Scenario & potential analysis Flashcards
How do we define scenarios? (3)
- view
- tool
- method
6 type of scenario studies
- forecasts
- roadmaps
- backcasts
- technical scenarios
- visions
- exploratory scenarios
Some scenario’s are … and others are…
descriptive
normative
descriptive studies:
- descriptive likely futures based on existing trends or drivers
- do not aim to present a picture of a desired future
normative studies
aim to produce a picture of a desired future, or to elaborate possible routes towards such a future
types of descriptive studies
- forecasts
- exploratory
- technical scenarios (potential studies)
forecasts
predict likely future from current trend
exploratory scenario
explore possible futures
- emphasizes drivers, and have no predetermined end state
Technical scenario
- explore possible futre technological systems
- emphasizes technical feasibility and implications of different options
Types of normative studies
- visions
- backcasts
- roadmaps
visions
- elaboration of a desirable future
- emphasizes benefits of future, not pathway
backcasts (pathway)
- start by defining desirable future end point
- investigate possible paths towards that point
(not an actual look at the past)
roadmaps
-describe a sequence of measures designed to bring about a desirable future
What is the purpose of explorative scenarios?
- answer “what would happen if …?” questions
- help policy makers steer and create policies in the right direction
ΔWEM
with existing measures
ΔWAM
with additional measures
ΔBAU
business as usual scenario
BAU is also know ans
WEM, baseline or reference scenario
when do we use WAM
extra scenario’s are added when uncertainties exist
Limitation of exploratory scenario’s
- Your outcome is dependent on your input
- if you don’t put it in you can’t get it out
- rubbish in = rubbish out
Exploratory scenario’s have difficulties projecting
- structural change
- technological change
(and can’t project)
-disruptive events like wars, economic crisis, etc.
Other name for technical scenario
potential study
a potential study does not focus on
policies needed to realize potentials
Different types of potentials
- theoretical
- technical
- economic
- market
- (maximum) deployment potential
Technical potential
part of the projected demand that can be met with a technology
(neglecting stock turnover and limitations in market growth)
Techno-economic potential
part of the potential that can be economically realized
(maximum) deployment potential
part of the technical potential that can be realized taking into account stock turnover and market growth of new technologies
market potential
part of the techno-economic potential that is expected to be realized under baseline / BAU conditions
policy potential
part of the deployment potential that can be realized with additional policies to overcome market failures and barriers. the policy potential add up to the market potential.
stock turnover
conversion of existing stock into new stock
happends over time
the right type of potential analysis to support target setting by policy makers
deployment potential
deployment potential (key points)
- target period
- realistic
- includes stock turnover
- insight in both cost -effective and -ineffective options
How many steps to set up a deployment potential analysis
5
What is step 1 of setting up a deployment potential analysis
1) choose an exiting baseline scenario as starting point
What is step 2 of setting up a deployment potential analysis
2) identify the energy/CO2 performance in the base year
What is step 3 of setting up a deployment potential analysis
- construct a frozen technology baseline
What is step 4 of setting up a deployment potential analysis
determine the market share of the technology and the annual supply in the base year
What is step 5 of setting up a deployment potential analysis
determine the deployment potential by applying maximum annual growth of the technology
- accounting for stock turnover and immature supply markets
Energy / CO2 performance
energy or co2 use per unit of activity indicator
