politics - armed conflict

Question 1

causes

Answer 1

political dictatorship, religion & ethnicity, Arab Spring

Question 2

political dictatorship

Answer 2

Assad family rule since 1970
Bashar al-Assad won every election since 2000

Question 3

religion & ethnicity

Answer 3

74% Sunni population, 12% Shia islam, Alawite sect

Question 4

Arab spring

Answer 4

north Africa and Middle East 2010-2011
march 2011 protest in Daraa open fire
may 9th 1000 civilians killed

Question 5

syrian government

Answer 5

33 chemical weapon attacks e.g Ghouta 2013, protection of UNSC allies

Question 6

FSA

Answer 6

formed July 2011, ex-Syrian army members direct resources against ISIS

Question 7

SDF

Answer 7

formed 2015, Arab and Kurdish militia, US actively trained tens of thousands against ISIS
US withdrawal of troops in 2019, Turkish gov launched ‘Operation Peace Spring’ to remove SDF from borders

Question 8

US

Answer 8

2015 provided technical & military support for FSA and Kurds, launched military strikes against ISIS, use of chemical weapons is ‘red line for us’ -Obama
2017 airstrike response to chemical weapon use
2019 began removing troops, 900 left in 2020

Question 9

UN

Answer 9

deployed 4 special envoys, diplomats tasked with mediating with no success, humanitarian agencies used
2015 UNSC unanimous call for SCC

Question 10

SCC

Answer 10

announced sept, 2019
150 members (50,50,50 (15,15,15)
syrian gov lack ‘true engagement’ and make ‘irrelevant’ proposals to stall peace process

Question 11

China

Answer 11

as of July 2023, vetoed 9 draft resolutions, non-interference stance, Assad victory economically beneficial for China’s gov for Chinese construction companies

Question 12

Russia

Answer 12

2015 military intervention by airstrikes ‘against ISIS’ but on rebel held areas
as of 2023, vetoed 17 UNSC draft resolutions
63,000 russian troops deployed

Question 13

national interest (challenge)

Answer 13

US - support rebels
Russia - diplomatic support through UNSC and airstrikes
China - diplomatic support through UNSC and non-intervention

Question 14

Deadlocked security council (challenge)

Answer 14

evident in July 2022, Russia vetoed Resolution S/2022/538 that called for remaining UN border crossing to remain open for another year, that provided medicine, food and aid to 2.4 mill, argues violation of Syria’s sovereignty
‘country who shamelessly deployed veto’ - UN

Question 15

religious and ethnic divided (challenge)

Answer 15

divine of ethnic line, 12% Alawite leaders

Question 16

globalisation (challenge)

Answer 16

ISIS - 45,000 forge in fighters, 100 different weapons from 25 different states
advances in weapon and military capabilities causes proxy conflict e.g US and Russia thousands of airstrikes

Question 17

intervention (key aspect)

Answer 17

US: august 2013, syrian gov accused of chemical weapon attack killing more then 1400
crossed ‘red line’ - Obama
sept 2014, US and Arab allies launch air raids against ISIS
Washington deploys 2000 soldiers

Question 18

war as instrument of state policy (key aspect)

Answer 18

Russia: defence minister Sergei Shoigu stated at end of 2018 48,000 personnel deployed to Syria, Russia airforce flow 39,000 sorties destroying 121,466 ‘terrorist targets’, killing more then 86,000 ‘militants’
testing of 600 weapons in 2017
2017, 4 deescalation zones, in 5 years largely eliminated moderate opposition
leading role of military power, political leverage acquired but not same influence as US

Question 19

prosecuting war crimes

Answer 19

alleged crimes e.g chemical weapon attacks
difficulties for ICC: syria not a member, arrest needs UNSC support
UNSC draft resolution 348, 2018, Russia and china vetoed draft that called for UN to refer Syria to ICC
December 2016, Resolution 71/248: IIIM
Feb 2021, court in Kobluz germany, senatnce former mener of Assad security team to 4 and a half years for crimes against humanity
jan 2022, Syrian intelligence officer sentenced to life for 30 counts of murder and 4000 of terrorism