Political Stability (Reasons for political instability) Flashcards
Political parties’ fractiousness in the absence of an established central authority- Indonesia
4 main contesting political parties (Masjumi, PNI, PKI, Nadhalatul Ulama (NU)). From 1949-1959, the Indonesian system was a weak multiparty parliamentary democracy, characterized by the rise and fall of coalition governments. Between 1949 and 1955, five cabinets rose and fell from power. Loose coalitions were formed and dissolved as parties engaged in horse-trading. (None of the parties held the majority vote). The result was an unstable government with little legitimacy among the people. Multifarious political actors led to the absence of a clear source of political authority
Political parties’ fractiousness in the absence of an established central authority- Burma
AFPFL had a very weak unity, there are many different factions held together under one party. After the All-Burma AFPFL Congress in January 1958, the AFPFL broke into two distinct factions: the ‘Stable’ AFPFL under Socialist U Ba Swe and U Kyaw Nyein; and the ‘Clean’ AFPFL under U Nu. U Nu’s intention to transform the AFPFL from a coalition to a unitary party, requiring all affiliates to adhere to the party line and assume a subordinate status had roused further political discontent.
Ethnic insurgencies- Indoensia
In 1958, there was a major PRRI (Permerintah Revolusioner Republik Indonesia) rebellion by non-communist, anti-Sukarnoist and factional military dissatisfactions in Sumatra. In essence, the Sumatran regional army rebelled against the central army.
Ethnic insurgencies- Burma
Deep ethnic divisions compounded the challenge for U Nu’s government. Despite the promisers of the 1947 Constitution, no middle ground could be reached between the Burman desire for full control and autonomy for the minorities. Without a leader who was accepted by all groups, and a system which can absorb the political participation of these groups, the atmosphere of democratic pluralism only served to fuel differences and domestic instability.
Communist threat- Indonesia
PKI ‘s growth was spectacular just ahead of the 1955 elections. By end of 1954, membership trebled to 500,000, and by the end of 1955 was 1 million. Hence, the influence and popularity of communists grew. It was a threat to the army and political stability.
Communist threat- Burma
Than Tun’s ‘White Flag’ Communist battalions left the army in 1948. Although the communists lacked the organizational strength and funding to take over the states, it remained popular among the peasants and workers. Under Than Tun, they started one of the longest Communist insurgencies in SEA.
Democratic leaders inability to perform- Indonesia
The 1949-1950 Revolution unleased political energies and aspirations among different groups which went unresolved due to United Nations intervention- the Dutch educated leaders, angry revolutionary pemuda, the army and the communists. Although it appeared as though the Dutch-educated leaders had won, the basis of their power was far from strong. Political pressures from various groups would eventually cripple the new government as Suharto couldn’t bridge the political divides among the political parties.
Democratic leaders inability to perform- burma
Despite the relatively peaceful transfer, the swift British withdrawal failed to prepare the political elites for democratic governance. No long-term design of power-sharing among the various ethnic groups was brokered for, neither were consensual political behaviours practiced. A Burman-led movement could not appease all minority groups for long- civil war broke out in 1948 first with the Christian Karens and has plagued Burma ever since. The assassination of Bogyoke Aung San was a critical loss for Burma. In the absence of a strong leader who could pull the warring factions together, the twin threats of the Communists and the minorities came to a head within a decade to wreck the political peace in U NU’s Burma.
Unsound political and economic policies- Indonesia
Suharto’s policy reversal against IMF recommendations, in support of his family’s and business associates’ interests, saw him reopen 2 banks owned by his family despite the closing down of 16 banks. His new cabinet in 1998 was also filled with his cronies and family, with his daughter as Minister for Social Affairs and cukong, Bob Hasan as Minister for Trade. Mass unhappiness with widespread unemployment and corruption finally culminated in the Trisakti University Protests in 12 May 1998, and eventually led to Suharto’s resignation on 21 May.
Unsound political and economic policies- Burma
Economic frustration built up more sharply from 1987 with a series of poor economic policies on rice exports and prices, These resulted in a pervasive atmosphere of economic fear in the country across 1987-1988. Eventually led to the ‘8888’ protests in 1988 where the Tatmadaw responded with brutality, it only ended when a military coup happened.
mil as a viable alternative- thailand
Economic dislocation suffered by the masses in the post-war era resulted in protests and strikes that did not only disrupted political stability but also discredited the civilian Pridi government’s ability to govern peacefully. Together with the confusion surrounding the assassination of King Ananda, it became a platform for Phibun to launch a putsch and set up a maximum regime in order to restore order.
mil as a viable alternative- Indonesia
Under Sukarno’s regime, economic performance continued its downward spiral while at the same time Sukarno continued to align itself with the communist party PKI. Sukarno’s shift toward the PKI had provoked increasing dissatisfaction among the anti-communist conservative factions in the Army. Hence, General Suharto led the army in a coup while purging the PKI. Eventually, the weak civilian government and Sukarno was overthrown.
mil as a viable alternative- burma
o B: From 1955 to 1962, U Nu’s Burma was plagued by the domestic ethnic and communist insurgencies, as well as political divisions. The AFPFL’s political decline was mirrored by the military’s rise to power. The latter’s role in desisting the insurgencies led to the growth of its confidence and stature. The military hence intervened with a coup de tat on 2 March 1962.
