Resource futures - Energy Flashcards
Energy futures
The ability for a nation to secure sufficient, affordable and consistent energy supplies for its industrial, transport and domestic needs is regarded as energy security. The failure to do so in the future can result in energy shortages.
Although Political, environmental and economic developments, combined with technological improvements will make it possible in the future to decrease consumption and demand for these resources, establish new reserves through exploration and switch to everlasting/renewable resources.
Tech developments will Increase energy security
- Carbon free sources (renewables, hydro and nuclear) will increase their combined share of electric power generation to 37% by 2035. Therefore, reducing the demand for non-renewable stock energy resources. Nuclear energy technology is becoming ever more prominent, for example 21 Nuclear reactors provide 31 percent of South Koreas electricity.
- The global weighted average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of new onshore wind projects added in 2021 fell by 15%
- The US has become the number 1 producer of natural gas in the world, this is due to combining horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies. Gas production using these methods has risen from 1% to 30% of North American gas production since 2001. Shale gas production has meant that the supply of energy has continued to grow. These technological improvements have introduced the idea the USA could achieve energy independence.
- Domestic energy consumption has been falling and energy consumption in buildings. Energy efficient light bulbs, lighting accounts for 15% of the domestic energy bill and replacing traditional bulbs to LEDs can save £35 of energy for UK households.
Tech developments wont improve energy security
Energy resources such as Oil remain non-renewable stock resources that cannot be replenished. Despite new technologies that increase the supply of these resources. It will only last 89 years at the current rate of production, as technology increases this rate of production will increase even further.
Domestic improvements to reduce energy consumption largely take place on a small and local scale, therefore are not overly significant. Failure of government legislation and regulation to enforce such improvements, meaning in many areas’ energy consumption will fail to increase.
Efficiency for renewables is low despite technological improvements, therefore this will mean that non renewables will continue to be preferred. Solar panel efficiency is between 15% and 22% whereas coal reaches levels of up to 60%.
Economic developments will improve energy security
Between 1950 and 1997, Asia grew almost twice as quickly as the rest of the world. Due to this, Asian economies now are able to invest into renewable energies, instead of relying on stock resources such as coal and oil, that will eventually diminish. This can be seen by the Philippines and Vietnam, who have been reliant on coal for over 50% of their energy security. Through FDI, Vietnam has announced offshore wind projects that will create up to 12,920 MW of energy, which is the most in the world. This will create energy security on a supply that cannot be diminished.
- Energy costs may rise as unconventional fossil fuel sources such as fracking make up more supply.
- Carbon markets, countires hgave to pay for their carbon emissions, prices may increase to make the use of renewables more attractive.
Economic developments wont improve energy
Unless nations are able to be fully energy independent through large amounts of investment into green energy, there will always be a reliance on the supply extended by energy rich nations. Due to the large energy interdependency on states such as Russia, fuel poverty is always a risk. This can occur when prices of fuels increase due to international events such as the Ukraine War. As countries take time to transition towards green energy, they have an inelastic demand for the importing of fuel, which mostly comes from Russia. These increased prices have pushed over 2 million households in the UK into fuel poverty this year.
Takes up to 15 years to build a nuclear power plant. Offshore wind farms take from 7-11 years to construct.
Enviromental developments will improve energy security
New technologies are creating ways of generating energy in more environmentally friendly ways e.g. the push for renewables in Costa Rica and Norway (Costa Rica have pledged to reach 100% and maintain this by 2030) and Iceland uses 100% renewables in all transport.
Increase in technologies and discoveries to produce home exploited energy, which is more environmentally friendly and reduces emissions from transport. Examples – France energy mix is 80% nuclear – which is less damaging for environment, Mali is 80% biofuels and Iceland is 70% geothermal due to volcanic activity. These environmental and political (less dependant on overseas production) developments of energy production will ensure high demand in a world where finite resources will slowly start to run out.
Carbon Capture and sequestration developments stores harmful carbon form the atmosphere underground and so carbon emissions can be eliminated and used with less environmental impact meaning energy can still be produced in ways using like we do today.
Enviromental developments wont imrpove energy security
Although, Carbon capture does not completely solve the problems that stock resources cause and whilst these energy production practises continue, climate change will continue to have a significant impact.
Targets for carbon emissions will become more stringent as global climate change presents more problems around the world – therefore federal legislation will make it harder for energy production in sources that are environmentally damaging. - plus increase in countries undertaking EIAs.
Political developments will improve energy access
Increase in geopolitics concerning energy in the future. Globalisation is reducing the distance between countries and reducing development gaps – meaning energy can be easily transported from all over the world.
Influence of TNCs e.g. BP in resource development will continue to grow (govn. and geopolitics are the ‘gatekeepers of TNCs’) – exploration and investment for resource frontiers in developing world, leading to less shortages.
Rise in conflicts due to depletion of fossil fuels will cause a scramble to claim previously protected areas and will make the remaining reserves more valuable.
Example – Arctic is less protected than Antarctica seen by a number of territorial claims by USA, Russia, Canada and Denmark in the race for fossil fuels in the Arctic Ocean. - although this is environmentally damaging, these resources will eventually be extracted therefore there will be less energy shortages for a short period of time following extraction.
Political developments wont improve energy security
But globalisation also causing countries to become interdependent on one another – their energy mixes rely of exports e.g. W. Europe relying on Russian Gas from Nordic stream pipes. Arising conflicts and Russia - Ukraine war highlights how political developments may cause an increase potential for energy shortages.
