S2 W2 Counterfactual reasoning Flashcards
What is Counterfactual reasoning
is the ability to reason about situations and events removed from, or contrary to, current reality. This includes the ability to think about the past and the future, and situations with multiple possible outcomes. (if only or what if)
What is required to think about what might have been?
We separate ourselves from current reality
Mentally construct an alternative version of the world in which one thing has changed and then
Track how this single change would have affected the rest of the world.
The mouse game
Slide with two outlets: their job was to place cotton wool to ensure that the mouse landed safely. After the mouse slid down, “What if next he goes the other way?” “Can you put out cotton wool”. Children can think about a signle possibility in the future, they find it harder to think of multiple possibilities.
Counterfactual reasoning Regret
If you buy a scratch card and win £10, you would probably be quite happy. But if the person next in line won £500,000, you’d probably feel something negative, even though you’d made a profit. This reaction arises from comparing one particular outcome in relation to an alternative outcome.
Counterfactual reasoning Relief
If a storm blows a branch off a tree so that it scratches your car, you’d probably be annoyed But if the two cars on either side of your car had both been crushed by fallen trees, you’d probably experience something positive. This feeling requires that you compare a particular outcome in relation to an alternative.
Imagined counterfactual world
appreciate that a specific point in the past two possible world diverged because of a single causal event, “I took the bus instead of the car”. Causal relation between a specific past event and its subsequent outcome.
Two possible world
challenging for children ‘actual’ ‘possible’ consequences of a single causal event difficult. (mouse 2 paths)
World almost
what almost happened. Two possible world. 5Y interpret reliably this counterfactual use of almost.
Counterfactual reasoning adn Exectuvie processes
Inhibition: ability to ignore interfering cognitions that are irrelevant to a task goal. To reason with false beliefs, you need to inhibt the true beliefs.
Working Memory: ability to hold information in mind that is relevant to a goal. Required to relate to counterfactual and real world.
Attentional flexibility: ability to switch between mental set. To be able to compare and switch between them.
Counterfactual reasoning Language
receptive vocabulary was related to conditional reasoning with information know to be false (Beck, 2009). Necessary for counterfactual thought/thinking (maybe uniquely human ability) Children may need to understand specific grammatical constructions to think counterfactually. Studies rely heavily on langue.
Adults counterfactual thinking susceptible to what ?
Biases, more engaged in counterfactual thinking when people act rather than fail to act when counterfactual world seem close rather than distant
Factors affecting counterfactual thinking
Language: receptive vocabulary related to conditional reasoning with information know to be false.
Domain specific knowledge: ability to think about possibilities and counterfactuals may differ depending on their causal knowledge in the domain.
Imagined counterfactual world
Appriciate that a specific point in the past two possible world diverged because of a single casual event.
World almost
What almost happened two possible worlds. 5Y interpret reliably this counterfactual use of almost
Self and other judgements
7Y felt regret when doing a gambling task, felt worse when they found out a better price was available but when watching other people in same situation.
