SEM 1 - LEC 1 - CONSUMPTION Flashcards

1
Q

what’s the national income identity given by

A

Y = C + I + G + NX

where:
Y = GDP
C = Consumption
I = Investment
G = Government purchases
NX = Net exports = Exports − Imports
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2
Q

what’s the definition of consumption

A

Household final consumption expenditure covers all purchases made by resident households (home or abroad) to meet their everyday needs: food, clothing, housing services (rents), energy, transport, durable goods (cars), spending on health, on leisure and on miscellaneous services.

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3
Q

what was Keynes general theory and what were his conjectures about the consumption function that were based on introspection and casual observation

A

1 The marginal propensity to consume (the amount consumed out of an additional dollar of income) is between zero and one.
2 The ratio of consumption to income, called the average propensity to consume falls as income rises.
3 Income is the primary determinant of consumption and interest rate does not have an important role.

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4
Q

how can you write the Keynesian consumption function

A

c = c ̄ + βy

where:
c is consumption, y is disposable income, c ̄ is a
constant and β is the marginal propensity to consume.

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5
Q

how do you work out the average propensity to consume

A
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6
Q

what does the Keynesian consumption function look like diagrammatically

A

MPC is slope of line

APC is slope of a line drawn from the origin to a point on the consumption function

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7
Q

what were the two anomalies that arose with the Keynesian consumption function

A

secular stagnation. - as incomes in the economy grow over time, households would consume a smaller and smaller fraction of their incomes → the low consumption would lead to an inadequate demand for goods and services resulting in a long depression of indefinite duration.
In reality, the conjecture of Keynes that the average propensity to consume would fall as income rose appeared not to hold.

Second anomaly: Kuznets found that the ratio of consumption to income was remarkably stable from decade to decade, despite the large increases in income over the period he studied.
Again, the conjecture of Keynes that the average propensity to consume would fall as income rose appeared not to hold.

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8
Q

what is the starting point of the neoclassical consumption model

A

people may earn income today and in the future, they consume today and in the future, and a key decision they have to make is how much to consume today versus how much to consume in the future.

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9
Q

what is the two main elements of the neoclassical consumption model

A

1 intertemporal budget constraint;

2 utility function.

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10
Q

what do these two budget constraints show us (neoclassical)

A

Both the equations have the form “consumption plus savings equals income”.

Assume that as of this moment a consumer has financial wealth equal to ftoday .
This financial wealth includes the agent’s savings account balance and all their holdings of stocks and bonds.
The agent earns labour income today, ytoday , and in the future, yfuture . Letting c and R denote consumption and interest rate,

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11
Q

what’s the intertemporal budget constraint of an agent

A

do it by combining ytoday (2) and cfuture equations. (3)

  1. rearrange cfuture so you get ffuture= cfuture - yfuture over 1+R
  2. substitute that expression into the ytoday expression and rearrange to get the following
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12
Q

why does the agent chooses her consumption today and in the future in terms of utility

A

to maximize her utility. If the agent consumes some amount c in a given period, we assume that she receives u(c) units of utility

assume that the agent gets more utility whenever her consumption is higher, but that consumption runs in diminishing returns → consumption exhibits diminishing marginal utility.
(Diminishing marginal utility is reflected in the curvature of the utility function, which gets flatter and flatter as consumption increases.)

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13
Q

what does the utility function relative to consumption look like diagrammatically

A
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14
Q

what’s the lifetime utility function

A
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15
Q

solve the utility maximisation problem given the utility function and intertemporal constraint

A
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16
Q

if you rearrange this equation what do you get

A

the Euler equation for consumption - explains how interest rates and growth rates are linked.

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17
Q

how do you solve the Euler equation

A

Equation (9) says that the agent chooses her consumption so that the growth rate of consumption is the product of the discount parameter and the interest rate that she can earn on her savings.

If the agent is very impatient, she places less weight on future utility (a lower β), and consumption growth is lower.

In contrast, a higher interest rate raises the return to saving, and consumption growth is higher.

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18
Q

how do you solve the two unknowns in the Euler equation Ctoday and Cfuture

A

The agent consumes one-half of her wealth today and saves the other half and, in the future, she can consume the remainder of her wealth together with the interest it has earned.

19
Q

How does consumption respond to a rise in the interest rate?

A
20
Q

what are the substitution and income effect of a rise in R on consumption

A

􏰀 The substitution effect of a higher interest rate is that current consumption is now more expensive (because saving will lead to even more consumption in the future), so consumers will tend to reduce their consumption today and increase it tomorrow.
􏰀 The income effect means that the consumers are now richer (because their current saving leads to more income in the future), which makes them want to consume more today and tomorrow.
􏰀 Because both effects increase the amount of future consumption, we can conclude that an increase in the real interest rate raises future consumption. However, these two effects have opposite impacts on current consumption, so the increase in the interest rate could either lower or raise it.

21
Q

what’s the permanent income hypothesis theory on consumption

A

the PIH is one implication of the neoclassical consumption model.

The intuition behind the permanent-income result is that consumers wish to smooth their consumption over time.

22
Q

show the permanent income hypothesis diagrammatically

A

Assume that β = 1 and R = 0.

Assume that the agent could consume c1 today and c2 in the future
or could consume the average of these two values in both periods.

Because of diminishing marginal utility, the agent prefers to smooth consumption and take the average in both periods.

23
Q

in the PIH theory what happens if the interest rates increases

A

From the Euler equation, we know that this change leads
consumption to grow over time.

Because of the agent’s desire to smooth consumption, she must be paid a positive interest rate not to keep consumption constant.

24
Q

How does the agent respond to a temporary increase in income? (PIH THEORY)

A
25
Q

what’s the Ricardian approach to the government

A

is that consumption depends on the present discounted value of taxes and is invariant to the timing of taxes.

26
Q

According to the Ricardian equivalence, will a tax cut today, financed by an increase in taxes in the future affect consumption?

A

no

27
Q

what’s the constraint on consumption for individuals with no financial wealth and no access to credit given by

A

ctoday ≤ ytoday

indicates that the agent’s consumption is constrained by the lack of borrowing opportunities to be no greater than her income.

28
Q

If the agent is already consuming less than her income, then this constraint will be not binding.
However, what if the agent wishes to borrow

A

then the constraint binds, and her consumption is constrained to equal her income.

The marginal propensity to consume from an extra dollar changes significantly when borrowing constraints are present.

29
Q

what equation do we have according to the random walk view of consumption

A
30
Q

what’s the intuition of the consumption as a random walk theory

A

Intuition: if consumption is expected to change, the individual can do a better job of smoothing consumption.

Therefore, the individual adjusts her current consumption to the point where consumption is not expected to change.

31
Q

what can the precautionary-saving motive can lead consumers to behave like

A

can lead consumers to behave as if they face borrowing constraints even when they do not.
􏰀 Consumers with low income save instead of borrowing;
􏰀 Their consumption may be especially sensitive to their current income.

32
Q

what’s the life-cycle model of consumption

A

This model suggests that consumption is based on average lifetime income rather than on income at any given age.

When people are young and in school, their consumption is typically higher than their income (they may receive money from their parents).
As people age and their income rises, their consumption rises more slowly and they save more.
When they retire, income falls, but consumption remains relatively stable: people use the saving they accumulated while middle-aged

33
Q

Consider a consumer who expects to live another T years, has wealth of f and expects to earn income y per year until she retires p years from now.

What level of consumption will the consumer choose if she wishes to maintain a smooth level of consumption over the course of her life?

For simplicity, we assume that the interest rate is zero.

A

The consumer’s lifetime resources are composed by initial wealth, f , and lifetime earnings, p × y .

34
Q

in the the life-cycle consumption function what’s the average propensity to consume

A

Because wealth does not vary proportionately with income from person to person or from year to year, we should find that high income corresponds to a low average propensity to consume when we look at data across individuals or over short periods of time.

However, over long periods of time, from decades to decades, wealth and income grow together, resulting in a constant ratio f/y and thus constant average propensity to consume.

35
Q

how did modiglianas life cycle model of consumption solve the consumption puzzle by Kuznets

A

For any given level of wealth, the life-cycle consumption function looks like the one Keynes suggested → but this function holds only in the short-run when wealth is constant.

In the long-run, as wealth increases, the consumption function shifts upward → this upwards shift prevents the average propensity to consume from falling as income increases.

36
Q

If consumption depends on wealth, then what does an increase in wealth do to the consumption function

A

moves upwards

37
Q

what’s leverage

A

the ratio of household debt to financial assets.

38
Q

what’s the debt service ratio

A

The DSR is the ratio of interest payments and amortisation to income.

39
Q

why can credit demand increase

A

Unconstrained households borrow in order to smooth consumption before an anticipated increase in income or after an unexpected temporary drop in income (e.g., illness, accidents, short-term unemployment).

Households borrow to finance investment in illiquid assets with high long-term returns such as housing.

Credit demand increases when households are optimistic about income prospects, or because interest rates are low.

40
Q

what combination has lifted debt-financed demand for housing, either for own use or as an investment.

A

The post-GFC period has seen extraordinary monetary accommodation, very low borrowing rates and low returns on safe assets.

41
Q

in terms of credit supply what can favourable supply conditions do and also heightened competition against lenders

A

Favourable supply conditions can also boost credit to households.

In the UK, heightened competition among lenders seems to have resulted in a relaxation of lending standards.

42
Q

what can households do in order to avoid a cut in consumption

A

1 the household can draw down savings: assets such as current account balances, stocks or mutual funds can easily be converted into cash;

2 the household can adjust its debt: (i) it can try to reduce its existing debt burden by renegotiating or refinancing; (ii) it can default strategically; (iii) it can obtain additional (unsecured) credit.

43
Q

what are the several characteristics cut in consumption affected of household debt

A

1 A household with high leverage is less able to adjust by borrowing, as lenders would be less forthcoming (borrowing constraints): households with higher leverage cut spending by more than those with a lower one.
2 If debt is used to finance illiquid wealth, the cut in consumption is higher: for example, large shares of wealth in housing (i.e., mortgage debt).
3 A greater sensitivity of household’s liabilities to the interest rate implies that the impact on consumption is larger.
4 High debt (relative to assets) can make a household less mobile, and hence less able to find a new or better job in another town or region: for example, homeowners may be tied down by mortgages on properties that have depreciated in value.

44
Q

what can interest rate hikes do in a high debt economy (monetary policy)

A

cause aggregate expenditure to contract more than cuts cause it to expand.
This is because credit constrained borrowers cut consumption a lot in response to interest rate hikes, as their debt burdens increase.

In contrast, they do not expand it as much in response to cuts because they prefer to save a fraction of their gains in order to avoid being credit-constrained again in the future.