Philosophy Final Part 3

Question 1

hypothesis

Answer 1

possible claims or theories that might explain evidence

Question 2

theory

Answer 2

a big connected set of claims that we don’t know with absolute certainty

Question 3

criteria for goodness of explanations

Answer 3

1. H makes E more likely
2. H is intrinsically plausible: simple or elegant
3. H is extrinsically plausible: fits well with our view of the world

Question 4

how arguments that can be interpreted as deductively fallacious are more charitably interpreted using IBE

Answer 4

i.e. Bob has a red face, so he must be mad

Question 5

how is it that we can get lots of evidence for a hypothesis, without that hypothesis being worthy of belief

Answer 5

its not plausible

Question 6

gambler’s fallacy

Answer 6

gambler knows game is fair but makes mistake about independence
i.e. three heads in a row, next one must be tails

Question 7

reverse gambler’s fallacy

Answer 7

3 heads in a row, next one must be heads (winning streak)

Question 8

fair gambling setup

Answer 8

• unbiased towards any outcome

- outcomes are independent

Question 9

disjunction

Answer 9

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Question 10

disjunction with exclusivity

Answer 10

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Question 11

conjunction with exclusivity

Answer 11

P(A and B) = 0

Question 12

P(A) =

Answer 12

1 - P(not A)

Question 13

P(A | B) =

Answer 13

1 - P(not A | B)

Question 14

conjunction fallacy

Answer 14

like the representative heuristic

probability of linda being a feminist and a bank teller is lower than the probability she is just a bank teller

Question 15

logical consequence rule

Answer 15

if B entails A, then B is less probable than A
if P(A|B)  = 1, P(B) <= P(A)

Question 16

conditional probability

Answer 16

P(A | B) = P(A and B) / P(B)

Question 17

goose rule

Answer 17

If not E would’ve been evidence for H, E is evidence against H
If not E would’ve been evidence against H, E is evidence for H
(considering the opposite)

Question 18

prosecutor’s fallacy

Answer 18

assuming that the probability of a random match is equal to the probability that the defendant is innocent

Question 19

utility

Answer 19

amount of satisfaction you get from something

Question 20

how risk framing can affect decisions irrationally

Answer 20

people behave differently depending on whether or not something is framed as a loss

Question 21

how we treat new risks different from old risks

Answer 21

we will pay more to reduce or avert new risks than to reduce or eliminate old risks

Question 22

endowment effects

Answer 22

people are attached to what is theirs to begin with

Question 23

possibility & certainty effects

Answer 23

people are more motivated by certainty

explains lottery gambling

Question 24

hyperbolic discounting

Answer 24

discounting occurs rapidly at first, the more slowly as time increases