S13: Peace Process, Withdrawal and Military collapse

Question 1

Drawdown and transition timeline:

Answer 1

2009: COIN and surge
2011: 140,000 NATO soldiers in afghanistan
2011-2014: transition towards handover to Afghanistan forces
2014: end of ISAF, end of NATO combat operations.
2015: State of Resolute supports missions (RSM) (training Afghan army)

Question 2

Doha Deal/agreement: What were the main four points of the peace agreement between the USA and (not recognized) Taliban government

Answer 2

1. Guarantee that Afghanistan land will not be used for terrorism
2. Timeline and guarantee for withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan.
3. After the ‘announcement of guarantees’ Taliban will start talks with Afghan sides (problematic!)
4. Ceasefire between Taliban and Afghan/USA forces

Question 3

USA withdrawal from Afghanistan timeline:

Answer 3

April 14: US President Joe Biden announces full withdrawal
May 1: Taliban start military campaign
August 6: Taliban take first provincial capital
August 12: Taliban take two of Afghanistan’s main cities
August 15: Taliban enter Kabul

Question 4

According to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) there were 6 factors leading to the collapse of August 2021 name them:

Answer 4

1. US withdrawal: loss of morale for Afghans
2. Reduction of US air support
3. Afghan armed forces not self sustaining
4. Rotation and marginalization of US-trained security forces
5. Failure to develop national security plan
6. Effectiveness of Taliban military campaign

“Perfect storm”

Question 5

What two challenges did the Taliban face in their transition from rebel to state?

Answer 5

1. State capacity
   -Economic/financial/humanitarian challenge(Excluding women from workforce, banning certain jobs, making people unemployed)

2.Organizational and political challenge
-Violent resistance (other groups such as A-Q
-Non-violent resistance (international pressure)

Question 6

How did the USA withdrawal/plans for withdrawal help the Taliban?

Answer 6

1. USA deal (doha agreement )gave Taliban international legitimacy
2. USA removed themself from battlefield, sparing the Taliban and denying the ANSF support.
3. USA forced ANSF in active defense, this gave Taliban time to consolidate forces and regions
4. USA never trained ANSF to be self-sufficient