Science of Risk

Question 1

Risk

Answer 1

A situation in which it is possible but not certain that something undesirable will happen

Question 2

! Risk analysis according the the standard picture

Answer 2

The process of identifying and analyzing potential issues that could cause negative impact

(a component of risk management)

Question 3

uncertainty

Answer 3

A risk – something is unknown or has an unknown

outcome

Question 4

scientific vs. moral values

Answer 4

EPISTEMIC VALUES: Predictability, explanatory power, closeness to truth, degree of fit with observations, coherence,…

MORAL/AESTHETIC VALUES: Justice, equality, blameworthiness, beauty, …

Question 5

aesthetic values

Answer 5

elicit pleasure, beauty

Question 6

! Is there “acceptable risk”?

Answer 6

What risk is acceptable is always going to be a value
question. But whose value should decide?

• The expert’s values?
• The politician’s values?
• The layman’s values?

Question 7

risk assessment vs risk management

Answer 7

R. ASSESSMENT: (SCIENCE)

• experiments
• epidemiology
• etc. (standard scientific techniques)

R. MANAGEMENT: (POLICY)

• policy
• regulations
• risk communications

Question 8

precautionary principle

And how can one apply the precautionary principle without becoming paralyzed in one’s research?

Answer 8

If an action of policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking an action.

(Sooo don’t continue on till YOU are reasonably sure it’s safe)

Question 9

scientific consensus

Answer 9

the collective judgment/position/opinion of the community of scientists in a particular field of study

Question 10

How do you manage uncertainty?

Answer 10

• Inherently safe design
• Safety factors
• Safety barriers

Question 11

3 risk roles and their relations to each other

Answer 11

3 parties involved in risk decision:

• risk exposed
• decision maker
• beneficiary

7 questions/relationships:

1) How much do the risk exposed benefit from the risk exposure?
2) Is the distribution of risks and benefits fair?
3) can the distribution be more fair through redistribution/compensation?
4) how much is the risk exposure decided by those who run the risk?
5) Do the risk exposed have all the information about the risk?
6) Are there risk exposed people who cant be informed or included?
7) Does the decision maker benefit from the risk exposure?

Question 12

cost-benefit analysis

Answer 12

• Risks and benefits are assigned monetary values.
• Outcomes are assigned probabilities.
• The alternative that has highest expected monetary value is chosen.

(+)
Takes both the good and the bad into considerations and attempts to form a rational ground for decision.

(-)

• To balance risks and benefits they must be comparable, they must be stated in the same ”currency”.
• Some values are not easily comparable.
• Whose values are counted?

Question 13

! agency

Answer 13

action or intervention producing a particular effect.

Question 14

! intention

Answer 14

(a mental state)

a commitment to carrying out an action or actions in the future

Question 15

consent

Answer 15

permission for something to happen or agreement to do something

Question 16

similarity between utilitarianism and CBA

Answer 16

Both look at the outcomes of actions

Question 17

value vs factual judgements

Answer 17

moral vs fact based