Probability and Statistics Flashcards
probability
the measure of how likely a particular event or outcome is to occur
statistics
the analysis and interpretation of numerical data
factorial n!
- product of all positive integers from 1 to n
- for example
6 ! = 6 x5x4 x3 x2x1= 720
-equal to the number of ways of arranging n distinct objects in a sequence
permutation
- an order-conscious subset of elements taken from a set
- order is significant –abc and bca are different permutations
For example if a set contains a,b,c and d, 24 permutation of three elements are possible: abc, abd, acb, acd, adb, adc, bac, bad, bca, bcd, bda, bdc, cab, cad, cba, cbd, cda, cdb, dab, dac, dba, dbc, dca, dcb
combination
- a subset of elements taken from a set
- order is not significant– abc and bca are the same combination
For example, if a set constains a,b,c and d four combinations of three elements are possible: abc, abd, acd, and bcd
The combination abc could also be written as acb, bac, bca, cab, or cba. All six represent the same combination
set
a collection of elements
elements
a single item or outcome
outcome
a possible result of an experiment or trial
event
A set of outcomes that satisfy a particular condition
sample space, S
- the set containing all possible items or outcomes in the situation being studied
- also called universe, U
independent events
- if the success or failure of event A has no affect on the probability of even B, then the two events are independent
For example, a die is rolled twice: - Event A is rolling a six on the first roll of a die
- Event B is rolling a six on the second roll
Events A & B are independent
dependent events
- If the success or failure of events A affects the probability of event B, then the two events are dependent
mode
the value that occurs most frequently in the sample set
median
the point in the sample set at which there are equal numbers of samples above and below
mean
the sum of all samples in the set divided by the numbers of samples
weighted arithmetic mean
- used when some data are more significant than others
- wi= weight assigned to datum, Xi
geometric mean of the sample
- the number that, when raised to the power of the sample size, gives the product of all samples
root mean square value
the square root of the arithmetic mean of the squares of all squares
standard deviation
measures amount of dispersion in data set
- low means that data tend to be gathered close to mean value
- high means that data tend to be spread out over wide range of values
variance
the square of the standard deviation
random variable
assigns a real value to each possible sample point in sample space
discrete random variables
there are finite numbers of possible numbers that the random variable can take on
continuous random variables
- the random variable can take on any value over an interval on the real number line
probability density function (PDF)
- Provides probability to each numerical output of the random variable (RV)
- In the case of continuous RV, the PDF gives the density at that point
- In the case of discrete RV, the PDF is a sum of impulses, each impulse with a magnitude of the probability equal to that numerical outcome
binomial distribution
- Given n trials the binomial distribution provides the likelihood that there will x successes
- n is the number of trials
- p is the probability of success
- q is the probability of failure whre
q=1-p
normal or Gaussian distribution
- frequently occurring a natural distribution when multiple random parameters all effect the outcome
unit normal table
- the probability density function, f(x) is difficult to evaluate
- instead, it is common to use a unit normal table to find values for the corresponding cumulative distribution function Fx(x)
- a unit normal table is normalized for a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one
t-distribution
estimating statistics of normal distribution when sample size is small
- arises when using sample mean and variance as estimates for normal distribution
- student’s t-test used for testing significance of difference between two sample means
- as number of degrees of freedom increases, t-distribution approaches normal distribution
hypothesis testing
the process of making decision with a specified level of confidence about a statistical parameter being evaluated
common hypothesis tests
- Determine whether the average value taken from n samples could have come from a certain type of distribution
- Determine whether the sample variance taken from n sample could have come from a certain type of distribution
null hypothesis H0
assumption being tested
alternative Hypothesis, H1
must be true if H0 is not true