Probability

Question 1

Objective probability

Answer 1

• Frequentist or propensity account

Question 2

Frequentist account

Answer 2

• Account of objective probability

* The frequency of things - “how many heads will we get if we flip a coin 100 times? 50”

Question 3

Propensity account

Answer 3

• Account of objective probability

* The tendency of outcomes - “the coin is equally likely to land on heads as tails”, “more likely to pick green ball”

Question 4

Subjective Probability

Answer 4

• Probability that we believe. Subjective.

Question 5

{x, y, z}

Answer 5

Possible outcomes are x, y, and z

Set of possible outcomes “heads” and “tails” ->
{H, T}

Question 6

Experiment

Answer 6

Each flip, each turn etc. you take

Question 7

Regression toward the mean

Answer 7

The tendency for people who receive high or low scores on a particular measure to score closer to the mean on a subsequent testing
• Movement of means can sometimes cause researchers to misinterpret their data and pose a threat to internal validity

Question 8

Tversky and Kahneman

Answer 8

Economics - human judgement is not rational and subject to many biases. People solve the complex task of assessing probabilities by using a number of heuristics.

Question 9

What is the advantage to heuristics?

Answer 9

Generally useful, lead to reasonable solutions while minimising cognitive burden

Question 10

What is the disadvantage to heuristics?

Answer 10

Can lead to systematic biases in assessing and interpreting probabilities

Question 11

What are 3 classic heuristics?

Answer 11

1) Representativeness
2) Availability
3) Anchoring