Practice MC Flashcards
The actual value from five periods ago has no effect on an MA forecast with n=3.
- True
- False
True
Which measure of forecast accuracy gives disproportionately high weight to large errors?
- MAD
- CFE (bias)
- MSE
- MAPE
MSE
What can we do to ensure a fair comparison for models that calibrate historical data?
- run a regression
- use a MSE
- use training and testing datasets
- use a bias adjustment
Use training and testing datasets
Requiring reservations is a way to deal with which type of variability?
Arrival
What is the symbol for our random variable in the newsvendor formula?
d
Housekeepers cost $200 if scheduled in advance and $300 if scheduled at last minute. What is Cu?
Cu = $100
Which of the following is NOT a step in a Monte Carlo experiment?
- generating random numbers
- aggregating results from replications
- defining system logic
- interpreting the sensitivity report
Interpreting the sensitivity report
Which Excel function represents a coin flip (1=heads, 0=tails)?
Randbetween(0,1)
You flip 10 coins. What most directly tells you the probability of exactly 3 heads = 12%?
- probability mass function
- cumulative distribution function
- probability density function
- Monte Carlo function
Probability mass function
You flip 10 coins. What most directly tells you the probability of 3 or fewer heads = 19%?
- probability mass function
- cumulative distribution function
- probability density function
- Monte Carlo function
Cumulative distribution function
Our housekeeping simulation model contained 500 _____
replications
You get dining duration data & calculate mean, std. dev. You simulate using NORM.INV(90,15,RAND()). Method used?
- expert opinion
- resample existing data
- fit to distribution
- none of the above
Fit to distribution
