Reading 23 Equity Portfolio Management Flashcards
Completeness fund
- A completeness fund, when added to active managers’ positions, establishes an overall portfolio with approximately the same risk exposures as the investor’s overall equity benchmark. For example, the completeness fund may be constructed with the objective of making the overall portfolio sector and/or style neutral with respect to the benchmark while attempting to retain the value added from the active managers’ stock-selection ability. The completeness portfolio may be managed passively or semiactively. This portfolio needs to be re-estimated periodically to reflect changes in the active portfolios.
- One drawback of completeness portfolios is that they essentially seek to eliminate misfit risk. As stated above, a nonzero amount of misfit risk may be optimal. In seeking to eliminate misfit risk through a completeness fund, a fund sponsor may be giving up some of the value added from the stock selection of the active managers.
A socially responsible portfolio tends to shun?
Socially responsible portfolios usually shun basic industries and energy stocks, which tend to be value stocks. This accounts for the bias towards growth stocks in socially responsible portfolios.
Holding-based vs. return-based style analysis
- Holding-based analysis requires more data then returns-based
- Holding-based analysis can pick up style drift faster then return-based analysis
- Holding-based analysis can yield different results depending on the method used
Annual turnover of value and growth investors
- Value investors are typically long-term investors who buy undervalued stocks and hold them until they appreciate. Annual turnover for value managers varies from 20% to 80%.
- Growth managers base their decision on earnings growth and are less patient. They often sell after the next earnings statement comes out. Thus it is not unusual to see annual turnover of 60% to several hundred percent for these investors.
Assume you have enhanced indexing with portfolios A,B and an Index. Formula for active risk?
σactive2= wA2(σA-σIndex)2+wB2(σB-σIndex)2+(1-wA-wB)2 (σIndex-σIndex)2
Use of holding-based style analysis in constructing indices, need for buffering
Most indices use holdings-based style analysis to characterize securities. Holding-based style analysis detects style changes more quickly than return-based style analysis.
If an index has buffering rules, a stock is not immediately moved to a different style category when its style characteristics have slightly changed.
Because holding-based style analysis detects style changes more quickly, buffering would become more necessary so that there is not excessive turnover within the index.
Holdings-based style analysis
Holdings-based style analysis, which categorizes individual securities by their characteristics and aggregates results to reach a conclusion about the overall style of the portfolio at a given point in time. For example, the analyst may examine the following variables:
- Valuation levels. A value-oriented portfolio has a very clear bias toward low P/Es, low P/Bs, and high dividend yields. A growth-oriented portfolio exhibits the opposite characteristics. A market-oriented portfolio has valuations close to the market average.
- Forecast EPS growth rate. A growth-oriented portfolio will tend to hold companies experiencing above-average and/or increasing earnings growth rates (positive earnings momentum). Typically, trailing and forecast EPS growth rates are higher for a growth-oriented portfolio than for a value-oriented portfolio. The companies in a growth portfolio typically have lower dividend payout ratios than those in a value portfolio, because growth companies typically want to retain most of their earnings to finance future growth and expansion.
- Earnings variability. A value-oriented portfolio will hold companies with greater earnings variability because of the willingness to hold companies with cyclical earnings.
- Industry sector weightings. Industry sector weightings can provide some information on the portfolio manager’s favored types of businesses and security characteristics, thus furnishing some information on style. In many markets, value-oriented portfolios tend to have larger weights in the finance and utilities sectors than growth portfolios, because of these sectors’ relatively high dividend yields and often moderate valuation levels. Growth portfolios often have relatively high weights in the information technology and health care sectors, because historically these sectors have often included numerous high-growth enterprises. Industry sector weightings must be interpreted with caution, however. Exceptions to the typical characteristics exist in most if not all sectors, and some sectors (e.g., consumer discretionary) are quite sensitive to the business cycle, possibly attracting different types of investors at different points in the cycle.
Compare misfir risks of the portfolios generated using a core-satellite approach, that is indexed to a broad market, generated using a completeness fund approach
Whenever the manager’s portfolio diverges from the investro’s portfolio, there will be misfit risk. An investor’s portfolio is one that the investor uses to evaluate the manager and may not be appropriate for their style. The investor’s portfolio is usually a broad market benchmark for that asset class.
- By design, the competeness fund results in a reduction of misfit risk.
- The indexed portfolio will have small misfit risk.
- The portfolio generated using a core-satellite approach will have the highest misfit risk because the sarellite portfolios allow for specialized manager styles.
Optimization vs. Stratified sampling (also called representative sampling)
Another technique commonly used to build portfolios containing only a subset of an index’s stocks is optimization. Optimization is a mathematical approach to index fund construction involving the use of:
- a multifactor risk model, against which the risk exposures of the index and individual securities are measured. The multifactor model might include factors such as market capitalization, beta, and industry membership, as well as macroeconomic factors such as interest rate levels.
- an objective function that specifies that securities be held in proportions that minimize expected tracking risk relative to the index subject to appropriate constraints. The objective function seeks to match the portfolio’s risk exposures to those of the index being tracked.
An advantage of optimization compared with stratified sampling is that optimization takes into account the covariances among the factors used to explain the return on stocks. The stratified sampling approach implicitly assumes the factors are mutually uncorrelated.
Optimization has several drawbacks as an approach to indexation:
- First, even the best risk models are likely to be imperfectly specified. That is, it is virtually impossible to create a risk model that exactly captures the risk associated with a given stock, if only because risks change over time and risk models are based on historical data.
- Furthermore, the optimization procedure seeks to maximally exploit any risk differences among securities, even if they just reflect sampling error (this is the problem known as overfitting the data).
- Even in the absence of index changes and dividend flows, optimization requires periodic trading to keep the risk characteristics of the portfolio lined up with those of the index being tracked.
As a result of these limitations, the predicted tracking risk of an optimization-based portfolio will typically understate the actual tracking risk. That said, indexers have found that the results of an optimization approach frequently compare well with those of a stratified sampling approach, particularly when replication is attempted using relatively few securities.
Optimization must be updated to reflect changes in risk sensitivities from the factor model and this leads to frequent rebalancing.
!!! Optimization will provide lower tracking risk compared to stratified samplnig, but it requires more frequent rebalancing. If tracking risk is not highly important, the manager may want to consider stratified sampling since the trading costs in some emerging countries can be particularly high. Stratified sampling also does not require or depend on the use of a model.
Do value and growth stock cover all the universe of stocks?
The value and growth indices by definition do not contain all of the stocks in the broad index
Which of the following selling disciplines would be best for an investor who is concerned about tax implications of a trade?
up-from-cost, opportunity cost, deteriorating fundamentals
If an investor facors in the transactions costs and tax consequences of the sale of the existing security and the purchase of the new security, this approach is referred to as an opportunity cost sell discipline.
Separate or Pooled Accounts (Indexed institutional portfolios)
The principal difference between index mutual funds and exchange-traded funds on the one hand, and indexed institutional portfolios, on the other hand, is cost.
Indexed institutional portfolios managed as separate accounts with a single shareholder or, increasingly, as pooled accounts, are extremely low-cost products.
Buy-Side versus Sell-Side Research
Buy side refers to those who do research with the intent of assembling a portfolio, such as investment management firms.
Sell side refers either to independent researchers who sell their work, or to investment banks/brokerage firms that use research as a means to generate business for themselves. Sell-side research is also what most people hear on TV or read about in the newspaper. Buy-side research by its very nature is generally inaccessible to those outside of the investment firm generating the research.
Value Investment Style
- Value investors are more concerned about buying a stock that is deemed relatively cheap in terms of the purchase price of earnings or assets than about a company’s future growth prospects.
- Empirically, most studies have found that in the long run a value style may earn a positive return premium relative to the market.
- The main risk for a value investor is that he has misinterpreted a stock’s cheapness.
- Value investors also face the risk that the perceived undervaluation will not be corrected within the investor’s investment time horizon.
- The value investing style has at least three substyles: low P/E, contrarian, and high yield:
- A low P/E investor will look for stocks that sell at low prices to current or normal earnings. Such stocks are generally found in industries categorized as defensive, cyclical, or simply out-of-favor. The investor buys on the expectation that the P/E will at least rise as the stock or industry recovers.
- A contrarian investor will look for stocks that have been beset by problems and are generally selling at low P/Bs, frequently below 1. Such stocks are found in very depressed industries that may have virtually no current earnings. The investor buys on the expectation of a cyclical rebound that drives up product prices and demand.
- A yield investor focuses on stocks that offer high dividend yield with prospects of maintaining or increasing the dividend, knowing that in the long run, dividend yield has generally constituted a major portion of the total return on equities.
There are two justifications of a value investing strategy:
- the first is that although a firm`s earnings are depressed now, the earnings will rise in the future as they revert back to the mean. One of the risks of this strategy however is that there is a good reason why the stock is priced so cheaply. Some stock will take a long tine to increase in value. The investor needs to consider it before investing.
- the second justification for value investors os that growth investors expose themselves to the risk that earnings and price multiples will contract for high-priced growth stocks.
Equitizing a Market-Neutral Long–Short Portfolio
A market-neutral long–short portfolio can be equitized (given equity market systematic risk exposure) by holding a permanent stock index futures position (rolling over contracts), giving the total portfolio full stock market exposure at all times. In carrying out this strategy, the manager may establish a long futures position with a notional value approximately equal to the value of the cash position resulting from shorting securities.
Equitizing a market-neutral long–short portfolio is appropriate when the investor wants to add an equity-beta to the skill-based active return the investor hopes to receive from the long–short investment manager.
The rate of return on the total portfolio equals the sum of:
- the gains or losses on the long and short securities positions,
- the gain or loss on the long futures position, and
- any interest earned by the investor on the cash position that results from shorting securities,
all divided by the portfolio equity.
Depending on carrying costs and the ability to borrow ETF shares for short selling, ETFs may be a more attractive way than futures to equitize or de-equitize a long–short alpha over a longer period than the life of a single futures contract.
** Generally if you are long 100% and short say 30% then you will have cash from the short sale proceeds . This is an alpha stratgey which presumably exploits your insights on both the long and short side. However you have reduced exposure to the market by being partially short .You may want more exposure through equity futures . So you might follow a process of equitizing the cash i.e. buy futures or ETF’s with the cash to gain systematic exposure.
Fundamental Law of Active Management
In addition to a high degree of risk control, another reason for the popularity of enhanced index portfolios can be explained in terms of Grinold and Kahn’s Fundamental Law of Active Management. The law states that
IR ≈ IC√Breadth
Translated, this means that the information ratio (IR) is approximately equal to what you know about a given investment (the information coefficient or IC) multiplied by the square root of the investment discipline’s breadth, which is defined as the number of independent, active investment decisions made each year.
Well-executed enhanced indexed strategies may have a relatively high combination of insight and breadth, resulting from the disciplined use of information across a wide range of securities that differ in some important respects. (Note, however, that the number of independent decisions available per period does not necessarily increase with the size of the research universe.)
What style index construction whould increase the portfolio turnover?
Index construction that whould increase the portfolio turnover:
- No overlap betweeen categories* - this tends to create more reassignments of a stock from one category to the other, which increases the number of rebalancing transactions.
- No buffering* - buffering would help avoid frequent changes of classification on stocks that have some characteristics of each style.
- Exclusion of holding companies* - because holding companies’ classifiactions are more stable over time, excluding holding companies would result in higher portfolios.
Socially Responsible Investing
Socially responsible investing, also called ethical investing, integrates ethical values and societal concerns with investment decisions.
SRI stock screens include negative screens and positive screens.
Negative SRI screens apply a set of SRI criteria to reduce an investment universe to a smaller set of securities satisfying SRI criteria. SRI criteria may include:
- industry classification, reflecting concern for sources of revenue judged to be ethically questionable (tobacco, gaming, alcohol, and armaments are common focuses); and
- corporate practices (for example, practices relating to environmental pollution, human rights, labor standards, animal welfare, and integrity in corporate governance).
Positive SRI screens include criteria used to identify companies that have ethically desirable characteristics. Internationally, SRI portfolios most commonly employ negative screens only, a smaller number employ both negative and positive screens, and even fewer employ positive screens only.
Socially responsible portfolios have a potential bias towards growth stocks because they tend to shun basic industries and energy stocks, which are typically value stocks. Socially responsible portfolios also have a bias toward small-cap stocks.
Importance of mean reversion for diffirent types of indexing techniques
- Mean reversion is a cornstone of value investing
- Momentum investors do not want mean reversion
- Optimization is an indexing technique for which mean reversion is unimportant
- As far as market-cap investing goes, reversion to the mean is no more or less important for one capitalization group relative to any other capitaliztion group.
Buffering rules for equity style index
If an index has buffering rules, a stock is not immediately moved to a different style category when its style characteristics have slightly changed. The presense of buffering means thar there will be less turnover in the style indices and hence lower transaciotn costs from rebalancing for managers tracking the index.
The three most important categories of indexed portfolios
The three most important categories of indexed portfolios are:
- conventional index mutual funds;
- exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are based on benchmark index portfolios; and
- separate accounts or pooled accounts, mostly for institutional investors, designed to track a benchmark index.
Decision risk
As used by one authority on investing for private wealth clients, decision risk is the risk of changing strategies at the point of maximum loss.
When compared to institutional investors, decision risk is higher for private wealth clients, and tax issues are generally more complex for private wealth clients.
The Predictive Power of Past Performance
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Compare the use of ETFs or equity futures combined with basket trades for tactical assetr allocation to take advantage of short-term mispricing
Equity fututres contracts have a fininte life and must be periodically rolled over into a new contract whereas ETFs have a theoretically infinite life. A basket may not be shorted if one of the components violates the uptick rule that a security may not be shorted if the last price movement was a decline. ETFs are not subject to the uptick rule.
Growth Investment Styles
- Growth investors are more concerned with earnings. Their underlying assumption is that if a company can deliver future growth in earnings per share and its P/E does not decline, then its share price will appreciate at least at the rate of EPS growth.
- The major risk facing growth investors is that the forecasted EPS growth does not materialize as expected.
- The growth style has at least two substyles: consistent growth and earnings momentum.
- Companies with consistent growth have a long history of unit-sales growth, superior profitability, and predictable earnings.
- Companies with earnings momentum have high quarterly year-over-year earnings growth (e.g., EPS for the first quarter of 2011 represents a large increase over EPS for the first quarter of 2010). Such companies may have higher potential earnings growth rates than consistent growth companies, but such growth is likely to be less sustainable.
Stock index’s characteristics
Four choices determine a stock index’s characteristics: the boundaries of the index’s universe, the criteria for inclusion in the index, how the stocks are weighted, and how returns are calculated.
- The first choice, the boundaries of the stock index’s universe, is important in determining how well the index represents a specific population of stocks. The greater its number of stocks and the more diversified by industry and size, the better the index will measure broad market performance. A narrower universe will measure performance of a specific group of stocks.
- The second choice, the criteria for inclusion, establishes any specific characteristics desired for stocks within the selected universe.
- The third, the weighting of the stocks, is usually a choice among price weighting, value (or float) weighting, or equal weighting.
- The fourth choice, computational method, includes variations such as price only and total return series that include the reinvestment of dividends. Only total return series capture the two sources of equity returns, capital appreciation and dividends.