Peace operations Flashcards
Caplan’s definition of peace
peace as an essentially contested concept. Is peace characterized by the absence (total? partial?) of armed conflict (defined how?) or does it exhibit (require?) additional features such as broad shifts (elite? popular?) in attitude? There is no consensus among scholars and practitioners as to the characteristics of peace. This is because ambiguity is inherent in the concept of peace.
negative peace
refers to the ‘absence of violence, absence of war’,
o A negative or ‘cold’ peace may exist between adversaries—as with the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War—or between formerly warring states—as with Egypt and Israel today—and it may even be a stable peace
positive peace
refers to the ‘integration of human society’ such that conflict is not eliminated but ‘dynamics without recourse to violence is built into the system.
a positive or ‘warm’ peace—is required, as might be achieved, for instance, through processes of reconciliation and confidence-building.
peace- Klein, Goertz and Dieh
a peace scale: rivalry at one end (1.0) a pluralistic security community at the other end (0.0), and low-level conflict (0.75), negative peace (0.5), and positive peace (0.25) between the two poles. Corresponding to each of the five points on the scale are a series of descriptive indicators that provide further specification. While the terms are not all appropriate for intra-state conflict, the table exemplifies the use of the notion of gradations or degrees of peace.
o They demonstrate that peace is a much more complex concept than the simple binary distinction between negative and positive peace would suggest. Captures the ideas of negative and positive peace?
peacebuilding/ peacekeeping definition
according to Caplan
refers to the array of third-party interventions that contribute to the consolidation of peace, thus blurring the rather bureaucratic and programmatic distinctions that exist, within the UN for instance, between peacekeeping and peacebuilding – the two can overlap significantly.
peacekeeping
Peacekeeping involves the deployment of neutral third-party forces, typically under the mandate of the United Nations or regional organizations, to monitor and enforce ceasefires, facilitate negotiations, and maintain stability in conflict zones.
Objectives: The primary objective of peacekeeping is to maintain peace and stability by separating conflicting parties, reducing violence, and creating conditions conducive to negotiations and reconciliation.
peace building
Peacebuilding involves a comprehensive and long-term process of addressing the root causes of conflict, promoting reconciliation, fostering sustainable peace, and rebuilding societies affected by violence.
Objectives: The primary objective of peacebuilding is to address the structural, social, economic, and political factors that contribute to conflict, thereby preventing its recurrence and promoting lasting peace and development.
post-conflict
Caplan - No society is without conflict and even ‘peaceful’ societies may experience episodes of violence associated with prior conflict.
eg - clashes over the use of the Confederate flag in the United States more than 150 years after the formal end of the civil war there.
What matters is the degree of violence that a society experiences- the term will be used in reference to the period following the cessation of armed conflict
Conflict and peace
Following from the ACD data definition, conflicts are defined by a minimum of twenty-five battle related deaths per year and a peace period cannot be shorter than 1 year
Caplan overall argument
External efforts to restore peace have had mixed results
The first problem is that there is no consensus among scholars as to which causal factors matter or matter most.
The second problem with this approach to measuring peace consolidation is that it assumes that the causes of conflict onset and the causes of conflict recurrence are one and the same- the root causes of a conflict may no longer pertain as a consequence of changes that the conflict may have generated.
Caplan example of Central African Republic
civil war in CAR 2004-2007
CAR is one of six countries on the agenda of the UN’s Peacebuilding Commission, the UN body established in 2005 with a mandate to support recovery efforts in countries emerging from violent conflict
recurrence of violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) in late 2012
. Violent conflict re-erupted after rebel forces, accusing the government of failing to abide by its commitments, staged a coup in December 2012. The fact that CAR suffered renewed armed hostilities on the UN’s watch underscores the volatility of so-called post-conflict countries
Number of civil wars and reoccurrences:
1946-2013- 105 countries suffered from civil wars
Of these, more than half (fifty-nine countries) experienced a relapse into violent conflict—in some cases more than once—after peace had been established.
According to the World Bank, 90 per cent of all civil wars that erupted in the first decade of the twenty-first century were in countries that had previously experienced a civil war since 1945
likelihood of reoccurrence of violence based on longevity of peace
Caplan shows:
* From the end of the first year until approximately 5.5 years (2,000 peace days) the survivor estimates drop more sharply than after. This suggests that peace spells are more likely to break down within the first five years than in the following five years.
* After two years 99.5 per cent of all peace spells survive
After three years 82.8 per cent of the peace spells have survived.
After twelve years only about half of the peace spells have survived (50.2 per cent)
* the duration of the conflict and the battle deaths caused, are not significant in the explanation of the duration of peace.
Caplan on what the biggest determinant of violence reoccurrence is
the termination of the armed conflict
Peace is much less likely to break down after military victories when compared to settlements.
socio economic nature of country and likelihood of reoccurrence
Caplan shows:
If a country with the minimum income ($142) increases its income to the average income ($3,605) the hazard decreases by 18.1 per cent. If a country increases its income from the average to the maximum income ($37,123) the hazard decreases by 7.9 per cent
Caplan’s overall factors behind violence reoccurrence
economic state of country
nature of peace/ end to conflict
length of peace
more police
fewer troops
peace settlements with UNPKOs
UNPKO intervention during conflict
NOT length of conflict or number of deaths
example of socio economic background of country influencing peace
Caplan
the average rate of economic growth in Burundi, one of our case studies, was only 4.1 per cent in the period from 2004 to 2013
(compared with 7.4 per cent in Mozambique between 1993 and 2013; 9.8 per cent in Rwanda) may help to explain why violence in the lead-up to and following the 2015 presidential elections. While the situation in Burundi during this period had some characteristics of a civil war, it was more accurately described as a political crisis with widespread violence and human rights abuses.
role of police/ troopson peace
Caplan
observers appear to have no effect on the hazard of peace breaking down: troops increase the hazard and police lower it. Evaluating the change in the hazard by comparing no troops with the average number of troops (5,340) we find that the hazard increases by 48 per cent. When police forces are increased from zero to the mean (790) the hazard decreases by 43 per cent.
effect of peace settlements on peace
Caplan
for peace settlements without UNPKOs the hazard of peace ending is 167 per cent higher but for peace settlements that are supported by UNPKOs the hazard of peace ending is about 44 per cent lower.
Only 34 out of 205 peace episodes had a UNPKO, of which 20 were deployed after settlements.
For UN peacekeeping (i.e. no settlement) in general we find little evidence that the presence of UNPKOs has a stabilizing effect on peace. However, we do find some evidence that UNPKOs with a DDR- disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, component enhance the peace.
through the presence of a UNPKO the transition from minor conflicts to peace becomes more likely. This indicates that UNPKOs may be less about ‘keeping’ the peace than ‘preparing’ for peace.
example of UNPKO in peacekeeping (before settlement intervention)
In El Salvador, where there has been no recurrence of civil war, the UN deployed observers in support of a human rights agreement and before a ceasefire was in place. In El Salvador, the UN mission (ONUSAL) played a key role keeping implementation of the 1992 peace agreement on track, notably with regard to demobilization and demilitarization, arms control, and human rights verification
Liberal internationalism
the assumption that the surest foundation for peace, both within and between states, is market democracy, that is, a liberal democratic polity and a market-oriented economy.
Peacebuilding involves transplanting Western models of social, political, and economic organization into war-shattered states in order to control civil conflict: in other words, pacification through political and economic liberalization.
example of the use of international liberalism in peace building/keeping
o the World Bank, mirroring the policies of the United States Agency for International Development (U.S. AID), has since 1990 linked its financial assistance to political liberalization, arguing that the citizens of developing countries should have “a voice in government decisions and activities-not only through voting and representation but also through direct involvement in shaping and implementing programs that affect their lives and well-being.”
Paris and liberal internationalism main argument
Paradoxically, the very process of political and economic liberalization has generated destabilizing side effects in war-shattered states, hindering the consolidation of peace and in some cases even sparking renewed fighting
At best, the liberal internationalist approach to peacebuilding has generated unforeseen problems. At worst, peace- building missions have had the ”perverse effect” of undermining the very peace they were meant to buttress
examples of the failures of political liberalisation
In Rwanda and Angola, for example, political liberalization contributed to the resurgence of violence; in Bosnia, elections reinforced the separation of the parties rather than facilitating their reconciliation