Session 5 Flashcards
EU enlargement
Accession through war?
A simpler, shorter procedure?An “accession through war”, for instance, could mean speeding up the process, or postponing certain stages of the accession to a later moment. The debate is still open. Therefore, it is difficult to develop a template for such a peculiar accession. But we know the issue must be discussed.
EU after first enlargement
Incremental adjustment to address the issues:The Common Fisheries policy: developed in the 1970s, principle of exclusive economic zones established (EEZ), extending up to 200 miles before the coastEuropean Regional Development fund established 1975*The UK budgetary rebate: part of the 1984 Single European Act negotiations
What is EU enlargement?
Enlargement –accession of a new member state -is the result of several processes, most important of which is a process of negotiationson joining the EU, which involves bargaining about accession under conditions of asymmetric interdependenceA process of preparation by the candidate state and the EU through reforms13
Negotiations and accession, the intergovernmental process
Negotiations take place between governments, with main subject how candidate states will comply with the Copenhagen criteria and the acquisEnlargement negotiations are an asymmetric process where the EU’s bargaining power is greater than that of the candidate state*Executive power –of governments and the Council of Ministers -is strengthened by the negotiations, at the expense of parliaments
What is the second important component of enlargement?
The second important component of enlargement is reformReforms to fulfil the accession (Copenhagen) criteriaReforms in response to Union acquisrequirementsEU’s own reforms to anticipate candidates: incremental or far reachinh*Domestic reforms can be also seen as one of the major benefits of enlargement15
EU’s enlargement to the East 2004-2007
Changed principlesMore EU institutional reform in advanceMore policy reform, in advanceExplicit criteria: the Copenhagen criteriaMore profound adaptation of candidates
‘Enlargement is the most ambitious project the EU is undertaking: it is, in fact, the reunification of the European continent, divided in the aftermath of the last world war. Preceding enlargements have taken place in a divided Europe but this one helps achieve the dream of the EU’s founding fathers: to make Europe whole and free’ Wim Kok, Report to the European Commission, March 2003Changed principlesMore EU institutional reform in advanceMore policy reform, in advanceExplicit criteria: the Copenhagen criteriaMore profound adaptation of candidates
Copenhagen criteria 1993
Stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, respect for and protection of minoritiesThe existence of a functioning market economy, as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressures and market forces inside the Union*The ability to take on the obligations of membership including the adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union
EU institutional reforms in anticipation
Treaty of AmsterdamTreaty of Nice: voting weight adjustmentsConstitutional treaty-Lisbon Treaty: further changes in voting weights after 2014Reform of the Common Agricultural policy (Agenda 2000)*Institutional reforms, formal and informal: rise of trilogues
Actors involved in negotiations
Decision-making is intergovernmental and by unanimityCandidate country: team led by chief negotiator representing the government, backed up by various coordination structures, national parliaments and (sometimes) civil societyEU side: The Council (and COREPER), the Commission leads the process and is also a gatekeeper ‘a friend who tells the truth’The European Parliament -assent*The member states –ratification, approval of all stages
Less involved actors in enlargement
National parliaments, domestic political partiesCivil societyThe broader public: public opinionHowever: Enlargement has become politicized and is questioned by domestic publics
Enlargement governance and reform
The EU interacts with a number of actors next to governments to support reform and adjustment: this is enlargement governanceInteractions ensure success in reform, common standards setting, understanding*The strength of domestic civil society and its key norms can contribute to a positive outcome to the process of reforms
Features of enlargement governance
Main tool: EU conditionality relies on credibility of threats and promises of accession by the EUOther tools: capacity buildingEconomic support is enhanced by increased investment (FDI) in anticipation of accessionEnlargement leads to (some) economic convergence
EU as a convergence machine WB 2012
“One can say without exaggeration that Europe invented a ‘convergence machine’, taking in poor countries and helping them become high income economies” Golden Growth report, 2012 IndermitGill, WB’s chief economist for Europe and Central Asia
How do enlargement negotiations work?
A candidate country submits an applicationCouncil asks Commission for an Opinion on the applicationThe EU rules, policies and case law (the acquis) are divided in chapters, (nowadays united in 6 clusters)The Commission provides candidates with a questionnaire regarding all EU policies to establish their readiness (‘screening’ or analysis of readiness).Screening results in setting of reform priorities by cluster.Commission delivers opinion to Council (European) Council grants candidate status (unanimously)Pre-conditions (if any) are met by candidate state, based on Commission assessmentCouncil can decide to open negotiations (unanimously)
Asymmetry in negotiations
The negotiations are bilateral, but the transformation is largely on the candidate’s sideEU policies and structures adapt only incrementallyThe EU employs conditionality to keep countries on the path of reformMember states pursue their own interests and collectively externalize internal problems
What are the 6 clusters?
FundamentalsInternal marketCompetitiveness and inclusive growthGreen agenda and sustainable connectivityResources, agriculture and cohesionExternal relations
elements of EU’s transformative power
Copenhagen criteria and enlargement conditionality‘Technocratic’ and ‘objective’ assessments by the Commission: merit basedCapacity building: support for administrative capacityEnlargement driven financial and technical assistance Safeguard clausesEnhanced pre-enlargement strategy, including a number of instruments*Flexible enlargement methodology (since 2020
Conditionality, monitoring and money as elements of transformative power
Regular reports on candidates’ progressMonitoring reports: ad hocSafeguard clauses –can remain up to 3 years after accessionMoney: substantial support and even bigger investment: FDI levels skyrocketed in CEE
Changed approach of 2020
Focus remains on fundamentals: rule of law, democratic and economic reforms and alignment with EU core valuesStrategic communication to raise awareness and ‘tackle malign third country influence’Stronger political steering: live up to commitments in publicIntegration into the EU’s internal marketJob creation, improvement of investment climate, stopping brain drainCredibility: focusing on ’trust, mutual confidence and clear commitment on both sides’ (Commission communication 2020)
Changed 2020 approach continued
Major adjustment of enlargement policy in 2020, driven by French non-paperAiming to re-gain lost credibilityTowards external governance: permeable borders and gradual participation in EU in various settingsA more developmental approach: EU investment plan for the Western Balkans presented October 2020
2 sides and 2 problems of credibility
Western Balkans: leaders ‘must deliver more credibly on their commitment to implement the fundamental reforms required’Serbia: environmental, democracy, media decline and backslidingEuropean Union must ‘deliver on its unwavering commitment to a merit based process’ (Commission communication 2020)EU: Bulgaria’s veto on North Macedonia’s start of negotiations and delay also for Albania
Critical assessment of enlargement as an EU tool
Extended stability and promoted EU values in 2000-2010, even though these are challenged today by rising authoritarianism -2010 onwardsDeveloped as a ‘technocratic approach’ till 2020Relies on conditionality for encouraging rule and norm adoption by candidatesInvolves capacity building to help candidates converge towards EU standards of governance and regulation (transfer of funds and expertise)*Extends the EU’s regulatory framework beyond its borders: by definition, ‘external governance
Dilemma 1; enlargement governance vs geopolitical decisions
Enlargement is a process that is highly structured, with specific institutional involvement: ‘firm, merit based process’to prepare candidates states ‘to meet all the commitments of membership’ (European Commission Communication 2020)A slow process with stages and steps of negotiation, reform and adoption of the EU’s acquis‘Geopolitics abhors a vacuum’Russia’s war against Ukraine and Crimea annexation juxtaposed to EU policies, e.g. Association agreementOther powers’ investment, loans and alliances take faster pathways and these powers gain influence*EU’s effectiveness in enlargement affected by the presence of other actors as well: China, Russia, Turkey
Enlargement governance vs Chinese systemic rival
China’s strategy in the Balkans: the Belt and Road (BRI) investments and projects:12 billion euro Chinese banks loans, 60% of all China’s bank loans are for the Western BalkansFocus on Serbia: 1/3 of all Chinese loans in the region are in Serbia, FDI grows dramatically*Different -intergovernmental modes of governance: special laws regulate public tenders when Chinese projects are involved (Zweers 2020)
Disinformation and destabilization from other powers
Serbia’s agreements with Russia under President VucicDeadlock in BiH, opposing positions of nationalist leadersMateaJerkovic(2023) ‘Russia needs the unstable Balkans’ in Dzankic, Kacarskaand Keil*Dodik (May 2023): ‘…the right policy today is to remain neutral in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, not to impose sanctions on Russia and not to side with the West against anyone’
Dilemma 2; reform priorities vs rent seeking
Serbia and Montenegro have backslidden to ‘partly free’ from 2018-Data on state capture shows that democratic decline has gone hand in hand with higher levels of state capture (Gjoksi2023)‘Montenegro paradox’ 32 chapters open for negotiation, 3 chapters closed (finalized) in 8 years (Mirel2022)Enlargement’s main purpose is to empower candidate states to become stronger economies, consolidated democracies with rule of law*Reforms are painfully slow or not happening at all, as political leaders engage in rent seeking and state capture eroding democratic institutions, while the economies decline
