Prediction and Forecasting

Question 1

Earthquakes

Answer 1

FORECASTING:

How are they forecasted?: GIS Mapping, Hazard Mapping

Effectiveness?: Only long term effective as gives time to prepare e.g. education. May encourage gov to enforce good building regs

Not Effective?: Short term forecasts less useful as unable to know when to start preparing/ evacuating

PREDICTION:

How are they predicted?: Inadvanced prediction models

Effective?: No, unable to predict temporally only spatially, so evacuations etc.. can’t be done. Prediction models not advanced

Question 2

TSUNAMIS

Answer 2

PREDICTION:

How are they predicted?: Deep Ocean Sensors (Detect earthquake tremours), communication infrastructure (Able to communicate with coastal areas)

Effective?: Able to prepare + evac if can alert coasts/ detect tremours. Able to take precautions after earthquake

Not effectice?: Unable to temporally predict long term so when do detect, have very little time to prepare

Question 3

Volcanoes

Answer 3

PREDICTION

How are they predicted?: Visual Signs e.g. volcano change shape, ground swells, gas erupting

Effective?: Historically, clear warning signs have reduced deaths e.g. Iceland eruption 0 deaths as evacuated everyone in area

Not effective?: Sometimes no physical signs, along with unable to detect secondary/ primary hazards e.g. lahars, pyro flows e.g. Lahars on Mt Pinatubo caused many extra deaths