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Tools for Energy & Material Analysis > Scenario & potential analysis > Flashcards

Scenario & potential analysis Flashcards

1
Q

How do we define scenarios? (3)

A
  • view
  • tool
  • method
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2
Q

6 type of scenario studies

A
  • forecasts
  • roadmaps
  • backcasts
  • technical scenarios
  • visions
  • exploratory scenarios
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3
Q

Some scenario’s are … and others are…

A

descriptive

normative

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4
Q

descriptive studies:

A
  • descriptive likely futures based on existing trends or drivers
  • do not aim to present a picture of a desired future
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5
Q

normative studies

A

aim to produce a picture of a desired future, or to elaborate possible routes towards such a future

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6
Q

types of descriptive studies

A
  • forecasts
  • exploratory
  • technical scenarios (potential studies)
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7
Q

forecasts

A

predict likely future from current trend

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8
Q

exploratory scenario

A

explore possible futures

- emphasizes drivers, and have no predetermined end state

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9
Q

Technical scenario

A
  • explore possible futre technological systems

- emphasizes technical feasibility and implications of different options

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10
Q

Types of normative studies

A
  • visions
  • backcasts
  • roadmaps
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11
Q

visions

A
  • elaboration of a desirable future

- emphasizes benefits of future, not pathway

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12
Q

backcasts (pathway)

A
  • start by defining desirable future end point
  • investigate possible paths towards that point

(not an actual look at the past)

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13
Q

roadmaps

A

-describe a sequence of measures designed to bring about a desirable future

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14
Q

What is the purpose of explorative scenarios?

A
  • answer “what would happen if …?” questions

- help policy makers steer and create policies in the right direction

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15
Q

ΔWEM

A

with existing measures

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16
Q

ΔWAM

A

with additional measures

17
Q

ΔBAU

A

business as usual scenario

18
Q

BAU is also know ans

A

WEM, baseline or reference scenario

19
Q

when do we use WAM

A

extra scenario’s are added when uncertainties exist

20
Q

Limitation of exploratory scenario’s

A
  • Your outcome is dependent on your input
  • if you don’t put it in you can’t get it out
  • rubbish in = rubbish out
21
Q

Exploratory scenario’s have difficulties projecting

A
  • structural change
  • technological change

(and can’t project)
-disruptive events like wars, economic crisis, etc.

22
Q

Other name for technical scenario

A

potential study

23
Q

a potential study does not focus on

A

policies needed to realize potentials

24
Q

Different types of potentials

A
  • theoretical
  • technical
  • economic
  • market
  • (maximum) deployment potential
25
Q

Technical potential

A

part of the projected demand that can be met with a technology

(neglecting stock turnover and limitations in market growth)

26
Q

Techno-economic potential

A

part of the potential that can be economically realized

27
Q

(maximum) deployment potential

A

part of the technical potential that can be realized taking into account stock turnover and market growth of new technologies

28
Q

market potential

A

part of the techno-economic potential that is expected to be realized under baseline / BAU conditions

29
Q

policy potential

A

part of the deployment potential that can be realized with additional policies to overcome market failures and barriers. the policy potential add up to the market potential.

30
Q

stock turnover

A

conversion of existing stock into new stock

happends over time

31
Q

the right type of potential analysis to support target setting by policy makers

A

deployment potential

32
Q

deployment potential (key points)

A
  • target period
  • realistic
  • includes stock turnover
  • insight in both cost -effective and -ineffective options
33
Q

How many steps to set up a deployment potential analysis

A

5

34
Q

What is step 1 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

A

1) choose an exiting baseline scenario as starting point

35
Q

What is step 2 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

A

2) identify the energy/CO2 performance in the base year

36
Q

What is step 3 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

A
  1. construct a frozen technology baseline
37
Q

What is step 4 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

A

determine the market share of the technology and the annual supply in the base year

38
Q

What is step 5 of setting up a deployment potential analysis

A

determine the deployment potential by applying maximum annual growth of the technology

  • accounting for stock turnover and immature supply markets
39
Q

Energy / CO2 performance

A

energy or co2 use per unit of activity indicator

Tools for Energy & Material Analysis (8 decks)

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