Techniques Flashcards
How is backcasting used in analysis
To explore a typically high impact future outcome, what is necessary to bring it about and as a first stage in developing a warning problem
How is a ACH used in defence
It used to evaluate hypotheses, determining how well supported they are including in relation to other hypotheses.
Without it there is a risk that favoured hypothesis is given undue weight or that hypotheses consistent with the data are not considered
It is also good for identifying gaps
How is KEy Assumptions Check used in analysis
It used to challenge an existing hypothesis or generated hypothesis/analytical line
It can test the foundations of the assessment and expose weaknesses that could then lead to further collection
Can also lead to altering of analytical line
How is Cone of plausibility used in analysis
CoP is used to generate a set of scenarios about the future after a given timeframe with a clear audit trail of how these could come about . The technique allows for creation of broad span of futures to help combat failure of imagination. Identifying drivers alone can provide insight into the most important factors in shaping the future
How is environment scanning used in analysis
It is used to widen the scope of thinking forcing you to think beyond the obvious
It is good to used in combination with others
Why are techniques important
Provides audit trail
Encourages creativity
Challenges thought processes (biases fallacies and identifies and challenges assumptions)
Why are audit trails key
Shows working to explain advice
- show how optical route was taken - lessons learned in good way
- or expose weaknesses that go to lessons learned
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Can be used as a starting point for further analysis (particularly if done by new analyst)
Expose influences on an assessment - eg if an assessment changes after going to senior
