reading 3 - review of core ideas Flashcards
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
Jack S. Levy
typology of case studies based on their purposes:
- idiographic (inductive and theory-guided)
- hypothesis-generating
- hypothesis testing
- plausibility probe
diff case study research designs:
- comparable cases
- most and least likely cases
- deviant cases
- process tracing
selection bias
“single logic” debate
emphasize the utility of multi-method research
introduction: increasingly multi-method research
common idea = good case study research lacks a method = wrong
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
what is a case study?
no consensus on definition
common = case study: attempt to understand and interpret a spatially and temporally bounded set of events
last three decades = polsci moves to more theoretical orietnation -> cases as instance of something else (theoretically defined clas of events)
George and Bennett:
- case = instance of a class of events
- case study= detailed examination of an aspect of a historical episode to develop or test historical explanations that may be generalizable to other events
central question: what is this a case of?
!case is not equivalent to observations: cases include many observations of the same variable
case studies do not equate to a narrative approach: association case studies and qualitative approach is a methodological affinity, not a definitional entailment
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
typology of case studies
most typologies combine research objectives and case selection techniques (e.g. deviant case study for hypothesis generation)
simpler + more useful = focus on theoretical/descriptive purposes of research objectives of a case study + distinguish those from various research designs or case selection techniques
->
- idiographic case studies = aim to describe/explain/interpret a particular case + can be inductive or theory guided
- hypothesis generating case studies + hypothesis testing cases = combine Lijphart’s theory-confirming and theory informing cases
- plausibility probes = intermediary step between hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing, includes illustrative case studies (ideal types)
idiographic case studies
aim to describe/explain/interpret/understand a single case as an end in itself rather than as a vehicle for developing broader theoretical generalizations
= e.g. historians
subtypes = based on how much the analysis is guided by an explicit theoretical framework
inductive/descriptive case studies
= descriptive, lack theoretical framework to guide analysis
- total history idea = everything is connected to everything
- aims to explain all aspects of a case and their interconnections
- still theoretical preconceptions and biases
theory-guided case studies
= structured by conceptual framework focusing on theoretically specified aspects of reality, neglecting others
- e.g. efforts to explain origins of WW1 and the cold war
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
hypothesis-generating case studies
aim to generalize beyond the data
examine case(s) to create a more general theoretical proposition that can be tested through other methods
!contribute to the process of theory construction rather than to theory itself
- theory = logically interconnected set of propositions = requires more deductive orientation than case studies provide
case studies useful to explain cases that don’t fit existing theory, to explain why the case violates theoretical predictions
theory guides an empirical analysis of a case -> case is used to suggest refinements in the theory -> can be tested on other cases
case studies help specify causal mechanisms: process tracing (intensive analysis of the dev of a sequence of events over time)
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
hypothesis testing case studies
hypothesis-testing contributions of crucial case studies based on most/least likely case designs
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
plausibility probes
pilot study ish (pilot study is in experimental or survey research)
allows the researcher to sharpen a hypothesis or theory, to refine the operationalization or measurement of key variables, or to explore the suitability of a particular case as a vehicle for testing a theory before engaging in a costly and time-consuming research effort
the analyst probes the details of a particular case in order to shed light on a broader theoretical argument
e.g. illustrative case studies of IR: brief case studies that fall short of the degree of detail needed to explain a case fully or to test a theoretical proposition
- aim to give the reader a “feel” for a theoretical argument by providing a concrete example of its application
!plausibility probe often used rather loosely (growing theoretical/methodological expectation -> use this as cop-out)
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
varieties of case study research design
increasingly case selection needs to be theoretically justified -> considerations of intrinsic interest or historical importance no longer acceptable
some issues of case selection are important in hypothesis testing are less concerning at the hypothesis-generating stage (e.g. selecting on the DV + appropriate nr of cases)
- the more cases used to construct a theory, the less can be used to test it
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
selection bias
random selection in small-N research -> serious biases
need for theory-guided case selection = risk selection bias
- picking a case used to generate the hypothesis
- picking a case bc it fits the hypothesis
- over-representing cases from either end of the distribution of a key variable (esp. cases with extreme DV values bc it underestimates the strength of causal effects)
- case study research that relies on historians with the same set of analytic biases -> case study researcher predisposed toward certain theoretical interpretations
problem of “selecting on the DV” -> need to include negative cases
but: with process-tracing within case studies selecting on the DV is not a problem bc you’re not comparing + if you’re looking into necessary conditions only cases with an outcome and without the necessary conditions can falsify hypotheses (so then you can select on the DV)
!scholars need to test their explanations against alternative interpretations
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
comparable-case research designs
criticism quantitative res. on case studies = case studies more variables than cases -> df problem -> outcomes causally underdetermined
Lijphart: comparative method follows diff logic, looks at control by selecting comparable cases (to rule out confounds)
-> logic of inference statistical and comparable case methods quite similar
John Stuart Mill: System of Logic =two methods for the empirical testing of theoretical propositions
-> most similar and most diff systems design of Przeworski and Tuene similar
- method of difference = select cases with diff values on the DV and similar values on all but on of the possible IV
- most similar systems design: similar IVs, diff DV - method of agreement = cases that are similar on the DV and diff on all but one of the IVs
- most diff systems design: diff IVs, same DV
problem = identify cases that are truly comparable in this way -> congruence method easier
= longitudinal design looking at a single case over time
problem = causal inference: hard to establish with interaction effects etc. -> Mill’s method needs to be supplemented by within-case methods
(Ragin: multiple conjuctural causation = when nr of variables increases, nr of interaction effects also increases)
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
process tracing
problem with other methods: demonstrating that observed patterns of covariation reflect a causal relationship
-> process tracing (causal process observations) provide additional evidence about cause and effect
= useful for studying e.g. decision-making and complex causation (e.g. analysis path dependence and critical junctures)
process tracing can be combined with other methods to examine alternative causal mechanisms associated with observed patterns of covariation
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
crucial case designs
= based on most-likely or least-likely designs (assume that some cases are more important than others for the purposes of testing a theory)
- when a case is not expected to be consistent with a theory and it is, it leverages support and confidence in our theory
esp. when it is a most-likely case of another theory - !!! Sinatra inference: if I can make it there, I can make it anywhere !!!!
- evidentiary support for a theory from a most likely case or lack of support for a least likely case leads to only a modest shift in one’s confidence in the validity of a theory
= for testing certain types of theoretical arguments (when theory provides precise predictions + when measurement error is low)
e.g. Allison: 3 models of foreign policy decision-making applied to the Cuban missile crisis
- most likely case for rational unity actor model of foreign policy -> evidence contradicted it
- least likely case for alternative organizational process and governmental politics models -> evidence supported this model
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
deviant case design
Focus on observed empirical anomalies in existing theoretical propositions
Aims to explain why a case deviates from theoretical expectations
= to refine existing hypotheses/theories
Similar to studying residuals in statistical methods
Examination of deviant cases -> theory refined -> must be tested against new evidence
Intent often to save a theory from damaging evidence -> contributes to both hypothesis testing, generating and refining
Also important in analysis of borderline cases
Aim to check for the possibility of measurement error in key variables that might affect the classification of cases or the validity of the unit-homogeneity assumption
case studies: types, designs and logics of inference
conclusions
rapidly expanding literature on case study methodology reflects an increasing theoretical orientation and methodological self-consciousness among casestudy researchers. They now generally see cases primarily as vehicles for constructing and supporting broader theoretical generalizations, and even most idiographic studies are guided by a well-developed theoretical framework. The role of theory is particularly evident in the criteria for case selection and logics of interpretation in most/least likely designs, deviantcase strategies, and comparable-case designs.
qualitative methodologists argue that process tracing, unlike large-N and cross-case comparative work, is not susceptible to the problem of selecting cases on the dependent variable, because process tracing follows a different logic of inference
positivism and interpretivism share a goal: deriving testable implications from alternative theories
different = methodological rules about case selection, role of process tracing, emphasis on role of causal mechanisms etc.
case, case study, and causation: core concepts and fundamentals
p. 51.60 “set-relational causation”
set-relational causation = establishes relationships between sets in which cases are either members or nonmembers
- e.g. countries with a large welfare state vs countries without (those are part of the negation of the set of interest)
-> diff from covariational case studies:
- set-relational causation is based on invariant cause-effect relationships
-> you only care about cases within the sets, only about e.g. level of spending in countries with open economies - invariance -> asymmetric causation (rather than symmetric causality in covariational analyses)
- asks how condition X is related to an outcome Y (signals causal inference is about patterns of invariance)
cornerstones of set relations = sufficiency and necessity