Responses to high and low fertility

Question 1

Define: dependency ration

Answer 1

The ratio of the number of people under 15 and over 64 years to those 15-64 years of age.

Question 2

Define: youth dependency ratio

Answer 2

The ratio of the number of people 0-14 to those 15-64 years of age.

Question 3

Define: elderly dependency ratio

Answer 3

The ratio of the number of people aged 65 years old and over to those aged 15-64 years.

Question 4

Define: ageing ratio

Answer 4

The proportion of people 65 years old and over to the total population.

Question 5

Define: median age

Answer 5

The age at which half the population is younger and half is older.

Question 6

Define: ageing population

Answer 6

A rise in the median age of a population, which occurs when fertility declines while life expectancy remains constant or increases.

Question 7

Define: population policy

Answer 7

A rise in the median age of a population, which occurs when fertility declines while life expectancy

Question 8

Define: pro-natalist policy

Answer 8

A population policy that aims to encourage more births through the use of incentives

Question 9

Define: anti-natalist policy

Answer 9

A population policy designed to limit fertility through the use both of incentives and deterrents.

Question 10

How can the dependency ratio be calculated?

Answer 10

= (%population aged 0-14 + %population aged 65 and over) / (%population 15-64) x 100

Question 11

How can the youth dependency ratio be calculated?

Answer 11

= (%population aged 0-14) / (%population 15-64) x 100

Question 12

How can the elderly dependency ratio be calculated?

Answer 12

= (%population aged 65 and over) / (%population 15-64) x 100

Question 13

Why can an increase in the dependency ratio cause financial problems for the government?

Answer 13

If a government does not have the financial reserves to cope with such a change, the new demand for education, health care and public pensions will be a strain on the economy.

Question 14

Why is the dependency ratio a crude indicator?

Answer 14

1. In developed countries, few people leave education before the age of 18 and a significant number go on to university and do not get a job before the age of 21. In addition, while some people will retire before the age of 65, others will go on working beyond this age
2. A significant number of people in the economically active group, such as parents staying at home to look after children, do not work for various reasons. The number of people in this situation can vary considerably from one country to another
3. In developing countries, a significant proportion of children are working full time or part time before the age of 15. In some developing countries there is very high unemployment and underemployment within the economically active age group

Question 15

What are the impacts of a youthful population?

Answer 15

1. Countries with large youthful populations have to allocate a substantial proportion of their natural resources to look after them (young people require resources for health, education, food, water and housing)
2. The money used to cover such needs may mean that there is little left to invest in agriculture, industry and other aspects of the economy
3. A large young population will move up the age ladder and provide a substantial working population when it enters the economically active age group (will contribute largely to taxes)
4. However, if there are few employment opportunities for a large working population, the unemployment rate will be high
5. These people will eventually move into the elderly section and prove to be a larger strain on government resources

Question 16

What are the impacts of an ageing population?

Answer 16

1. Will put health care systems, public pensions and government budgets in general under pressure
2. Resources will have to be reallocated
3. There will be technological advances, which may improve living standards for everyone
4. Many older people make a big contribution to childcare
5. Large numbers of old people work as volunteers

Question 17

Case study: YOUTHFUL POPULATION

Answer 17

THE GAMBIA

WHY?

1. Muslims make up 95% of the population and until recently, religious leaders were against the use of contraception
2. Cultural tradition meant that women had little influence on family size
3. Children were viewed as an economic asset to help with crop production and tending animals
4. One in three children aged 10-14 are working, there is high infant and maternal mortality, 45% of the population are classed as young dependants, 3% are elderly dependants, dependency ratio is 92.3%

PROBLEMS

1. Many parents in The Gambia struggle to provide basic housing for their families
2. There is huge overcrowding and lack of sanitation
3. Unemployment and underemployment is high, wages are low and parents struggle to provide even the basics for large families
4. The government has insufficient financial resources for education and health
5. There aren’t enough schools or teachers
6. A large number of trees are being burnt for firewood and so desertification is occurring at a rapid rate

IMPROVEMENTS

1. ‘Forest educators’ are working in rural areas to improve the problem of desertification
2. The government has introduced a family planning campaign, which has been accepted by religious leaders
3. It has worked with an NGO called Futures to deliver contraception and family planning to rural areas
4. Scheme is subsidised by WHO
5. There has been a change in male attitudes to family size and contraception usage

Question 18

Case study: AGEING POPULATION

Answer 18

JAPAN

STATISTICS

1. 1 in 5 Japanese are over the age of 60
2. Nearly 2 million are over 80
3. The country’s population peaked in 2005 at 128 million
4. Fertility as declined substantially and the total fertility rate is 1.3

FUN FACT
Has a tradition of positive attitudes towards the elderly - National Respect of the Aged Day is a public holiday

PROBLEMS
1. Japan’s workforce peaked at 67.9 million in 1998 and has been in decline since then, presenting an increasing burden on the existing workforce (however, there is a high labour force participation amongst the elderly - Japanese men work an average of five years after mandatory retirement)
2. The number of old people living in care homes or other welfare facilities is rising and so more pressure is
being put on the economy

IMPROVEMENTS

1. Younger workers are at a premium and there is considerable competition to hire them
2. Possibility of expanding immigration (although it is very difficult for legal immigration and illegal immigration is strictly suppressed - only 1% of the labour force is foreign)
3. Pension reforms have been implemented with later retirement and contributions from employers

Question 19

Case study: PRO-NATALIST POLICY

Answer 19

FRANCE

1. Pro-natalist policies have been adapted since 1939
2. This has lead to a relatively high fertility rate in comparison to the rest of Europe

1939 - CODE DE LA FAMILLE

1. Offered financial incentives to mothers who stayed at home to look after children (relieved the burden of children as an economic strain)
2. Subsidised holidays
3. Banned the sale of contraceptives

RECENT MEASURES

1. Longer maternity and paternity leave - maternity leave on almost full pay range from 20 weeks for the first child to 40 or more for the third child
2. Higher child benefits
3. Improved tax allowances for larger families until the youngest child reaches 18
4. Pension scheme for mothers/housewives
5. 30% reduction on all public transport for three-child families
6. Child-orientated policies - provision of crèches and day nurseries
7. Preferential treatment in the allocation of government housing

EFFECT

1. France is trying to reduce the economic cost to parents of having children
2. In 2006, France overtook Ireland to become the highest-fertility nation in the EU, with an average of two babies per woman (France is close to the replacement level of 2.1)
3. A moderate positive net migration adds to fertility (highest level of fertility is among the immigrant population)
4. Economists argue that although this means more expenditure on childcare facilities and education, in the longer term it gives the country a more sustainable age structure

Question 20

What are the concerns regarding a low fertility?

Answer 20

1. The socio-economic implications of population ageing
2. The decrease in the supply of labour
3. The long-term prospect of population decline

Question 21

Case study: ANTI-NATALIST POLICY

Answer 21

WHY?

1. The balance between population and resources has been a major cause of concern
2. In the aftermath of the communist revolution in 1949, population growth was encouraged for economic, military and strategic reasons - sterilisation and contraception were banned and families received a benefit payment for each child
3. By 1954, China’s population had reached 600 million and the government became worried about the pressure on food supplies and other resources - first birth control programme was introduced in 1956
4. Proved short-lived as the Great Leap Forward began in 1958 - rapid industrialisation and modernisation: births were again encouraged to prevent a hindrance caused by labour shortages
5. By 1962, the government had changed their minds again, heavily influenced by a famine due to the relative neglect of agriculture during the pursuit of industrialisation
6. A new phase of birth control began in 1964, which was soon dropped with the introduction of the Cultural Revolution from 1966-1971. During this time, the crude birth rate peaked at 45

ONE-CHILD POLICY

1. Family planning campaign began in the early 1970s with the slogan “Late, Sparse, Few”
2. Towards the end of the decade, there was concern that this policy might falter and so in 1979, the One-Child Policy was introduced
3. Based on a reward-and-penalty approach - rural households that obey family planning rules get priority for loans, materials, technical and social welfare
4. Erosion of traditional bias for sons in the cities (although this is still rife in rural areas)

IMPACT

1. The sex ratio - 2009 was 119 - causes social problems (because of selective abortion after prenatal screening)
2. 300-400 million fewer births