4.1 - International economics Content Flashcards
4.1 - International economics
What is globalisation?
Growing interdependence of countries and the rapid rate of change in the world
4.1 - International economics
Define interdependence
The integration of local, regional, national economies into a single international market.
4.1 - International economics
How have economies integrated?
Free trade of goods and services
Free movement of FoP
Free exchange of tech + intellectual capital
4.1 - International economics
What are the 6 restrictions to globalisation? (PATS QE)
- Protectionism
- Administrative barriers
- Tariffs
- Subsidies to domestic industry
- Quotas
- Embargoes
4.1 - International economics
What does trade liberalisation mean?
Reduced protectionism
4.1 - International economics
What is a synonym for globalisation?
Free trade
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on consumers?
- ↑ Choice - range of global products from global producers
- ↓ Prices - more competition and production is being switched from high cost to low cost locations
- Loss of culture
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation for workers?
- Job loss in non-comp. industries
- Inc. employment in comp. industries
- ↑ Migration - Many migrants have moved for better economic opportunities and standard of living. Migration can fill skill gaps in the economy, raise productivity, reduce wage costs and increase competitiveness. But native workers might see migrants as lowering wage rates due to competition in the job market. Might strain the welfare state. Immobility of labour can be seen as market/government failure.
- ↓ Wages - have to compete on global scale - so unskilled wages go down as more supply. Skilled workers likely unaffected as less of them
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on firms?
- Specialisation & Interdependency: Firms become highly specialised and increasingly dependent on intricate global supply chains.
- Cost Advantages & Market Expansion: Access to cheaper labour and materials reduces costs while opening new markets, leading to economies of scale and enhanced competition.
- Footloose Capitalism: Firms strategically relocate production across borders to exploit comparative advantages and maximise profits.
- Tax Avoidance: Companies engage in practices like transfer pricing and relocating headquarters to low-tax jurisdictions to minimise tax liabilities.
4.1 - International economics
How does an increase in globalisation affect eco growth?
Increases injections, FDI, increases Real GDP
(However could negatively effect environmnent)
4.1 - International economics
What are the diagrammatical effects of globalisation?
A reduction in price from P to P1
Increased overall Qd
(However, reduction in domestic Qs)
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on firms?
- Diversification of supply chains.
- ↘︎ Risk
- Exploitation (divide labour market).
- ↗︎ Profits
- Firms who unable to compete internationally will lose out.
4.1 - International economics
What are the characteristics of globalisation?
- Increased trade of goods and services across national boundaries.
- Increased movement of labour between countries. (migration)
- Increased movement of capital between countries
- Increased interchange of technology and intellectual capital
- Increasing connectivity of people, communities and business through networks
- Creation of global supply chains & new trade and investment routes in the world economy
Leads to greater specialisation and interdependence.
4.1 - International economics
What are the causes of globalisation
- Advances in technology, IT, transport: Enable seamless global communication and remote work capabilities.
- Trade liberalisation: Reduced protectionism through institutions like the WTO and policies from the Washington Consensus.
- TNCs: Leverage economies of scale, produce in lower-cost countries, and establish global brands.
- Improved transportation: Containerisation and large port infrastructure lower shipping costs and enhance global trade efficiency.
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems for Ireland cutting taxes so low to attract TNCs.
- Other countries like France and Germany are not happy - Joseph Stiglitz accused Ireland of ‘Stealing revenues’
- The United states cut corporate tax to 21% down from 35% to lure American countries back.
-> Game theory suggests that if all countries cut taxes, then everyone is left with lower tax revenues.
-> Countries are ‘footloose’ meaning that they might leave Ireland if tax incentives change - Distorts official statistics - makes growth appear higher than it actually is.
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of globalisation on governments?
- Government now have to take a more ‘entreprenurial role’ in the economy, investing and intervening in order to improve a country’s international competitiveness.
- Lowering taxes, giving subsidies, spending on education and reserach.
- Some governments forced to concede to the power of multinationals - Uber withdrew operations in Tanzania after government tried to regulate fares and cut comissions.
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of globalisation on the environment?
- Industrialisation and fossil fuel use have significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions, with a ~50% rise since 1990. Global temperatures could rise by 2.5ºC (UNEP estimates).
- Multinationals exploit weak climate regulations, worsening environmental damage.
- Rich nations invest in greener technologies, while deforestation (e.g., Brazil) persists.
4.1 - International economics
Discuss two macroeconomic policies, apart from protectionism, that a government could use to reduce the negative effects of globalisation. (12) (2018)
- One way to tackle the ‘low wages’, ‘insecure employment and inequalities’ created by globalisation is by investing in education and training.
- Investing will improve human capital and make workers more productive. This means that they can be more competitive against foreign competition and recieve higher wages. Less likely to be undercut.
- This will help solve the ‘low wages’ and striking inequalities that have been created by globalisation.
- Evaluation - Time lag. Education and training will take a long time, and might not be an option for many e.g. the elderly. Also conflicts with the government budget
- Another way to tackle the ‘relative poverty’ and ‘striking inequalities’ created by globalisation is to introduce a more redistributive tax system.
- Tax corporations and MNCs like Google, and give them to lower paid workers. This increases aggregate demand as lower paid workers have a migher MPC and reduces unemployment.
- Higher wages and living standards therefore reduces the inequality and poverty created by globalisation.
- Evaluation - Might be counterproductive because MNCs are ‘footlose’, it means that they will move to Ireland or Bermuda. This results in a net welfare loss
4.1 - International economics
Why do improvements in technology mean globalisation?
- Easier to transport goods/services/capital across national boundaries - countries can focus on producing and exporting goods - increased specialisation and interdependence.
- Technology means that capital can move across the world
- People can work remotely.
- Rapid share of information.
4.1 - International economics
What has caused deglobalisation?
- Protectionism: Governments might implement protectionist measures such as tariffs, quotas, and trade barriers to shield domestic industries from foreign competition.
- Economic Shocks: Economic downturns or recessions can lead countries to focus more on domestic priorities and reduce their reliance on global trade and investment.
- Changing Trade Agreements: Countries might renegotiate or withdraw from trade agreements that were previously promoting globalization.
- Environmental Concerns: Growing concerns about climate change and environmental sustainability might lead to policies that prioritize local production and reduce the carbon footprint associated with long-distance trade.
- Health Crises: Global health crises, such as pandemics disrupt travel, trade, and supply chains.
4.1 - International economics
What are the drawbacks of globalisation
- Brain drain: Skilled workers migrate from LEDCs, reducing human capital in their home countries.
- Exploitation of cheap labour: Workers in LEDCs often face poor wages and working conditions.
- Increased unemployment: Domestic industries struggle due to competition from imports.
- Increased inequality: Widening relative poverty within developed economies as globalisation benefits are unevenly distributed.
- Environmental damage: Industrialisation and resource overuse harm ecosystems.
What are the benefits of Globalisation
[5]
- Cheaper goods and services for consumers
- More competition in consumer markets - incentivises innovation and cost cutting where possible
- Reduction in absolute poverty rates
- Gains from specialization of factors of production
- Gains from improved labor mobility - helping to relieve skilled labor shortages and promoting the sharing of ideas from a more diverse workforce which can then promote innovation.
4.1 - International economics
Why is tax avoidance bad?
- Means that resources can be exploited
- Bad for the government budget balance.
- Welfare loss - Western conglomerates siphon off profits to tax havens, whilst developing countries are unable to fund infrastructure, education. Keeps people in poverty.
- Erosion of sovereignty e.g. Uber suspended operations in Tanzania after they tried to regulate fairs
4.1 - International economics
How can the government reduce the negative impacts of globalisation?
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantages of globalisation for high income countries
- Job Displacement: Operations moving to low-wage countries or rising competition may leave workers unemployed.
- Income Inequality: Globalisation increases wage gaps between high-skilled and low-skilled workers; the top 1% has seen income share rise by over 3% since the 1980s (IMF).
- Environmental Degradation: Long-distance transportation and resource exploitation drive carbon emissions and pollution.
4.1 - Inernational economics
Disadvantages of globalisation for developing nations
- Economic Dependence: One disadvantage of globalization is that developing nations can become overly dependent on the export of a few key commodities or industries, leaving them vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand and prices.
- Exploitation of Labour: As multinational corporations seek to lower costs, they may outsource production to countries with lower labour standards, wages, and working conditions.
- Environmental Degradation: As companies seek out the cheapest sources of raw materials and production, they may exploit natural resources and pollute local environments. This threatens the sustainable growth of many poorer countries
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of globalisation for high income countries
- Increased access to foreign markets: Globalization has allowed the UK to expand its markets beyond its national borders. For instance, the value of UK exports increased from £196 billion in 2000 to £613 billion in 2019.
- Attraction of foreign investment: FDI in the UK increased from £62 billion in 2000 to £1,033 billion in 2019, reflecting the country’s ability to attract and benefit from international investment. This has an impact on AS and long run aggregate supply.
- Improved productivity and innovation: A Study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that exposure to international competition has driven innovation in UK firms, leading to increased factor productivity and competitiveness.
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of globalisation for developing nations
- Increased foreign investment: An increase in foreign investment in developing countries, providing a source of capital, technology, and expertise. FDI inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa increased from $10 bn in 2000 to $46 bn in 2020.
- Expanded access to global markets: According to the World Bank, the value of exports of goods and services from Sub-Saharan Africa increased from $79 billion in 2000 to $338 billion in 2019, reflecting the growth in global trade.
- Increased access to technology and knowledge: Access to new technologies and knowledge from around the world can drive economic growth and development. Cell phone penetration in Sub-Saharan Africa increased from 3% in 2000 to 44% in 2020, reflecting the growth in technology adoption in the region.
4.1 - International economics
When does comparative advantage occur?
When one country can produce a good / service at a lower OC cost than another country.
4.1 - International economics
What does absolute advantage mean?
When an economy can produce a greater total of goods for the same quantity of inputs.
4.1 - International economics
What does the theory of reciprocal comparative advantage state?
This occurs when two countries have absolute advantage in different products.
Countries should specialise in their advantage and import the good they don’t have advantage in.
4.1 - International economics
When does reciprocal comparative advantage occur?
When two countries, with absolute advantages in different products trade with each other
4.1 - International economics
What is an evaluation to theory of reciprocal comparative advantage?
Theory of comparative advantage - even if a country has absolute advantage in all goods, trade can still benefit if there is a difference in the OC
4.1 - International economics
How can a resource-poor country with no absolute advantages gain from trade?
As long as a country has a comparative advantage in some resource (as long as it faces a lower opportunity cost than another country for that resource), then it can benefit from trade.
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of Specialization and Trade in an International Context
- Efficiency and Productivity: Specialization allows countries to focus on producing what they are most efficient at, leading to increased productivity and economic growth.
- Consumer Benefits: International trade provides consumers with a wider variety of goods and services at competitive prices, improving their standard of living.
- Resource Allocation: It enables efficient resource allocation as countries can allocate resources to industries where they have a comparative advantage, reducing wastage.
- Economies of Scale: Specialization often leads to larger production scales, which can result in economies of scale, further reducing production costs.
- International Cooperation: Trade fosters peaceful international relations and cooperation as countries become interdependent.
- Theory of comparative advantage states countries should specialise in goods with the lowest OC - (This will boost economy + lead to greater output globally).
4.1 - International economics
What are the disadvantages of specialisation to trade?
- Countries could become over-dependent. (if one export fails, collapse. e.g. Manchester, shipbuilding). Dutch disease.
- High interdependence - trade prevented e.g. wars = massive problems.
- Job Displacement: Specialization can lead to job displacement in industries where a country does not have a comparative advantage, causing unemployment and social issues.
- Dependency: Over-reliance on imports for critical goods can make a country vulnerable to supply disruptions or price fluctuations.
- Income Inequality: While trade can benefit a nation as a whole, it may exacerbate income inequality if the gains are not equitably distributed.
- Environmental Concerns: Specialization in resource-intensive industries may lead to environmental degradation if not regulated properly.
- Trade Imbalances: Persistent trade deficits can lead to indebtedness and economic instability for some countries.
- Loss of Domestic Control: Relying on imports for essential goods can compromise a nation’s control over its own economy and security.
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of a country that lost comparative advantage and its consequences:
Italy lost comparative advantage for manufacturing, forced to move from a secondary to a tertiary economy.
4.1 - International economics
Evidence how trade liberalisation can lead to eco development:
Efficient use of resources for comparative advantage.
Export-led growth. e.g. Singapore and South Korea.
4.1 - International economics
Give a diagram for the theory of comparative advantage:
Even though USA has an absolute adv. in both machines + food, OC of the two countries are different.
Theory of comparative adv. states countries should specialise where they have the lowest OC.
USA - machines, G. - food.
4.1 - International economics
Why do countries still trade even if one country has an absolute advantage?
Because they may still be able to produce a good at a lower relative opportunity cost.
This means that both countries can focus on what they have a lower opportunity cost in and increase total output.
4.1 - International economics
How could the negative impacts of primary product dependence be evaluated? Why might primary product dependence not be so bad?
- LEDCs may have a comparative advantage in primary products - Therefore should continue to develop in areas which they are strongest - Argument given by the Bad Samaritans
- Some rich countries have been able to use primary products to develop - Saudi Arabia and oil. - Primary product revenue should be used to reinvest into manufacturing.
- Forward markets can be used to fix prices in advanced to reduce volatility and risk.
- Not all primary products have a low YED - Diamonds in Botswana.
- Primary products rose steeply in price between 2000-2008 while prices for manufactured goods was falling. They also rose post-pandemic.
4.1 - International economics
What are the assumptions of the theory of comparative advantage
- Ignores transport costs - Might eliminate comparative cost advantage.
- Ignores economies of scale.
- Assumes there are only two economies producing two goods.
- Assumes that traded goods are homogenous.
- Assumes perfect factor mobility.
- Assumes no trade barriers
- Assumes perfect information
4.1 - International economics
What are the limitations of comparative advantage? List them.
- Transport costs are not considered
- Strategic industries - risky to be reliant on another country
- Not just 2 countries in the world producing goods
- Infant industries might be damaged
4.1 - International economics
What are the 4 factors influencing the pattern of trade?
- Trading Blocs - within blocs members have reduced trade barriers so more trade between them
- Exchange rate - changes in exchange rate mean changes in competitiveness of exports and amount of imports, SPICED/WIDEC
- Emerging economies - they are major exporters of manufactured goods and services, altering global trade dynamics
- Comparative advantage - countries exports g/s that they have comparative advantage in and import those they have a disadvantage in. This drives international trade patterns
(TEEC)
Also
* Tarrif and non tarrif barriers, FDI, changes in competitiveness and inflation rates.
4.1 - International economics
What is trade diversion?
When the patterns of trade are changed, due to blocs.
(Reduced benefits from specialisation).
4.1 - International economics
How has the UK pattern of trade chanaged in the past 60 years?
- UK has increasingly hada comparative advantage in services rather than good.
-> Usually financial services. - Foreign trade has increased as a proportion of GDP. Exports are now around 30% of national income.
- The UK does earn money from North Sea Oil.
- EU has become main trading partner since joining the EEC
4.1 - International economics
What does terms of trade measure?
The rate of exchange of one product for another when two countries trade.
4.1 - International economics
What does ToT tell us in terms of the quantity of imports and exports?
The quantity of exports that need to be sold to buy a given quantity of imports.
4.1 - International economics
Give the equation for terms of trade:
Avg export prices index / Avg import prices index x 100.
(Remember X over M).
4.1 - International economics
What Terms of Trade (ToT) does the UK aim for?
Increasing, increased injections into economy.
4.1 - International economics
How do we know how X and M prices affect ToT?
Use equation ToT = avg.Xprices/ avg.M prices.
If X prices ↑, ToT ↑.
If M prices ↓, ToT ↑.
4.1 - International economics
What affects ToT in the SR / LR?
SR - anything that affects price
LR - anything that affects productivity
4.1 - International economics
What is the Prebisch-singer hypothesis?
In the LR, the price of primary products declines compared to manufactured products.
(Terms of trade for primary products tends to fall in the LR).
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis:
Profit margins for chocolate are better than cocoa.
4.1 - International economics
What is a synonym to ‘Dutch disease’?
Primary product dependency.
4.1 - International economics
When does Dutch disease occur?
When rapid development of one sector of the economy precipitates a decline in other (non-resources) sectors.
(Other industries don’t take off, Rostow’s model doesn’t occur).
4.1 - International economics
What are the factors influencing the terms of trade?
- A change in exchange rate. spiced/widec
- Inflation
- A change in demand for imports and exports
- Changing incomes affect pattens of demand.
- Changes in productivity
- Incomes
- PRIMARY PRODUCT DEPEDENCY
- Protectionism - tarrifs increase prices so terms of trade worsen
4.1 - International economics
What two things would cause an improvement in the terms of trade?
Falling import prices
Rising export prices
4.1 - International economics
Give examples of what would cause an improvement in the terms of trade.
Inflation - would increase export prices.
Tarrifs - would increase import prices.
An appreciation in the exchange rate
4.1 - International economics
Give examples of what would cause a deterioration in the terms of trade?
Higher productivity
A weaker exchange rate
4.1 - International economics
Assume that demand for imports and exports are price inelastic. There is an improvement in the terms of trade. What would happen to:
- Import expenditure
- Export revenue
- Affect on the overall economy?
- Would lead to a reduction in import expenditure
- A rise in export revenue
- Increase in net trade and an improvement in the balance of payments.
4.1 - International economics
When is an improvement in the terms of trade a good thing?
- If imports are price inelastic - consumers are not responsive to the fall in price so spend less on imports
- And exports are price inelastic - other countries continue to buy exports despite the increase in price.
4.1 - International economics
When would an improvement in the terms of trade be a bad thing?
- If demand for imports imports are elastic
- And demand for exports are price elastic
4.1 - International economics
Assume that demand for imports and exports are price inelastic. There is an deterioration in the terms of trade. What would happen to
- Import expenditure
- Export revenue
- Affect on the overall economy?
- Increase in import expenditure
- Decrease in export revenue
- Bad for current account balance
4.1 - International economics
Assume that demand for imports and exports are price elastic. There is an deterioration in the terms of trade. What would happen to
- Import expenditure
- Export revenue
- Affect on the overall economy?
- Fall in import spending
- Increased export revenue
- There is an improvement on the current accounta balance of payments
4.1 - International economics
Textbook question - Discuss whether the changes in the terms of trade between 2012 and 2014 are likely to have led to an improvement in the current account position on the balance of payments for Australia (10)
- Likely will be bad for the current account - commidities are very price inelastic.
- This would mean as prices fall, export revenues will also fall
- This means a deterioration in trade balances and cut in aggregate demand.
- Evaluation- Commodities are very volatile. Likely future increase. Longrun/short run.
- Or, depends on what is happening with imports.
4.1 - International economics
Why might a decline in the terms of trade a problem?
- For every import, a country has to export more
- A decline in terms of trade reduces the ability to import goods.
- Less purchasing power means worse standards of living
- Can make it harder to pay foreign debt.
4.1 - International economics
Why might a decline in terms of trade be not such a bad thing?
- Might make exports more competitive - better for balance of payments.
- The impact of a decline in the terms of trade will depend on the elasticity of demand. If demand is elastic, the lower price of exports will cause a bigger % increase in demand.
- Some LDC’s have seen an improvement in terms of trade because of rising price of commodities and food post-2008. It is not always LDCs who see a decline in the terms of trade.
- It is important to distinguish between a short-term decline in terms of trade and a long-term decline. A long-term decline is more serious for reflecting a fall in living standards.
4.1 - International economics
What is a trading bloc?
A group of countries with trade agreements.
4.1 - International economics
Outline the 7 different forms of trading blocs:
Regional Trading Bloc.
Free Trade Area
Preferential Trade Area
Customs union.
Common / single markets.
Monetary unions.
Economic union.
4.1 - International economics
Define a Regional Trading Bloc:
A group of countries in a geographical region that protect themselves from imports from non-members.
(Also reduction / elimination of internal tariffs).
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of a regional trading bloc:
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
4.1 - International economics
What are the benefits of regional trade agreements?
- Trade creation - Makes it easier for countries to trade within the bloc and specialise - Exploit comparative advantage. Economies of scale from new markets. Greater competition
- More FDI - MNCs can invest in the free trade area as they can avoid tariffs and other trade restrictions.
4.1 - International economics
What are the costs of regional trade agreements?
- Trade diversion - Trade is diverted away from former partners - when the UK joined the EU it began trading less with the commonwealth. might lead to overall fall in economic output.
- Country might be better off outside - they can sign lots of bi-lateral agreements
- Might make developing countries worse off - Do not have enough economies of scale so their infant industries die off.
- Less efficient use of world resources - Trading blocs distort comparative advantage because they entain the use of trade restrctions - Might be more effective to persue global free trade in the WTO.
- Increased negative externalities of production, resource depletion & environmental damage
4.1 - International economics
Define Free Trade Area
Reduced tariff barriers on all goods coming from other members.
(Members allowed to impose restrictions on those outside the FTA)
4.1 - International economics
Define preferential trading areas:
Reduced barriers on some goods
(Used to protect domestic industries)
4.1 - International economics
Define customs union
The removal of tariff barriers between members and acceptance of common external tariff against non-members.
May also have preferential import tariffs rates that apply to trade agreements with the customs union has entered into with other countries or groupings of countries
4.1 - International economics
Define a Common / single market:
No barriers to trade between members - freedom of asset / factor mobility.
Common external tariffs on imported goods from outside.
4.1 - International economics
What do common markets require, to succeed?
Harmonisation of macroeconomic policies e.g. common rules regarding monopoly powers, anti-competitive practices and the removal of custom posts.
(Best example is the EU).
4.1 - International economics
How do common markets attempt to create as integreted an economy as possible? (4)
- No customs posts between countries - Just as goods and people are free to travel between Manchester and London, they should be as free to travel between London and Milan
- Identical product standards - The existence of individual national safety standards on cars, for instance, is a barrier to trade just as it would be if cars sold in London had to meet different safety regulations as cars in Bristol
- Harmonisation of taxes- If the tax on the same car is £2000 more in the UK than in France, then UK residents will buy their cars in France and drive them over -> distorting pattern of trade
- A common currency - Having to buy foreign currency is a barrier to trade, hence there should be a common currency as there is in the UK
4.1 - International economics
Pros of joining EU single market
- Import-tariffs free access to a single market of nearly 500 million people - Opportunity to exploit economies of scale – leading lower long run unit costs and higher profits
- Easier access to foreign direct investment - Inward FDI can lift trend rates of economic growth and raise factor productivity
- Access to EU structural funds - Investment helps improve infrastructure and potential output (long run aggregate supply
- Better access to EU capital markets - Eu companies can more easily raise extra investment funds from bond and capital markets
- Discipline of intense competition from being inside the EU single market - Businesses must become more cost efficient + improve their dynamic efficiency to remain competitive
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantages of joining the EU single market
- ‘lack of control’ over immigration
- Fairness/equity of subsidies + grants
- Competition -> loss of domestic jobs
- Profits/wealth in capital markets
4.1 - International economics
What is a monetary union?
Countries with a single currency and exchange rates monitored by a central bank.
4.1 - International economics
Give an example of a monetary union and describe what these entail:
EU - Eurozone.
(Results in loss of monetary policy for members).
4.1 - International economics
What are the advantages of a monetary union?
- Trade creation - Specialise, Comparative Advantage.
- Savings on transaction costs - No need to convert currencies.
- Greater certainty for firms - Fluctuations are less likely. Increases business confidence. Firms do not have to worry about unfavourable currency fluctuations. For example, after the mini budget the £ fell to almost parity with the dollar.
- Increased economies of scale - New markets are unlocked, firms can expand and reduce costs.
- Price stability
- Currency risk – Euro is more stable than smaller currencies. Reduced currency risk makes is easier for smaller countries to borrow money
- Trade – Euro enhances the gains from being in the single market – e.g. it encourages more cross border trade in goods and services
- Investment – Membership of Euro is likely to stimulate inward investment e.g. in industries such as tourism, financial services, car-making
- Competition – Euro increases price transparency and market competition which then helps consumers to find products at better prices
4.1 - International economics
What are the disadvantages of a monetary union?
- Loss of control over monetary policy - countries can’t use monetary policy in order to adopt to local problems. One sized fits all.
- Loss of exchange rate flexibility
- Reduced control over fiscal policy - 3 % limit on budget deficit and 60% limit on national debt or face a fine
- Transition costs - Adjustment costs when switching currencies
- Makes countries excessively interdependent - Contagion.
4.1 - International economics
What are the conditions necessary for the success of a monetary union?
- Similar trade cycles - So that interest rates synergise. E.g. interest rate rises to curb inflation in a booming Germany will not help Spain if it is in recession.
- Mobility of factors of production - Reduces the impact of shocks, as worker can migrate to other countries.
- Mobility of finance - There should be complete mobility of finance with prices & wages free to adjust based on market conditions.
- Automatic fiscal transfers - Some form of automatic fiscal transfer is needed for countries that are doing badly. E.g. Greece and Portugal. This will reudce the need of excahnge rate adjustment, which might have ben the prior policy response.
- Similar economic situation – so interest rate changes have similar effects across the union
4.1 - International economics
What is the objective of the WTO?
To help members use trade to raise living standards and create jobs.
4.1 - International economics
What does the WTO (World Trade Organisation) provide?
Tries to negotiate trade agreements and resolve trade problems.
(By reducing protectionism + ↑ integration).
4.1 - International economics
What are some criticisms of the WTO?
- Allows rich countries to exploit developing countries, paying low wages and making them work in conditions that would be completely unacceptable in the developed world - Glencore in Zambia, DRC
- Is causing environmental disaster as rich countries plunder the poor countries
- Destroys native cultures and replaces it with an American way of life.
- Forces poor countries to lower their barriers to trade whilst rich countries keep theirs
- Gives ownership of the rules of the world trading system to a few rich countries and their multinational companies
4.1 - International economics
Multilateral vs regional trade agreements (WTO
- If the WTO cannot produce multilateral agreements between all member countries then countries will resort to signing ever more regional trade agreements (RTAs)
- RTAs do not produce anywhere near the economic gains that could be achieved by a world trade agreement
- Still arguably better than nothing so long as trade creation > trade diversion
4.1 - International economics
Roles of the WTO
- Conductor – come up with a set of rules that apply to international trade. They also bring countries together at conferences & encourages them to reduce or eliminate protectionist trade barriers between themselves e.g. The Doha Round conferences
- Tribunal role – Settling disputes between members, countries are encouraged to work it out between themselves but sometimes they don’t. Member countries can file a complaint if they believe a trading partner has violated a trade agreement. The WTO will then run a hearing & make a judgement
- Monitor roles – The WTO reviews the trade policies of its members to make sure that WTO rules are being applied fairly and consistently
- Training role - The WTO provides training to government official in (mostly) developing countries, to help them engage in trade with other WTO members.
4.1 - International economics
Define tariffs:
Taxes placed on imports.
4.1 - International economics
Give the tariffs diagram
X and Y represent net welfare loss.
Yellow box represents govt. rev.
4.1 - International economics
What is the key difference between a tariff and a quota?
Welfare loss is greater with quotas, as there is no tax revenue generated by the govt
4.1 - International economics
How does the imposition of a tariff change the quantity supplied (Qs) for domestic producers and world producers?
Qs of domestic producers increases from Q1 to Q4.
Qs of world producers decreases from Q2 to Q3.
4.1 - International economics
What does the imposition of a tariff do to prices?
Increases prices, due to reduced world supply. Reduces QoL for consumers.
However, govt. revenue from tax may improve QoL in LR (hypothecated).
Other eval: Infant industry argument: domestic producers increase producer surplus + increased market share increased job protection in domestic economy.
4.1 - International economics
For tariffs, what is the overall result of the loss in consumer + gain in producer surplus?
Triangles X and Y = net welfare loss.
(Net welfare loss as areas of X and Y larger than revenue).
Reduction in CS larger than increase in PS.
4.1 - International economics
Apart from the net welfare loss, what is another downside to tariffs?
Potential distortion of comparative adv. - as this theory assumes no tariffs.
Tariff alters the cost advantage that countries may have built up through specialisation.
(Another downside is retaliation - need a para to memorise for this one).
4.1 - International economics
On any protectionist diagram, in what conditions do we assume the supply of imports (World supply) is perfectly elastic / horizontal?
When importing country represents a very small proportion of the total demand for the good.
∴ Any protectionist diagram can be evaluated by elasticity of world supply i.e the optimal tariff argument.
4.1 - International economics
What does the optimal tariff argument include?
A country with a large proportion of global trade experiences a smaller price increase when tariffs are imposed.
Reducing the MSC all while govt. benefits from tax rev.
4.1 - International economics
Why does the domestic price increase very little in the optimal tariff argument?
The country with a large proportion of global demand reduces global price (as they import less).
The usual price increase of a tariff is offset by this fall in global prices.
4.1 - International economics
What are the 2 key benefits to the optimal tariff theory?
- Not much increase in domestic price (as share of global demand is sufficiently large for protectionist country).
- Tax revenue for govt. equal to the value previously earned by foreign producers (before the fall in world prices).
4.1 - International economics
For countries that possess a small proportion of global trade what does the world supply look like on a diagram?
Horizontal, perfectly elastic.
4.1 - International economics
How can a tariff actually increase a countries’ welfare?
Optimal tariff theory:
Tariff can actually increase a countries welfare, if the area of tax revenue is larger than the loss in consumer surplus.
(Condition is country must represent large proportion of global demand).
4.1 - International economics
How do we calculate tariff revenue?
Size of tariff x no. of imports.
4.1 - International economics
What is the main evaluation to optimal tariff theory?
Retaliation.
(Countries will retaliate with tariffs that cause domestic country to overcome their portion of DWL).
4.1 - International economics
What is an anti-dumping tariff?
An additional tariff, above normal import tariffs.
4.1 - International economics
What is it called when countries impose escalating tariffs on each other?
A ‘tit for tat’ trade war.
4.1 - International economics
Show the increase in producer surplus on a tariff diagram:
However, there is net welfare loss overall, represented by blue boxes.
4.1 - International economics
Reasons for Restrictions on Free Trade (Protectionism)
- Infant industries - To protect new firms that would be unlikely to succeed at start-up due to the level of global competition. Once established support is removed
- Sunset industries - At the end of the life cycle, these firms are on their way out & the government chooses to support them to help limit the economic damage that would occur if they closed abruptly
- Strategic industries - Industries such as energy, defense & agriculture are essential to self-sufficiency & security. Being reliant on other countries for these creates vulnerabilities for a nation
- Dumping - Dumping is anti-competitive & can harm a country’s industries. Excess output is sold in another country below costs (illegal) or below normal prices in the home market
- Employment - helps fix structural unemployment and offshoring
- Current Account deficit - When imports > exports the amount of money leaving the country to support foreign firms is greater than that entering to support domestic firms. Protectionism aims to correct this imbalance
- Raise tax revenues to lower budget deficit - Important for countries that are developing as they have a limited domestic tax base
4.1 - International economics
What will the effect of this quota be?
Outward shift in domestic supply to Q3. Higher prices due to relative shortage.
4.1 - International economics
How do quotas raise prices?
They create a relative shortage, total output falls:
4.1 - International economics
Give the diagram that shows welfare loss from quotas:
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on domestic producers
- Before the tariff domestic producers produced output equal to Q1 & their revenue was equal to Pw x Q1
- After the tariff was imposed domestic producers produced Q3 & their revenue was equal to Pw X Q3
- Domestic producer surplus has increased by area 2
- Over-reliance on protectionist policies can lead to ineffieinces
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on domestic consumers
- Before the tariff domestic consumers consumed Q2 products at a price of Pw
- After the tariff domestic consumers consumed fewer products (Q4) at a higher price of Pw+tariff
- Domestic consumer surplus has decreased by areas 1, 2, 3 & 4
- Domestic industries become more competitive and so may get better products
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on the government
- After the tariff is imposed the government receives tax revenue equal to ((Pw+tariff) - Pw) x (Q4-Q3) - area 3
- Protectionist policies may strain diplomatic relations and lead to retaliation by trading partners.
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of tarrifs/protectionist policy on living standards
- The standards of living for consumers worsen as the value of their income is eroded as they are paying higher prices
- Domestic firms who benefit from increased production may increase employees’ wages
——-> This would increase the standard of living for employees
4.1 - International economics
What are the impacts of tarrifs/protectionist policy on equality
- Workers in industries that have been experiencing structural unemployment due to foreign competition will feel that the tariff results in them being treated more fairly
- Protectionism can exacerbate income inequality if it benefits specific industries or groups while imposing costs on others.
- It may also affect global income distribution by limiting opportunities for developing countries to export.
4.1 - International economics
What are 3 different types of quotas
- Absolute quota – A simple physical limit either a volume or a value
- Tariff rate quota – These allow a certain number of imports to gain a discount on the usual tariff rate
- Voluntary export restraints (VER) – This is when a government limits the amount of exports from one country to another for a particular type of good.
4.1 - International economics
Quotas vs Tariffs
- Quotas tend to cause a bigger fall in economic welfare because the government don’t gain any tax revenue, that you get with tariffs.
- Quotas allow the country to be certain on the number of imports coming in. Tariffs is more unknown because it depends on the elasticity of demand and how consumers and suppliers react to the tariff. Tariffs depend on the market
- Quotas may be harder to enforce if it is difficult to count the amount of the good coming into the country.
- Quotas could be more unfair. Some export firms may do well if they get the quota allowance, but others may lose out. It becomes a political issue on how to distribute the quotas. Firms may also dislike the uncertainty of not knowing how many quotes to gain. Could be more corruption with quotas, so puts politicians are put under pressure.
4.1 - International economics
What are subsidies to domestic producers?
Payments to domestic producers which lower their costs.
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on domestic producers
- Decreases costs of production
- Increases output
- Increases international competitiveness
- Higher revenues will lift profits and possible lead to higher share price. More output could lead to economies of scale
Evaluation:
Risk of dependency, removes the incentive to be more competitive by innovation, increasing efficiency and productivity
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on consumers
The subsidy may not be large enough to change the world price. So won’t affect them
But could lower the overall price
Eval
Facing higher taxes if the subsidy is expensive
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies to the government
Can be an effective non-tariff barrier to reduce the volume of imports by encouraging domestic production
Eval:
Doesn’t generate tax revenue. More spending can increase budget deficit. Opportunity cost
4.1 - International economics
Evaluation of the impact of protectionism
- Risk of Retaliation and a possible trade war
- Market Distortions
- Higher prices for consumers
- Regressive effect on income inequality
- Incentives to by-pass controls in shadow markets
- Higher costs for exporters
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of Quotas on Domestic Producers
- Increases their output
- Raises the selling price
- Increases their revenue
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas on foreign producers
- Decreases their output
* Compared to a tariff, those firms who manage to export in the quota receive a higher price for their sales
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of a quota on consumers
Results in higher prices & less choice
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas to the government
- They do not receive any tariff revenue (as there is no tariff)
- They may receive higher tax revenue at the end of the financial year when domestic firms pay their corporation tax.
- More employment so more taxes that way and also achieve some objective of low unemployment
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas on standard of living
Reduces for consumers as higher prices erode the purchasing power of their income
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of quotas on equality
Improves for domestic firms but worsens for foreign firms
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on foreign producers
Makes it harder for them to compete with domestic firms
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on standards of living
Improves for consumers as they benefit from lower prices - their income goes further
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of subsidies on equality
Domestic firms can compete more equally
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on domestic producers
- Limits foreign competition
- Protects levels of outputs
- May increase selling price & revenue
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on foreign producers
- Acts as a disincentive to sell into foreign markets
* Costs of meeting the non-tariff barriers may significantly reduce profit margins
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on consumers
May reduce choice/variety in a market
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on the government
- They may lose some credibility with the WTO
- Enforcing the non-tariff barriers may be difficult or expensive
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on standards of living
- Less choice & higher prices erode standards of living
- Product labelling information may improve decision making & quality of life
4.1 - International economics
What is the impact of non-tarriff barriers on equality
May help improve equality e.g. environmental standards help create equal production inputs which results in equality in the costs of production
4.1 - International economics
What is the definition of balance of payments?
The sum total of a country’s income and expenditure on foreign trade
together with all its international capital movements
It’s split into two sections…..
Current account
Capital & financial account
Always = 0
4.1 - International economics
What is the Current Account of the Balance of Payments? (TTIT)
- (Balance of) trade in goods
- (Balance of) trade in services
- (Net) income flows from abroad
- (Net international) transfer payments.
4.1 - International economics
What does the current account of the balance of payments refer to?
How much is spent on imports vs the total value of exports
4.1 - International economics
Relative to the balance of payments, what are: Exports? Imports?
X = Positive
M = Negative
4.1 - International economics
What is the balance of payments (BoP) made up of?
- Current account
- Financial account
- Capital account
- Balancing items
4.1 - International economics
How does a floating exchange rate affect the balance of payments?
Ensures BoP is always 0.
S for currency = D for currency.
(E.g. CA deficit can be compensated for by FA surplus).
4.1 - International economics
What are the factors affecting the balance of payments? (RISE)
Rate of consumer spending on imports AKA Marginal propensity to import. (↑M ↓BoP).
International competitiveness.
Structure of the economy. (De-industrialisation can harm export sector; e.g. Italy).
Exchange rate. (Can influence export value).
4.1 - International economics
What are the causes of a current account deficit
- Relatively low productivity
- Relatively high value of a countrys currency
- Relatively high rate of inflation
- Rapid economic growth resulting in increased imports
- Non-price factors such as poor quality and design
- Poor Price
- Recession
- Volatile global prices
- Government policy
4.1 - International economics
How does relatively low productivity cause a current account deficit
- Low productivity raises costs
- Exporting firms with low productivity may find themselves at a price and cost disadvantage in overseas markets which will decrease competitiveness and the level of exports
- With higher domestic prices, consumers may also buy abroad thus increasing the imports
- Falling exports and rising imports creates a deficit
4.1 - International economics
How does relatively high value of the country’s currency cause a current account deficit
- Currency appreciation makes a country’s exports more expensive relative to other nations
- Foreign buyers look for substitute products which are priced lower
- Exports fall and the balance on the current account worsens
- Similarly, currency appreciation makes imports cheaper
- Domestic consumers may switch demand to foreign goods and as imports rise, the balance on the current account worsens
4.1 - International economics
How does relatively high rate of inflation cause a current account deficit
- A relatively high rate of inflation makes a country’s exports more expensive than other nations
- Foreign buyers look for substitute products which are priced lower
- Exports fall and the balance on the current account worsens
- Similarly, high inflation may mean that goods/services are cheaper in other countries
- Domestic consumers may switch demand to foreign goods and as imports rise, the balance on the current account worsens
4.1 - International economics
How does rapid economic growth resulting in increased imports
- Rapid economic growth raises household income
- Households respond by purchasing goods/services with a high-income elasticity of demand (income elastic)
- Many of these goods are imported and as imports rise, the balance on the current account worsens
4.1 - International economics
How does non-price factors such as poor quality and design cause a current account deficit
- When a country develops a reputation for poor quality and design, its exports fall as foreign buyers look for better substitutes elsewhere
- Domestic buyers who are able to shop abroad also choose to buy better quality products elsewhere and the level of imports rise
- A fall in exports and a rise in imports worsens the balance on the current account
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems with having a large balance of payments deficit?
- Signals a long term loss of competitiveness
- May mean higher unemployement
- Withdrawl from circular flow, drag on aggregate demand
- May create imported inflation
- Leads to a falling exchange rate - higher import costs.
- Fall in GDP
- Withdrawl from circular flow
4.1 - International economics
Why might having a balance of payments deficit not be so bad
- Depends on the size of the deficit and how long it persists
* Might be cyclical - Depends on what the imports are - capital goods and investment will improve future growth prospects.
- Depends on if the exchange rate is fixed or floating, In a floating system, the balance of payments deficit should be self correcting
- Might be financed by a surplus on the financial account
4.1 - International economics
Causes of a current account surplus
- Competitive economy - High productivity, investment, training, quality
- Low inflation
- Low exchange rate
- Vast natural resource - Kuwait, UAE
- Trade cycle
- Government policies - competitive supply side policies
- Surplus of savings over investment
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems of having a large balance of payments surplus?
- Retaliation - Countries with large deficits might retaliate by putting up barriers to trade to reduce imports - American withdrawl from NAFTA
- Resources are focused on producing to meet export demand rather than export demand, so lower consumer living standards
- Rise in the exchange rate - makes exports more uncompetitive in the long run.
- Inflation - high demand for exports could create inflation.
4.1 - International economics
What are the 4 options the government has to try and reduce current account deficits
- Do nothing and leave it to market foces in Forex market to self-correct deficit
- Use expenditure switching policies - change relative prices of exports and imports
- Use expenditure reducing policies - lower real incomes and AD - cutting demand for improts but causes unemployment
- Use supply-side policies
4.1 - International economics
If a country has a current account deficit, it must have a surplus on the other elements of the balance of payments. Why is this?
- This is because it has to pay for everything it consumes and funds in some way - to fund a current account deficit, a country must be selling assets to foreign investors.
- It is debatable whether this is sutainable in the long run since, if people invest in a country, at some point they will require a return on their investment, and this will cause a deficit on the financial account
4.1 - International economics
Examples of expenditure switching policies
- Depreciation of the exchange rate - Reduces relative price of exportds & make imports more expensiive - BUT risk of cost push inflation - which erodes competitive boost + fall in incomes
- Import tariffs - Increases the price of imports & makes domestic output more price competitive - BUT risk of retaliation from other countries if import tariffs are used as BoP policy
- Low rate of inlfation (perhaps deflation) - Keeps general price level under control and makes exports more competitive - BUT risks from deflation as a way of achieviing intenal develuation - including lower investment
4.1 - International economics
Examples of expenditure reducing policy
- Increase in income taxes - Reduces real disposable incomes causing falling demand for imports - BUT cut in living standards and risk of damage to work incentives in labour markets
- Cuts in real levels of government spending - Lower aggreagate demand, firms may look to export their spare capacity - BUT damage to short term economic growth, risks that austerity hits investment
4.1 - International economics
What are the problems with persistent deficits
Means finaince from abroad (in form of loans or foreign direct investment) is required in order to fund continued imports
- This may mean that a country is gradually selling its assets
- Owing money to a foreign entity creates vulnerabilites
* 2008 GFC - Greece owend creditors significant sums and was required to pay these back making numerous problems their economy. Creditors insisting on being paid back quickly - Run up large external debts and then relying on foreign capital
- May switch towards protectionist policies
- Can lead to fall in relative living standards if economoc growth slows down
4.1 - International economics
What is the problems with persistner surpluses of trade
Focus of allocation of resources is on meeting foreign demand as opposed to meeting domestic demand
- This can limit availabilty of goods/services in the local economy which can possibly decrease the standard of living for some households
- It can also create instabiloty in the forex maket if there is a floating exchange rate
- Saving more than they spedn
- May adopt a policy of delibrately under-valuing the currency
- May be under-consuming (affecting living conditions)
4.1 - International economics
Exam tip for global trade imbalances
major issue with trade imbalances is that it strengthens those who want to move away from free trade. Large trade imbalances leading to rise of de-globalisation – creating trade tensions –> tariff and non-tariff barriers
4.1 - International economics
What is the Marshall-Lerner condition?
A net improvement in trade will only occur if (PED X + PED M) is more than 1.
(Good evaluation to the J-Curve).
4.1 - International economics
What does the J curve show?
Short term negative effect (of devaluation as demand inelastic).
Long term positive effect (of devaluation as demand becomes more price elastic).
REGARDING THE CURRENT ACCOUNT.
4.1 - International economics
What is the short term effect of depreciation
- In the short-term, a fall in the price of exports will only cause a smaller percentage rise in quantity demanded.
- A rise in the price imports will cause a smaller percentage fall in demand for imports. Therefore, the value of imports actually rises (we spend more on imports)
- Therefore, if demand is inelastic, following a depreciation, we actually get a worsening of the current account account
4.1 - International economics
What are the long term effects of a depreciation
In the long-term, demand for exports and imports will tend to become more price elastic. (more sensitive to price)
- Therefore, a fall in the price of exports will cause a bigger percentage rise in quantity demand. (And therefore we get a bigger rise in the value of exports) When demand is elastic, the value of exports rises – and we get an improvement in the current account position.
- Also, if demand for imports is price elastic, then there will be a bigger percentage fall in demand for imports. In this case, the total spending on imports starts to fall.
4.1 - International economics
Why is demand more price elastic in the long-term
J-curve
- In the short-term, firms and consumers may have contracts to keep buying the good.
- It takes time to find alternatives.
- The higher price of imports will be an incentive for domestic firms to increase production, but this takes time
- Elasticity and time
4.1 - International economics
Evaluation of the J-curve effect
- The current account will depend on consumer spending and the rate of economic growth.
- It also depends on consumer spending in foreign countries (hence demand for exports)
- It depends on Inflation (e.g. depreciation can cause imported inflation which reduces the competitiveness of exports)
- Firms may engage in insurance policies to hedge against exchange rate movements.
4.1 - International economics
Chain of analysis for a depreciation due to current account deficit
- Depreciation due to current account deficit
- WIDEC
- Imports should ↓, Exports should ↑
- So C.A deficit should imprive
- BUTTT
- Elastics of D+S, contracts have been signed so
- Short term, imports might not reduce, exports might not imprive
- So CA deficit gets worse before it gets better
4.1 - International economics
What is effective exchange rate
This is a weighted index of sterling’s value against a basket of currencies where the weights are based on the importance/share of trade between the UK and each country
4.1 - International economics
What is a free floating exchange rate
- External value is set by market forces
- No intervention by central bank
- No target for the exchange rate
4.1 - International economics
Factors causing changes in a floating exchange rate system
- Trade/current account balances – strong trade and CA surplus see currencies appreciate as money flows into circular flow by exports and inflows of investment
- Foreign direct investment – more FDI means increase in currency demand and so rising exchange rate
- Portfolio investment – strong inflows of investment into equities and bonds from overseas sees currency appreciation
- Interest rate differentials – hot money
Chain of reasoning - the impact of higher interest rates on a floating exchange rate
- Rise in policy interest rates by central bank
- Currency more attractive for investors
- Attracts inflows of short term hot money
- Causes outwarad shift in currency demand
- Currency appreaciates in value in floating system
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning - the effect of a fall in export demadn on a floating exchange rate
- Recession in a trading partner
- Causes a fall in export sales
- Worsening of trade balance
- Inward shift of currency demand
- Currency will depreacite
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning - decrease in FDI
Decrease in investment from overseas will mean a decrease in demand for pounds and a depreciation of currency
4.1 - International economics
What is managed floating exchange rate
Combination of fixed & floating mechanism. Central bank determines prefered currency value and thn lets the currency flucturate within a certain range of the preferred value. If it goes outisde the range then the cenral bank will intervene
4.1 - International economics
How can exchange rates be changed
-
Chanes in monetary policy interest rates
- Changes in interst rates - lower interst will depreciate the exchange rate
- Causes movments of “hot money” in and out of country
-
Quantitative easing
- Increas liquiduty in banking system, causes an outflow of money leading to depreaciation of ER
- Direct buying/selling in the currency market (intervention)
-
Taxation of overseas currency deposits and capital controls
- Taxation of foreign deposits in banks cuts profts from hot money inflows
- Gov could introdeuce control of the free flow of capital in and out of a country
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning: How can a central bank influence the value of a currency
- In a managed floating currrency system, one way that a central bank can influecne the external value is by changing interest rates
- For example, if they want to achieve a depreciation, they might opt to lower their main monetary policy interest rate
- A fall in interest rates reduces the returns on overseas money held in a country’s banking system. The real reutnr may become negative
- As a result, lower interest rates might cause an outflow of short-term “hot money” from commercial banks to other countries
- This will cause an outward shift of the supply curve for the currency as investors look for currencies with higher expected returns
- In this way, assuming other central banks have kept their rates constant, a fall in interest rates might lead to a depreciation
4.1 - International economics
What is competitive devaluation
When a country deliberatelt intervenes to drive down the value of the currency to provide a competitive lift to aggregate demand, output and jobs in their export industries. Countries with persitent trade deficits and rising unemployments this could be an attractive option
4.1 - International economics
What are the risks of competitive devaluation
- Can be seen as a form of trade protection so inveites retaliatory action
- Goes against princples of trade based on comparitive advantage
- Cutting the exchange rate makes it harder for other countries to export, negativelt affecting their growth rate which in turn can damage the volume of trade that takes place between nations
4.1 - International economics
What is a fixed exchange rate
The central bank negotiates with the IMF to fix (peg) their currency to another one
Could be party so - 1 Brunei dollar = 1 Singapore dollar
Often not party so - 7.75 Hong kong dollars = 1 US$
4.1 - International economics
Revaluations and devaluations for a fixed currency
- A revaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg and increase the strength of its currency
- A devaluation occurs if the Central Bank decides to change the peg and decrease the strength of its currency
4.1 - International economics
Chain of reasoning: How might a currency depreciation affect international competitivenss
- A depreciation is a fall in the external value of a currency inside a floating exchange rate system
- Consider for example a deprecation of the UK £ agaisnt the Euro. The £ might fall from Euro 1.50 to Euro 1.20, a drop of 20%
- As a result exporters can reduce the foreign price of goods and services sold overseas
- This makes UK exports relatively cheaper in overseas markets. Relative export prices fall leading to improved competitveness
- In addition, the UK price of imported products will increase £1 buys fewer euros. For example, imported cars will be more expensive
- A rise in import prices will make domestic producers in the UK appear relatively more competitive purely in cost and price terms
4.1 - International economics
How is the current account affected by changes in exchange rates
- Depreciation of the £ causes exports to be cheaper for foreigners to buy & imports to the UK are more expensive
- The extent to which this improves the current account balance depends on the Marshall-Lerner condition
- This follows the revenue rule which states that in order to increase revenue, firms should lower prices for products that are price elastic in demand
- If the combined elasticity of exports/imports is less than 1 (inelastic), a depreciation (fall in price) will actually worsen the current account balance
- It is also important to recognize that there is a time lag between the depreciation of the £ and any subsequent improvement in the current account balance
- This is explained by the J-Curve effect
- It takes time for firms & consumers to respond to changes in price
- Once it becomes evident that price changes will last for a longer period of time, firms & consumers switch
- E.g. a firm in the USA has been importing electric scooters from the UK. If the Euro depreciates, the price of scooters in France becomes relatively cheaper. In the short-term, the USA firm will not switch immediately to purchasing scooters from France as the exchange rate may soon bounce back. They also have a good relationship with their UK suppliers. In the long term they are likely to switch
- This is explained by the J-Curve effect
4.1 - International economics
How is economic growth affected by changes in exchange rates
- Net exports are a component of aggregate demand (AD)
- A depreciation that results in an increase in net exports will lead to economic growth
4.1 - International economics
How is inflation affected by changes in exchange rates
- Cost push inflation is likely to occur as the price of imported raw materials increases with currency depreciation
- Net exports are a component of aggregate demand (AD)
- A depreciation that results in an increase in net exports will lead to an increase in aggregate demand
- This may lead to an increase in demand pull inflation
- Could be a stimulus to GDP growth
- An appreciation of the currency will have the opposite effect
4.1 - International economics
How is unemployment affected by changes in exchange rates
- If depreciation leads to an increase in exports, unemployment is likely to fall as more workers are required to produce the additional products demanded
- An appreciation of the currency will have the opposite effect so decrease in exports, unemployment rises as less is produced
How are living standards affected by changes in exchange rates
- The impact of a depreciation on living standards can be muted
- As imports are more expensive, households face higher prices & less choice, which detracts from living standards
- Rising exports can decrease unemployment & increase wages/income which means an improved standard of living for some households
- The impact of an appreciation on living standards will be the opposite
4.1 - International economics
How is foreign direct investment (FDI) affected by changes in exchange rates
- Depreciation of a currency makes it cheaper for foreign firms to invest in the country and can increase the FDI
- The money they have available to invest is worth more when the currency has depreciated
- An appreciation has the opposite effect
4.1 - International economics
How does foreign demand for exports/domestic demand for imports change the supply and demand for a currency
- When consumers from your country want to buy products form another, they will first have to sell your country’s currency in exchange for the other country’s currency before they can buy the product
- This means dmenad for the other country increases, and that the supply of your currency increases
4.1 - International economics
How does foreign direct investment change supply and demand for a currency
- FDI refers to international firms investing abroad, usually into factories to decrease costs of production
- Inward FDI means a firm invests into your economy (money goes in). More demadn for domestic currency
- Outward FDI means a domestic firm invests in another ecnomy (money goes out). More supply of domestic currency
4.1 - International economics
How does Portfolio investment change supply and demand for a currency
- Some people/firms/governments may purchase financial investments from abroad. This includes stocks, options and bonds
- Inward investment means someone from abroad wants to purchase investments in your country (money goes in). More demand for domestic currency
- Outward investment means someone from your country wants to purchase investments abroad (money goes out). More supply of domestic currency
4.1 - International economics
How does remittances change supply and demand for a currency
- Remittances refers to money sent from people working abroad sending their money back to their home country
- More demand for the home currency, while more supply of the original currency
4.1 - International economics
How does speculation cause changes in supply and demand for a currency
- Speculation here refers the purchasing of a currency in hope that its value will increase
- More demand for investment currency, while more supply of the original currency
4.1 - International economics
How does relative inflation rates cause changes in supply and demand for a currency
- High inflation rates will make the country’s exports less competitve, which will reduce exports, which in turn reduces the demand for the country’s currency
- Additionally, if inflation is hurting a currency, investors may sell this currency in exchange for a more stable one
- More demand for stable currency, while more supply of the inflationary currency
4.1 - International economics
How does relative growth rates cause changes in supply and demand for a currency
- High economic growth -> inflation -> central banks increases interest rates -> investors see high returns on bank depoists -> more money is put into local banks
- High economic growth -> more confidence in the economy -> more investment from other countrys
- More demand for high growth economy’s currency, while more supply of the original currency. Here, we assume the economic growth would increase the inflation rate
A counter point
- High economic growth -> more net imports from other countries as demand outweights supply
- More demand for other foreign currencies, while more supply of the high growth economy’s currency
4.1 - International economics
What does more demand for a currency look like on a diagram
4.1 - International economics
What does more supply of a currency look like on a diagram
4.1 - International economics
What does depreciation of exchange rate depend on
- Time lags
- Size of change
- Is change permanent
- Coefficients of PED for exports and imports (marshall-lerner condition)
- Size of any second round multiperler and accelerator effects
- The type of economy (differnet for developing and develped countries)
- Degree of openness of the economy to international trade (measured by value of trade as a % of GDP)
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of floating exchange rate systems
- Reduces the need for a central bank to hold large amounts of currency reserves
- Freedom to set monetary policy interest rates to meet domestic objectives
- May help to prevent imported inflation
- Insulation for an economy aftern an external shock especially for export-dependent countries
- Partial automatic correction for a current account/trade deficit
- Less risk of a currency becoming significantly over/undervalued
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantges of floating exchange rates
- No guarantee that floating exchange rate will be stable
- Volatility in a floating currency might be detrimental to attracting inward investment
- A lower (more competitive) exchange rate does not necessarily correct a persistent current account deficit - consider the J curve theory and the importance of non-price competitiveness
AD-AS analysis of likely impact of an exchange rate appreciation
4.1 - International economics
Advantages of fixed exchange rates
- Certainty of currency value gives confidence of inward investment from overseas businesses
- reduced need to engage in and costs of “currency hedging” for businesses such as airlines
- Currency stability helps to control inflation - i.e. it is a discipline on businesses to keep labour costs low
- A stable currency can lead to lower borrowing costs (i.e lower yields on government bonds)
- Imposes responsibility on government macro poliices e.g. to keep inflation under control
- Less speculation in the curency market if the fixed exchange rate is regarded by traders as credible
4.1 - International economics
Disadvantages of fixed exchange rates
- Reduced freedom to use interest rates for other macro objectives such as stimulating GDP growth
- Many developing countries do not have sufficiently large foreign currency reserves to be able to maintain a fixed exchange rate over some time
- Difficult for countries to use a competitive devaluation of their fixed exchange rate - creates political tensions and possible retaliation
- Devaluation of a fixed exchange rate can lead to a surge in cost-push inflation - this is damaging to competitiveness and has regressive impacts on poor families
4.1 - International economics
Fixed vs Floating
- Fixed rates may be optimal for developing countries wanting to control inflation
- Export-dependent economies may favour a managed floating rate e.g. to offset fluctuating world prices
- Not every country has the scale of foreign currency reserves needed to influence the price of a currency
- The choice of currency regime is hugely important for developing and emerging countries. Some have opted to join a monetary union e.g. the 19 members of the Euro Zone
4.1 - International economics
What is the definition of international competitiveness?
- The competitiveness of a country’s exports abroad and its ability to compete with imports at home
- Depends on price and non price factors such as quality, reliability and brand name
4.1 - International economics
Aspects of non-price competitiveness
- Product quality
- Innovation
- Reliability
- Performance
- Marketing
- Brand loyalty
- After sale services
- Branding
What are some non-wage cost factors for businesses operating in international markets
- Environmental taxes - costs for carbon emissions
- Employment protection laws and health & safety regulations
- Statuatory requirements - pensions
- Employment taxes - employers national insurance - increased in 2024 autumn budget
4.1 - International economics
What are the 3 measures of international competitiveness?
The main measures are
- Relative unit labour costs
- Relative export prices
- Quality
Others
- Productivity
- Unit costs
- Levels of investment
- R&D expenditure
- Training and education
4.1 - International economics
What is relative unit labour costs and what are they determined by mainly
Total labour costs/ouput
Determined by
- Average wages/salaries
- Labour productivity
4.1 - International economics
When will relative unit labour costs rise
- A country’s exchange rate appreciates
- Wages costs rises relatively faster than other nations
- Labour productivity growth is relatively slower
4.1 - International economics
Ways to reduce relative unit labour costs
- Monetary policy interventions aimed at a currency depreciation e.g. a managed floating exchange rate
- Wage controls e.g. wage/pay freezes for people working in the public (state) sector
- Supply-side measures designed to raise labor productivity/efficiency across many industries
4.1 - International economics
What are relative export prices?
The price of the UK’s exports compared to the exports of the UK’s main trading partners.
(High relative export prices is bad for competitiveness).
4.1 - International economics
When do export prices rise
- An appreciation of the currency - export price rise in overseas markets
- A period of high relative inflation
- Export businesses experience higher costs e.g. higher minimum wages - prices rise to protect profits so inflation
- When exports are hit by import tariffs
What are the factors affecting international competitiveness? FEEDDOPRIFT
- FoP.
- Exchange rates.
- Economic stability.
- Domestic demand.
- Domestic competition.
- Openness to trade.
- Productivity.
- Regulation.
- Inflation / Investment.
- Finance (access to).
- Taxation.
4.1 - International economics
Policies to improve competitiveness
- Competitive exchange rate – maybe moving to a managed floating currency
- Competitive tax environment – attract inward investment and encourage new business to set up
- Investment in human capital – improves quality of the workforce – more funding for higher education
- Increase r&d – drive faster pace of innovation – r&d tax credits
- Stronger market competition to raise factor productivity and lower relative export prices
- Stable macroeconomic environment – low inflation and steady economic growth –> business confidence and investment
- Investment in critical infrastructure – better road, air and rail links, improved darts, faster broadband
4.1 - International economics
What fiscal polices can be used to increase competitivness
- Subsides – lower cost of research e.g. pharmaceuticals
- Tax incentives – can encourage different aspects
- Lower employment taxes – stimulate skilled migration from overseas
- Lower capital gains taxes – encourage small businesses to set up
- Special economic zones – attract research-intensive businesses
4.1 - International economics
What is important for international competitiveness in the long run
- Macro competitiveness has important micro foundations – businesses drives it, gov is there to regulate a little
- Competitive markets and innovative business
- Skills, aptitudes, and attitudes within a diverse workforce
- Competitive advantage comes from having
- Globally scaled businesses close to or at technological frontier
- Culture of innovative businesses start-ups
- A financial system that can support it all
- Reliance on currency depreciation/devaluation and wage cost is not a sustainable competitiveness strategy
- The most competitive countries tend to have the highest minimum wages
- There is a continuous global battle for the most talented, highly skilled workers
- “races to the bottom” e.g. in tax rates and wages have a limited impact in the long run
4.1 - International economics
What is internal devaluation
A strategy to boost price competitiveness by reducing wage costs and raising productivity without currency devaluation. Achieved via fiscal austerity (tax hikes, spending cuts) and/or higher real interest rates, causing deflationary pressure. Common in fixed-exchange-rate countries (e.g., Ecuador, Eurozone members like Greece) and requires years of low relative inflation/deflation. Examples: Latvia, Greece, Ecuador post-financial crises.
4.1 - International economics
What is external devaluation
A deliberate reduction in a country’s currency value (under a fixed/semi-fixed exchange rate) to boost export competitiveness and raise import costs. Goals include shrinking trade deficits and lowering the real value of sovereign debt. Faster than internal devaluation. Examples: Egypt (16% devaluation in 2016) and Ghana (17% in 2019).
4.1 - International economics
Risks from an internal devaluation
- Severe loss of output and rising unemployment
- Fall in nominal wages reduces living standards
- Risks from sustained price deflation
- Real value of debt increases
- Danger of a country suffering a permant loss of output (known as “hystersis”)
4.1 - International economics
Drawbacks from an external devaluation
- Increase in cost-push inflation from higher import prices
- Reduces real income because of a rise in inflation
- No guarantee that the trade deficit will improve (refer to the J-curve concept)
- Foreign creditors will demand higher interest rates on new issues of government and corporate debt
- Currency uncertainty makes country less attractive to inward FDI
4.1 - International economics
Benefits of being international competitiveness
- Improved living standards e.g. measured by real GNI per capita (PPP)
- Stronger trade performance from an increase in export sales
- Virtuous circle of economic growth
- Employment creation
- Higher government tax revenues as incomes and profits increase
4.1 - International economics
Problems with being international competitive
- Trade surpluses might invite a protectionist response
- Possible risks of demand-pull inflation
- Competitiveness might be achieved at the expense of growing inequality of income and wealth
- Higher productivity might be achived at expense of a worsening work-life balance and increased incidence of mental health problems
- Increased competitiveness might cause a country’s exchange rate to appreciate