quasi experimental designs Flashcards
empiricism and determinism
- Empiricism is the process of learning things through direct observation or experience and reflection on those experiences. this grounds what it means to ask an empirical question
- Determinism is the assumption that all events have causes.
Identifying causality involves covariation, temporal order, and control of other factors.
lots of complex steps most of which we will Never be able to address all at the same time but we need to be aware of them and try to get at them in different ways across different studies. - different issues that influence our ability to identify causality include covariation between variables.
Two disciplines?
In 1957 APA President Lee Cronbach described psychology as consisting of two disciplines.
Experimental research (manipulated variables)
Correlational research (subject variables)
Manipulated variables
- Experimental research always involves a manipulated variable
- Determined by the research question and design choices
Also called experimental factor or independent variable
example of manipulated variables
does everything get reduced to exactly the same thing or are there different types of mental representation?
koger shepherd came up with a measure he used to evaluate whether when you use some kind of visual spatial info in your environment it has visual spatial properties in the way that your brain uses it
mental rotation test - ptps asked are these two figures the same except for their orientation?
important variation was on the yes trials sometimes the degraded of rotation in terms of the difference between the figures was very small and sometimes it was very large.
rogers proposla was that if its true that the brain is using some kind of visual spatial coding them we could get some analogue result to the degrees of rotation that we could measure in terms of peoples reaction times.
the more degrees of rotations difference between figures the longer it took people to say yes. if orientations close it was a short time. allowed rogers to draw conclusions on what’s happening in the brain.
used to evaluate hypothesis about gender differences in cog abilities and researchers were interested in identifying potential differences across genders in spatial cognition.
Subject variables
when we are not interested in them we use random assignment
- Correlational research focuses on subject variables that vary across individuals and situations.
- Attributes that pre-exist the study or attributes that occur naturally during the study.
Subject variables can be studied with a range of methods.
Subject variables and sampling
- Because subject variables are not manipulated, in non-experimental research participants are selected or grouped on the basis of individual characteristics.
- In other words, individual differences are especially important in non-experimental research.
Whenever individual differences are important, we must pay special attention to sampling.
Quasi-experimental designs
- Like experimental designs, quasi-experimental designs contain a manipulated variable (IV) and a DV.
- Like correlational research, quasi-experimental designs also contain a subject variable or quasi-independent variable.
- Participants cannot be randomly assigned to a quasi-independent variable.
Studies of quasi-independent variables test differences in distributions between groups (x) on some other variable (y).
title et al 2008
was interested in if men and women had different reaction times in the rotation test.
conclusion = theres a difference in spatial cognition between men and women
In some cases, a third variable can help to clarify the relation between the quasi-experimental and manipulated variable.
Computer game practice improves mental rotation performance, and the effect is stronger for women.
Both groups improved as a result of training
the difference observed at pre-test disappeared
= third varaibe can be critical to interpreting differences that we observe in quasi-experimental designs
quasi experimental design
- The lack of random assignment in quasi-experimental designs means we need to be more cautious about causal inferences.
- In true experimental designs, assuming no confounds, we can infer that IV causes DV.
- In quasi-experimental designs, groups may differ in several ways, so IV cannot be said to cause DV.
- Quasi-experiments require the same processes of critical thinking required by randomized experiments
- Choosing independent & dependent variables wisely
- Identifying useful populations & settings to study
- Ensuring assumptions of statistical tests are met
- Thinking about validity & generalisation
Quasi-experiments require an extra task – critical thinking about confounds & other problems that might result from the lack of random assignment
Correlational designs
- Correlational designs involve two or more variables that you cannot manipulate experimentally.
- A correlation is also a statistical technique used to determine the degree to which two variables are related.
Not all correlational research designs reports correlations in their statistical tests. So the test is not the identifier of the design.
Correlation and causation
To accurately interpret the results of correlational research, we need to consider two problems.
Direction of causation problem: a correlation does not indicate which variable is the cause and which is the effect.
Third variable problem: the correlation between two variables may be the result of some third, unspecified variable.
why are correlational designs of interest?
have higehr external validity as often measure something that is quite consistent overtime
higher reliability - easier to observe same result over and over across different samples in a correlational design than an experimental design
Scatterplots
- Scatterplots graph data from two variables
- The predictor variable is usually plotted on the X-axis, and the outcome or criterion variable on Y-axis
Scatterplots help us recognise relations between variables
correlation tests are good at detecting linear relations but not good at detectimg other kinds of relations
Regression and prediction
Regression is a statistical process for predicting individual scores AND estimating the accuracy of those predictions
Regression allows you to use a predictor variable (X) to predict a criterion variable (Y)
Regression line – straight line on a scatterplot that best summarizes a correlation
on the basis of a regression line we can make some sort of prediction about what would happen if we would observe beyond the observed data.
personality development
Relationships between age and three personality trait scores of the dogs.
a Relationship on the full sample, the four outlier aged dogs are marked with red dots. b Relationship after excluding the four outlier aged dogs.
turcsan et al 2020
gender and degree are not true IV or you can’t assign someone to gender or degree so they are quasi independent or quasi experimental variables. if they bought it into the room its a subject variable.
Two disciplines?
Psychology can draw on the two disciplines of experimental & observational research to address a broader range of questions & at the same time maximise the validity & reliability of our research.
summary
- Goals of research in psychology
The goals of psychological research are broad.
To address those goals fully, we must consider both experimental and non-experimental research designs. - Quasi-experimental designs
Quasi-experimental designs involve groups based on a pre-existing variable.
The lack of random assignment & potential confounds in quasi-experimental designs challenge causal inferences. - Correlational research
Correlational research allows us to examine hypotheses about relations between variables.
Correlational research also challenges causal inferences.
analysising data from non experimental methods - correlation - describing relationships
A correlation exists whenever two variables are associated or related. This idea is implied by the term itself: co for two and relation for, well, relation. Correlations can occur for data of all different types of scales of measurement, but we will focus here on interval and ratio data. In a positive correlation, the relationship is such that a high score on one variable is associated with a high score on the second variable; similarly, a low score on one relates to a low score on the other. A negative correlation, on the other hand, is an inverse relationship. High scores on one variable are associated with low scores on the second variable, and vice versa.
scatterplots
An indication of the strength of a relationship between two variables can be discerned by examining a scatterplot, which is a visual representation of the relationship between the two measured variables. Generally speaking, the stronger the relationship between the two variables, the closer the points on the scatterplot will be a straight line. If there is more variability in the scores for the two variables, then the points on the scatterplot will be more spread out, that is, more scattered. In general, as any correlation weakens, the points on a scatterplot move farther away from the diagonal lines that would connect the points in a perfect correlation.
Some relationships are not linear, however, and applying statistical procedures that assume linearity will fail to identify the true nature of the relationship.
correlation coefficients
The strength and direction of a correlation is indicated by the size of a statistic called the coefficient of correlation. The most common coefficient is the Pearson’s r, named for Karl Pearson, the British statistician who rivals Sir Ronald Fisher (the ANOVA guy) in stature.6 Pearson’s r is calculated for data measured on either an interval or a ratio scale of measurement. Other kinds of correlations can be calculated for data measured on other scales. For instance, a correlation coefficient called Spearman’s rho (reads “row”) is calculated for ordinal (i.e., rankings) data and a chi‐square test of independence (also invented by Pearson) or the phi coefficient works for nominal data.
The correlation coefficient itself ranges from −1.00 for a perfect negative correlation, through 0.00 for no relationship, to +1.00 for a perfect positive correlation. The digit represents the strength of the relationship between two variables: the closer the coefficient is to 1 or −1, the stronger the relationship. The sign of the coefficient represents the direction of the relationship, either positive or negative.
Another way to interpret the correlation coefficient is in a form of effect size of the strength of the relationship between two variables. Psychologists often use Cohen’s (1988) conventions of .10 for a small effect size, .30 for a medium effect size, and .50 for a large effect size. So, if one obtains a Pearson’s r of .23, one may interpret the correlation as having a small‐to‐medium‐sized relationship between the two variables.
coefficient of determination
A better interpretation of a correlation is to use what is called the coefficient of determination (r2 ). It is found by squaring the Pearson’s r—hence, the coefficient will always be a positive number, regardless of whether the correlation is positive or negative. Technically, r2 is defined as the percent of variance in one variable that is explained by the other variable. Another way to think of this is how much variability is shared across both variables, a concept called shared variance.
Notice, for example, that for a correlation of +.70, the coefficient of determination is .49, while a correlation of +.50 has an r2 of .25. We might be tempted to think the relationships are both “strong” correlations, according to Cohen’s (1988) conventions. However, the reality is the amount of shared variance is almost twice as much in the first case as in the second. That is, a correlation of +.70 is much stronger than a correlation of +.50.
outliers
outlier is a score that is dramatically different from the remaining scores in a data set. with correlational research an outlier can seriously distort the calculated value of Pearsons r and the coefficient of determination (r^2). the best way to spot an outlier in an correlational study is to look at the scatterplot.
regression - making predictions
in non- experimental designs researchers can use regression techniques to predict behaviours based on the correlations between variables. making predictions on the basis of correlations is referred to as doing a regression analysis. If you know a statistically significant correlation exist between two variables, the knowing the score on one of the variables and they was due to predict a score on the other. A regression line is used for making the predictions and is also called the line of best fit. It provides the best possible way of summarising the points on the S scatterplot. Precisely if you look at the absolute values of the shortest distances between each part in the line low distances would be at a minimum. In regression analysis a regression equation is used to predict a value for y based on a given value of X. why is sometimes referred to as the criterion variable and x as a predictor variable. in Order to predict with confidence however the correlation must be seen significantly greater than zero. The higher the correlation the closer the points on the scatter plot will be to the regression line and the more confident you can be in your prediction. and that confidence can be expressed mathematically in the form of a confidence interval as a way of determining a range of scores within which the true mean of a population is likely to be found. When making a prediction in aggression analysis it is possible to establish a range of scores for the prediction within which the true prediction is likely to occur a higher percentage of times. In general as the correlation gets stronger can be more confident of the prediction. This will be reflected in a narrower range of scores when the confidence interval is calculated.
The actual regression analysis will yield standardized estimates of the strength of the predictor variable’s ability to predict changes in the outcome or criterion variable; this is estimate is usually a beta coefficient, represented as β. Technically, beta is the slope of the regression line, as represented in the formula for creating a straight line on a graph with X and Y coordinates, where X would be the predictor variable and Y would be the criterion variable:
Y = a + bX
Beta can be interpreted in a similar fashion as a correlation coefficient, but a regression analysis also yields information about how strong those predictors are. Statistical tests of whether the predictor variable is a statistically significant predictor are calculated in a regression analysis and may be reported as F‐ or t‐tests
we have described what is known as a bivariate approach to data analysis, which investigates the relationships between any two variables. A multivariate approach, on the other hand, examines the relationships among more than two variables (often many more than two). In the case of simple, linear regression, two variables are involved: the predictor variable and the outcome variable.
Multiple regression solves the problem of having more than one predictor of some outcome. A multiple regression analysis has one criterion variable and a minimum of two predictor variables. The analysis enables you to determine not just that these two or more variables combine to predict some criterion but also how they uniquely predict some criterion variable. Multiple regression allows the researcher to estimate the relative strengths of the predictors. These strengths are reflected in the multiple regression formula for raw scores, which is an extension of the formula for simple regression:
Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + …. + bnXn
where each X is a different predictor score; Y is the criterion, or the score being predicted; and the size of the b’s are the beta coefficients that reflect the relative importance of each predictor— they are also known as beta weights in multiple regression (Licht, 1995). A multiple regression analysis also yields a multiple correlation coefficient (R) and a multiple coefficient of determination (R2 R is a correlation between the combined predictors and the criterion, and R2 ). provides an index of the variation in the criterion variable that can be accounted for by the combined predictors. Note the use of upper case letters to differentiate the multivariate R and R2 r and r2 correlation, and both R2 tell you about the amount of shared, explained variation. from the bivariate Pearson’s . Their interpretations are similar, however. Both R and r tell you about the strength of a and r2 The advantage of a multiple regression analysis is that when the influences of several predictor variables are combined (especially if the predictors are not highly correlated with each other), prediction improves compared to the single regression case.
interpreting correlational results - directionality
If there is a correlation between two variables, A and B, it is possible that A is causing B to occur (A → B), but it also could be that B is causing A to occur (B → A). That the causal relation could occur in either direction is known as the directionality problem. The existence of the correlation by itself does not allow one to decide about the direction of causality.
Choosing the correct causal direction is not possible based on an existing correlation. However, the directionality problem can be addressed to some extent. The approach derives from the criteria for determining causality. research psychologists are generally satisfied with attributing causality between A and B when they occur together with some regularity, when A precedes B in time, when A causing B makes sense in relation to some theory, and when other explanations for their co‐occurrence can be ruled out. using a procedure called a cross‐lagged panel correlation, it is possible to increase one’s confidence about directionality. In essence, this procedure investigates correlations between variables at several points in time. Hence, it is a type of longitudinal design, adding the causal element of A preceding B.