive
M = Negative
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What is the balance of payments (BoP) made up of?
- Current account
- Financial account
- Capital account
- Balancing items
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How does a floating exchange rate affect the balance of payments?
Ensures BoP is always 0.
S for currency = D for currency.
(E.g. CA deficit can be compensated for by FA surplus).
4.1 - International economics
What are the factors affecting the balance of payments? (RISE)
Rate of consumer spending on imports AKA Marginal propensity to import. (↑M ↓BoP).
International competitiveness.
Structure of the economy. (De-industrialisation can harm export sector; e.g. Italy).
Exchange rate. (Can influence export value).
4.1 - International economics
What are the causes of a current account deficit
- Relatively low productivity
- Relatively high value of a countrys currency
- Relatively high rate of inflation
- Rapid economic growth resulting in increased imports
- Non-price factors such as poor quality and design
- Poor Price
- Recession
- Volatile global prices
- Government policy
4.1 - International economics
How does relatively low productivity cause a current account deficit
- Low productivity raises costs
- Exporting firms with low productivity may find themselves at a price and cost disadvantage in overseas markets which will decrease competitiveness and the level of exports
- With higher domestic prices, consumers may also buy abroad thus increasing the imports
- Falling exports and rising imports creates a deficit
4.1 - International economics
How does relatively high value of the country’s currency cause a current account deficit
- Currency appreciation makes a country’s exports more expensive relative to other nations
- Foreign buyers look for substitute products which are priced lower
- Exports fall and the balance on the current account worsens
- Similarly, currency appreciation makes imports cheaper
- Domestic consumers may switch demand to foreign goods and as imports rise, the balance on the current account worsens
4.1 - International economics
How does relatively high rate of inflation cause a current account deficit
- A relatively high rate of inflation makes a country’s exports more expensive than other nations
- Foreign buyers look for substitute products which are priced lower
- Exports fall and the balance on the current account worsens
- Similarly, high inflation may mean that goods/services are cheaper in other countries
- Domestic consumers may switch demand to foreign goods and as imports rise, the balance on the current account worsens
4.1 - International economics
How does rapid economic growth resulting in increased imports
- Rapid economic growth raises household income
- Households respond by purchasing goods/services with a high-income elasticity of demand (income elastic)
- Many of these goods are imported and as imports rise, the balance on the current account worsens
4.1 - International economics
How does non-price factors such as poor quality and design cause a current account deficit
- When a country develops a reputation for poor quality and design, its exports fall as foreign buyers look for better substitutes elsewhere
- Domestic buyers who are able to shop abroad also choose to buy better quality products elsewhere and the level of imports rise
- A fall in exports and a rise in imports worsens the balance on the current account
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems with having a large balance of payments deficit?
- Signals a long term loss of competitiveness
- May mean higher unemployement
- Withdrawl from circular flow, drag on aggregate demand
- May create imported inflation
- Leads to a falling exchange rate - higher import costs.
- Fall in GDP
- Withdrawl from circular flow
4.1 - International economics
Why might having a balance of payments deficit not be so bad
- Depends on the size of the deficit and how long it persists
* Might be cyclical - Depends on what the imports are - capital goods and investment will improve future growth prospects.
- Depends on if the exchange rate is fixed or floating, In a floating system, the balance of payments deficit should be self correcting
- Might be financed by a surplus on the financial account
4.1 - International economics
Causes of a current account surplus
- Competitive economy - High productivity, investment, training, quality
- Low inflation
- Low exchange rate
- Vast natural resource - Kuwait, UAE
- Trade cycle
- Government policies - competitive supply side policies
- Surplus of savings over investment
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems of having a large balance of payments surplus?
- Retaliation - Countries with large deficits might retaliate by putting up barriers to trade to reduce imports - American withdrawl from NAFTA
- Resources are focused on producing to meet export demand rather than export demand, so lower consumer living standards
- Rise in the exchange rate - makes exports more uncompetitive in the long run.
- Inflation - high demand for exports could create inflation.
4.1 - International economics
What are the 4 options the government has to try and reduce current account deficits
- Do nothing and leave it to market foces in Forex market to self-correct deficit
- Use expenditure switching policies - change relative prices of exports and imports
- Use expenditure reducing policies - lower real incomes and AD - cutting demand for improts but causes unemployment
- Use supply-side policies
4.1 - International economics
If a country has a current account deficit, it must have a surplus on the other elements of the balance of payments. Why is this?
- This is because it has to pay for everything it consumes and funds in some way - to fund a current account deficit, a country must be selling assets to foreign investors.
- It is debatable whether this is sutainable in the long run since, if people invest in a country, at some point they will require a return on their investment, and this will cause a deficit on the financial account
4.1 - International economics
Examples of expenditure switching policies
- Depreciation of the exchange rate - Reduces relative price of exportds & make imports more expensiive - BUT risk of cost push inflation - which erodes competitive boost + fall in incomes
- Import tariffs - Increases the price of imports & makes domestic output more price competitive - BUT risk of retaliation from other countries if import tariffs are used as BoP policy
- Low rate of inlfation (perhaps deflation) - Keeps general price level under control and makes exports more competitive - BUT risks from deflation as a way of achieviing intenal develuation - including lower investment
4.1 - International economics
Examples of expenditure reducing policy
- Increase in income taxes - Reduces real disposable incomes causing falling demand for imports - BUT cut in living standards and risk of damage to work incentives in labour markets
- Cuts in real levels of government spending - Lower aggreagate demand, firms may look to export their spare capacity - BUT damage to short term economic growth, risks that austerity hits investment
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems with persistent deficits
Means finaince from abroad (in form of loans or foreign direct investment) is required in order to fund continued imports
- This may mean that a country is gradually selling its assets
- Owing money to a foreign entity creates vulnerabilites
* 2008 GFC - Greece owend creditors significant sums and was required to pay these back making numerous problems their economy. Creditors insisting on being paid back quickly - Run up large external debts and then relying on foreign capital
- May switch towards protectionist policies
- Can lead to fall in relative living standards if economoc growth slows down
4.1 - International economics
What is the problems with persistner surpluses of trade
Focus of allocation of resources is on meeting foreign demand as opposed to meeting domestic demand
- This can limit availabilty of goods/services in the local economy which can possibly decrease the standard of living for some households
- It can also create instabiloty in the forex maket if there is a floating exchange rate
- Saving more than they spedn
- May adopt a policy of delibrately under-valuing the currency
- May be under-consuming (affecting living conditions)
4.1 - International economics
Exam tip for global trade imbalances
major issue with trade imbalances is that it strengthens those who want to move away from free trade. Large trade imbalances leading to rise of de-globalisation – creating trade tensions –> tariff and non-tariff barriers
4.1 - International economics
What is the Marshall-Lerner condition?
A net improvement in trade will only occur if (PED X + PED M) is more than 1.
(Good evaluation to the J-Curve).
4.1 - International economics
What does the J curve show?
Short term negative effect (of devaluation as demand inelastic).
Long term positive effect (of devaluation as demand becomes more price elastic).
REGARDING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT.
4.1 - International economics
What is the short term effect of depreciation
- In the short-term, a fall in the price of exports will only cause a smaller percentage rise in quantity demanded.
- A rise in the price imports will cause a smaller percentage fall in demand for imports. Therefore, the value of imports actually rises (we spend more on imports)
- Therefore, if demand is inelastic, following a depreciation, we actually get a worsening of the current account account
4.1 - International economics
What are the long term effects of a depreciation
In the long-term, demand for exports and imports will tend to become more price elastic. (more sensitive to price)
- Therefore, a fall in the price of exports will cause a bigger percentage rise in quantity demand. (And therefore we get a bigger rise in the value of exports) When demand is elastic, the value of exports rises – and we get an improvement in the current account position.
- Also, if demand for imports is price elastic, then there will be a bigger percentage fall in demand for imports. In this case, the total spending on imports starts to fall.
4.1 - International economics
Why is demand more price elastic in the long-term
J-curve
- In the short-term, firms and consumers may have contracts to keep buying the good.
- It takes time to find alternatives.
- The higher price of imports will be an incentive for domestic firms to increase production, but this takes time
- Elasticity and time
4.1 - International economics
Evaluation of the J-curve effect
- The current account will depend on consumer spending and the rate of economic growth.
- It also depends on consumer spending in foreign countries (hence demand for exports)
- It depends on Inflation (e.g. depreciation can cause imported inflation which reduces the competitiveness of exports)
- Firms may engage in insurance policies to hedge against exchange rate movements.
4.1 - International economics
Chain of analysis for a depreciation due to current account deficit
- Depreciation due to current account deficit
- WIDEC
- Imports should ↓, Exports should ↑
- So C.A deficit should imprive
- BUTTT
- Elastics of D+S, contracts have been signed so
- Short term, imports might not reduce, exports might not imprive
- So CA deficit gets worse before it gets better
4.1 - International economics
What is effective exchange rate
This is a weighted index of sterling’s value against a basket of currencies where the weights are based on the importance/share of trade between the UK and each country
4.1 - International economics
What is a free floating exchange rate
- External value is set by market forces
- No intervention by central bank
- No target for the exchange rate
4.1 - International economics
Factors causing changes in a floating exchange rate system
- Trade/current account balances – strong trade and CA surplus see currencies appreciate as money flows into circular flow by exports and inflows of investment
- Foreign direct investment – more FDI means increase in currency demand and so rising exchange rate
- Portfolio investment – strong inflows of investment into equities and bonds from overseas sees currency appreciation
- Interest rate differentials – hot money
Chain of reasoning - the impact of higher interest rates on a floating exchange rate
- Rise in policy interest rates by central bank
- Currency more attractive for investors
- Attracts inflows of short term hot money
- Causes outwarad shift in currency demand
- Currency appreaciates in value in floating system
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning - the effect of a fall in export demadn on a floating exchange rate
- Recession in a trading partner
- Causes a fall in export sales
- Worsening of trade balance
- Inward shift of currency demand
- Currency will depreacite
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning - decrease in FDI
Decrease in investment from overseas will mean a decrease in demand for pounds and a depreciation of currency
4.1 - International economics
What is managed floating exchange rate
Combination of fixed & floating mechanism. Central bank determines prefered currency value and thn lets the currency flucturate within a certain range of the preferred value. If it goes outisde the range then the cenral bank will intervene
4.1 - International economics
How can exchange rates be changed
-
Chanes in monetary policy interest rates
- Changes in interst rates - lower interst will depreciate the exchange rate
- Causes movments of “hot money” in and out of country
-
Quantitative easing
- Increas liquiduty in banking system, causes an outflow of money leading to depreaciation of ER
- Direct buying/selling in the currency market (intervention)
-
Taxation of overseas currency deposits and capital controls
- Taxation of foreign deposits in banks cuts profts from hot money inflows
- Gov could introdeuce control of the free flow of capital in and out of a country
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning: How can a central bank influence the value of a currency
- In a managed floating currrency system, one way that a central bank can influecne the external value is by changing interest rates
- For example, if they want to achieve a depreciation, they might opt to lower their main monetary policy interest rate
- A fall in interest rates reduces the returns on overseas money held in a country’s banking system. The real reutnr may become negative
- As a result, lower interest rates might cause an outflow of short-term “hot money” from commercial banks to other countries
- This will cause an outward shift of the supply curve for the currency as investors look for currencies with higher expected returns
- In this way, assuming other central banks have kept their rates constant, a fall in interest rates might lead to a depreciation
4.1 - International economics
What is competitive devaluation
When a country deliberatelt intervenes to drive down the value of the currency to provide a competitive lift to aggregate demand, output and jobs in their export industries. Countries with persitent trade deficits and rising unemployments this could be an attractive option
4.1 - International economics
What are the risks of competitive devaluation
- Can be seen as a form of trade protection so inveites retaliatory action
- Goes against princples of trade based on comparitive advantage
- Cutting the exchange rate makes it harder for other countries to export, negativelt affecting their growth rate which in turn can damage the volume of trade that takes place between nations
4.1 - International economics
What is a fixed exchange rate
The central bank negotiates with the IMF to fix (peg) their currency to another one
Could be party so - 1 Brunei dollar = 1 Singapore dollar
Often not party so - 7.75 Hong kong dollars = 1 US$
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Revaluations and devaluations for a fixed currency
- A revaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg and increase the strength of its currency
- A devaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg and decrease the strength of its currency
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning: How might a currency depreciation affect international competitivenss
- A depreciation is a fall in the external value of a currency inside a floating exchange rate system
- Consider for example a deprecation of the UK £ agaisnt the Euro. The £ might fall from Euro 1.50 to Euro 1.20, a drop of 20%
- As a result exporters can reduce the foreign price of goods and services sold overseas
- This makes UK exports relatively cheaper in overseas markets. Relative export prices fall leading to improved competitveness
- In addition, the UK price of imported products will increase £1 buys fewer euros. For example, imported cars will be more expensive
- A rise in import prices will make domestic producers in the UK appear relatively more competitive purely in cost and price terms
4.1 - International economics
How is the current account affected by changes in exchange rates
- Depreciation of the £ causes exports to be cheaper for foreigners to buy & imports to the UK are more expensive
- The extent to which this improves the current account balance depends on the Marshall-Lerner condition
- This follows the revenue rule which states that in order to increase revenue, firms should lower prices for products that are price elastic in demand
- If the combined elasticity of exports/imports is less than 1 (inelastic), a depreciation (fall in price) will actually worsen the current account balance
- It is also important to recognize that there is a time lag between the depreciation of the £ and any subsequent improvement in the current account balance
- This is explained by the J-Curve effect
- It takes time for firms & consumers to respond to changes in price
- Once it becomes evident that price changes will last for a longer period of time, firms & consumers switch
- E.g. a firm in the USA has been importing electric scooters from the UK. If the Euro depreciates, the price of scooters in France becomes relatively cheaper. In the short-term, the USA firm will not switch immediately to purchasing scooters from France as the exchange rate may soon bounce back. They also have a good relationship with their UK suppliers. In the long term they are likely to switch
- This is explained by the J-Curve effect
4.1 - International economics
How is economic growth affected by changes in exchange rates
- Net exports are a component of aggregate demand (AD)
- A depreciation that results in an increase in net exports will lead to economic growth
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How is inflation affected by changes in exchange rates
- Cost push inflation is likely to occur as the price of imported raw materials increases with currency depreciation
- Net exports are a component of aggregate demand (AD)
- A depreciation that results in an increase in net exports will lead to an increase in aggregate demand
- This may lead to an increase in demand pull inflation
- Could be a stimulus to GDP growth
- An appreciation of the currency will have the opposite effect
4.1 - International economics
How is unemployment affected by changes in exchange rates
- If depreciation leads to an increase in exports, unemployment is likely to fall as more workers are required to produce the additional products demanded
- An appreciation of the currency will have the opposite effect so decrease in exports, unemployment rises as less is produced
How are living standards affected by changes in exchange rates
- The impact of a depreciation on living standards can be muted
- As imports are more expensive, households face higher prices & less choice, which detracts from living standards
- Rising exports can decrease unemployment & increase wages/income which means an improved standard of living for some households
- The impact of an appreciation on living standards will be the opposite
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How is foreign direct investment (FDI) affected by changes in exchange rates
- Depreciation of a currency makes it cheaper for foreign firms to invest in the country and can increase the FDI
- The money they have available to invest is worth more when the currency has depreciated
- An appreciation has the opposite effect
4.1 - International economics
How does foreign demand for exports/domestic demand for imports change the supply and demand for a currency
- When consumers from your country want to buy products form another, they will first have to sell your country’s currency in exchange for the other country’s currency before they can buy the product
- This means dmenad for the other country increases, and that the supply of your currency increases
4.1 - International economics
How does foreign direct investment change supply and demand for a currency
- FDI refers to international firms investing abroad, usually into factories to decrease costs of production
- Inward FDI means a firm invests into your economy (money goes in). More demadn for domestic currency
- Outward FDI means a domestic firm invests in another ecnomy (money goes out). More supply of domestic currency
4.1 - International economics
How does Portfolio investment change supply and demand for a currency
- Some people/firms/governments may purchase financial investments from abroad. This includes stocks, options and bonds
- Inward investment means someone from abroad wants to purchase investments in your country (money goes in). More demand for domestic currency
- Outward investment means someone from your country wants to purchase investments abroad (money goes out). More supply of domestic currency
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How does remittances change supply and demand for a currency
- Remittances refers to money sent from people working abroad sending their money back to their home country
- More demand for the home currency, while more supply of the original currency
4.1 - International economics
How does speculation cause changes in supply and demand for a currency
- Speculation here refers the purchasing of a currency in hope that its value will increase
- More demand for investment currency, while more supply of the original currency
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How does relative inflation rates cause changes in supply and demand for a currency
- High inflation rates will make the country’s exports less competitve, which will reduce exports, which in turn reduces the demand for the country’s currency
- Additionally, if inflation is hurting a currency, investors may sell this currency in exchange for a more stable one
- More demand for stable currency, while more supply of the inflationary currency
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How does relative growth rates cause changes in supply and demand for a currency
- High economic growth -> inflation -> central banks increases interest rates -> investors see high returns on bank depoists -> more money is put into local banks
- High economic growth -> more confidence in the economy -> more investment from other countrys
- More demand for high growth economy’s currency, while more supply of the original currency. Here, we assume the economic growth would increase the inflation rate
A counter point
- High economic growth -> more net imports from other countries as demand outweights supply
- More demand for other foreign currencies, while more supply of the high growth economy’s currency
4.1 - International economics
What does more demand for a currency look like on a diagram
4.1 - International economics
What does more supply of a currency look like on a diagram
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What does depreciation of exchange rate depend on
- Time lags
- Size of change
- Is change permanent
- Coefficients of PED for exports and imports (marshall-lerner condition)
- Size of any second round multiperler and accelerator effects
- The type of economy (differnet for developing and develped countries)
- Degree of openness of the economy to international trade (measured by value of trade as a % of GDP)
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Advantages of floating exchange rate systems
- Reduces the need for a central bank to hold large amounts of currency reserves
- Freedom to set monetary policy interest rates to meet domestic objectives
- May help to prevent imported inflation
- Insulation for an economy aftern an external shock especially for export-dependent countries
- Partial automatic correction for a current account/trade deficit
- Less risk of a currency becoming significantly over/undervalued
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantges of floating exchange rates
- No guarantee that floating exchange rate will be stable
- Volatility in a floating currency might be detrimental to attracting inward investment
- A lower (more competitive) exchange rate does not necessarily correct a persistent current account deficit - consider the J curve theory and the importance of non-price competitiveness
AD-AS analysis of likely impact of an exchange rate appreciation
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of fixed exchange rates
- Certainty of currency value gives confidence of inward investment from overseas businesses
- reduced need to engage in and costs of “currency hedging” for businesses such as airlines
- Currency stability helps to control inflation - i.e. it is a discipline on businesses to keep labour costs low
- A stable currency can lead to lower borrowing costs (i.e lower yields on government bonds)
- Imposes responsibility on government macro poliices e.g. to keep inflation under control
- Less speculation in the curency market if the fixed exchange rate is regarded by traders as credible
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantages of fixed exchange rates
- Reduced freedom to use interest rates for other macro objectives such as stimulating GDP growth
- Many developing countries do not have sufficiently large foreign currency reserves to be able to maintain a fixed exchange rate over some time
- Difficult for countries to use a competitive devaluation of their fixed exchange rate - creates political tensions and possible retaliation
- Devaluation of a fixed exchange rate can lead to a surge in cost-push inflation - this is damaging to competitiveness and has regressive impacts on poor families
4.1 - International economics
Fixed vs Floating
- Fixed rates may be optimal for developing countries wanting to control inflation
- Export-dependent economies may favour a managed floating rate e.g. to offset fluctuating world prices
- Not every country has the scale of foreign currency reserves needed to influence the price of a currency
- The choice of currency regime is hugely important for developing and emerging countries. Some have opted to join a monetary union e.g. the 19 members of the Euro Zone
4.1 - International economics
What is the definition of international competitiveness?
- The competitiveness of a country’s exports abroad and its ability to compete with imports at home
- Depends on price and non price factors such as quality, reliability and brand name
4.1 - International economics
Aspects of non-price competitiveness
- Product quality
- Innovation
- Reliability
- Performance
- Marketing
- Brand loyalty
- After sale services
- Branding
What are some non-wage cost factors for businesses operating in international markets
- Environmental taxes - costs for carbon emissions
- Employment protection laws and health & safety regulations
- Statuatory requirements - pensions
- Employment taxes - employers national insurance - increased in 2024 autumn budget
4.1 - International economics
What are the 3 measures of international competitiveness?
The main measures are
- Relative unit labour costs
- Relative export prices
- Quality
Others
- Productivity
- Unit costs
- Levels of investment
- R&D expenditure
- Training and education
4.1 - International economics
What is relative unit labour costs and what are they determined by mainly
Total labour costs/ouput
Determined by
- Average wages/salaries
- Labour productivity
4.1 - International economics
When will relative unit labour costs rise
- A country’s exchange rate appreciates
- Wages costs rises relatively faster than other nations
- Labour productivity growth is relatively slower
4.1 - International economics
Ways to reduce relative unit labour costs
- Monetary policy interventions aimed at a currency depreciation e.g. a managed floating exchange rate
- Wage controls e.g. wage/pay freezes for people working in the public (state) sector
- Supply-side measures designed to raise labor productivity/efficiency across many industries
4.1 - International economics
What are relative export prices?
The price of the UK’s exports compared to the exports of the UK’s main trading partners.
(High relative export prices is bad for competitiveness).
4.1 - International economics
When do export prices rise
- An appreciation of the currency - export price rise in overseas markets
- A period of high relative inflation
- Export businesses experience higher costs e.g. higher minimum wages - prices rise to protect profits so inflation
- When exports are hit by import tariffs
What are the factors affecting international competitiveness? FEEDDOPRIFT
- FoP.
- Exchange rates.
- Economic stability.
- Domestic demand.
- Domestic competition.
- Openness to trade.
- Productivity.
- Regulation.
- Inflation / Investment.
- Finance (access to).
- Taxation.
4.1 - International economics
Policies to improve competitiveness
- Competitive exchange rate – maybe moving to a managed floating currency
- Competitive tax environment – attract inward investment and encourage new business to set up
- Investment in human capital – improves quality of the workforce – more funding for higher education
- Increase r&d – drive faster pace of innovation – r&d tax credits
- Stronger market competition to raise factor productivity and lower relative export prices
- Stable macroeconomic environment – low inflation and steady economic growth –> business confidence and investment
- Investment in critical infrastructure – better road, air and rail links, improved darts, faster broadband
4.1 - International economics
What fiscal polices can be used to increase competitivness
- Subsides – lower cost of research e.g. pharmaceuticals
- Tax incentives – can encourage different aspects
- Lower employment taxes – stimulate skilled migration from overseas
- Lower capital gains taxes – encourage small businesses to set up
- Special economic zones – attract research-intensive businesses
4.1 - International economics
What is important for international competitiveness in the long run
- Macro competitiveness has important micro foundations – businesses drives it, gov is there to regulate a little
- Competitive markets and innovative business
- Skills, aptitudes, and attitudes within a diverse workforce
- Competitive advantage comes from having
- Globally scaled businesses close to or at technological frontier
- Culture of innovative businesses start-ups
- A financial system that can support it all
- Reliance on currency depreciation/devaluation and wage cost is not a sustainable competitiveness strategy
- The most competitive countries tend to have the highest minimum wages
- There is a continuous global battle for the most talented, highly skilled workers
- “races to the bottom” e.g. in tax rates and wages have a limited impact in the long run
4.1 - International economics
What is internal devaluation
A strategy to boost price competitiveness by reducing wage costs and raising productivity without currency devaluation. Achieved via fiscal austerity (tax hikes, spending cuts) and/or higher real interest rates, causing deflationary pressure. Common in fixed-exchange-rate countries (e.g., Ecuador, Eurozone members like Greece) and requires years of low relative inflation/deflation. Examples: Latvia, Greece, Ecuador post-financial crises.
4.1 - International economics
What is external devaluation
A deliberate reduction in a country’s currency value (under a fixed/semi-fixed exchange rate) to boost export competitiveness and raise import costs. Goals include shrinking trade deficits and lowering the real value of sovereign debt. Faster than internal devaluation. Examples: Egypt (16% devaluation in 2016) and Ghana (17% in 2019).
4.1 - International economics
Risks from an internal devaluation
- Severe loss of output and rising unemployment
- Fall in nominal wages reduces living standards
- Risks from sustained price deflation
- Real value of debt increases
- Danger of a country suffering a permant loss of output (known as “hystersis”)
4.1 - International economics
Drawbacks from an external devaluation
- Increase in cost-push inflation from higher import prices
- Reduces real income because of a rise in inflation
- No guarantee that the trade deficit will improve (refer to the J-curve concept)
- Foreign creditors will demand higher interest rates on new issues of government and corporate debt
- Currency uncertainty makes country less attractive to inward FDI
4.1 - International economics
Benefits of being international competitiveness
- Improved living standards e.g. measured by real GNI per capita (PPP)
- Stronger trade performance from an increase in export sales
- Virtuous circle of economic growth
- Employment creation
- Higher government tax revenues as incomes and profits increase
4.1 - International economics
Problems with being international competitive
- Trade surpluses might invite a protectionist response
- Possible risks of demand-pull inflation
- Competitiveness might be achieved at the expense of growing inequality of income and wealth
- Higher productivity might be achived at expense of a worsening work-life balance and increased incidence of mental health problems
- Increased competitiveness might cause a country’s exchange rate to appreciate
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What does the difference between HDI and IHDI represent?
The ‘loss’ in potential human development because of poverty.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is absolute poverty
When a household does not have sufficient income to sustain even a basic acceptable standard of living to meet peoples basic needs
Is a multi-dimensional about more than very low income per capita
World bank - less than $2.15 a day
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is relative poverty
- Income compared to other people - those living below a certain threshold income.
- In the UK and the EU, a household is in relative poverty if they are living in a household with income below 60% of median household income.
- Poverty line for a single working age adult is £141 a week.
- Around 1/5 of people in the UK live in relative poverty.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
Causes of Absolute Poverty
- Population growing faster than GDP in low income countries leading to lower per capita incomes
- A severe household savings gap – many families unable to save and living on less than $1.90 per day – poverty trap
- Absence of basic government/public services such as education and universal care, welfare system
- Effects of endemic corruption in government and business
- High levels of debt and having to pay high interest rates on loan
- Damaging effects of civil war and natural disasters both lead to huge displacements of population
- Low rate of formal employment - people in insecure jobs with poverty wages
- Absence of basic property rights, lack of which may constrain ability to own land
The causes are often complex and multi-causal
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
Causes of Relative Poverty
- Cuts in top rate income taxes, the wealthy get wealthier
- Surging executive pay and high rewards for skilled workers compared to other employees
- Regressive effects of higher food and energy prices on poorer households
- Deep market failures in access and affordability of good quality education, health & basic housing
- Declining strength of trade unions in many countries and the rising monopsony power of some big employers
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is the UN’s Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI), and what key insights does it provide?
The Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measures poverty beyond income by assessing deprivations across 10 indicators in health (child mortality), education (years of schooling), and standard of living (Access to drinking water). Key findings (2019):
* 23% of people (1.3 billion) in 101 countries lived in multidimensional poverty.
* Two-thirds of these individuals reside in middle-income countries.
* Over half are under 18, highlighting youth vulnerability.
The MPI evaluates progress against sustainable development goals to reduce severe deprivation in emerging and developing nations.
Why does Piketty argued more eco. development eventually increases inequality?
Due to the higher rate of return on capital.
(Rich get richer e.g. can mortgage more houses to rent out).
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is the Lorenz curve?
A visual indicator of inequality in an economy.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is the Gini coefficient calculated?
Gini Coefficient = Area of A / Area of A + Area of B.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What Gini coefficient value represents perfect equality? Perfect inequality?
0
1 or 100
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What are the two types of lorenz curves?
Income inequality
Wealth inequality
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What are the two types of lorenz curves?
% of income = y
% of population = x
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is the Gini coefficient?
A numerical indicator of wealth and income distribution and inequality.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
Draw a lorenz curve showing a reduction in inequality:
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What are cause of inequality within countries
- Education, training and skills
- Trade unions
- Benefit system
- Pension payments
- Wage rates
- Employment Legislation
- Tax Structure
- Asset Ownership
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is Education, Training and Skills a cause of inequality within countries
- The higher the skill level the higher the level of income.
- A country with a poor education system will see greater inequality than one with a good education system
- Education being a barrier to entry to a job
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is Trade Unions a cause of inequality within countries
- Countries with strong trade union membership tend to have higher levels of income.
- With low trade union membership, the exploitation of workers through low wages is easier
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is a benefit system a cause of inequality within a country
Countries that provide a range of benefits (such as unemployment, disability, child support, housing support etc) raise the income of the lowest 20% of the population resulting in more equal distribution
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is pension payments a cause of inequality within a country
- State pension payments ensure a minimum standard of living for retirees resulting in a more equal distribution of income.
- Countries without it have a much higher percentage of pensioners living in poverty
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is wage rates a cause of inequality within a country
- The purpose of a national minimum wage is to improve the equity in the distribution of income.
- Without it, more households would be earning less and inequality would increase
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is employment legislation a cause of inequality within a country
Generally, the more workers are protected by law, the better the income distribution in an economy e.g. maternity benefits ensure that new mothers have a higher level of income during the first months of leave after a birth
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is tax structure a cause of inequality within countries
- Progressive tax systems allow all income earners to contribute to public revenue according to their ability.
- Decreasing taxes on the lower end and increasing it on the upper end would mean that the system is more progressive and there would be a more equal distribution of income
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
How is asset ownership a cause of inequality within countries
- Assets generate income.
- The more equal the asset ownership in an economy the less the inequality in income distribution.
- This was one reason why the UK government changed the law in 1980 allowing council house tenants the right to buy their property at a discounted rate.
- It is also a reason for the current shared ownership scheme
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
Causes of inequality between countries
- Low life expectancy and fewer years of healthy life expectancy
- Low school enrollment rates – families can’t afford it – widens gender opportunity gap
- Low access to basic health care and poor nutrition - impairs brain development among young people
- Vulnerability to loan sharks/access to credit
- Limited access to affordable technology – digital divide – been decreasing, more smartphone use
- Much lower productivity which then leads to lower wages
- Low real spending power limits the size of domestic markets for goods and services
- Low prices for primary commodities – small farmers have little to no bargaining power
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is the Kuznets hypothesis?
Inequality increases as an economy develops and moves from agriculture to industry.
Then it improves through rebalancing (by the govt.). + inequality falls.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
Give the Kuznet hypothesis curve:
Inequality against economic growth
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What is the evaluation to Kuznet’s hypothesis?
Piketty theory
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What are the consequences of poverty and inequality in developing countries?
- Low savings ratio – this affects firms ability to invest and expand.
- Balance of payments problems – those people on high incomes in the cities may spend it on large volumes of imports because they have a Westernised life style. This in turn can lead to a balance of payments deficit.
- Lack of entrepreneurship – the poor will have no capital to start their own business and better themselves because their incomes are not high enough to save.
- Absolute poverty could remain high – because of a lack of spending power in the economy and the lack of job creation. Also tax revenues are low, so there is no money to provide merit goods like education and health or develop infrastructure.
- Capital flight – in developing countries the very wealthy may transfer their assets to ‘safe havens’ (see section 14.5)
- Social problems – crime, political instability.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
- Capitalism creates inequality because it requires incentives for it to work - e.g. entrepreneur = profit; workers = wages
- Entrepreneur & workers rewarded according to risk, productivity and ability - But capitalism not just about creating inequality…
- Wealth, tax revenue and jobs it creates has lifted living standards for all and millions out of poverty - Relative poverty still a problem in developed countries
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
To what extent is high income and consumption inequality an inevitable consequences of operating a capitalist system
- The profit motive - Businesses are assumed to be driven by the profit motive when making investment, output and employment decisions. Inequality can widen through flow of dividends to shareholders.
- However, even in capitalist system people are motivated to run their businesses as a social enterprise – profits reinvested for social/environmental purposes
- The government can tax high profits and incomes through a progressive tax system so that the final distribution is less unequal than original income
- The government can tax high profits and incomes through a progressive tax system, to help improve final distribution of income
- Competition policy and intervention by industry regulators can help control monopoly profits and keep real prices down for consumers
- A capitalist labour market: In competitive labour markets, wages and earnings are influenced by the forces of labour demand and labour supply. In theory there are few limits to pay that can be achieved by the top earners including those with scarce skills that the market values and executives who have the power to set their own wages, bonuses, share options. At the lower end, the majority of people earning low wages are not represented by a trade union and have little bargaining power
- However – there are many possible interventions in labour markets that can alter the final distribution of income and help control inequality
- Minimum wage legislation
- Legal caps on executive pay
- Legal protection for employees such as in flexible jobs associated with the gig economy
- Government investment in human capital promoting skills and employability of vulnerable groups of society can increase earnings potential
- However – there are many possible interventions in labour markets that can alter the final distribution of income and help control inequality
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
What did piketty argue
Thomas Piketty’s core argument is that capitalism naturally leads to rising wealth inequality over time. He uses historical data to show that when the return on capital (profit from wealth, e.g., rent, dividends, or investments, abbreviated as r) is higher than the economic growth rate (growth of incomes/output, abbreviated as g), wealth concentrates in the hands of those who already own assets.
4.2 - Poverty and Inequality
Critics of Piketty
Critics of his say that capital has helped to make the world to make the world more equal. Point of the impact of globalisation driving by increasing specialisation, trade and the diffusion of new technologies as helping to reduce extreme poverty and reduce the gap in per capita incomes between countries. World is now more equal than it was in 1950, around the same levl as 1850
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is economic development?
An increase in living standards in a country
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the difference between Economic Growth and Economic Development?
- Economic growth - an increase in the total value of goods and services produced in an economy in a year
- Economic development - an improvement in living standards and economic welfare over time. Most common measure being HDI
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What does the difference between HDI and IHDI represent?
The ‘loss’ in potential human development because of poverty.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the Human Development Index (HDI) based on?
- Health as measured by life expectancy at birth.
- Education as measured by the expected years of schooling.
- Income as measured by real GNI per capita at purchasing power parity.
Each of these three indicators are given equal weighting and a mean is taken to give a figure between 0 and 1. The higher the number, the greater the development.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some advantages of the Human Development Index?
- It is a composite indicator which provides a more useful comparison metric than single indicators do
- It incorporates three of the most important metrics for households i.e. health, education and income
- It is widely used all over the world which provides an opportunity for meaningful comparisons
- It provides a goal for governments to use when developing their policies e.g. it may help identify that the education levels are holding back improvements to the HDI and government policy can target that
- It provides citizens with an understanding of how their quality of life compares to other countries
- ** Comparisons over time can be made**
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some limitations of the HDI
- It does not measure the inequality that exists as it uses the mean GNI/capita - doesn’t show Income inequality
- It does not measure or compare the levels of absolute and relative poverty that exist
- For many countries it does not provide useful short-term information as gathering the data required for the calculation is difficult. This means the data often lags reality by several years
- PPP values change quickly and so the numbers can become inaccurate
- Doesn’t show political freedoms – gender opportunities and human rights
- Equal weighting of indicators may not show the countries priorities
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some other measures of development
IHDI - inequality adjusted HDI
* Will be equal to HDI when there is no inequality, but falls as inequality rises. Never greater than HDI
* Provides greater insight into differences in human development that exist in a country as oposed to average human development
MPI - Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI)
* It measures the complexities of poor people’s lives,
* Tracks deprivatiion across 3 dimensions - Health (child mortality), education (years of schooling) and living standards (access to clean water). Has 10 indictors within these dimensions
* Household is poor if they have 1/3 or more of the wieghted indicators
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
- Primary product dependency
- Volatility of commodity prices
- The savings gap: Harrod-Domar model
- Foreign Currency Gap
- Capital Flight
- Demographic factors
- Access to credit and banking
- Infrastructure
- Debt
- Education and skills
- Absence of property rights
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some the problems with primary product dependency? Give the example of Ghana?
- In 2022 copper exports from Zambia accounted for 70% of their total exports and primary products in excess of 90%. They are suffering from over-specialisation
-
Primary products tend to have a very low-income elasticity of demand (YED). As world income rises, there is a less than proportional increase in demand
* This means that there is limited scope to continue increasing demand - Primary products have very little added value
- Exporting manufactured products raises the added value, incomes and profits
- Natural disasters – can wipe out production of the primary product
- Often non-renewable. So country suffers when they run out of the product. Natural resources – limited supply
- Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis - more on other flashcard
- Dutch disease - more on other flashcard
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis
- **The Prebisch Singer Hypothesis suggests the long run price of primary goods declines in proportion to manufactured goods. **
- Manufactured goods are more YED ELASTIC
- which means those dependent on primary exports will see a fall in their terms of trade.
- This leads to a fall in purchasing, might lead to balance of payments problems and fall in living standards in the future.
- However, in recent years, there has been a rise in the prices of some key commodities, such as food, cocoa and oil and a fall in prices of some manufactured goods due to the expansion to places like China.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is Dutch disease
Dutch disease refers to the negative economic impact that can occur when a country experiences a resource boom (such as discovering large oil reserves). This boom can lead to a stronger currency and higher wages, which in turn makes the country’s other exports less competitive on the global market. As a result, other sectors, like manufacturing, may decline.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How could the negative impacts of primary product dependence be evaluated? Why might primary product dependence not be so bad?
- LEDCs may have a comparative advantage in primary products
- Therefore should continue to develop in areas which they are strongest.
- Argument given by the Bad Samaritans
- Some rich countries have been able to use primary products to develop
- Saudi Arabia and oil. - Primary product revenue should be used to reinvest into manufacturing.
- Forward markets can be used to fix prices in advanced to reduce volatility and risk.
- Not all primary products have a low YED - Diamonds in Botswana.
- Primary products rose steeply in price between 2000-2008 while prices for manufactured goods was falling. They also rose post-pandemic.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the problems with voltality of commodity prices
- Due to the inelastic nature of both the demand and supply of commodities, small changes in demand or supply can lead to large changes in price
- In 2020, 25% of Bolivia’s GDP was generated by exports. Commodities accounted for 60% of its exports
- When commodity prices rise, GDP rises - and vice versa
- A more diversified range of exports prevents this
- Volatility of prices mean that producers income and countries earning are rapidly fluctuating. Making it difficult to plan and carry out long term investment. Rapid falls in producers incomes causes poverty. Investment down and so is confidence so decrease in real GDP
- When prices of commodities rise for a number of years – causes over investment in the production of the commodity causes long term risk when the price eventually falls
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the problems with the savings gap
Harrod-Domar
Developing countries have lower incomes and thus they save less. So therefore there is less money for banks to lend, reducing borrowing and thus reducing investment/consumption. A savings gaps is the difference between the actual savings and the level of savings needed to achieve a higher growth rate
- In the 1950’s two economists identified the savings gap as a major constraint on growth
- The Harrod-Domar model identified the following benefits of increased savings
- Increased savings → increased investment → higher capital stock → higher economic growth → increased savings
- Based on this, any intervention (foreign or governmental) to increase the capital stock in an economy will lead to growth
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are 3 criticisms of the Harrod-Domar model
- It does not account for many other factors such as labour productivity, corruption, technological innovation
- It was created based on data from wealthier industrialising nations as opposed to very poor undeveloped countries
- It focused only on physical investment and ignored other types such as investment in human capital (labour)
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the Harrod Domar Model? DRAW
Emphasis on the importance of savings in the economy.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is a foreign currency gap?
A foreign currency gap happens when currency outflows persistently exceeds currency inflows.
If exports are low in either quantity or value, there will not be enough foreign currency to buy the necessary imports
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
When does a foreign currency gap occur (three reasons)
- When a counry runs a persistent current account deficit
- When there is an outflow of capital from investors - capital flight
- There is a fall in the value of inflows of remittances
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Why is a foreign currency gap a problem?
- Country does not have enough foreign currency to pay for essential imports such as medicines, food
- And other raw materials and replacement component parts for basic machinery.
- The country might not be able to pay off debts and might have to default/seek loan from IMF - bad for credit rating and makes it difficult to seek loans in the future
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How can you fill a foreign currency gap?
- Can be solved by FDI
- Or foreign aid to increase the amount of foreign currency in the economy
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is capital flight?
- Occurs when money or assets rapidly leave a country
- This may happen due to political upheaval, economic sanctions, war, or changes to government policy (e.g. interest rates). Or lack of confidence in country’s stability, hide it from the government or for profit repatiration
- From Feb 2022 to June 2023 Russia had a net capital outflow of $253 billion due to invasion of Ukraine
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Why is capital flight a problem
- It creates a savings/foreign currency gap, which reduces Investment and the ability to fund imports.
- Might make it impossible to pay off debts. Will have to seek an IMF bailout
- Reduces any tax inccomes for the government from the withdraw of savings/financial investments.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How does demographic factors influence growth and development
- If the dependency ratio is high it means there is less money available for savings and investment
- Many developing countries have high dependency ratios
- Developing countries have higher population growth, which limits development. IF population grows by 5%, the economy needs to grow by 5% to keep living standards the same
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Why does poor access to credit and banking hinder economic growth?
- No way to gain loans for spending, or investment
- People cannot save money
- Poor families have to resort to loan sharks with punitive interest rates, leaving them in debt. Cements people in poverty.
However,
* Technology might allow people to gain access to financial systems via mobile phone instead of physical branch.
* Microfinance encourages people to take out loans for investment.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the problems with poor infrastructure?
- Difficult to move raw materials, labour - high costs, not profitable.
- Lack of water and energy makes it impossible to run factories.
- Lack of communications technology means buyres and sellers cannot communicate.
- Therefore deters foreign investment.
- Expensive to improve and also conflicts with environmental goals
- Makes service and production less reliable if the roads are bad for example
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How can poor infrastructure be evaluated
- Foreign aid/loans can be used to improve infrastructure - Belt and Road Initiative and World Bank Loans.
- Foreign investors will improve infrastructure where there are valuable raw materials.
- Chinese belt and road. - Building a new high speed rail from Nairobi to Mombasa
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some of the problems with government debt?
- High levels of borrowing crowds out the market.
- Raises interest rates or creates competition for resources.
- Firms want to borrow to expand but crowded out
- Opportunity cost - paying off loans means that less can be spent on education and infrastructure.
- Higher taxes needed to pay off government debt - reduces business confidence and restrains growth.
- May create a debt cycle for developing countries - interest is so high that the country can never repay - e.g. Ferdinand Marcos. Creates intergenerational inequality
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the problems with poor education and skills?
- Human capital (Gary Becker)
- Adequate human capital ensures the economy can be productive and produce goods and services of a high quality. It helps generate employment and raise standards of living.
- Countries like China and South Korea invested heavily in their human capital when they were developing, and this has benefitted them in the long term. Ethiopia suffers from high illiteracy rates at around only 49%. (Unesco)
- Investing in this supply-side policy increases the potential output of the country (shifts the production possibility frontier outwards)
- Higher education/skill levels → higher human capital → increased productivity → higher output → higher income
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How can poor education and skills be evaluated?
- Education and skills can be improved - Oportunidades programme in Mexico and Bolsa Familia in Brazil
- Foreign aid can also be used
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How can the savings gap be evaluated?
- Savings gap can be filled by FDI, aid or debt cancellation, e.g. FDI flows to Africa in 2014 were about $60bn.
- Microfinance
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is absence of property rights a factor that influences growth and development
- In many countries, property is the main household asset which can be used to secure loans or generate income
- A lack of property rights in some developing countries prevents this from happening
- Loss of property rights in Zimbabwe led to economic collapse
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some non-economic factors taht affect economic growth and development
- Corruption
- Poor Governance
- Wars
- Political instability
- Geography
- Disease
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is corruption a factor in economic growth and development
This is a major problem in many countries. Often money intended for investment is siphoned off by corrupt politicians resulting in a lower level of investment. Corruption alsodiverts fundsto certain groups who have bribed or lobbied officials (e.g. multinational firms) resulting in projects that deliver alow level of growth and development
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is poor governance a factor in economic growth and development
Leads to inefficient use of resources and poor decision-making. It may also result in laws/regulation which directly inhibit growth and development
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is wars a factor in economic growth and development
Conflict destroys infrastructure, disrupts supply chains and often reduces the post war supply of labour. Conflict shifts the production possibility curve inwards
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is political instability a factor in economic growth and development
If governments keep changing, it results in constantly changing policies and priorities. It alsoreduces confidencein the economy and international investors are slower to invest as they are fearful of losing their investment
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is geography a factor in economic growth and development
It is harder for landlocked countries to generate economic growth. Often transportation and administration costs are higher than those with access to ports, which increases the costs of production and decreases international competitiveness. Natural terrain can also be a limiting factor e.g the arid, mountainous terrain of Pakistan
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How is disease a factor in economic growth and development
HIV/AIDS and malaria have a negative impact on economic growth
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Synoptic point of factors of economic growth and development
Factors limiting development include microeconomic ones like inelastic demand and supply for commodities, and macroeconomic ones such as high debt levels. These factors limit growth and development overall.
Development improves conditions for individuals through higher incomes and for firms through increased sales.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some market-oriented strategies to help growth and development
- Fiscal discipline - greater control on government spending, defcitis and debt
- Reallocating state spending away from subsides - to health care, education, infrastructure
- Tax reforms
- Liveralising market interest rates
- Floating rather than fixed exchange rate
- Trade liberalisation
- Privitisation
- Foreign direct investment
- Subsidiy removal
- Microfinance
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is trade liberalisation
Involves a country lowering import tariffs and relaxing import quotas and other forms of protectionism. One key aim is to make an economy more open to trade and investment so that it can engage more directly in regional and global economy.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Diagram of effects of removing an import tariff on cars maybe as part of a new trade agreement
Removing a tariff (ceteris paribus) leads to:
- A fall in market prices from P1 to P2
- An expansion of market demand from Q2 to Q4
- A rise in the volume of imported cars (no longer subject to a tariff) to a new level of Q1-Q3
- A contraction of domestic production as demand shifts to relatively cheaper imported products
- A gain in overall economic welfare including a rise in consumer surplus
- There is a fall in the producer surplus going to domestic manufacturers of these cars
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the micro effects of trade liberalisation
- Lower prices for consumers/households which then increases their real incomes
- Increased competition/lower barriers to entry attracts new firms
- Improved efficiency - both allocative & productive
- Might affect the real wages of workers in affected industries
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the macro effects of trade liberalisation
- Multiplier effects from higher export sales
- Lower inflation from cheaper imports - causing an outward shift of short run aggregate supply
- Risk of some structural unemployment/occupational immobility
- May lead to initially to an increase in the size of a nation’s trade deficit
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Points of potential gains from free trade
- Lower prices
- Economies of scale
- Increased market competition
- Improved allocative efficiency
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Evaluation of potential gains from free trade
- Lost tariff revenues
- Financing costs for necessary infrastructure
- Regulatory refroms for common product standards
- Local businesses may suffer loss of profit/jobs when facing stronger competition
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is Foreign Direct Investment
Investment by one private sector company in one country into another private sector company in another country.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Main gains from attracting inflows of FDI
- Technology transfer- Firms bring technologically advanced capital from a more developed country - reduces primary dependances
- Current account balance improves - As more is exported
- Increased (I) AD - Growth and tax revenues.
- Fill a foreign currency gap
- Improved infrastructure - MNCs will want road/rail to transport any goods that they produce - also in power sector
- Higher capital intensity/capital deepening I.e. more capital per worker leads to higher productivity
- Better training for local workers leading to improved human capital and less risk of structural unemployment
- Investment grows a country’s export capacity
- More competition in markets which then lowers prices for consumers and increases their real incomes
- Creates new jobs leading to higher per capital incomes and increased household savings
- FDI can promote a shift to higher productivity jobs and high value-added industries
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Main risks from policies designed to attract investment into an emerging economy
- Multinationals wield power within host countries, and they gain favourable laws & regulations
- Foreign multinationals take advantage of weak laws on environmental protection
- Multinationals have been criticised for poor working conditions in foreign factories
- Profits made in an LEDC are often repatriated to the host country
- Imports of components/capital goods initially have a negative effect on a country’s trade balance
- Multinationals may only employ local labour in lower skilled jobs
- Inequality – profits from FDI flow disproportionately to powerful elites
- Many global corporations use tax avoidance techniques to increase their profits
- Ethical standards form TNC’s may be poor – especially in mining, farming and textiles
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some policies designed to attract foreign direct investment
- Attractive rates of corporation tax
- Soft loans and tax relief/subsidies
- Trade and investment agreements
- Flexible labour force + skilled workers
- Creation of Special Economic Zones
- High quality critical infrastructure
- Open capital markets for remitted profits
- Attraction of relativaly low unit labour costs
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the pros of removing a government subsidy
-
Market Efficiency
- Restores market efficiency by aligning prices with true supply and demand.
- Prevents overproduction, promoting long-term market stability.
-
Encourages Innovation and Efficiency:
- Encourages innovation and cost-effective practices, enhancing long-term competitiveness.
- Eliminates reliance on guaranteed income, reducing complacency among businesses..
-
Reduces Fiscal Burden and Corruption:
- Reduces subsidy dependency, allowing government funds to be redirected to critical sectors like education and healthcare.
- Minimizes corruption risks by curbing misallocation of financial support.
-
Environmental Benefits:
- Mitigates environmental harm by reducing intensive farming practices, preserving soil, forests, and biodiversity.
- Aligns energy prices with environmental costs, encouraging cleaner energy alternatives.
-
Accurate Pricing and Behavioral Incentives:
- Aligns energy prices with environmental costs, promoting sustainable consumption.
- Improves food choices by reducing the unintended shift toward less nutritious options.
-
Improved Producer Resilience:
- Farmers can enhance efficiency and access markets by diversifying income, adopting technology, or forming cooperatives.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the cons of removing a government subsidy
-
Economic Hardship for Producers
- Leads to a sharp decline in farm incomes, limiting investment in innovation and sustainability.
- Increases risks of business closures, unemployment, and rural poverty, particularly for small-scale farmers.
-
Food Security Risks
- Reduced agricultural output may worsen malnutrition and food shortages for low-income groups.
- Decline in export surpluses could negatively impact trade balances and foreign exchange earnings.
-
Higher Consumer Prices
- Rising food and energy costs disproportionately affect poor households, worsening inequality.
- Consumer surplus declines as prices rise, leading to welfare losses.
-
Short-Term Instability
- Sudden subsidy removal may cause supply shocks, price volatility, and social unrest (e.g., protests over fuel or bread prices).
-
Potential Environmental Trade-Offs
- Desperate producers might resort to unsustainable practices (e.g., illegal logging) to offset lost income, worsening environmental damage.
-
Transition Challenges
- Lack of alternative safety nets (e.g., unemployment benefits) in developing economies could deepen poverty during the adjustment period
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Arguments to choose a floating exchange rate system
- Floating exchange rates help countries absorb external shocks by adjusting currency values, boosting export competitiveness during crises.
- They reduce the need for central bank interventions and large foreign reserves, easing monetary policy management.
- Floating systems attract foreign investment by eliminating the need for capital controls on currency flows.
- Market-determined exchange rates are not inherently volatile and prevent unsustainable defense of fixed rates.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Arguments against choosing a floating currency
- A floating currency suits countries with a low trade-to-GDP ratio, as exchange rate fluctuations have a smaller impact on trade balance and inflation.
- Smaller nations or those with limited reserves may prefer a shared currency, like the euro, for stability.
- Economies with a dominant trade partner might favor a pegged currency to maintain trade advantages.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the different types of microfinance products
- Micro-credit - small scale loans
- Micro-savings - savings clubs provided by charoities
- Micro-insurance - safety net to prrevent people from falling back into extreme poverty
- Remittance management
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the benefits of micro-credit
- Helps overcome the savings gap which limits entrepreneurship
- High rates of repayment because the system is built on social capital/trust
- Provides loans to people that would otherwise be able to recieve them - e.g. women.
- Provides money for investment and entreprueneurial activity
- Helps the poor to increase their incomes so reduces poverty and increases standards of living, e.g. means poor families can afford school fees.
- Should increase growth and reduce unemployment.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What the disadvantages of micro-credit
- Low success rate for new small businesses
- Alleged forcible collection of debt in many villages – this is hard to monitor
- Perhaps relatively ineffective compared to the impact of migrant remittances & foreign direct investment
- May be difficult to get off the ground because locals don’t want to take a risk and get into debt.
- Lack of education may mean locals don’t understand what micro-finance loans are and what the terms are.
- Micro-creditors may take advantage of debtors and charge extortionate rates of interest - India’s SKS charges between 23-35%.
- Not actually used for investment - instead used to pay for weddings, school fees.
- Mental health issues.
- Reduction in other forms of aid
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the benefits of privatisation
- Private companies have a profit incentive to cut costs and be more productively efficient - no more corruption
- Government gains revenue from the sale of assets and no longer has to support a loss-making industry
- If a state monopoly is replaced by a number or firms this extra contestability in an industry will lead to lower prices which helps to increase the real incomes of poorer households
- The competitiveness of the macro economy may improve especially if privatisation leads to increased investment and benefits from economies of scale. Improved competitiveness will then drive higher exports and long run GDP growth
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the disadvantages of privatisation
- Social objectives are given less importance because privately-owned firms are driven by the profit motive
- Some activities are best run by the state operating in the public interest because they are strategic parts of the economy e.g. water supply, steel and railways and have the characteristics of a natural monopoly
- Government loses out on dividends from any future profits
- Public sector assets are often sold cheaply, and the privatisation may suffer from corruption
- Privatisation leads to job losses as firms increase their efficiency – this increases the risk of poverty for those affected especially if they are structurally unemployed
- Unless privatised corporations are regulated effectively, there is a risk of creative private monopolies who use their market power to increase prices and profits, this can have a regressive effect on the distribution of income.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Economic justifications for Brazil imposing high import tariffs
- Protecting domestic industries . This can help to ensure that domestic industries are able to grow and develop, and that they are not undercut by cheaper imports. (Import substitution / infant industry argument)
- Generates tax revenues for the Brazilian government. revenue can fund investment in infrastructure, provision of public & merit goods
- Import tariffs can support domestic jobs and investment and thereby promote growth & development by lifting per capita incomes
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Risks / disadvantages of the Brazilian government using protectionism as a growth and development strategy.
- Higher prices: Tariffs can lead to higher prices for consumers which reduces real incomes and can worsen relative poverty.
- Productive inefficiency: Protectionism can lead to emergence of X-inefficiencies and reduced innovation / dynamic efficiency
- Risk of tit-for-tat trade wars: Where countries impose tariffs on each other’s goods with escalating measures. (Game theory)
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the benefits of improved human capital
- Enhanced Productivity: Human capital development, particularly in education and skills training, increases the productivity of the labour force.
- Poverty Reduction: By improving the skills and employability of the population, human capital development enables individuals to secure higher wages.
- Innovation and Technological Advancement: A well-educated and skilled workforce is more likely to engage in research, development, and innovation.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Companies are more likely to invest in countries with a well-educated and skilled workforce, as it reduces their training costs and improves the overall business environment.
- Economic Diversification: A skilled labour force can reduce a country’s reliance on a single industry or sector, making its economy more resilient.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Barriers to Completing Education
- Financial Barriers: Many families in low-income countries struggle to afford school fees, uniforms, books, and transportation. This can lead to children dropping out of school to contribute to household income.
- Lack of Access to Schools: In rural and remote areas, schools may be inaccessible or too far from students’ homes.
- Quality of Education: Inadequate resources, poorly trained teachers, and overcrowded classrooms can result in a low-quality education.
- Gender Disparities: Gender bias often prevents girls from attending school, particularly in societies where traditional roles and early marriage are common.
- Cultural and Social Norms: Some cultural norms and practices may prioritize child labor or discourage education, particularly for girls or marginalized groups.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some strategies to improve human capital
- Strategies to improve nutrition and reduce the extent of stunted growth among young people
- Other health interventions can increase school attendance - a famous study in Kenya by Esther Duflo found that deworming in childhood reduced school absences while raising wages in adulthood by as much as 20%
- Increased investment in primary and secondary schooling
- Incentives to attract an inflow of skilled migrant workers and curb ‘brain drains’ of highly qualified people
- Investment in training to re-skill people at risk of structural unemployment from the fast-changing pattern of employment including robotics and AI
- Cash transfer interventions can increase demand for education, especially among the poorest families who must make hugely difficult decisions about how to spend a meagre budget
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Reasons for using managed exchange rates
Above equilibrium price
- Reduce import costs and input prices (increased competitiveness)
- A more stable currency - encouarges investment as firms know in advante their export revenues and imported input costs
- Make debt easier to repay.
Below equilibrium price
- Keep goods cheap to make exports more internationally competitive.
- Encourage FDI
- Prevents primary product exports from appreciating exchange rates - Dutch disease (If set below equilibrium)
General
* Price Stability: If a currency is depreciating, it can lead to higher inflation due to increased import prices. Central banks can use interventions to moderate these fluctuations and maintain price stability.
* External shocks mitigation: A managed floating exchange rate helps developing and emerging market countries withstand external shocks. These include changes in global commodity prices or economic crises in major trading partners, by allowing the currency to adjust to shifting external conditions.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Risks in using managed exchange rates
- Not all countries have central banks with sufficient reserves of gold and foreign currency to make intervention in a currency market effective.
- There can be political pressure on central banks to intervene in the foreign exchange market for short-term political gains, which may not be in the long term economic interest of the country.
- Other countries might regard managed floating as a form of trade protectionism which in turn might lead to the risk of retaliatory action
- Maintaining a managed exchange rate may reduce the incentive for a country to implement necessary economic reforms. Governments may rely on the exchange rate as a temporary fix rather than addressing structural issues.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Why would promoting joint ventures with global companies help a developing country grow
- Navigate around exploitation by TNCs.
- The government can insist that any investment that takes place has to be in joint venture with a local company. shared ownership
- Profits always stay in the country and the circular flow, knowledge and infrastructure is retained.
- Access to better technology and expertise: Can help developing countries to improve labour productivity and competitiveness. This will lift per capita incomes. (Improved human capital / knowhow)
- Job creation: Joint ventures can create jobs. This helps to reduce unemployment, creates positive multiplier effects, raises factor incomes and can generate extra tax revenues for the government.
- Savings Gap and Export Potential: Investment linked to joint ventures helps to overcome a domestic savings gap. And can promote an increase in productive capacity and capabilities.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How do joint ventures work?
- One way to reduce MNCs exploiting developing countries is by making foreign firms establishes joint ventures with local firms - shared ownership
- This obliges the MNCs to share profits with a local firm
- As a result, not all of the profits are sent back to a foreign country
- Also results in a transfer of knowledge from the MNC to the firm in the developing countries
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Drawbacks to developing countries of agreeing joint ventures with multinationals from other countries.
- Dominant partners: Potential ceding of control to multinational organisations who might take a majority stake in the joint venture.
- Joint ventures might lead to exploitation of workers and the environment in low-income nations. Much depends on the quality of government & extent of corruption
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are buffer stock schemes?
- Schemes run by the government, a group of countries or a group of producers to stabilise the price of a product.
- E.g. International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO), International tin council (ITC)
- They buy and sell on the open market to maintain minimum and maximum prices of the product.
- Buffer stock schemes operate in commodity markets where prices are volatile.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Why are commdity prices volatile?
-
Cobweb theorum - This year’s output is based on last year’s prices.
- Producers assume that high prices will persist - they all invest and increase their output. Leads to a fall in prices.
- Produces assume that low prices persist - they will decrease their output, increasing the price.
-
Inelastic demand and inelastic supply
- Price changes are more than proportionate.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How do buffer stock schemes work? (Price controls)
- There is a price ceiling and a price floor
- If the price goes above the price ceiling (P2), buffer stock scheme sells x-y of stock to bring down price below the price ceiling.
- If price goes below price floor (P1), buffer stock scheme buys a-b of stock to maintain price above price price floor.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How does a price target buffer stock schemes work?
- Under this system, the scheme tries to maintain the price at a target price Pt.
- If supply > S1 the scheme buys up A-B to maintain the price target.
- If supply < S1, the scheme sells back E-F to the market to maintain the price target.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Arguments in support of a buffer stock scheme
- Stabilises income of producers
- Protects jobs
- Stabilises prices for consumers - some commodities are necessities - e.g. wheat, rice.
- Improves the balance of payments - importnant for countries that are primary product dependent.
- Reduces monopsony power of buyers, e.g. MNCs and coffee.
- Firms can force prices up
- Investment: When prices are stable, producers are better able to plan and invest, in new capital which can lead to increased yields and improved quality. This, in turn, can lead to higher per capita incomes and a reduction in extreme poverty.
- Food security: In low-income countries, buffer stock schemes can help ensure food security by maintaining adequate supplies of key commodities. This can help prevent food shortages and price spikes for example after an external shock.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Problems / limitations with using a buffer stock
- Costs - admin & storage costs are high.
- Could encourage over production
- Prevents exit of inefficient producers
- Large scale producers may benefit more than the small scale producers it’s supposed to protect - they have EOS.
- Fee to join the scheme
- Management: Governments may struggle to effectively manage a scheme in poorer rural areas with limited storage infrastructure and technical expertise. Inadequate storage facilities can lead to falling quality of stocks which command lower prices
- Inefficiency: Prices might be set too high – favouring producers – which in the long run leads to over-production, surpluses mounting and risks causing environmental damage. These externalities might be seen as a form of government failure.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some alternatives to buffer stocks
- Subsidies: Governments can provide subsidies to farmers, either in the form of direct payments or through subsidies for inputs such as fertilizers and seeds. This can help reduce the cost of production and increase the competitiveness of farmers.
- Agricultural insurance: Governments can offer insurance programs that provide protection against crop losses due to weather events or other factors.
- Rural infrastructure: Governments can invest in infrastructure such as roads, water supply, and electricity, which can improve productivity/competitiveness of farmers.
- Market information systems: Governments can invest in market information systems that provide farmers with real-time information on prices, supply and demand
- Farmer cooperatives: Governments can support the development of farmer cooperatives, which can help farmers increase their relatively bargaining power against monopsonistic buyers. This can help farmers negotiate better prices for their products.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the dual economy in Lewis’s model?
A developing economy split into two sectors:
1. Traditional rural/agricultural sector (low productivity, surplus labor).
1. Modern urban/industrial sector (high productivity, capital-intensive).
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the “unlimited labour supply” in Lewis’s model?
Surplus rural laborers can move to the urban sector without reducing agricultural output due to underemployment in subsistence farming.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Why do wages stay stagnant in the rural sector?
Lewis model for development
Excess labor supply keeps wages low; only rise after the Lewis Turning Point (surplus labor exhausted).
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How does the urban sector drive growth?
Lewis model for development
Profits from industry are reinvested to expand production, creating jobs and absorbing rural migrants
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the three stages in Lewis’s model
- Initial phase: Labor shifts from rural to urban sectors.
- Growth phase: Urban sector expands via reinvestment; rural sector shrinks.
- Turning point: Rural surplus labor dries up, wages rise.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What marks the Lewis Turning Point?
When surplus rural labor is exhausted, causing rural wages to rise and signaling transition to a mature industrial economy.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are key criticisms of Lewis’s model?
- Oversimplifies rural productivity (ignores potential agricultural innovation).
- Assumes rigid wages and unlimited labor (not always realistic).
- Neglects urban unemployment or informal sector challenge
- Forced industrialisation has tended to lead to a waste of scarce resources because the industries have failed. Government failure
- Encouraging rural depopulation will simply lead to urban poverty, not increased affluence.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the model’s main policy implication?
Focus on industrialization and labor reallocation to modern sectors for structural economic transformation.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some other strategies to promote growth and development
- Industrialisation: the Lewis model
- Development of tourism
- Development of primary industries
- Fairtrade schemes
- Aid
- Debt relief
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
How does tourism drive development and growth
- Employment creation, tourism tends to be a labour-intensive industry
- Tourism typically employs a higher percentage of women and younger people starting out in the labour market
- Export earnings – it generates important foreign exchange (US$s)
- Important source of diversification for many smaller countries – helps them move away from primary product dependency
- Gives a boost to AD - creating local and regional income-multiplier effects
- Accelerator effects from capital investment such as in airlines, roads and telecoms – leads to an increase in long run aggregate supply (LRAS)
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What the risks from dependence on tourism
- Exploitation of local labour by overseas transnational tourist businesses (monopsony)
- M/any workers in tourism are migrants suffering from poor employment conditions
- Outflow of profits from foreign-owned resorts.
- All-inclusive deals often ignore the local economy – reduces the multiplier effect
- Negative externalities – for example from construction, congestion and increased waste as tourist resorts expand
- Rising property prices can make housing less affordable for local people. Wider risk of increasing inflation if tourism causes a domestic economic boom.
- Deepening pressures on local cultures + concerns with security and public health
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are fairtrade schemes
Initiatives ensuring fair payment for producers in developing countries, promoting sustainable farming, and improving working conditions by setting minimum prices and offering community development premiums.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the benefits of Fairtrade schemes
- Income Generation: Ensures that producers receive a minimum price. Helps stabilize income and provide a safety net against global price volatility. Counter balance to monopsony power
- Market Access: Fairtrade certifications allow small scale producers with access to consumers in higher-income global markets that they might not have been able to reach without the certification. Leads to increased sales, higher revenues and profits could fund capital reinvestment
- Community development: Fairtrade initiatives sometimes include funds for community development profits e.g. schools, healthcare facilities
- Environmental Sustainability: Fairtrade includes environmental standards and promotes sustainable agricultural practices
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the limitations of fairtrade schemes
- Limited sales: Often criticized for its limited reach. Not all producers reach the certification requirements and many small-scale farmers remain excluded
- Certification Costs: Obtaining and maintaining Fairtrade certification can be costly. These costs might be prohibitive for some smaller producers and co-operatives
- Market Dynamics: Impact can be limited in markets where it constitutes a small fraction of total sales. In some sectors Fairtrade producers may struggle to compete with non-certified products in terms of price
- Complexity and Bureaucracy: It can be complex and bureaucratic, particular for small producers who may lack the resources to navigate it effectively.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the diagram for fairtrade schemes
- Calculated to cover the cost of sustainable production and provide a reasonable livelihood for the farmers and workers
- Acts as a safety net for producers. Typically set at 15% above the commercial price
- Protects small scale farmers from market fluctuations
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are the different types of debt relief
- Debt Forgiveness – The complete cancellation of a country’s debt by its creditors. Typically, only granted after a natural disaster of if a country has taken significant steps to implement economic reforms
- Debt Restructuring - Involves the renegotiation of a country’s debt terms with its creditors. May involve extending the maturity of the debt, lowering the interest rate, reducing the principal amount owed
- Debt Rescheduling: Involves changing the schedule of the debt payments so that a country can meet its debt obligations without defaulting
- Debt Equity Swaps - Involve exchanging a country’s debt for equity in local companies or infrastructure projects. Can help to reduce a country’s debt burden and promote economic growth
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
3 Arguments in favour of debt relief for poor nations
- Debt relief can help alleviate extreme poverty in low-income countries by freeing up funds for a government that can be used for healthcare, sanitation, education and other key social services
- Debt relief might stimulate growth by enabling countries to invest in capital without being burdened by debt interest repayments.
- Debt relief can provide humanitarian relief to countries that have experienced natural disasters or civil conflicts, which can further exacerbate their already fragile economic situations.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
4 Arguments against debt relief for poor nations
- Debt relief may create a moral hazard by encouraging countries to accumulate debt with the expectation that it will eventually be forgiven. This might encourage fiscal irresponsibility in the future.
- Debt relief may also have a negative impact on a country’s credit rating, making it more difficult for them to secure loans in the future.
- Debt relief may be seen as unfair or inequitable to developing countries that have responsibly managed their government finances and do not receive similar relief.
- Debt relief eased pressure on weak governments to be efficient and adopt good econoimc policies
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is overseas aid
Is money or technical assistance given by one country to another to promote economic and social development
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are different types of aid
- Project Aid: Financing projects for a doner such as irrigation systems, hospitals
- Technical assistance: Funding of expertise such as engineers, medics
- Humanitarian aid: Emergency disaster relief, food aid, refugee relief and disaster preparedness
- Soft loans: A loan made on a concessionary basis such as China – Africa
- Tied aid: Projects tied to suppliers in the donor country
- Debt relief
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Positives for overseas aid
- Overseas aid can play a role in stabilizing post-conflict environments and in disaster recovery
- Long-term aid for health and education projects - builds human capital and stronger social institutions.
- Targeted aid that lifts trend growth rate of poorest countries benefits donor countries as external trade grows
- Fill the savings gap
- Consumers in developing countries have low incomes and therefore save very little. Savings are lower than the level required to generate high economic growth (according to the Harrod Dommar model). Inflows of foreign capital, supplied by foreign aid would help fill the savings gap.
- Provides funds for infrastructure and development, HUMAN CAPITAL– therefore creates jobs, a multiplier effect and growth. Help a country MOVE AWAY FROM PPP
- Cover the FOREIGN CURRENCY GAP
- Export revenues are likely scarce. Foreign aid would provide foreign currency to import machinery, capital equipment and essential raw materials. OR basic essentials like food to reduce abolsute poverty
- Reduce absolute poverty
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Drawbacks of Overseas Aid
- Poor governance - aid might leave the recipient country. It can finance corruption by ruling political elites and reinforce their power
- Lack of transparency – hundreds of $m is spent each year on aid consultants and high-income country non-governmental organisations
- Dependency culture – heavy reliance on overseas aid might harm an entrepreneurial culture. Most aid is “tied” to the donor country in some shape or form
- Aid may lead to a distortion of market forces and a loss of economic efficiency and might also cause higher rates of inflation
- WHITE ELEPHANT PROJECTS - Much aid has been wasted on prestige projects E.g. Lotus Tower in Sri Lanka. Rather than schools.
- Loans have to be repaid with interest. Current interest on world bank loans are 2.5% (Feb 2023)
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
William Easterly’s Criticism of Overseas Aid
- Skcepticism of Centralized Planning: Easterly is critical of large, top-down development programmes and centralized planning. He argues that such approaches often lack the flexibility and local knowledge required to address the diverse and complex needs of poor communities.
- Local Solutions: Easterly advocates for more attention to local, context-specific solutions. He believes that local knowledge and bottom-up approaches are more likely to lead to successful development outcomes.
- The Role of Markets: Easterly is supportive of market-based approaches and the importance of entrepreneurship in driving economic growth and development. He sees the private sector as a critical player in poverty reduction.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Arguments Supporting Cash Transfers
- Reducing poverty and inequality: Direct cash transfers provide a direct and effective way of reducing poverty and inequality by giving money to people who need it the most. This improves living standards of low-income households and might reduce the Gini coefficient. It might also reduce the scale of labour migration / possible brain drains.
- Empowerment: Direct cash transfers empower individuals by giving them the freedom to spend the money as they see fit. By providing a reliable and predictable source of income, cash transfers help households to plan and make investment in their own human capital. It can keep kids in school for longer. It can improve mental health outcomes.
- Stimulating local economies: Direct cash transfers can stimulate local economies by increasing demand. This can lead to increased economic activity and formal job creation, especially in areas where there is high unemployment and under-employment
- Cost-effectiveness: Cash transfers may be less expensive to administer than in-kind transfers (such as food or clothing), which can be more difficult to distribute and monitor.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Arguments against direct cash transfers
- Sustainability: Critics argue that direct cash transfers may not be sustainable in the long run, as they do not address the root causes of poverty and inequality, such as lack of access to education, health care, and employment opportunities.
- Dependency: Some argue that direct cash transfers may create a culture of dependency among recipients, perhaps discouraging them from seeking employment. This might perpetuate the cycle of absolute poverty.
- Inflation: Direct cash transfers may contribute to inflation by increasing demand for goods and services such as food. If prices rise, the real purchasing power of transfers may be eroded, reducing impact on poverty reduction
- Corruption: There are concerns that direct cash transfers may be subject to corruption, with government officials or others embezzling funds or diverting them to politically connected individuals or groups.
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the IMF and what are its functions
Established in 1945 to promote international monetary cooperation
Functions
- Surveillance – Monitoring the global economy and providing policy advice
- Financial assistance – lending to member countries facing balance of payments problems
- Technical assistance and training to member countries
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
Criticisms of the IMF
- Austerity Measures and Social Impact - IMF programmes often improve austerity measures – reducing spending and subsides, which can lead to negative social impacts such as increased poverty and inequalities
- Debt Sustainability – Loans can contribute to a country’s debt burden if not managed effectively. Critics say that the institution should do more to ensure that borrowing countries maintain sustainable levels of government debt
- Financial Sector Deregulation - Promoting financial sector deregulation, which some say has contributed to financial crisis in the past
- Lack of Accountability - Some say that the IMF is not sufficiently accountable for its policy recommendations and their consequences, making it challenging to hold the institution responsible for any negative outcomes
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What is the World Bank and what are its main objectives
Established in 1944, is a group of 5 institutions
Main objectives include
- Providing financial and technical assistance to developing countries
- Reducing poverty and fostering sustainable economic development
- Supporting infrastructure projects and social programmes
Financial assistance comes in forms of loans, grants and policy advice
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are some criticisms of the World Bank
- Critics of the World Bank argue that the institution is risk averse, hugely over-staffed and overly sensitive to criticisms of their flagship projects and with multi-million-dollar expense accounts in stark contrast to their original mission
- The institution has been criticized for being influenced by more powerful member countries, potentially leading to decisions that favour those countries’ interests over those of smaller or poorer nations
- Infrastructure-Centric Approach: Some contend that the World Bank’s emphasis on infrastructure projects may neglect crucial areas such as education, healthcare and social services
- Climate change: Critics claim the World Bank has failed to adequately address the scale of the global climate crisis, alongside its traditional mission of alleviating poverty
4.3 - Emerging and developing economies
What are NGOs and some examples
Not for profit groups – focus on environmental improvements, community developmental and human rights
E,g,
- Oxfam
- WWF (world wildlife foundation)
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is a financial market
Any place or system that provides buyers and sellers the means to exchange goods/services and trade financial instruments
* These include bonds, equities, international currencies, and derivatives
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the Key Roles of Financial Markets
- Facilitate savings.
- Lend to businesses and individuals.
- Facilitate payment systems.
- Provide forward markets.
- Provide a market for shares (equities).
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What regulations can be introduced to regulate the financial market?
- Banning market rigging - jail sentences
- Liquidity ratios,
- Preventing the sale of unsuitable products
- Maximum interest rates to prevent consumer exploitation and prevent excessively risky lending
- Deposit insurance to protect consumer reposits.
- Cap on bonuses
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What types of financial market are there
- Bond Market – 2021 estimated that global corporate bond market worth $10 trillion
- Stock Market – Overseas firms can list on the UK stock market
- Currency Market – Trade in currency markets traded $6.6 trillion per day in 2021
- Mortgage Market - there are 11 million outstanding mortgages in the UK as of May 2021
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How do Businesses use Financial Markets
- To finance a business start-up – hundreds of thousands per year, over a thousand per day on average
- Finance a merger or a takeover – value of M&A in 2019 amounted to $3.7 trillion
- Finance Capital investment – in 2019 business investment grew by 1.8%
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the money market
- The money market is a financial market for short-term, highly liquid debt securities.
- It includes instruments like Treasury bills, commercial paper, and certificates of deposit.
- Participants include banks, financial institutions, and corporations seeking short-term financing or investments.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the capital market
- The capital market deals with long-term debt and equity securities.
- It encompasses the primary market (where new securities are issued – for example when a business floats on one or more stock markets) and the secondary market (where existing securities such as bonds and shares are traded).
- Securities in the capital market include stocks, bonds, and real estate investments.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the Foreign Exchange Market
- The foreign exchange market is where currencies are bought and sold.
- It facilitates international trade and investment by enabling the exchange of one currency for another.
- The forex market operates 24/5 and is decentralized.
- The most heavily traded currency is the US dollar ($)
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How is the money supply measured?
Money supply measures total available money, categorized by liquidity:
* M1 (Narrow): Physical currency + checking deposits (liquid, daily transactions).
* M2/M3 (Broad): Savings/time deposits, near-money (less liquid)
Total = M1 + Broad aggregates (M2, M3, etc.).
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is digital money
- Digital money, also known as electronic money or digital currency, refers to a form of currency that exists solely in electronic or digital form.
- It does not have a physical counterpart like paper money or coins.
- Digital money is used for various types of transactions, including online purchases, electronic fund transfers, digital payments, and peer-to-peer transfers.
- It has become increasingly prevalent with the growth of e-commerce, digital banking, and the development of new financial technologies.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What explains the growth of digital money
- Convenience: Digital money provides unparalleled convenience for conducting transactions. Eliminating the need for physical cash or in-person visits to banks. Mobile money technologies have accelerated.
- Globalization: Digital money facilitates rapid cross-border payments.
- Security: Many digital money systems incorporate robust security measures, including encryption and authentication, to protect users’ financial information. These security features reduce the risk of fraud, theft, and counterfeiting.
- COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic prompted more people to embrace contactless payment methods to reduce the risk of virus transmission.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Equity Finance
Finance from shareholders the issue of new shares/stocks which carry voting rights
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Debt Finance
Borrowing money – requires paying interest (on loans) and may also need security
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the difference between Debt and Equity
Debt: Debt represents borrowing by individuals or organizations.
- It involves periodic interest payments and repayment of the principal amount at maturity.
- Bondholders are creditors with a claim on the issuer’s assets but no ownership stake.
Equity: Equity represents ownership in a business or an asset.
- Equity holders are shareholders or owners who have a residual claim on the assets and earnings of a company.
- Equity securities include common stock and preferred stock.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are bonds
Corporate Bonds – From a company (lending money to a firm)
Government Bonds – From a government (lending money to government)
- Bond is a loan
- Repaid when the bond matures
- Also pays annual interest
- Market trades the bond after issue
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How are bond prices affected by changes in market interest rates?
Bond prices and market interest rates are inversely related. When market interest rates rise above a bond’s coupon rate, the bond’s fixed payments become less attractive than those of newer issues, causing its price to fall. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the fixed payments become more appealing, and the bond’s price rises.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is a bond yield, and how is it calculated?
A bond yield is the bond’s coupon expressed as a percentage of its current market price. For example, if a bond pays a coupon of £1,000 and its current market price is £20,000, the yield is
£1,000/£20,000 x 100 = 5%
.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Why do bond prices drop when interest rates rise?
New bonds offer higher coupons, making existing bonds with lower fixed payments less desirable, reducing their market price.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Reasons why 10-year bond yields differ between countries
- Inflation risk: Countries with higher actual and expected inflation will have higher bond yields to compensate investors for the expected loss of real purchasing power.
- Default risk: Countries with higher national debt or and/or persistently large fiscal deficits will usually have higher bond yields as investors demand compensation for the increased risk of default.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Likely economic effects of a rise in bond yields on government debt for a country such as the UK
- Debt service costs: The government will have to pay more in interest payments on its outstanding debt. This might reduce the financial resources available for spending on education, NHS and other priority areas.
- Currency appreciation: High bond yields might attract inflows of financial capital (hot money) from overseas which could then cause a currency appreciation. This will help control imported inflation but might worsen the price competitiveness of export sectors
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are Investment Banks
- Role – Investment banks specialize in activities related to capital markets, such as underwriting securities, facilitating mergers and acquisitions, and providing services to corporations
- Customer Focus – Investment banks primarily serve corporations, institutional investors, and high-net-worth individuals
- Regulation - They are subject to different regulations than commercial banks, often with a focus on securities and financial market operations
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How do investment banks make a profit
- Underwriting – assist in raising capital by underwriting securities offering (such as IPO). Buy securities from issue at discount price and sell to public at higher price, profiting from price difference
- Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory – Provide advisory services. Earn fees as a percentage of the transaction value.
- Trading and sales – Engaged in trading activities in various financial markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and derivatives
- Asset Management – Manage investment portfolios for clients. Charge management frees as a percentage of the assets under management. Also performance fees based on investment returns.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are Hudge Funds
Pooling money from a group of investors and use investment strategies to generate returns. Aim to generate returns that are not correlated to overall market and often considered to be high risk, high reward investment option
Key characteristics
* Limited number of investors - Typically have a limited number of investors, often have high minimum investment amount
* Diversified investment strategies - Wide range of strategies including long and short position, derivate contracts and leverage.
* Use of leverage – Use leverage to increase potential returns, but this can also increase the risk.
* High fees - Charge high fees, typically a percentage of assets under management plus a performance fee based on returns
What are Commercial Banks
- Banks are licensed deposit-takers providing a range of savings accounts
- They are licensed to lend money and thereby create money via new bank loans, overdrafts and mortgages
- A commercial bank’s business model relies on charging a higher interest rate on loans (or other assets) than the rate it pays out on deposits (or other liabilities)
- This spread on assets and liabilities pays the operating expenses of a bank and helps them to make a profit
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are Leveraged Loans
Leveraged loans are loans provided to companies with a high level of debt compared to their equity. These loans are typically used by companies with lower credit ratings and are issued by private equity firms or hedge funds rather than traditional banks. The key characteristics of leveraged loans are:
1. High debt-to-equity ratio: The company borrowing the loan has a high amount of debt compared to its equity, making it riskier for lenders.
1. Floating interest rates: The interest rates on leveraged loans are often variable, which means they can change over time.
1. Higher risk: Leveraged loans carry a higher risk of default, which is why they often have higher interest rates and fees than traditional loans.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the main functions of Commerical Banks
- Accepting Deposits: Commercial banks offer safe and easily accessible deposit accounts, including savings accounts, checking accounts, and fixed deposits.
- Providing Loans: They extend credit to individuals and businesses for various purposes, such as mortgages, business loans, and personal loans.
- Payment Services: Commercial banks facilitate payment and fund transfer services through checks, electronic funds transfers, and online banking.
- Safekeeping of Valuables: Some commercial banks offer safe deposit boxes for customers to store valuable items securely.
- Currency Exchange: They provide foreign exchange services to facilitate international trade and travel.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the Assets of Commercial Banks
- Cash and Reserves - Funds held in the central bank or as cash on hand
- Loans and Advances - The money lent out to borrowers
- Investments - Securities held by the bank, such as government bonds or corporate bonds
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the Liabilities of Commercial Banks
- Deposits - Funds held in customer accounts
- Borrowings - Funds borrowed from other financial institutions
- Capital - The bank’s equity, including share and retained earnings
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How commercial banks create credit
- Fractional Reserve System: Banks create credit by using the fractional reserve system, where they are required to hold only a fraction of their deposits as cash / liquid reserves and can lend out the rest.
- Money Multiplier Effect: When banks lend out a portion of the funds deposited with them, these funds are deposited in other banks, creating a chain reaction of lending and increasing the money supply.
- Credit Creation Process: As banks make loans, they effectively create new money in the form of additional deposits. This process multiplies the initial deposit and contributes to economic activity measured by GDP
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Limits to credit creation by banks
- Market forces – the profitable lending opportunities to businesses and households can often fluctuate for example at different stages of the cycle
- The risks of lending including default risk from the borrower
- Regulatory policies such as minimum capital reserve requirements as part of regular bank stress tests
- Monetary policy - level of policy interest rates set by the Bank of England influences total demand for loans
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How commercial banks make profit
- Interest-rate spreads - Charging a higher interest rate on loans than the rate paid to savers
- Service Fees – Fees charged when arranging business & personal loans
- Brokerage percentages – Many banks provide currency and share-dealing services and charge a brokerage fee for doing so
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is a Non-Performing Loan
A non-performing loan (NPL) is a loan where the borrower has stopped making payments and is in default. The loan is considered non-performing when it is more than 90 days overdue. NPLs are a major concern for commercial banks because they represent a loss of revenue and can also have negative effects on the bank’s capital and liquidity.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Factors causing high non-performing loans
- Economic downturns: During economic downturns, businesses and individuals may struggle to repay their loans, leading to an increase in NPLs.
- Industry-specific issues: Certain industries, such as construction may be more prone to NPLs due to the cyclical nature of their business.
- Credit standards: When commercial banks loosen their credit standards, they may lend to riskier borrowers, leading to a higher probability of defaults.
- Fraud: Some borrowers may intentionally default on their loans through fraudulent behaviour, such as falsifying financial information to obtain loans they can’t repay. This is a type of financial market failure.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Trade-off between Liquidity and Profitability
Banks must balance holding liquid assets to meet deposit withdrawals and fund operations with investing in higher-yield, often less liquid assets for profit. Higher liquidity ensures safety and quick access to funds but typically offers lower returns, while investing in less liquid assets can boost earnings yet increases risk. This trade-off is further managed by regulations, such as minimum liquidity requirements imposed by central banks, to safeguard customer deposits and maintain overall financial stability.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Causes of Commercial Bank Failures
- Poor management: This can include taking on too much risk, making bad loans
- Lack of diversification in the bank’s loan portfolio - for example, excessive lending to the volatile property market.
- Insufficient reserves to cover bad loans: Banks must set aside a certain amount of money to cover the possibility of loan defaults
- Run on the bank: A bank can fail if too many depositors withdraw their money at the same time, this is called a run on the bank.
- Economic downturns: Recessions can lead to an increase in loan defaults and a decrease in the value of the bank’s assets
- Regulatory failure: Inadequate regulatory oversight can lead to risky practices, fraud and corruption, and ultimately bank failure.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Examples of Commerical Bank Failures
- Northern Rock: This bank failed in 2007. The government had to step in and nationalize the bank in 2008. It was eventually sold to other investors including Virgin Money.
- RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland): RBS required a government bailout in 2008 due to its exposure to bad loans and toxic assets. The government took a majority stake in the bank, and it eventually returned to private ownership.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is a Credit Crunch
- A credit crunch, also known as a credit squeeze, is a period when the availability of credit from banks decreases, making it harder for individuals and businesses to borrow money.
- During a credit crunch, lending institutions may become more risk-averse and increase their lending standards, making it more difficult for borrowers such as households and businesses to qualify for new loans or to extend their existing debts.
- Banks may also call back loans or reduce credit lines for existing borrowers. This can lead to a decrease in consumer spending and capital investment, which can slow down AD and perhaps cause a recession.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What occured during the Credit Crunch of 2007-2009
The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States, which led to a decline in the value of mortgage-backed securities held by banks and other financial institutions around the world. This caused a decrease in the availability of credit and shortly after, an economic recession. Commercial banks became more risk-averse and tightened their lending standards, making it harder for individuals and businesses to borrow money. Credit supply contracted
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Arguments for allowing banks to fail
- Encourages Market Discipline: Creates an incentive for financial institutions to adopt sound lending models and avoid high leverage
- Promotes Competition: Challenger banks can step in whereas bail outs make financial markets less contestable – which is bad for customers in long run
- Avoids Moral Hazard: Government bailouts create a moral hazard by providing a safety net for banks, which may encourage them to take on excessive risk, knowing that they will be rescued in the event of failure.
- Protects Taxpayers: Bailing out failing banks can be costly to taxpayers. Allowing banks to fail means that losses are absorbed by shareholders and creditors of the bank, not taxpayers.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Justifications for Bank Bail-outs
- Preventing Systemic Risk: A bailout of a failing bank can prevent a bank run, which can trigger a domino effect leading to the failure of other banks in the financial system, creating a systemic risk
- Protecting Depositors: Bailing out a bank can protect depositors’ savings and reduce the risk of them losing their money. Deposits in UK banks are insured up to a certain amount.
- Externalities from financial market failure: There are negative externalities from allowing a systemic banking failure – justifies intervention and regulatory reforms
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Market Failure
Market failure happens when the price mechanism fails to allocate scarce resources efficiently or when the operation of market forces lead to a net social welfare loss.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the main causes of financial market failure
- Externalities from financial instability
- Monopoly power in financial markets
- Market rigging
- Speculative bubbles/irrational behaviour
- Moral hazard and attitudes to risk
- Asymmetric information and complexity
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are Speculative Bubbles
A bubble exists when the market price of a financial asset is driven above what it should be such as a speculative boom in housing, crypto, NFTs, commodities or share prices. Speculation can be amplified by herd behaviour where many people take the same decision.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are some examples of financial bubbles
- Gold rushes in the late 19th century
- Real estate bubbles
- Dot com boom from 1997-2000
- Crypto-currencies
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the 5 stages of a financial bubble
- Displacement stage - excitement grows about a new product/emerging technology
- Prices boom as demand surges + limited (inelastic) supply causing market prices to spike higher
- Euphoria as more investors look to take advantage (Robert Shiller calls this “irrational exuberance”)
- Profit taking stage – some investors sell as they realise prices are out of line with fundamentals
- Panic - the herd mentality switches to desperate selling and prices fall fast inflicting big losses
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Explain Herd Behaviour during a bubble
Herd behaviour is where individuals act in a certain way because they believe that others are acting in the same way, even if it may not be the most rational decision.
* Fear of missing out (FOMO) - investors may feel a sense of urgency to participate in the rally, even if it is not based on sound analysis.
* Availability bias - investors may place too much emphasis on recent information and ignore longer-term trends.
* Overconfidence - investors may overestimate their ability to predict the market and make riskier investments.
* Social influence - investors may be influenced by the actions of others in their social network or by media coverage
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Hot-Hand Fallacy during a Bubble
- The hot-hand fallacy is a cognitive bias that leads investors to believe that a series of successful investments is indicative of future success, even if it may be due to luck or randomness.
- During a financial bubble, investors may become overconfident and continue to make investments based on the assumption that their previous success will continue. This can lead to over-investment in a particular asset, creating a bubble that is not sustainable in the long run.
- The hot-hand fallacy can lead to irrational decision-making, as investors fail to recognize that their previous successes may not be predictive of future outcomes. This can result in significant losses when the bubble eventually bursts and the underlying asset’s value plummets.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Irrational Exuberance
- In his book “Irrational Exuberance,” Robert Shiller coined the term to describe the tendency of investors to become overly optimistic during economic booms, leading to a financial bubble.
- Shiller argues that this exuberance can cause investors to ignore risks and make irrational investment decisions, leading to a bubble that eventually bursts, causing significant losses.
- The concept of irrational exuberance is particularly relevant during periods of rapid economic growth, where investors can become overly confident and lose their ability to accurately assess the risks involved in investments.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Prospect Theory
Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky) argues investors make irrational choices during financial bubbles by:
* Framing decisions around gains vs. losses: They overvalue potential profits (e.g., “This stock could double!”) and downplay risks (overweighting gains).
* Loss aversion: Fear of losses outweighs desire for gains, leading to:
* Risk-taking: Chasing high returns (e.g., buying overvalued assets).
* Holding too long: Refusing to sell declining assets to avoid “locking in” losses.
* Result: Overconfidence and herd behavior inflate bubbles. When the bubble bursts, loss-averse investors panic, deepening crashes (e.g., 2008 housing crisis).
Key insight: Emotions distort rational risk assessment, fueling instability.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Market Rigging
- Manipulating the market to make a gain at the expense of others.
- Eg. Insider trading - using confidential information to buy or sell shares to your advantage. Causes misallocation of resources
- For example if high profits of a firm are about to be announced, those with inside information can buy the shares first before the information is public
- Banks can also collude to fix interest rates. (RBS and Barclays)
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Asymmetric Information
Occurs when there is imbalance in information between agents. For example, financial markets often use complex information – a borrower (such as a small business) has better information on whether they can afford to repay a loan than the lender.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Insider Information
Insider information is confidential, non-public data (e.g., mergers, earnings) that unfairly benefits traders. Using it (insider trading) is illegal, as it distorts market fairness, leading to fines, jail, or reputational harm. Laws prohibit exploiting undisclosed info to protect equal investor access.
Key: Unethical advantage → legal penalties.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Where does Asymmetric Information appear in the Banking System
- Credit risk: Banks may have incomplete information about the creditworthiness of borrowers, which can lead to risky lending decisions. This can result in loan defaults and financial losses for the bank.
- Rating agencies: Banks rely on rating agencies to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers and investments, but these agencies may not always have complete or accurate information. This can lead to inaccurate ratings and further misinformation in the market.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Asymmetric Information in Insurance
- Adverse selection: Insurers may not have complete information about the riskiness of policyholders, which can lead to higher premiums or lower coverage. Policyholders may also have an incentive to conceal information about their risk level, leading to more adverse selection.
- Moral hazard: Insurance may lead to increased risk-taking by policyholders, since they are shielded from the full costs of their actions. For example, a driver with collision insurance may drive more recklessly than one without insurance.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is a Moral Hazard
Moral hazard exists in a market where an individual or organisation takes greater risks than they should do because they know that they are either covered by insurance, or that a government will protect them from any damage incurred as a result of those risks. For example, creditors might be insured from risk by prospects of a government (state) bail-out.
Bail-outs may encourage risker behaviour
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is Financial Crisis
A financial crisis is a major disturbance / shock to financial markets, associated typically with falling asset prices and insolvency amongst debtors and intermediaries, which ramifies throughout the financial system, disrupting the market’s capacity to allocate financial capital.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the 5 types of Financial Crisis
- Currency crisis when a fixed exchange rate regime collapses, or a currency goes into a free-fall (depreciating rapidly)
- External debt crisis – when a country cannot attract the capital needed to finance a current account deficit
- Sovereign debt crisis – when a government cannot afford to pay the interest on their existing debts
- Banking crisis – when stability of banking system is low leading to a sharp rise in savings deposits and possible run-on banks
- Broad financial crisis – which combines elements of all the above
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are some examples of recent financial crisis
- The Venezuelan crisis (ongoing) - an economic collapse characterized by hyperinflation, food and medicine shortages, and political instability.
- The Turkish currency crisis (2018) - a sharp decline in the value of the Turkish lira, caused by economic mismanagement and political tensions with the United States.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are some examples of recent banking crisis
- USA financial crisis (2007-2008) - known as the “global financial crisis,” was caused by a collapse in the housing market and a wave of mortgage defaults.
- Greek banking crisis (2012-2015) - caused by the country’s debt crisis and the imposition of strict austerity measures, leading to a run on the banks and a loss of confidence in the Greek banking system.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the Main Causes of Financial Crises
- Financial market failures / behavioural finance
- “Irrational exuberance” among investors – see the work of Robert Shiller
- Increased complexity arising from financial innovation – such as mortgage bonds
- The Minsky Hypothesis – where “financial stability breeds instability”
- Macroeconomic and financial policy failures
- Unintended consequences of financial deregulation as a supply-side policy
- Banks too big to fail? Ever-riskier behaviour due to moral hazard
- Failures of credit ratings agencies in pricing risk accurately
- Structural changes in the global economy including economic imbalances including global savings glut and extended period of low /negative real interest rates
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What triggered the USA Subprime Mortgage Crisis in the early 2000s?
US Financial crisis
Many US banks began offering mortgages to subprime borrowers by relaxing lending standards. This led to a rapid rise in housing prices followed by mass defaults as the market collapsed.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How did the issuance of subprime mortgages affect housing prices?
US Financial crisis
The increased issuance of subprime mortgages drove housing prices up rapidly; however, when the market reversed, the high prices and defaults contributed to a major financial collapse.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What were the key contributing factors to the subprime crisis?
US Financial crisis
The crisis was fueled by:
* Relaxed lending standards and packaging risky mortgages into securities.
* Speculation in the housing market, leading to overvaluation of properties.
* The use of complex financial instruments paired with a lack of transparency in financial markets.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What deregulation event contributed to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2010?
US Financial crisis
The repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which allowed banks to engage in riskier behaviors by mixing commercial and investment banking, was a significant factor.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
How did easy credit help trigger the Global Financial Crisis
US Financial crisis
Low interest rates and loose lending standards created an environment rich in easy credit, which led to a flood of subprime mortgages and toxic loans, ultimately fueling a housing bubble.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What role did credit rating agencies play in the Global Financial Crisis?
US Financial crisis
Credit rating agencies, such as Moody’s and S&P, gave high ratings to junk securities—often backed by subprime mortgages—misleading investors about their safety.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the primary function of credit rating agencies
US Financial crisis
They assess the creditworthiness of companies, governments, and other entities by assigning ratings (from AAA to D) that indicate the likelihood of debt repayment, which investors use to gauge risk.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the main criticisms levied against credit rating agencies during the Global Financial Crisis?
US Financial crisis
They were criticized for:
* Overrating subprime mortgage-backed securities, which later were downgraded.
* Conflicts of interest due to payment by the banks issuing the securities.
* A slow reaction in downgrading risky securities as the housing market deteriorated.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Why is the method of payment for credit rating agencies considered problematic?
US Financial crisis
Because the agencies are paid by the entities they rate, this can create a conflict of interest and may incentivize inflated ratings to preserve business relationships.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Reasons why commercial banks such as Northern Rock can fail
- Losses: If people default on loans, a bank will suffer losses that erodes capital reserves and reduces its ability to lend. Investors may be unwilling to cover losses.
- Liquidity: If a bank sees a sudden loss of confidence from depositors and investors, they may struggle to obtain fresh funding in the interbank market and face liquidity problems. This can cause a run on the bank.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
In the context of financial markets, what is meant by “systemic risk”?
Systemic risk is when the failure of a single financial institution leads to a contagion effect that spreads throughout the financial system and beyond, affecting the stability of the system perhaps creating a wider crisis.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Possible consequences for the economy of bank failures
- Credit crunch - where businesses and households find it difficult to obtain loans, which can in turn lead to a decline in capital investment by businesses and consumption causing weaker real economic growth.
- Fiscal effects - Rising national debt if commercial banks are wholly or partially bailed-out by the government. This can lead to higher interest rates on bonds & more expensive mortgages and a medium-term rise in taxes
4.4 - The Financial Sector
One argument for bailing out commercial banks who fail + One argument for letting banks fail
For
* A bail-out can limit wider systemic risks and mitigate the negative consequences for the real economy. It can prevent negative externalities.
Against
* Letting banks fail can promote market discipline and prevent moral hazard. It encourages creative destruction as new banks and banking models replace failed institutions.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Distinguish between credit risk and liquidity risk for a bank
- Credit risk is the risk that a borrower will fail to repay their debt (bad debts)
- Liquidity risk is when a bank does not have enough cash or liquid assets to repay depositors and other creditors if they want their money back.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the definition of a central bank
A central bank is the monetary authority and major regulatory bank in a country. A central bank is responsible for monetary policy and maintaining financial stability.
Examples of central banks
- Bank of England (UK)
- European Central Bank (ECB) for all member nations of the Euro Area
- United States Federal Reserve (The Fed)
- Bank of Japan (BOJ)
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are the main roles of Central Banks
- Setting interest rates: Central banks adjust interest rates to control inflation and promote economic growth.
- Regulating banks: They regulate banks to ensure they are financially sound and to protect depositors.
- Maintaining financial stability: They act as a lender of last resort, providing liquidity to financial institutions in times of crisis.
- Issuing currency: They are responsible for issuing and managing the country’s currency. This might involve operating with a managed floating exchange rate.
- Conducting research: They conduct research and provide advice to policymakers
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the Base interest rate
The main interest rate set by a nation’s central bank. This is the rate of interest charged to commercial banks if they must borrow from the central bank when short of liquidity. Market interest rates often take their cue from changes in the Base Interest Rate.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are some factors considered when setting Base Rate
- Rate of growth of real GDP and the estimated size of the output gap
- Forecasts for price inflation
- Rate of growth of wages and other business costs
- Movements in a country’s exchange rate
- Rate of growth of asset prices such as house prices
- Movements in consumer and business confidence
- External factors such as global energy prices and inflation in other countries
- Financial market conditions including the rate of growth of credit / money
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the Lender of Last Resort Function
Lender of last resort is a role central banks play in times of financial distress. When other financial institutions are unable to provide loans, the central bank steps in to lend money to banks and other financial institutions. This prevents liquidity crises and helps to maintain financial stability.
- Emergency lending: Central banks provide emergency loans to financial institutions in times of crisis to prevent their collapse and limit systemic risk.
- Discount window: They also provide short-term loans to banks at a slightly higher interest rate than the market rate. This is known as the discount window.
- Collateral requirements: Central banks require collateral from financial institutions as a condition for lending. This helps to mitigate the risk of default.
- Reputation: Central banks are known as the lender of last resort due to their ability to provide loans in times of crisis, which can help to prevent financial panics.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What are two examples of Lender of Last Resort
- In 2012, the European Central Bank (ECB) provided emergency loans to banks in the eurozone to help stabilize the region’s financial system.
- In 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks around the world acted as lenders of last resort to support their economies. For example, the Bank of England provided emergency loans to UK businesses and the Reserve Bank of India provided liquidity to Indian banks.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What roles does the central bank have as banker to the government
- Issuing government bonds: Central banks can issue and sell government bonds on behalf of the government to finance its budget and borrow money.
- Managing government debt: Central banks can help governments manage their debt by buying and selling government bonds in the market, helping to stabilize prices and maintain liquidity.
- Providing advice: Central banks often provide economic and financial advice to governments, helping them to make informed decisions about fiscal policy and other issues.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Two roles of the Central Bank in the United Kingdom
- Operation of monetary policy – setting base interest rates to meet the inflation target (2%). No direct intervention in the exchange rate – the UK operates a free-floating currency
- Lender of last resort to the financial system during a liquidity crisis / credit crunch.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Two possible consequences for financial markets of a large increase in the size of quantitative easing (QE) by the UK central bank.
- Lower interest rates: By purchasing large amounts of government bonds, the central bank increases demand for these assets, which pushes up their prices and reduces their yields. This can lead to a fall in mortgage interest rates and corporate bond interest rates
- Currency depreciation: Another effect of a large increase in QE by the UK central bank might be a depreciation of the currency. QE increases the money supply and some of this extra liquidity will leave the UK economy – sterling is sold – causing the pound to fall
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
- Regulation and Supervision: The FCA is responsible for regulating commercial banks, investment firms, insurance companies, asset managers, and consumer credit providers. It sets regulatory rules and standards for these firms, conducts prudential supervision, and ensures that they comply with applicable regulations.
- Consumer Protection: The FCA focuses on protecting consumers by ensuring that financial products and services are fair, transparent, and not misleading. It enforces rules on consumer protection, including those related to the sale of financial products, conduct of business, and treating customers fairly.
- Market Supervision: The FCA actively monitors financial markets to identify risks and emerging issues
4.4 - The Financial Sector
What is the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA)
- Prudential Supervision: The PRA is responsible for prudential supervision of banks, building societies, credit unions, insurers, and designated investment firms. Prudential supervision involves assessing and ensuring the financial soundness of these institutions to prevent financial instability.
- Setting and Enforcing Prudential Standards: The PRA establishes prudential standards and requirements that financial institutions must adhere to. These standards encompass capital adequacy, liquidity, risk management, governance, and other aspects of an institution’s financial stability. The PRA enforces these standards to ensure that financial firms maintain appropriate levels of financial resources to withstand economic and financial shocks.
4.4 - The Financial Sector
Ways in which financial regulators can reduce the risk of commercial bank failures in a country such as the UK
- Prudential regulation: Require banks to maintain adequate capital to absorb potential losses and withstand adverse economic conditions. Use of stress tests.
- Direct interventions: Setting maximum loan to valuation ratios in the mortgage market. Increasing the cash-to-deposits ratio for a commercial bank.