SECTION 3 Flashcards
The resource curse can be defined by ________, the symptoms are ________ (6)
super abundance of resource cause inflation and lack of investment in other sectors Symptoms: resources wealth, slow growth, high poverty, poor governance, work states, revolution and conflict
What are the causes of the resource curse
income volatility, rent seeking, patronage, and living off the land, Dutch disease
The problem of resource abundance is not in its ________, its in ________
presence/quantity the RENTS generated by the richness
What are the 3 causes of Income Volatility in resource curse
- commodity price variation (it can vary very rapidly and make it difficult to manage)
- -rate of extraction (first very high than would decrease through time)
- Timing of receipt ( government payments modes varying)
What are the consequences of Income Volatility in resource curse
- -Cycles of economic boom and bust -
- Government spending is cyclical
- -Borrowing money during boom times
Define the political economy of rent seeking
- want to tap into the stream of wealth generated by oil - regular market is stifle- political economy is centred only on rent capture, which creates corruption
What are the two paired factors in rent seeking, patronage, and living off the land Define them
-Overconsumption (living off the oil capital, spending the generated oil capital) -Underinvestment (In human capital, no school built, spending only to maintain position of power because wealth does not come from educated people)
What are the symptoms of dutch disease
-Booming resource sector -Inflation and Currency appreciation (overvalued) -Withering manufacturing/agricultural sector
What is the boom dynamic
the non-boom sector is not doing well because people what to work in the oil sector
Where does the term “dutch disease” comes from
In the 1960, Netherlands discovered gas but then the economy did not benefit (manufacturing and agri sector declining)
What are the economic causes of the dutch disease
- boom vs non-boom sector
- Tradable vs nontradeables (?)
- Resource allocation effect (Shifting of capital and labor into the boom sector )
- Spending effect ( arises because there is more money so people buy more but are investing on import, not the helping the local economy
Resource allocation effect and Spending effect cause _________
deform the economy around the boom sector (both private and state capital)
The resource curse makes the economy ____________
more and more vulnerable to the price of the resource
What is an example of the downfall of a boom economy
Case of Amazon rubber boom (huge boom until the price of rubber falls, the economy around the sector - 3 decades of development vanish away)
What are Norway’s strategy to avoid the resource curse
- Sovereign wealth fund (one of the most important fund to this day- used to set aside the oil generated resources, this money can not be in vested in anything but oil activities)
- High taxations of oil profits (78% tax rate, State very involved in oil- it delays the development of oil field)
- Collective and transparent wage negotiations via government ( determining wage rates)
- Protection of manufacturing sector ( invested in the manufacturing sector related to oil- invest in people who can help oil extortion, became a world leader in explorations)
Why is norway an exceptional case
- small coutures,
- strong democracy,
- low corruption,
- media scrutiny,
- strong legal system
- accountable bureaucracy
What is the resource situation in Nigeria
oil sectors brings massive wealth but the average person gets little and less through time- poverty incidence increased as more money came into the country
What are the options for Nigeria
- sovereign wealth fund (state being very mad because “poverty” is urgent, need for the fund to be out of the hands of the politicians because if not it will be spent- need to set aside AND protect)
- Transparency and accountability (extractive industries transparency initiative, EITI —> knowing about the flow of money to have a certain level of accountability , but its really hard to get the government and companies to release- facts may not be enough)
- Direct distribution mechanism (Oil2Cash- money distributed to the population and taxable, politicians who tax you are available to you) -
- Unconditional vs condition cash transfers - it is hard to do while it the political dynamic started
What are the causes of Food price spikes
- The price of oil ; Closely linked tot he price of food because we need fuel to produce food and to transport it
- As the oil price increase (or other fossil fuels), the demand for biofuel would rise as well, affecting the incentive for the farmers to shift from “consumptive food” to produce biofuel like ethanol, by farming sugar cane, maize, etc) cuz wages are better
- Adverse weather (climate shock)
- When the price of food rises, it creates a sort of panic among countries that would motivate them to ban exports (ex ; 6% of the rice is exported)
What are the consequences of food price spikes
-Undernourishment and impoverishment (angels law=spending is constant but in poorest community this spending represents maybe 40% of income spending) -Food riots and revolt (creates unrest, a politician nightmare- correlation between wheat prices are social unrest, Haiti, Madagascar, Bread in Arab Spring. ) -Greater policy attention (investing in agriculture)
Describe dietary transition
income increase, middle increase leads to shift from tubers (sweet potato) and coarse grains to cereals + shift from plant based to animal products
Describe changes in food retailing
advent of supermarkets (example of South-America) = increase in quality, availability of course and a decrease in the price (especially for less nutritious food), 60% of food in South-America flows through supermarkets (which happened very quickly) - which leads concerns for health- excess weight does not mean wealth anymore, it is caused by cheap junk food amongst other things
What are the sources of growth in terms of food supply
- New land (extensification)
- -Input intensification (more controlled example fertilizers) (example: Green Revolution)
- -Increased total factor productivity, more efficient farming (ratio of total commodity output to total inputs used production, example: precision farming, intimate knowledge of the land)
2 countries that are really good in precision increased productivity
China and Brazil
What are the 5 challenges for Global Agriculture
1.Crop Yield and Closing the yield gap 2. Climate Change and crop yields 3. Dietary Change 4.Food Waste 5. World Agricultural trade
What is a yield gap
difference the yield you are getting and the potential yields you could get (gaps are very significant, example Mekong yield are 10 times greater than Africa for rice BUT That yield gap should only be determined for specific locations) average yield gap = huge losses
What are the causes of the yield gap
techno constrains (knowledge, access to seeds), marketing, risks of failure (to poor to try higher yields because more risk of fail), price regulation, geographical factors (gotta compare in the same land)
he yield increases are starting to _____, that is why we try to use_____
taper off GMOS
What are the concerns of climate change on agriculture
(adverse effect of food prod and availability temperatures (warmer will decrease prod of crops, rise will be bad for wheat and corn), crop damaging weather events, reduced H2O, shortened growing seasons)
Because of climate change, we see a ______ of production because of _____ and_____ productivity because of _____
decrease - heat stress increase - Co2 (plants need CO2 to grow)
Describe the challenge of dietary change
-Livestock consume about 55% of grains and 75% of land -If shifted to direct consumption , we could feed an extra 4 billion people - but the world is going the other way -We would need to double the area of crop land in the world to feed 9 billion people having a western diet
Globally _____ of our food is lost
30-40%
What are the different types (2) of food waste
Developing (post harvest losses- on farms or transport can be as much as 50% of the crop) vs industrialized countries (it is the consumers who waste food)
Less than_____ of food flows through trade because ______
20% (bulky and hard to move around AND limited by tariffs by quotas and quality standards)
Countries want to ______ their agricultural market
protect
reasons for countries to protect their agricultural markets
- food security of sovereignty ,
- do not want to compete or depend or an other countries ,
- and social policy of protect farming sector
- want to stabilize markets
Protection of agricultural sectors leads to
- Enormous subsidizing of domestic agriculture in industrialized countries (over production)
- Underinvestment in developing countries
Freer trade in agricultural commodities would lead to ______ but _____
lower food prices at the cost of food security and sovereignty
Rise in global acquisition of land (land oversea) took off at the same as ________ in ______
food price peak 2008
Land scale can be seen as “good” for development because
maybe agriculture in development countries can be kickstarted by the land acquisition which would increase productivity and revenue
Foreign buys land from farmer and lends it to them - which is expected to __________
give a bigger income to farmer
Long ______ of crop production in the south for the north for example ___________
(colonial) legacy ( sugar, tea, coffee)
What is different in the current land rush compares to the long colonial legacy of foreign crop production
- size and frequency (large and rapid rise in the number)
- new players (china, Malaysia UAE, India)
- Disillusionment with smallholder farming (hard to promote and work with smallholders because huge transition costs at small scale)
- Rising enthusiasm for large scale agricultural
- Vertical integration of agribusinessiness (farming) with the production and marketing, moving further up the supply chain to have secure supply of food
- no big contracts for farmer anymore
- reliability
- Land as Strategic asset
- New crops (biofuels and carbon forest (forest of the carbon they contain and keep out of atmosphere, pay people to reforest land, not cutting down, leaving them standing or reforest) both good for economy of scale)
What are the drivers of the global rush
- High food prices (agriculture is more attractive because promise of higher returns)
- Competing land use and land scarcity (people are worried global land is becoming scarce
- biofuels, reserves, rubber.. maybe we should buy farm land now and not wait ?)
- protect food supply
- strategic asset
- Low returns on other investments ( low banking interests, stock volatility, “what am I gonna invest it?” Turns out that land is solid investment)
Why is land good investment
- hedge against inflation
- Land provides incomes
- appreciation value
- Returns not correlated with equity market (stock bouncing but price of land is steady)
- Farmland price rising (America doubled, South-Am. 5-7 times) (appreciating rates have exceeded the one of residential and commercial) Why ? Low risk activity, people attracted to areas with large potential for growth
Explain the difference between media reports vs. Inventories
(press overestimates the mouth of land that is actually transacted- hard to have a good estimate of actual land purchased (time frame shifting, not clear about what land, minimum size restrictions varying, offer different than deal)
Explain the International land coalitions “land matrix”
NGO website- matrix that tries to track land holding and transactions, major focus in the debate whether land acquisition is good or not, matter of transparency)
Africa as focus for land acquisition for large scale acquisitions (describe each with %)
-Food prod (34%) -Non-food crop (cotton?) (26%) -flex crop (biofuels ?) (23%) -multiple uses (17%)
Who are the main actors in land acquisition
-nationals (urban elites+ diaspora): press tends to overlooked them but very important, they have citizenship (perhaps left the land might use remittences) in the country and participate in different ways to purchase land, very large share of the number of acquisition but not HUGE areas -Regional foreign investors (china purchasing in south-east Asia, Africa, gulf sates for example- primarily out of concern for food security as they are very reliant on food exports and have an expansing population, they know that food prices disrupt, they need to ensure cheap prices -Global foreign investors : reaching well beyond their territory -private companies, sovereign, wealth funds, pension funds, hedge funds ( top 10 buyers, USA, Malaysia, Arab Emirates, Uk, India, Singapore….) (top 10 bought in Africa, papua new , Indonesia, south sudan)
land grab is mostly done by _______ regardless of conception of _______
nationals “north grabbing the south”
-Canada is not yet a ______ in global land rush
major player
Why shift to mega farms
- machinery use ( more efficient)
- quick processing (more quickly)
- demanding product standards (more easily)
- farming is expensive when you become bigger, it is easier to meet standards have more market power -this is why bio struggles
- easier to access credit and insurance (half the rate of local in Argentina)
- New crops are expensive to get going (gmo eg)
- Lack of local available labor (move to mechanization)
- Public policy bias towards large farm (state prefers to deal with ONE large firm than a BUNCH of times)
- political power is greater ; the more land you have, policies to provide cheap land and capital, r and d becomes substitute, whole systems turns to large farms
What are the concerns with current global rush
-Rich Countries capture land from poor and vulnerable people (very small share of land owned by actual small farmers AND disposition of small farmers) -Food security in food-insecure regions (food security of these countries at risk) -Employment opportunities limited for the people pushed off the land (highly mechanized , no need for people unless very skilled ) -Loss of smallholder farming -Water “grabbing” with land ( getting land but also locking up water)
Why are big land acquisition frustrating for small farmers
*buying up the very best land, leaving the marginal land to everybody else) - poor follow through, put the fence and just sit there which is WRONG is the peasant ethos (land is life) so locked up land is so wrong
larger mouth of land purchased where there is the ______________
weakest land government
What is to be done about the global land rush
- Land purchases restriction (but sometimes doesn’t acknowledge the nationals grabbing)
- Strengthen land governance and better manage land-investments (land need to be registered which is long and expensive, maps are often poor, no reporting sales BUT will be tracked in the future block chain solution
- Guideline for best practices (ethical guidelines)
- Level playing field for family farms (still need room for small farmers if not cities are going to explode, but very challenging because people don’t believe in it anymore)
Resource curse
Countries with large natural resources are often performing worst in term of economic development and good governance than countries that have fewer resources
Symptoms of resource curse (6)
- Resource wealth - Slow growth - High poverty - Poor governance - Revolution - Conflict
3 causes of resource curse
- income volatility 2. rent seeking 3. dutch disease 4. low production cost 5. own by states
who avoid Resource curse ?
developed countries (especially norway)
Income volatility ; 3 causes
- commodity price variation, can vary very rapidly and make it difficult to manage 2. Rate of extraction (first high than would decrease through time) 3. Timing of receipt (derives from the nature of agreements between the producing companies and the gov. Not always perfect schedule
Consequence of income volatility
- boom-bust economic cycle 2. borrowing money during boom time
Resource rent
difference between the production cost and what you fet on the market e.g. saudi arabia extract oil 1$ and sell at 70$
Patronage ;
system where someone in a position of authority gives jobs or privilege to other people in return of support
Rent seeking
the sector is so lucrative you want to be in it. attractiveness, the other sectors are being forgotten imply patronage
2 implications of rent seeking
- overconsumption ; spending a lot and living off the capital that have been generated by the oil. you spend the wealth amongs the most powerful people 2. underinvestment you spend money to preserve your position of power without investing in education, infrastructure or health
Dutch Disease
A sudden rise in the value of natural resource exports produces am appreciation in the real exchange rate it makes exporting non-natural resources more difficult and competing with imports impossible
DUTCH DISEASE SYMPTOMS
- Booming resource sector 2. inflation 3. currency appreciation 4. withering manufacturing and agricultural sectors 5. people moves because of high wages jobs
dutch disease example
amazon 1910 ; florishing economy $$$$$ 1940 ; can’t compete with SEasia so price decrease as well as economy
Nigeria case ;
1960 ; largest oil reserve in Africa people are getting poor as money come in the country option ; 1. sovereign wealth fund 2. transparency and accountability 3. direct distribution mechanism ; let people decide
Why spikes are important (food system)
prices spikes are important because the price of food is inelastic ; - people will buy the same amount whether the prices rises or fall - Supply side is also inelastic beucause it takes a lot of time for the food to grow, animal to mature, A small change in the supply can lead to a jump of the food price
Causes of spikes
- The price of oil it is closely linked to the price of food cuz we need fuel to produce food, transport it. the demand for biofuel would rise as well, affecting the incentive for the farmers to shift from “consumptive” food to produce biofuels like ethanol. 2. Adverse weather 3. Panic when the prices of food rise ; countries ban exports (i.e. only 6%of rice is exported worldwide)
Food demand ; what we see
transitions as the prices increase, as income increase
transition of food demand
- shift from tuber crops (sweet potatoes, casava, manioc) and coarse grain (like millet), toward cereals (wheat corn rice) 2. from plant-based diet to animal product (livestock revolution) especially in China where it has happened at amuch more fast pace than the US
Retailing
How food is sold affect what type of food is sold - supermarkets were establish in many country rapidly
supermarkets leads to…
- increase in quality and availability of food 2. less nutritious food availability 3. decrease in the price of food
3 drivers of food demand
- increase of population 2. dietary transition 3. food retailing
Food supply : increase in…
- new land/extentification ; 2. Input intensification 3. total factor productivity (TFP)
around 1990 (agriculture)
shift from extentificationANDintensification to Total factor productivity
new land/extentification ;
Bringing new land into production to produce more food
input intensification
High yield varieties, irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides
total factor productivity (TFP)
You are getting more for less Efficient farming instead of spraying fertilizers everywhere, you apply it very precisely + typographical survey, uses of drones
Five challenge of global agriculture
- Crop yield and yield gap 2. climate change 3. diet changes 4. food wastes 5. world agriculture trade
Crop yield
the amount of the agricultural production harvested per unit of land area
yield gap
the DIFFERENCE between irrigated crops, rainfed crops or partially irrigated crops and the actual yield difference between what you get and what you could have produce eg. 4 tones of rice when you could have produce 7 ton, gap yield = 3tons amount of productivity being lost for all kind of reasons
causes of yield gap
- technological constraint (technology, skills, knowledge, access) 2. market, marketing 3. prices regulation 4. risk
climate change (agriculture)
Brings negative climate events that decrease the productivity drought, heat, strokes, early frost