Crit thinking Flashcards
What is anchoring
What are good techniques for countering it
Over influence on work of a predecessor
(more generally, its about relying too heavily on one trait or piece of information)
KAC
ACH.
Essentially hypothesis (analytical line) evaluation tools
How do you counter bias
Paraphrase the requirement (generates new ways of thinking)
Turn the requirement around 180 degrees (if asked strengths, consider weaknesses).
Broaden the focus (think bigger than question asked)
Change the focus (similar requirement)
Network (fresh minds help show up bias)
What is hindsight bias
What is the best technique for countering it
The idea that you knew it all along and that past events were predictable, therefore future events will not be surprising
Counter it with cone of plausibility
What are five imperatives of critical thinking
Information is used
disciplined use of analytical techniques
continued development of analytical skills
demands an output
- that is usable in a practical way
What is a sound argument
what is the non-deductive equivalent
A valid argument with true premises
A cogent argument is a non-deductive argument with true premises
What is inductive reasoning
drawing upon the slecific to draw a general conclusion..
But.. more in the way we consider inductive reasoning takes evidence from the past or present to support a conclusion of a future prediction.
In other words, the premises are inherently not conclusive facts.
What is the authority falacy
That weight is erroneously given to an ‘authority’
What is the prejudice fallacy
How does it it differ from prejudicial language fallacy and what wider fallacy does it fall under
The idea that just because a source of information is prejudiced it can’t have value
However separately it is referred to as the fallacy of circular reasoning or begging the question in which the conclusion is assumed in the premise
In the prejudicial language fallacy there is use of innovative words with connotations
Eg only no supporter of inequality would claim x
It is actually a form of empty words fallacy
What is the ‘shut up’ fallacy
The idea that an argument is shut down by questioning a persons qualifications to make it. It is also called ‘Circumstantial Ad Hominem’
What is the Empty Words Fallacy
Using unusual words or phraseology to hide a simpler message or confuse or decieve.
What is the Motivation Fallacy
The idea that just because a source has a motive means it can’t be correct
encapsulated by phrase ‘he would say that wouldn’t he’
What is the Equivocation Fallacy
Aka Doublespeak fallacy, this is when you use words with different meanings to twist an argument.
what size is appropriate for brainstorming
what don’t you do during brainstorming
between 6 and 10, to get the right balance between creativity and chaos.
Don’t analyse the ideas during the brainstorm itself, that happens at the end
What is the critical path in critical path analysis
What is CPA’s very similar alterative
How do you build a CPA chart
Those tasks that need to be completed in sequence to complete the project and which together take the longest to complete. tasks that are non-sequential are called parallel.
An close alternative to CPA is PERT - Programme Evaluation and Review Technique
To build a CPA chart you need to list the tasks, the earliest possible start, length and whether it is sequential or parallel, and what it is dependent on.
What type of technique is SWOT (allegedly)
A form of environment scanning
What does Pestle stand for
And stemple?
Political economic security technology legal and environment
Security technology economy military politiz legal environment
What are the three stages of refining the question
Clarification
Widening
Focussing
What are the two question la to have in mind when clarifying the question
What if they are not met
Is it clear what would constitute a good answer
Is it obvious what you would need to know to answer it
If not clarify the precise definitions of terms
What three things should you have in mind when widening the question
What do you do if any of these are met
(Think what answer would disappoint them eg a yes or a no when they wanted an open answer)
Ask
- are they really interested in something else that they assume that you will answer
- if they asked a closed question ( would they want more like yes but…)
- are there hidden assumptions behind the question
If yes ask them to reframe so that it covers the real object of interest or is appropriately open or closed
When focusing the question what should you have in mind
Does the customers decision depend on meeting some threshold or set of thresholds
If so reframe so it covers the narrower set
What is the purpose of analysis
(Three key points)
To reduce customer uncertainties
So that optical courses of action are more likely to be taken or policies adopted
Thinking reducing uncertainties
Like better actions
Likely better policies
Why refine questions
The question might not actually reflect what the Customer wants or could be construed wrongly
leading to disappointment and failure to provide the support needed
Time wasted
What are the four classes of question
What style of techniques are best suited in first instance
What is the goal
Closed present - hypothesis testing
Open present - hypothesis generating
Closed future - scenario testing
Open future - scenario generating
Closed questions end in testing. When answering open questions you ultimately want to come to a closed state. Eg you go to generating scenarios to then evaluating them
What methods are appropriate for hypothesis generating
What are the key reasons (what traps could you fall into if you don’t)
Think about imagination and creativity
You need to think big so as not to miss possibilities
HoriZon scanning (stemple Swot brainstorming)
Without that you could fall foul to confirmation bias (only those hypotheses you already think true)
Of availability heuristic (ideas that are salient rather than likely)
What’ are good hypothesis testing techniques (2)
What do they help with
What might you otherwise fall foul to
ACH
Key Assumptions check
Help you consider what assumptions your hypothesis (lines are based on)
And what range of possibilities are actually consistent with the evidence
Also help identify gaps
If you don’t you might fall foul to anchoring effect
Availability heuristic
Overconfidence in a scenario
Groupthink
What are good scenario generation techniques
What might you fall foul to otherwise
Swot and stemples are good
Red teaming Swot in particular
Combine swot and stemple
Cone of plausibility
If not you might fall foul to groupthink gunsight bias failure of imagination availability and decency effects and mirror imaging (blimey)
What is a good scenario evaluation technique
Why are they good
Raise awareness of what is essential for a high impact outcome to occur. It helps prevent you missing key indicators and being surprised by events
It exposes gaps and limits of reporting and could help show why you might not be able to predict certain things
Main technique is backcasting
What are good techniques for challenging groupthink
KAC
Breaking the mirror (aka red teaming)
What is the availability and recency effects heuristic
Tendency to focus of scenarios that are more memorable or similar to recent events
What is the representative heuristic
Stereotyping
Making judgements based on previous representative examples (real or perceived)
What is the importance of critical thinking - what does do for the analyst
Guards against bias
Minimise irrational thought
Guards against fallacious arguments
What are the attributes of critical thinking (4) think mnemonic
What does it overall challenge
CRAC
Clarity, relevance, accuracy and comprehensiveness
Which all depend on sound evidence and skilful reasoning
It constantly challenges the thought process - assumptions, concepts, implications, consequences and context. From where the five imperatives fall out
