Crit thinking

Question 1

What is anchoring

What are good techniques for countering it

Answer 1

Over influence on work of a predecessor
(more generally, its about relying too heavily on one trait or piece of information)

KAC
ACH.
Essentially hypothesis (analytical line) evaluation tools

Question 2

How do you counter bias

Answer 2

Paraphrase the requirement (generates new ways of thinking)
Turn the requirement around 180 degrees (if asked strengths, consider weaknesses).
Broaden the focus (think bigger than question asked)
Change the focus (similar requirement)
Network (fresh minds help show up bias)

Question 3

What is hindsight bias

What is the best technique for countering it

Answer 3

The idea that you knew it all along and that past events were predictable, therefore future events will not be surprising

Counter it with cone of plausibility

Question 4

What are five imperatives of critical thinking

Answer 4

Information is used
disciplined use of analytical techniques
continued development of analytical skills
demands an output
- that is usable in a practical way

Question 5

What is a sound argument
what is the non-deductive equivalent

Answer 5

A valid argument with true premises
A cogent argument is a non-deductive argument with true premises

Question 6

What is inductive reasoning

Answer 6

drawing upon the slecific to draw a general conclusion..
But.. more in the way we consider inductive reasoning takes evidence from the past or present to support a conclusion of a future prediction.
In other words, the premises are inherently not conclusive facts.

Question 7

What is the authority falacy

Answer 7

That weight is erroneously given to an ‘authority’

Question 8

What is the prejudice fallacy

How does it it differ from prejudicial language fallacy and what wider fallacy does it fall under

Answer 8

The idea that just because a source of information is prejudiced it can’t have value

However separately it is referred to as the fallacy of circular reasoning or begging the question in which the conclusion is assumed in the premise

In the prejudicial language fallacy there is use of innovative words with connotations
Eg only no supporter of inequality would claim x
It is actually a form of empty words fallacy

Question 9

What is the ‘shut up’ fallacy

Answer 9

The idea that an argument is shut down by questioning a persons qualifications to make it. It is also called ‘Circumstantial Ad Hominem’

Question 10

What is the Empty Words Fallacy

Answer 10

Using unusual words or phraseology to hide a simpler message or confuse or decieve.

Question 11

What is the Motivation Fallacy

Answer 11

The idea that just because a source has a motive means it can’t be correct
encapsulated by phrase ‘he would say that wouldn’t he’

Question 12

What is the Equivocation Fallacy

Answer 12

Aka Doublespeak fallacy, this is when you use words with different meanings to twist an argument.

Question 13

what size is appropriate for brainstorming
what don’t you do during brainstorming

Answer 13

between 6 and 10, to get the right balance between creativity and chaos.

Don’t analyse the ideas during the brainstorm itself, that happens at the end

Question 14

What is the critical path in critical path analysis

What is CPA’s very similar alterative

How do you build a CPA chart

Answer 14

Those tasks that need to be completed in sequence to complete the project and which together take the longest to complete. tasks that are non-sequential are called parallel.

An close alternative to CPA is PERT - Programme Evaluation and Review Technique

To build a CPA chart you need to list the tasks, the earliest possible start, length and whether it is sequential or parallel, and what it is dependent on.

Question 15

What type of technique is SWOT (allegedly)

Answer 15

A form of environment scanning

Question 16

What does Pestle stand for
And stemple?

Answer 16

Political economic security technology legal and environment

Security technology economy military politiz legal environment

Question 17

What are the three stages of refining the question

Answer 17

Clarification
Widening
Focussing

Question 18

What are the two question la to have in mind when clarifying the question

What if they are not met

Answer 18

Is it clear what would constitute a good answer
Is it obvious what you would need to know to answer it

If not clarify the precise definitions of terms

Question 19

What three things should you have in mind when widening the question
What do you do if any of these are met

Answer 19

(Think what answer would disappoint them eg a yes or a no when they wanted an open answer)
Ask
- are they really interested in something else that they assume that you will answer
- if they asked a closed question ( would they want more like yes but…)
- are there hidden assumptions behind the question

If yes ask them to reframe so that it covers the real object of interest or is appropriately open or closed

Question 20

When focusing the question what should you have in mind

Answer 20

Does the customers decision depend on meeting some threshold or set of thresholds

If so reframe so it covers the narrower set

Question 21

What is the purpose of analysis
(Three key points)

Answer 21

To reduce customer uncertainties
So that optical courses of action are more likely to be taken or policies adopted

Thinking reducing uncertainties
Like better actions
Likely better policies

Question 22

Why refine questions

Answer 22

The question might not actually reflect what the Customer wants or could be construed wrongly
leading to disappointment and failure to provide the support needed
Time wasted

Question 23

What are the four classes of question
What style of techniques are best suited in first instance

What is the goal

Answer 23

Closed present - hypothesis testing
Open present - hypothesis generating
Closed future - scenario testing

Open future - scenario generating

Closed questions end in testing. When answering open questions you ultimately want to come to a closed state. Eg you go to generating scenarios to then evaluating them

Question 24

What methods are appropriate for hypothesis generating

What are the key reasons (what traps could you fall into if you don’t)

Answer 24

Think about imagination and creativity
You need to think big so as not to miss possibilities

HoriZon scanning (stemple Swot brainstorming)

Without that you could fall foul to confirmation bias (only those hypotheses you already think true)
Of availability heuristic (ideas that are salient rather than likely)

Question 25

What’ are good hypothesis testing techniques (2)

What do they help with

What might you otherwise fall foul to

Answer 25

ACH
Key Assumptions check

Help you consider what assumptions your hypothesis (lines are based on)
And what range of possibilities are actually consistent with the evidence
Also help identify gaps

If you don’t you might fall foul to anchoring effect
Availability heuristic
Overconfidence in a scenario
Groupthink

Question 26

What are good scenario generation techniques

What might you fall foul to otherwise

Answer 26

Swot and stemples are good
Red teaming Swot in particular
Combine swot and stemple

Cone of plausibility

If not you might fall foul to groupthink gunsight bias failure of imagination availability and decency effects and mirror imaging (blimey)

Question 27

What is a good scenario evaluation technique
Why are they good

Answer 27

Raise awareness of what is essential for a high impact outcome to occur. It helps prevent you missing key indicators and being surprised by events

It exposes gaps and limits of reporting and could help show why you might not be able to predict certain things

Main technique is backcasting

Question 28

What are good techniques for challenging groupthink

Answer 28

KAC
Breaking the mirror (aka red teaming)

Question 29

What is the availability and recency effects heuristic

Answer 29

Tendency to focus of scenarios that are more memorable or similar to recent events

Question 30

What is the representative heuristic

Answer 30

Stereotyping
Making judgements based on previous representative examples (real or perceived)

Question 31

What is the importance of critical thinking - what does do for the analyst

Answer 31

Guards against bias
Minimise irrational thought
Guards against fallacious arguments

Question 32

What are the attributes of critical thinking (4) think mnemonic

What does it overall challenge

Answer 32

CRAC
Clarity, relevance, accuracy and comprehensiveness

Which all depend on sound evidence and skilful reasoning

It constantly challenges the thought process - assumptions, concepts, implications, consequences and context. From where the five imperatives fall out