Section 1 - R3 - Capital Markets Expectations Flashcards

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1
Q

Subject of the CME Topic (Explain)

A

Discuss the impact of expectations in building a portfolio

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2
Q

CME Framework (List)

A
  1. Specify the set of expectations needed (time horizon, historical records)
  2. Search the historical record
  3. Specify methods to be used
  4. Determine the best sources of information
  5. Interpretation of current investment environment
  6. Monitor outcomes and compare with the expectations
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3
Q

Describe good forecasts

A

They are (i) consistent, (ii) unbiased, (iii) objective, (iv) well supported, (iv) minimum forecast errors

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4
Q

Forecasts Limitations (List)

A
  1. Eco data limitations
  2. Data measurement error and biases (transcription, survivorship bias, smoothed data)
  3. Limitations of Historical Estimates (past is a starting point but does not dictate future)
  4. Risk Ex-Post =/= Risk Ex-Ante
  5. Analyst Bias (data mining, time period bias)
  6. Failure to account for conditioning information
  7. Misinterpretate correlation
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5
Q

Psychological Traps (List)

A
  1. Anchoring Trap
  2. Status Quo Trap
  3. Confirming Evidence Trap
  4. Overconfidence
  5. Prudence
  6. Availability
  7. Model Uncertainty
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6
Q

Exogenous Shocks (List of Impacts)

A
  • Positive or negative
  • New Products and Technology (iPhone)
  • Geopolitics (Ucrânia)
  • Natural Disasters (Terremoto)
  • Financial crises
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7
Q

Economic Growth Factors (List)

A
  1. Labor Inputs: ↑ Size and ↑ Participation
  2. Labor Productivity: ↑ Capital and ↑ TFP
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8
Q

Market Value of Equity (Formula)

A

Vet = GDPt * Skt * PEt, where

Vet = Value of Equities in t
GDPt = Nominal GDP in t
Skt = Share % of Profits in Economy
PEt = Pricing Adjustment

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9
Q

Economic Forecast Types (List)

A
  1. Econometric Modelling
  2. Economic Indicators (leading, lagging)
  3. Checklist items (Moody’s Country Report)
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10
Q

Business Cycle (List of Moments)

A
  1. Initial Recovery: Govt YTM at bottom, stocks rally, riskier assets outperform
  2. Early Upswing: ↑ Confidence, ↑ Momentum, no π, ↓ Unemployment
  3. Late Upswing: Output gap closes, π ↑, Unemployment @ bottom, ↑ Wages
  4. Slowdown: ↓ Confidence, Bonds rally, π strong
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11
Q

Inflation Impacts per Asset Class

A
  1. Cash: zero duration, π protected
  2. Bonds: hurt with ↑ rates because ↓ prices fall
  3. Stocks: π in line with expectations already priced in. Little effect.
  4. Real Estate: π already in expectations. Increasing inflation benefits asset class.
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12
Q

Taylor Rule (Formula)

A

Rtarget = Rneutral + π expected + 0.5(GDPe - GDPtrend) + 0.5(πe - π target)

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13
Q

International Interactions in Economics (List of Channels)

A
  1. Trade
  2. Foreign Direct Investment
  3. Capital Flows
  4. Interest Rate / FX Linkages
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14
Q

Fixed Income Returns

A

IH < MacDur: Price (Capital Gain) dominates Reinvestment

IH > MacDur: Reinvestment dominates Price

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15
Q

Asset Return: Building Blocks Approach (Formula & Concept)

A

Return = Rf + Term Premium + Credit Premium + Liquidity Premium

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16
Q

Emerging Markets Risks

A
  1. Economic: Ability to pay
  2. Dependancy: on few industries
  3. Trade Restrictions
  4. Poor fiscal controls
  5. Political risks: regime change
  6. Legal risks: weak laws, enforcement of contracts
17
Q

Forecast of Equities (List of Methods)

A
  1. Historical Statistics Approach: samples imprecise
  2. DCFs: Sensible to rates, CFs uncertain, terminal value
  3. Risk Premium Approach:
    3.a. Risk Premium Approach
    3.b. Equilibrium Approach
18
Q

DCF Model: Grinold-Kroner (Formula)

A

E(Rp) = (D/P - Δ%S) + %E + %ΔP/E, onde

Δ%S: Shares in the Mkt (IPO = negative)

Δ%P/E: Ajuste de Preço

%ΔE: Earnings

19
Q

Equilibrium Approach Formula

A

a. Global Markets: RPi GM = ρi,GM * σi*Sharpe GM

b. Segregated: RPi = σi*Sharpe market

c. Attribute weights

20
Q

Forecast of Real Estate (List of Issues)

A
  1. Physical asset
  2. Heterogeneous
  3. Imóvel
  4. Trade infrequently
21
Q

Boom-Bust Cycle in Real Estate (Describe)

A
  1. Perceptions of Rising
  2. Development of New Property
  3. Overbuild
  4. Takes years for market to absorb excess
22
Q

Real Estate Valuation (Formulas)

A

Formula 1: k = NOI / P
Formula 2: E(Re) = NOI / P + g - Δ%(NOI / P)

23
Q

Forecast of FX rates (Formulas)

A
  1. Trade Flows Impacts: explains little
  2. Relative PPP: only holds in LT ΔSf/d = πf - πd
  3. Competitiveness & Sustainability of the Current Account
24
Q

FX Impact of Portfolio Balance (Concept)

A

Countries with trade deficits finance their trades with increased borrowing

25
Q

FX Impact of Portfolio Composition given Time Horizon

A

Short Term: ~Fixed
Long Term: May change (CNY v. USD)

26
Q

Forecast Volatility Estimators (List of Methods and Formulas)

A
  1. Sample Statistics:
    - Use VCV matrix
    - For small samples, can not estimate VCV (estimation errors)
    - Many inputs
  2. VCV Matrix from Factors
    - Many assets, few risk factors
    - Less estimation error
    - Improve cross-sectional consistency
    - May handle large # of assets
    - May be biased and unconsistent
  3. Shrinkage Estimation of VCV Matrix
    VCV = (wSample) +[ (1-w)Target]
  4. Unsmooth Returns:
    var (R) = [(1+λ)/(1-λ) *var(R)] > original
  5. Time-Varying Volatility: ARCH models (dependent of last output)