politics - armed conflict Flashcards
causes
political dictatorship, religion & ethnicity, Arab Spring
political dictatorship
Assad family rule since 1970
Bashar al-Assad won every election since 2000
religion & ethnicity
74% Sunni population, 12% Shia islam, Alawite sect
Arab spring
north Africa and Middle East 2010-2011
march 2011 protest in Daraa open fire
may 9th 1000 civilians killed
syrian government
33 chemical weapon attacks e.g Ghouta 2013, protection of UNSC allies
FSA
formed July 2011, ex-Syrian army members direct resources against ISIS
SDF
formed 2015, Arab and Kurdish militia, US actively trained tens of thousands against ISIS
US withdrawal of troops in 2019, Turkish gov launched ‘Operation Peace Spring’ to remove SDF from borders
US
2015 provided technical & military support for FSA and Kurds, launched military strikes against ISIS, use of chemical weapons is ‘red line for us’ -Obama
2017 airstrike response to chemical weapon use
2019 began removing troops, 900 left in 2020
UN
deployed 4 special envoys, diplomats tasked with mediating with no success, humanitarian agencies used
2015 UNSC unanimous call for SCC
SCC
announced sept, 2019
150 members (50,50,50 (15,15,15)
syrian gov lack ‘true engagement’ and make ‘irrelevant’ proposals to stall peace process
China
as of July 2023, vetoed 9 draft resolutions, non-interference stance, Assad victory economically beneficial for China’s gov for Chinese construction companies
Russia
2015 military intervention by airstrikes ‘against ISIS’ but on rebel held areas
as of 2023, vetoed 17 UNSC draft resolutions
63,000 russian troops deployed
national interest (challenge)
US - support rebels
Russia - diplomatic support through UNSC and airstrikes
China - diplomatic support through UNSC and non-intervention
Deadlocked security council (challenge)
evident in July 2022, Russia vetoed Resolution S/2022/538 that called for remaining UN border crossing to remain open for another year, that provided medicine, food and aid to 2.4 mill, argues violation of Syria’s sovereignty
‘country who shamelessly deployed veto’ - UN
religious and ethnic divided (challenge)
divine of ethnic line, 12% Alawite leaders
globalisation (challenge)
ISIS - 45,000 forge in fighters, 100 different weapons from 25 different states
advances in weapon and military capabilities causes proxy conflict e.g US and Russia thousands of airstrikes
intervention (key aspect)
US: august 2013, syrian gov accused of chemical weapon attack killing more then 1400
crossed ‘red line’ - Obama
sept 2014, US and Arab allies launch air raids against ISIS
Washington deploys 2000 soldiers
war as instrument of state policy (key aspect)
Russia: defence minister Sergei Shoigu stated at end of 2018 48,000 personnel deployed to Syria, Russia airforce flow 39,000 sorties destroying 121,466 ‘terrorist targets’, killing more then 86,000 ‘militants’
testing of 600 weapons in 2017
2017, 4 deescalation zones, in 5 years largely eliminated moderate opposition
leading role of military power, political leverage acquired but not same influence as US
prosecuting war crimes
alleged crimes e.g chemical weapon attacks
difficulties for ICC: syria not a member, arrest needs UNSC support
UNSC draft resolution 348, 2018, Russia and china vetoed draft that called for UN to refer Syria to ICC
December 2016, Resolution 71/248: IIIM
Feb 2021, court in Kobluz germany, senatnce former mener of Assad security team to 4 and a half years for crimes against humanity
jan 2022, Syrian intelligence officer sentenced to life for 30 counts of murder and 4000 of terrorism
