Reasoning & Decision Making Flashcards
Reasoning vs Decision making
Reasoning: Coming to a conclusion based on given premises we assume to be true
Decision making: Making a judgment among a set of options
Rationalism vs Empiricism
A priori truths vs Posteriori truths
Deduction vs Induction
Rationalism:
- A priori truths (Born knowing truths of world but soul forgets it when entering baby)
- Gain knowledge through deduction (Take truths and apply to specific situations)
Empiricism:
- A posteriori truths (Born not knowing anything, learn through experience)
- Gain knowledge through induction (Generalize a certain set of info and extending it to make an informed guess)
Categorical syllogism
Kind of syllogism consisting of 2 premises and 1 conclusion
- Syllogism: Reasoning involving drawing a conclusion from 2+ propositional statements
Definite quantifiers vs Negations
Indeterminate
Mental models
(Categorical syllogism)
Definite quantifiers (all/none) easier to solve; negations harder
- Indeterminate: When we can’t draw a logical conclusion from a syllogism
- Mental models used to solve
What 3 things limit mental models for solving categorical syllogisms?
1) Working memory
- Ppl w/ higher WM can make more models and remember them
2) Prior knowledge
3) Visual imagery
- Ppl who are getter at creating visual imagery are better at reasoning
Conditional reasoning
Antecedent
Consequent
Kind of syllogism that states a rule that relates 2 propositions
“If p, then q. p. Therefore, ?”
Antecedent: Statement that comes first (“if…”)
Consequent: Statement that follows (“then…”
- Usually must:
1) Affirm antecedent (modus ponens)
2) Deny consequent (modus tollens)
Watson Selection Task
“If a card has a vowel on one side, then it had an even number on the other side.”
E J 6 7
(Conditional reasoning)
Most people flip “E” to affirm antecedent (valid)
Many ppl also flip “6” to affirm consequent (invalid)
- Confirmation bias: Ppl have tendency to look for info that supports a claim but not info that refutes it
Belief bias effect
Past knowledge interferes w/ ability to form logical conclusion
- Usually caused wrong conclusion
Inductive reasoning
Going beyond available data to make inferences
- Based on observations of the world
- Usually try to falsify hypothesis
Expected Utility Theory
Subjective utility
Subjective probability
Ppl want to make the most optimal choice (the outcome that produces most yield)
Decisions based on:
- Subjective utility: How much you value this outcome
- Subjective probability: Estimate of the probability of this outcome
Problem: Assumes all decisions should be made methodically and rationally but this isn’t always what happens
Heuristics
Availability heuristic
Affect heuristic
Anchoring heuristic
Representativeness heuristic
Simulation heuristic
Heuristics: Mental shortcuts for drawing inferences based on limited info
Availability heuristic: Tendency to rely on info that quickly comes to mind when trying to make decision
Affect heuristic: Tendency to overestimate the risk of events that generate a strong emotional reaction
Anchoring heuristic: Tendency to focus and rely on initial pieces of info
Representativeness heuristic: Rely on person/object conforming to a specific category while neglecting other types of info or reasoning
- Judge likelihood based on how similar it is to the population its from
Simulation heuristic: How easily we can bring alternate outcomes to mind
Conjunction fallacy
Base-rate fallacy
Cultural cognition
Conjunction fallacy: Error in logic that assumes two specific conditions are more probably than a single, encompassing condition
Base-rate fallacy: Error in reasoning in which ppl ignore underlying probability of event in favour of some present evidence
Cultural cognition: Tendency for ppl to hold beliefs about rusks that are consistent w/ their broader social and moral values
Forms of irrational decision making:
Loss aversion
Endowment effect
Ikea effect
Status quo bias
Loss aversion: Tendency to prefer avoiding losing something compared with not gaining something of equal value
Endowment effect: Tendency to place higher value on objects they already own over those they don’t yet own
Ikea effect: Tendency for ppl to place higher value in objects they built themselves vs those that others built
Status quo bias: Tendency for ppl to leave things as they are rather than making a change
Framing effect
Framing effect: Tendency to favour options that are presented in a positive fashion
Integral emotions
Incidental emotions
Integral: Emotions directly related to a decision
- Feeling nervous about asking someone out
Incidental: Emotions not directly related to the decision under consideration
- Tendency to go shopping when in a bad mood
