Philosophy Final Part 3 Flashcards
hypothesis
possible claims or theories that might explain evidence
theory
a big connected set of claims that we don’t know with absolute certainty
criteria for goodness of explanations
- H makes E more likely
- H is intrinsically plausible: simple or elegant
- H is extrinsically plausible: fits well with our view of the world
how arguments that can be interpreted as deductively fallacious are more charitably interpreted using IBE
i.e. Bob has a red face, so he must be mad
how is it that we can get lots of evidence for a hypothesis, without that hypothesis being worthy of belief
its not plausible
gambler’s fallacy
gambler knows game is fair but makes mistake about independence
i.e. three heads in a row, next one must be tails
reverse gambler’s fallacy
3 heads in a row, next one must be heads (winning streak)
fair gambling setup
- unbiased towards any outcome
- outcomes are independent
disjunction
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
disjunction with exclusivity
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
conjunction with exclusivity
P(A and B) = 0
P(A) =
1 - P(not A)
P(A | B) =
1 - P(not A | B)
conjunction fallacy
like the representative heuristic
probability of linda being a feminist and a bank teller is lower than the probability she is just a bank teller
logical consequence rule
if B entails A, then B is less probable than A if P(A|B) = 1, P(B) <= P(A)
conditional probability
P(A | B) = P(A and B) / P(B)
goose rule
If not E would’ve been evidence for H, E is evidence against H
If not E would’ve been evidence against H, E is evidence for H
(considering the opposite)
prosecutor’s fallacy
assuming that the probability of a random match is equal to the probability that the defendant is innocent
utility
amount of satisfaction you get from something
how risk framing can affect decisions irrationally
people behave differently depending on whether or not something is framed as a loss
how we treat new risks different from old risks
we will pay more to reduce or avert new risks than to reduce or eliminate old risks
endowment effects
people are attached to what is theirs to begin with
possibility & certainty effects
people are more motivated by certainty
explains lottery gambling
hyperbolic discounting
discounting occurs rapidly at first, the more slowly as time increases
