Reasoning / Decision Making Flashcards
What are the four broad categories of thinking and reasoning research?
Judgement, Decision Making, Problem Solving, and Reasoning.
What is judgement in the context of thinking and reasoning?
Judgement involves calculating the likelihood of certain events.
What is decision making in the context of thinking and reasoning?
Decision making involves selecting one option out of several potential choices.
What is problem solving?
Problem solving involves cognitive processes that take us from recognizing a problem to developing a solution.
What is reasoning?
Reasoning is determining what conclusions can be drawn from various premises assumed to be true.
What is the key question regarding our thinking and reasoning abilities?
“Are we any good at it?” (Are we rational?)
Why are we bad at estimating likelihoods?
Humans are not “wired” to understand percentages, fractions, or probabilities.
How does rephrasing problems help with judgement?
Reframing problems in terms of frequencies rather than probabilities makes the structure easier to understand.
What heuristics do we use in judgement according to Kahneman & Tversky?
Availability heuristic, Representativeness heuristic, and Anchoring and Adjustment.
What is the availability heuristic?
Judging frequency or probability based on how easily examples come to mind.
What is the representativeness heuristic?
Assigning a high probability to events typical of a class, often ignoring base rates.
What is anchoring and adjustment?
Starting with an initial estimate and adjusting it, even if the anchor is arbitrary.
What does utility theory suggest about decision making?
We should choose the option with the greatest utility (value) to us.
What is prospect theory?
A theory that explains decision making, highlighting our tendency to be loss averse—giving more weight to potential losses than gains.
What is the framing effect in decision making?
The way a problem is presented (emphasizing gains or losses) can influence choices, even if the options are equivalent.
What is the somatic marker hypothesis?
Decision making is supplemented by unconscious “gut feelings” based on past emotional experiences.
What are the three aspects of problem solving?
It is goal-directed, an immediate solution is unavailable, and it involves conscious cognitive processes.
What are the three parts of a problem?
The start state (the problem), the operators (possible actions), and the goal state (the solution).
What is functional fixedness?
A cognitive bias that limits a person’s ability to use objects in novel ways during problem solving.
What is the Tower of Hanoi problem?
A puzzle requiring the transfer of discs to a third peg following specific rules, demonstrating problem-solving strategies.
What is deductive reasoning?
Reasoning where the conclusion is certain if the premises are true.
What is inductive reasoning?
Reasoning where conclusions are likely valid but require further evidence and can be regarded as hypotheses.
What are two valid inferences in deductive reasoning?
Modus ponens (If p then q; p; therefore q) and modus tollens (If p then q; not q; therefore not p).
What are two invalid inferences in deductive reasoning?
Affirming the consequent (If p then q; q; therefore p) and denying the antecedent (If p then q; not p; therefore not q).
What is confirmation bias?
The tendency to seek information that confirms a theory rather than information that might falsify it.
What is the Wason selection task?
A reasoning task that demonstrates the importance of seeking falsification rather than confirmation to test rules.
What constraints affect our thinking and reasoning?
Cognitive limitations, time constraints, and lack of information.
What do systematic biases in thinking reveal?
They provide clues about the cognitive mechanisms underlying our thought processes.
Can education and training improve our thinking and reasoning?
Yes, but only to a limited extent. Systems should be designed to account for human weaknesses.
