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DRMCCA > Risk Management Concepts > Flashcards

Risk Management Concepts Flashcards

1
Q

What is stochastic uncertainty?

A
  • caused by natural variation/randomness

- also known as natural/stochastic/aleatory

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2
Q

Tehler Framework Steps

A
  1. Values/Objectives
  2. Context & System description
  3. Risk Scenarios
  4. Likelihoods and Consequences
  5. Risk Presentation
  6. Risk Evaluation
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3
Q

What are the 3 questions risk is the answer to?

A
  • What can happen?
  • How likely is it?
  • What will the consequences be?
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4
Q

4 ways/scale types for describing Likelihood

A

Verbal descriptions
Qualitative ranking scale
Semi-quantitative ranking scale
Quantitative Scale (Frequencies or Probabilities)

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5
Q

What is Individual Risk?

A

risk a theoretical person is exposed to if they stand in the same geographical location for a year

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6
Q

What are other names for So?

A
  • Zero Scenario
  • As planned-scenario
  • Normal scenario
  • Success-scenario
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7
Q

What is parameter uncertainty? (include what type(s) of uncertainty it is)

A

-Uncertainty in an input variable
-types: variability or knowledge uncertainty
-related to:
~quality of data & data collection methods
~amount of data
~estimation procedures
use of expert judgement

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8
Q

What is ALARP stand for?

what are the 3 regions in the ALARP triangle?

A
  • As Low As Reasonable Practicable
  • Acceptable/negligible risk (can accept w/out measures)
  • ALARP region (tolerable) (Measures must be taken unless the costs are grossly disproportional to the benefits)
  • Unacceptable region (risk must be avoided or reduced irrespective of its costs)
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9
Q

What does SMAUG stand for?

A 
Seriousness
Manageability
Acceptability
Urgency
Growth
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10
Q

What are 3 strategies to manage risk

A

Risk-based
Precaution based
Discourse based

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11
Q

What does STAPLEE stand for?

A 
Social
Technical
Administrative
Political
Legal
Economic
Environmental
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12
Q

What is knowledge uncertainty?

A

Uncertainty related to lack of information, knowledge or ignorance of a phenomena
also known as epistemic

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13
Q

How can knowledge uncertainty be reduced?

A

by gaining more knowledge, such as through additional research or better measurements

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14
Q

What are 2 basic types of uncertainty?

A
  • Knowledge (epistemic) uncertainty

- Variability (natural/stochastic/aleatory) uncertainty

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15
Q

What is Model Uncertainty (include what type(s) of uncertainty it is and the sources)?

A
  • Knowledge uncertainty in a model

- Sources: choice of model & understanding of the model

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16
Q

What is Completeness Uncertainty?

A

associated with whether we have captured all risk scenarios

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17
Q

6 levels in the treatment of uncertainty

A
  1. Identification of hazard
  2. Worst-case
  3. Quasi-worst case (Plausible upper bound)
  4. Best estimate (central value)
  5. Probability and risk analysis (probabilistic risk assessment, single risk curve)
  6. Display of risk uncertainties (probabilistic risk assessment, multiple risk curves)
    (Pate-Cornell p99)
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18
Q

What is a risk scenario?

A

Hypothetical sequence of events leading to a possible future involving some sort of negative consequences

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19
Q

What is a Scenario Tree?

A

set of risk scenarios starting with the initiating event

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20
Q

What is a Fault Tree

A

set of risk scenarios starting with the END STATE

21
Q

What is the bow-tie method?

A
  • Start with the event in the middle
  • add in Causes on the left side (fire, storm, terrorist attack)
  • add in Consequences on the right side (Major damage, Minor damage, no damage)
22
Q

What is a Scenario Table?

A
  • Table containing all risk scenarios, probabilities, and consequences
  • generally created from the information found on an event tree
23
Q

What are 3 scales for describing likelihood

A

Nominal
Ordinal
Cardinal

24
Q

Describe a Nominal Scale

A
  • Events are associated w/ different categories

- Different categories cannot be used to tell which event is most likely, only that events differ in term of likelihood

25
Q

Describe an Ordinal Scale

A
  • scale can be used to express which event that is more likely than another
  • CanNOT be used to determine how much more likely
26
Q

Describe a Cardinal Scale

A

can be used to express the order events based on their likelihood
express how much more likely one event is compared to another

27
Q

Give an example of qualitative ranking scale

A 
Extremely unlikely
Very unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very Likely
28
Q

Give an example of a semi-quantitative scale

A 
extremely unlikely = once every 1000 years
Very unlikely = once every 100 years
Unlikely = once every 10 years
Likely = once every year
Very Likely = more than once a year
29
Q

What is a main drawback of using expected consequences?

A

cannot see a difference between a situation of few but serious events and one in which there are many events but less serious ones

30
Q

What are rights-based criteria for risk evaluation?

A

Absolute limits on the maximally accepted risk

means investments in risk reducing measures are required if the risk is greater than what is considered acceptable

31
Q

What are two approaches to risk evaluation?

A

rights-based criteria & utility-based criteria

32
Q

What is utility-based criteria for risk evaluation?

A
  • invest in risk reducing measures only if the benefits outweigh the costs
  • Requires a cost-benefit analysis
33
Q

What are the 2 types of rights-based criteria?

A
  • Zero-Risk Approach

- Risk Acceptable Limit (limit risk to a certain level)

34
Q

What are the objectives of a sensitivity analysis?

A

-Which input parameter affects the result most?
-How will different alternative assumptions/models affect the output result?
-What should one be focusing on to reduce the uncertainty in the output?
– Which parameters should be described by distributions in an uncertainty analysis?

35
Q

What is Normative vs. Interpretive ambiguity?

A

-Interpretative: Disagreement on Tolerability of risk (different tourists)
disagreement about the evidence
-Normative: Disagreement on what’s worth protecting (farmer vs. tourist)
disagreement on what what to protect

36
Q

What steps of the Tehler risk assessment make up a risk analysis?

A
  • Values/Objectives
  • Context and System Description
  • Risk Scenarios
  • Likelihoods and Consequences
37
Q

What are the 2 models used for system descriptions?

A
  • Structural model (static snapshot of system)

- Functional model (depicts flow within a system, generally used in supply chain management)

38
Q

What are the requirements for subdividing scenarios?

A
  • suitable level of detail
  • complete
  • non-overlapping
39
Q

What are the 3 methods for identifying risk scenarios?

A

-Identify initiating events (IE) & find possible consequences (Event Trees)
-Identify End States (ES) & find possible causes (Fault Trees)
Identify critical events (mid states) & find consequences & causes (What-if, hazop, etc.)

40
Q

What are the ways to treat uncertainty in risk scenarios (risk is described as/by)?

A
  • Worst case or worst credible case
  • Best estimate (one scenario w/ input parameters at average values)
  • Distributions (1 scenario w/ uncertain input parameters)
  • Best estimates (several scenarios w/ input parameters at average values)
  • Distributions (several scenarios with uncertain input parameters)
41
Q

Describe what a sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis are

A

-Sensitivity: How sensitive are the results to the change in input parameters (One-way-sensitivity analysis)
-Uncertainty: How uncertain are the results due to uncertainties in parameters & models (Interval analysis)
Difference: Sensitivity analysis, change results based on changes in 1 parameter at a time. Uncertainty analysis, changes results based on multiple parameters at once

42
Q

What are the Pros/Cons of using a Risk Matrix?

A 
□ Pros
	-easy to understand
	-Visualizes risk
□ Cons:
	-Easy to manipulate
	-Subjective
	-Can't be compared between other hazards
	-Risk can't be aggregated
43
Q

What are the pros/cons of Individual Risk?

A

□ Pros
-Aggregates all the risk
-One easy to understand number
-Independent of if people currently living there
□ Cons
- Does not show the difference between risks
-Unclear if low probability & high consequences or vice versa
-Doesn’t account for population of area, and therefore actual consequences

44
Q

What are the pros/cons of using an FN curve?

A 
□ Pros
	-Harder to manipulate
	- Would generally have to go back to the system description
	-Can aggregate risk
□ Cons
	- Hard to understand/read
45
Q

What are the pros/cons of expected consequences?

A

□ Pros
-Easy to communicate & compare
□ Cons
-Does not show the difference between risks
Unclear if low probability & high consequences or vice versa

46
Q

What are Hanna’s Pate-Cornell’s way of handling risk?

A
  1. Worst case or worst credible case
  2. Best estimate
    -one scenario w/ input parameters at average values
  3. Distributions
    -1 scenario w/ uncertain input parameters
  4. Best estimates
    -several scenarios w/ input parameters at average values
    Distributions
    several scenarios with uncertain input parameters
47
Q

What are the 9 examples of Risk Perception Criteria?

A
  • Extent of damage
  • Probability of occurrence
  • Uncertainty
  • Ubiquity
  • Persistence
  • Reversibility
  • Delay effect
  • violation of equity
  • potential of mobilization
48
Q

What is the frequentest view of probability?

A

Relative frequency where an event occurs over a long sequence of trials:
-the number of times a particular event occurs divided by the number of times it could have occurred
E.g. Throwing a dice.

49
Q

What is the subjectivist (Bayesian) view of probability?

A

Probabilities are subjective estimations

  • estimation is based on all the knowledge of the person.
  • may vary between people.

DRMCCA (3 decks)

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