S10: External Intervention & War on Drugs

Question 1

Evolution of drug economy in Afghanistan

Answer 1

-1930s 1940s: Poppy was produced under government license
-1940s: USA raised concerns about poppy production
-1945: USA led opium ban
-1958: government tried to prevent opium production in Badakhshan
However!:
-1970s: Opium bans in Turkey, Iran and Pakistan displaced production to Afghanistan
-Early 1970s: Government confirmed the rise in drugs trafficking in Afghanistan & the lack of capacity to control it.
Late 1970s: opium was cultivated in half of country
1980s: War against Mujahideen devastated rural substinence economy
1990s: Rural economy was further devastated and fragmented

Question 2

What triple advantage does Afghanistan have on poppy growth?

Answer 2

1. Physical conditions: High yield of crops, good climate; warm and temperate less humid
2. Political condition: Afghanistan lacked security and lacked institutional strength, absence of rules and regulations
3. Economic condition: Rural poverty prevented the development of alternative ways of living

Question 3

When did the Taliban ban opium? And what were the factors behind the ban?

Answer 3

-July 2000 ordered a ban on opium production
Factors:
1. To gain international reputation
2. To attract development aid
3. To raise the prices & increase value of stockpiles
4. Taliban could/already claimed they didn’t depend on opium as a source of funding

Question 4

What were the ramifications of the ban?

Answer 4

-Poverty rise: more poverty for farmers
-Prices rise: stonks
-Unemployment rise: young men lost their farming jobs
-Migration rise: many Afghans migrated away
-Opium bride (farmers in debt to Taliban traded their daughters for the debt, but also livestock and land)

Question 5

External intervention and war on drugs timeline

Answer 5

1. Hands-off approach (2001-2002)
   -USA lacked engagement in counter narcotics, or drug trafficking by warlords
2. Hands-on approach (2003-2009)
   -USA zero tolerance policy and active eradication. this policy failed and never lead to decrease in production.
3. Alternative-livelihood approach (2009-2016)
   -Policy shift to provide famers with alternative livelihood, aimed to strengthen ties between citizens and government. Still poppy production continued to rise, (opium prices rose which lead to more production)
4. Shift to aerial raids (2017-2018)
   -Trump intensified counternarcotic operations, USA began bombing drug labs, depots, smugglers. Again the policy failed
5. End of Airstrikes or war on drugs (2019-2021)
   -early 2019s: USA announced end of its operations.
   -early 2020s: US signed the Doha agreement and refrained from bombing

Question 6

Why did all the policies and interventions fail?

Answer 6

-They did not address the structural drivers for poppy cultivation such as: poverty, lack of other economic opportunities, political influence.

Question 7

Ramifications of War on Drugs in Afghanistan

Answer 7

1. Regime uncertainty and contradictory policies
2. Criminalising ordinary citizens (taliban offered protection for taxation)
3. Accumulating power/ cartelisation (USA policy strengthened position of local power brokers)
4. Fueling corruption (people engaged in narcotics bribed officials)
5. Other costs/factors of failure (unprotected bureaucrats, nepotism, illegal taxation)