the EU and russia Flashcards
post cold war Russia
Severe economic difficulties
Legacy of discredited political system
Attempt to democratise with no tradition of
democracy
Potential for political extremism
Radical weakening of international position
Sense of national humiliation
‘we are like a wolf that has been surrounded-
and that provokes our hunter’s instinct’ (Dmtriy Rogozin, Russian Ambassador to NATO)
Nuclear proliferation
significance of russia for the EU
Traditional claims to importance:
Nuclear weapons
UN Security Council veto
Geo-strategic location:
- Key Eurasian power
- Slavic influence e.g. Balkans
- Middle East influence
- Direct borders upon the EU
Shared security concerns
- Trans-national organised crime
- Drug and human trafficking
- Money laundering
- Nuclear safety
- Environmental pollution
- International terrorism
Mutual economic interest
- Russia needs to import technology and technical
expertise - Russia was the EU’s 3rd largest trading partner after the USA and China
- Germany alone accounted for c.one-third of EU exports to Russia
- 2019: About 85% of EU exports to Russia were manufactured goods (e.g. cars, mobile phones, aircraft)
- About 70% of imports from Russia were energy (oil, gas and coal)
Consequences of 2004 EU Enlargement
Lengthening of direct borders
Cut across Russian interests in CEECs
Encroached upon Russian Diaspora e.g.
Kaliningrad - Kaliningrad became surrounded entirely by EU member states
Created sensitive eastern zone between EU and Russia of Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine
Increasing economic interdependence
Structures of EU-Russia Relations
1991: Financial assistance under the TACIS (Technical Aid
to the Commonwealth of Independent States) Programme
to assist the transition to democracy - €2.7 billion since
then.
Under the same programme €500 million to improve
nuclear safety.
1994 (1997) Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
(PCA)
1999 EU Common Strategy on Russia
1999 Russian ‘medium-term strategy for development of
relations between the Russian Federation and the European Union’
Creation of Four Common Spaces (May 2003)
Common Economic Space (investment,
energy, climate change)
Common Space of Freedom, Security and
Justice (visas, human rights)
Common Space on External Security (co-
operation, effective multilateralism)
Common Space on Research, Education
and Culture (science, higher education, arts,
cultural diversity)
Russia-Georgia War
(August 2008)
Georgian troops invaded South Ossetia claiming there
were Russian troop movements (denied by the Russians)
Russia responded by invading Georgia and defeating its
forces
Renewed display Russian military power
Assert itself in ‘sphere of privileged interests’
Example to immediate neighbours
Demonstrate not ‘status quo’ player
Direct clash with EU emphasis on integration, negotiation
and rule of law
Difficulties in EU-Russia Relations
Russia ‘illiberal democracy’ (‘managed
democracy’)
Russia’s relations with key countries e.g. Iran
Encroaching on Russian sphere of influence e.g.
Serbia/Kosovo; eastwards expansion of NATO
Value differences (sovereignty, humanitarian
intervention, democracy)
Potential economic and strategic friction (‘pipeline
politics’)
Increasing Russian ‘pushback’ (soft and hard power; sphere of influence, rival security
architecture ideas) e.g:
Cyber-attack on Estonia 2007
Ukraine military action 2014
Consolidation of pro-Russia European leaderships
e.g. Moldova and Bulgaria 2016
Russia progressively harder to deal with:
reassertion, greater self-confidence
Russia prioritises relationship with US
February 2022 Russia invades Ukraine: Game
changer
russia - Ukraine war
Russia poses the biggest threat to peace and stability in Europe, all areas of relations have been securitized. Through eight comprehensive sanctions packages adopted by the EU, the union’s member states are systematically cutting all economic ties. Europe’s decoupling from Russian oil and gas ends fifty years of connectivity and mutually beneficial energy relations. This will put Russia’s economic model under pressure and push the country further toward China and Asia more generally.
The decline in economic relations has already been huge. Because of the sanctions, Germany, Russia’s most important trading partner in the EU, recorded a 34 percent drop in exports to Russia in the first half of 2022
After years of conflict among EU member states over the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, the war in Ukraine led German decisionmakers to abruptly suspend their approval of the project. EU member states like Germany, which are heavily dependent on Russian gas, are developing alternative energy sources in the Middle East, Norway, and the United States
as much as 65 percent of Germany’s gas came from Russia in 2020
Cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns against politicians, and fake news by Russian media against EU member states reinforced Russia’s alienation
